EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.     

GEOLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC CONTROLS ON STREAMFLOWS IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents hydrological characteristics of the streamflow of the Dismal, Middle Loup, North Loup, and Cedar Rivers in the Nebraska Sand Hills and their relation to climate and ground water variation. Time series of streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and ground water levels from 1976 to 1998 were used to analyze trends and fluctuations of streamflow and to determine relationships among streamflow, climate, and the ground water system. An increase of precipitation and a decrease of maximum temperature over the period resulted in higher ground water levels and increased streamflow in the region. The high permeability of the soil and the thick unsaturated zone enhance precipitation recharge, limit surface runoff, and prevent ground water losses through evapotranspiration. Thus, an abundance of ground water is stored, supplying more than 86 percent of streamflow in the four rivers. Streamflow is generally more constant in the Sand Hills than elsewhere in the region. The four rivers present different hydrologic characteristics because of the spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic conditions. Streamflow of the Dismal and Middle Rivers, which are less sensitive to climatic variation, is much steadier than that of the North Loup and Cedar Rivers.     

Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

CLIMATE,SNOW COVER,GLACIERS, AND RUNOFF IN THE TIEN SHAN,CENTRAL ASIA1

ABSTRACT: The Pica Shan, a mountainous region located on the northern periphery of central Asia, has a wide range of climatic and hydrological conditions. On the basis of long term data from 348 meteorological and glaciological stations, the annual distribution of precipitation in different regions and elevational zones of the Tien Shan was calculated. Major climatic features are the entrance of moisture during spring-summer, small winter precipitation, decrease of precipitation towards the east and the center of the mountains or with distance up valleys, and increase of precipitation with altitude up to crest-lines of ranges. Annual total evaporation from snow can be 50–60 mm per year, reaching 30 percent of snow accumulation. Four main groups of rivers were identified: rivers with mainly snow nourishment, rivers with mainly glacial nourishment, rivers with mainly rain nourishment, and rivers with mainly ground water nourishment. Coefficient of runoff variation in Tien Shan's rivers is about 0.20, and coefficient of glacial runoff variation is about 0.15. Glacial runoff is 15–20 percent of the total volume of river runoff.     

RECIRCULATING WELLS: GROUND WATER REMEDIATION AND PROTECTION OF SURFACE WATER RESOURCES1

ABSTRACT: Several chlorinated solvent plumes threaten the sole‐source aquifer underlying the Massachusetts Military Reservation at the western end of Cape Cod. Sensitive surface water features including ponds, cranberry bogs, and coastal wetlands are hydraulically connected to the aquifer. For one of the plumes (CS‐10 the original remedy of 120 extraction and reinjection wells has the potential for significant disruption of surface water hydrology, through the localized drawdown and mounding of the water table. Recirculating wells with in‐well air stripping offer a cost‐effective alternative to conventional pump‐and‐treat technology that does not adversely affect the configuration of the water table. Pilot testing of a two well system, pumping 300 gpm, showed a capture radius of > 200 feet per well, in‐well trichloroethylene (TCE) removal efficiencies of 92 to 98 percent per recirculation cycle, an average of three recirculation cycles within the capture zone, and no measurable effect on water table elevations at any point within the recirculation/treatment zone. During 120 days of operation, the mean concentration of TCE in the treatment zone was reduced by 83 percent, from 1,111 μg/l to 184 μg/l. Full‐scale design projections indicate that 60 wells at an average spacing of 160 feet, having an aggregate recirculation 11 MGD, can contain the CS‐b plume without ground water extraction or adverse hydraulic effects on surface water resources. The estimated capital costs for such a system are about $7 million, and annual operations‐and‐maintenance costs should be about $1.4 million, 40 percent of those associated with a pump and treat system over a 20‐year period.     

Characterizing Runoff and Water Yield for Headwater Catchments in the Southern Sierra Nevada

In a Mediterranean climate where much of the precipitation falls during winter, snowpacks serve as the primary source of dry season runoff. Increased warming has led to significant changes in hydrology of the western United States. An important question in this context is how to best manage forested catchments for water and other ecosystem services? Answering this basic question requires detailed understanding of hydrologic functioning of these catchments. Here, we depict the differences in hydrologic response of 10 catchments. Size of the study catchments ranges from 50 to 475 ha, and they span between 1,782 and 2,373 m elevation in the rain‐snow transitional zone. Mean annual streamflow ranged from 281 to 408 mm in the low elevation Providence and 436 to 656 mm in the high elevation Bull catchments, resulting in a 49 mm streamflow increase per 100 m (R² = 0.79) elevation gain, despite similar precipitation across the 10 catchments. Although high elevation Bull catchments received significantly more precipitation as snow and thus experienced a delayed melt, this increase in streamflow with elevation was mainly due to a reduction in evapotranspiration (ET) with elevation (45 mm/100 m, R² = 0.65). The reduction in ET was attributed to decline in vegetation density, growing season, and atmospheric demand with increasing elevation. These findings suggest changes in streamflow in response to climate warming may likely depend on how vegetation responds to those changes in climate.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of Ground‐Water Discharge Estimates for Semiarid Shrublands1

Abstract: We proposed a step‐by‐step approach to quantify the sensitivity of ground‐water discharge by evapotranspiration (ET) to three categories of independent input variables. To illustrate the approach, we adopt a basic ground‐water discharge estimation model, in which the volume of ground water lost to ET was computed as the product of the ground‐water discharge rate and the associated area. The ground‐water discharge rate was assumed to equal the ET rate minus local precipitation. The objective of this study is to outline a step‐by‐step procedure to quantify the contributions from individual independent variable uncertainties to the uncertainty of total ground‐water discharge estimates; the independent variables include ET rates of individual ET units, areas associated with the ET units, and precipitation in each subbasin. The specific goal is to guide future characterization efforts by better targeting data collection for those variables most responsible for uncertainty in ground‐water discharge estimates. The influential independent variables to be included in the sensitivity analysis are first selected based on the physical characteristics and model structure. Both regression coefficients and standardized regression coefficients for the selected independent variables are calculated using the results from sampling‐based Monte Carlo simulations. Results illustrate that, while as many as 630 independent variables potentially contribute to the calculation of the total annual ground‐water discharge for the case study area, a selection of seven independent variables could be used to develop an accurate regression model, accounting for more than 96% of the total variance in ground‐water discharge. Results indicate that the variability of ET rate for moderately dense desert shrubland contributes to about 75% of the variance in the total ground‐water discharge estimates. These results point to a need to better quantify ET rates for moderately dense shrubland to reduce overall uncertainty in estimates of ground‐water discharge. While the approach proposed here uses a basic ground‐water discharge model taken from an earlier study, the procedure of quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity can be generalized to handle other types of environmental models involving large numbers of independent variables.     

Long‐Term Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation in Northwest California and Southwest Oregon, 1953‐2012

Using nonparametric Mann‐Kendall tests, we assessed long‐term (1953‐2012) trends in streamflow and precipitation in Northern California and Southern Oregon at 26 sites regulated by dams and 41 “unregulated” sites. Few (9%) sites had significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation, but September precipitation declined at 70% of sites. Site characteristics such as runoff type (groundwater, snow, or rain) and dam regulation influenced streamflow trends. Decreasing streamflow trends outnumbered increasing trends for most months except at regulated sites for May‐September. Summer (July‐September) streamflow declined at many sites, including 73% of unregulated sites in September. Applying a LOESS regression model of antecedent precipitation vs. average monthly streamflow, we evaluated the underlying streamflow trend caused by factors other than precipitation. Decreasing trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow substantially outnumbered increasing trends for most months. As with streamflow, groundwater‐dominated sites had a greater percent of declining trends in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow than other runoff types. The most pristine surface‐runoff‐dominated watersheds within the study area showed no decreases in precipitation‐adjusted streamflow during the summer months. These results suggest that streamflow decreases at other sites were likely due to more increased human withdrawals and vegetation changes than to climate factors other than precipitation quantity.     

Effects of Rainfall and Ground‐Water Pumping on Streamflow in Mākaha,O’ahu,Hawai’i1

Abstract: Land‐use/land‐cover changes in Mākaha valley have included the development of agriculture, residential dwellings, golf courses, potable water supply facilities, and the introduction of alien species. The impact of these changes on surface water and ground water resources in the valley is of concern. In this study, streamflow, rainfall, and ground‐water pumping data for the upper part of the Mākaha valley watershed were evaluated to identify corresponding trends and relationships. The results of this study indicate that streamflow declined during the ground‐water pumping period. Mean and median annual streamflow have declined by 42% (135 mm) and 56% (175 mm), respectively, and the mean number of dry stream days per year has increased from 8 to 125. Rainfall across the study area appears to have also declined though it is not clear whether the reduction in rainfall is responsible for all or part of the observed streamflow decline. Mean annual rainfall at one location in the study area declined by 14% (179 mm) and increased by 2% (48 mm) at a second location. Further study is needed to assess the effect of ground‐water pumping and to characterize the hydrologic cycle with respect to rainfall, infiltration, ground‐water recharge and flow in the study area, and stream base flow and storm flow.     

USE OF SOIL MOISTURE PROBES TO ESTIMATE GROUND WATER RECHARGE AT AN OIL SPILL SITE1

Soil moisture data collected using an automated data logging system were used to estimate ground water recharge at a crude oil spill research site near Bemidji, Minnesota. Three different soil moisture probes were tested in the laboratory as well as the field conditions of limited power supply and extreme weather typical of northern Minnesota: a self‐contained reflectometer probe, and two time domain reflectometry (TDR) probes, 30 and 50 cm long. Recharge was estimated using an unsaturated zone water balance method. Recharge estimates for 1999 using the laboratory calibrations were 13 to 30 percent greater than estimates based on the factory calibrations. Recharge indicated by the self‐contained probes was 170 percent to 210 percent greater than the estimates for the TDR probes regardless of calibration method. Results indicate that the anomalously large recharge estimates for the self‐contained probes are not the result of inaccurate measurements of volumetric moisture content, but result from the presence of crude oil, or borehole leakage. Of the probes tested, the 50 cm long TDR probe yielded recharge estimates that compared most favorably to estimates based on a method utilizing water table fluctuations. Recharge rates for this probe represented 24 to 27 percent of 1999 precipitation. Recharge based on the 30 cm long horizontal TDR probes was 29 to 37 percent of 1999 precipitation. By comparison, recharge based on the water table fluctuation method represented about 29 percent of precipitation.     

THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

MODELING ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However, direct measurement of forest evapotranspiration on a large basin or a regional scale is not possible. The objectives of this study were to develop an empirical model to estimate long‐term annual actual evapotranspiration (ART) for forested watersheds and to quantify spatial AET patterns across the southeast. A geographic information system (GIS) database including land cover, daily streamflow, and climate was developed using long term experimental and monitoring data from 39 forested watersheds across the region. Using the stepwise selection method implemented in a statistical modeling package, a long term annual AET model was constructed. The final multivariate linear model includes four independent variables—annual precipitation, watershed latitude, watershed elevation, and percentage of forest coverage. The model has an adjusted R² of 0.794 and is sufficient to predict long term annual ART for forested watersheds across the southeastern United States. The model developed by this study may be used to examine the spatial variability of water availability, estimate annual water loss from mesoscale watersheds, and project potential water yield change due to forest cover change.     

HYDROLOGY OF A DRAINED FORESTED POCOSIN WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: In order to assess the effects. of silvicultural and drainage practices on water quality it is necessary to understand their impacts on hydrology. The hydrology of a 340 ha artificially drained forested watershed in eastern North Carolina was studied for a five-year period (1988–92). Effects of soils, beds and changes in vegetation on water table depth, evapotranspiration (ET) and drainage outflows were analyzed. Total annual outflows from the watershed varied from 29 percent of the rainfall during the driest year (1990) when mostly mature trees were present to as much as 53 percent during a year of normal rainfall (1992) after about a third of the trees were harvested. Annual ET from the watershed, calculated as the difference between annual rainfall and outflow, varied from 76 percent of the calculated potential ET for a dry year to as much as 99 percent for a wet year. Average estimated ET was 58 percent of rainfall for the five-year period. Flow rates per unit area were consistently higher from a smaller harvested block (Block B - 82 ha) of the watershed than from the watershed as a whole. This is likely due to time lags, as drainage water flows through the ditch-canal network in the watershed, and to timber harvesting of the smaller gaged block.     

Evapotranspiration in the Meso‐Scale Forested Watersheds in Minjiang Valley,West China1

Abstract: Information on evapotranspiration (ET) can help us understand water balance, particularly in forested watersheds. Previous studies in China show that ET was relatively low (30‐40% of total precipitation) in the Minjiang Valley located in the upper reach of the Yangtze River Basin. However, this conclusion was derived from research on small‐scale watersheds (<100 km²). The objective of this paper was to present ET information on meso‐scale watersheds in the Minjiang Valley. Four meso‐scale watersheds (1,700‐5,600 km²) located in the Minjiang Valley were used to estimate ET using the water balance approach. We first generated forest vegetation variables (coniferous forest percentage, forest cover percentage, and derived forest vegetation index) using remote sensing data. Landsat 5 TM satellite images, acquired on June 26, 1994, were selected for the vegetation classification. Actual annual ET was calculated based on 11‐year estimated precipitation and measured streamflow data (1992‐2002). We also calculated potential ET (PET) using an improved Thornthwaite model for all four watersheds for the period of 1992‐1998. PET can provide additional information about potential capacity of water flux to atmosphere in the region. Seasonal (dry and rainy) PET and ET for all studied watersheds were also estimated for comparison purposes as the water balance approach, at shorter than annual scales, would likely provide inaccurate estimates of ET. The dominant vegetations in the Minjiang Valley were grasslands, conifer forests, and shrub‐lands. Our results confirmed that both ET and PET for three studied meso‐scale watersheds in the Minjiang Valley is relatively low (39.5‐43.8 and 28.2‐47.7% for ET and PET, respectively), with an exception of ET in the Yuzixi watershed being 71.1%. This result is generally consistent with previous research at small watershed scales. Furthermore, the low ET across various scales in the Minjiang Valley may be related to the unique deeply cut valley environment.     

AUTOMATED METHODS FOR ESTIMATING BASEFLOW AND GROUND WATER RECHARGE FROM STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: To quantify and model the natural ground water recharge process, six sites located in the midwest and eastern United States where previous water balance observations had been made were compared to computerized techniques to estimate: (1) base flow and (2) ground water recharge. Results from an existing automated digital filter technique for separating baseflow from daily streamflow records were compared to baseflow estimates made in the six water balance studies. Previous validation of automated baseflow separation techniques consisted only of comparisons with manual techniques. In this study, the automated digital filter technique was found to compare well with measured field estimates yielding a monthly coefficient of determination of 0.86. The recharge algorithm developed in this study is an automated derivation of the Rorabaugh hydrograph recession curve displacement method that utilizes daily streamflow. Comparison of annual recharge from field water balance measurements to those computed with the automated recession curve displacement method had coefficients of determination of 0.76 and predictive efficiencies of 71 percent. Monthly estimates showed more variation and are not advocated for use with this method. These techniques appear to be fast, reproducible methods for estimating baseflow and annual recharge and should be useful in regional modeling efforts and as a quick check on mass balance techniques for shallow water table aquifers.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUND WATER IN LANSING,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: Computer simulations involving general circulation models, a hydrologic modeling system, and a ground water flow model indicate potential impacts of selected climate change projections on ground water levels in the Lansing, Michigan, area. General circulation models developed by the Canadian Climate Centre and the Hadley Centre generated meteorology estimates for 1961 through 1990 (as a reference condition) and for the 20 years centered on 2030 (as a changed climate condition). Using these meteorology estimates, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory's hydrologic modeling system produced corresponding period streamflow simulations. Ground water recharge was estimated from the streamflow simulations and from variables derived from the general circulation models. The U.S. Geological Survey developed a numerical ground water flow model of the Saginaw and glacial aquifers in the Tri‐County region surrounding Lansing, Michigan. Model simulations, using the ground water recharge estimates, indicate changes in ground water levels. Within the Lansing area, simulated ground water levels in the Saginaw aquifer declined under the Canadian predictions and increased under the Hadley.     

Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.