Deflagration to detonation transition in a vapour cloud explosion in open but congested space: Large scale test

The paper reviews large scale experiments with various fuels in air where successful deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) took place. This includes a recent experiment disclosed in the Buncefield R&D program, where DDT developed in the propane/air mixture. The DDT occurred in branches of deciduous trees in a premixed stagnant mixture. An internal R&D investigation programme was initiated to better understand the phenomena. A large scale experiment in an open space with ethane air mixture is presented in the paper. The premixed mixture was ignited at the edge of the congested three-dimensional rigs which consisted of vertical and horizontal pipes. After ignition, the flame accelerated in the congestion and transitioned to detonation at the end of congestion. Stable detonation propagated through the remaining open and uncongested space.The flame acceleration process leading to DDT is scale dependent. It also depends on many parameters leading to a large investigation array and, significant cost. However, such R&D efforts aimed toward a safer plant design, i.e. the prevention of occurrence of a major accident, are a small fraction of a real accident cost.     

无起爆药雷管内管装药密度对燃烧转爆轰的影响研究

起爆药雷管生产中产生大量有毒废水,且其运输、贮存存在安全隐患。为克服这些困难,笔者自行制备无起爆药雷管。采用圆筒式金属内管中装填超细PETN(季戊四醇四硝酸酯),作为起爆元件,代替起爆药部分,研究装药密度对内管燃烧转爆轰(DDT)的影响。研究结果表明,在内管壁厚1～2 mm,内径Φ4.0 mm,长25 mm,装压密度为0.8～1.14 g/cm3的范围内,内管能可靠实现燃烧转爆轰。     

Comparison of explosion models for detonation onset estimation in large-scale unconfined vapor clouds

Although industrial denotations in semi-open and congested geometries are often neglected by many practitioners during risk assessment, recent studies have shown that industrial detonations might be more common than previously believed. Therefore, from the explosion safety perspective, it becomes imperative to better assess industrial detonation hazards to improve robustness of explosion mitigation design, emergency response procedures, and building siting evaluation. Having that in mind, this study aims to review current empirical vapor cloud explosion models, understand their limitations, and assess their capability to indicate detonation onset for elongated vapor clouds. Six models were evaluated in total: TNO Multi-Energy, Baker-Strehlow-Tang (BST), Congestion Assessment Method (CAM), Quest Model for Estimation of Flame Speed (QMEFS), Primary Explosion Site (PES), and Confinement Specific Correlation (CSC). Model estimations were compared with large-scale test data available in the open literature. The CAM model demonstrated good performance in indicating deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) for test conditions experiencing detonation onset without any modification in the methodology. Some suggestions are provided to improve simulation results from PES, BST and QMEFS.     

A violent,episodic vapour cloud explosion assessment: Deflagration-to-detonation transition

A large vapour cloud explosion (VCE) followed by a fire is one of the most dangerous and high consequence events that can occur in petrochemical facilities. The current process of safety practice in the industry in VCE assessment is to assume that all VCEs are deflagration. This assumption has been considered for nearly three decades. In recent years, major fire and VCE incidents in fuel storage depots gained considerable attention in extreme high explosion overpressure due to the transition from Deflagration to Detonation (DDT). Though the possibility of DDTs is lower than deflagrations, they have been identified in some of the most recent large-scale VCE incidents, including Buncefield (UK), 2005, San Juan explosion (US), 2009, and IOCL Jaipur (India), 2009 event. Such an incident established the need to understand not only VCE but also the importance of avoiding the escalation of minor incidents into much more devastating consequences.Despite decades of research, understanding of the fundamental physical mechanisms and governing factors of deflagration-to detonation transition (DDT) transition remains mostly elusive. An extreme multi-scale, multi-physics nature of this process uncertainly makes DDT one of the “Grand Challenge” problems of typical physics, and any significant developments toward its assured insistence would require revolutionary step forward in experiments, theory, and numerical modelling. Under certain circumstances, nevertheless, it is possible for DDT to occur, and this can be followed by a propagating detonation that quickly consumes the remaining detonable cloud. In a detonable cloud, a detonation creates the worst accident that can happen. Because detonation overpressures are much higher than those in a deflagration and continue through the entire detonable cloud, the damage from a DDT event is more severe. The consideration of detonation in hazard and risk assessment would identify new escalation potentials and recognize critical buildings impacted. This knowledge will allow more effective management of this hazard.The main conclusion from this paper is that detonations did occur in Jaipur accident at least part of the VCE accidents. The vapour cloud explosion could not have been caused by a deflagration alone, given the widespread occurrence of high overpressures and directional indicators in open uncongested areas containing the cloud. Additionally, the major incident has left many safety issues behind, which must be repeatedly addressed. It reveals that adequate safety measures were either underestimated or not accounted for seriously. This article highlights the aftermath of the IOCL Jaipur incident and addresses challenges put forward by it.     

Detonation transition criteria from the interaction of supersonic shock-flame complexes with different shaped obstacles

The present study is an experimental investigation of the last stages of the deflagration-to-detonation transition. A fast flame following a lead shock was generated by passing a detonation wave through a perforated plate. The shock flame complex then interacts with an obstacle of different shape. We study the influence of the obstacle shape on the transition mechanism to a detonation. The obstacles studied are a single round or square obstacle, a flat plate, a C-shaped and an H-shaped obstacle. The experiments were performed in a thin transparent channel permitting high speed schlieren visualization. Stoichiometric propane-oxygen was investigated at sub-atmospheric conditions. For each obstacle configuration, the initial pressure was changed to modify the flame burning velocity and the Mach number of the leading shock. The burning velocity prior to the interaction was measured experimentally from the displacement velocity of the flame in the videos. This required estimating the speed of the gas ahead of the flame. A linear correction to the speed immediately behind the lead shock was applied using the shock change equations and the measured pressure gradient behind the lead shock in order to account for the non-steadiness of the lead shock and viscous losses to the walls. Three main findings were that the obstacle shape had a minimal influence on the critical flame strength required for transition, although obstacles with a forward facing cavity were able to suppress the transition by isolating the re-initiation event inside the cavity. The main transition mechanism for all geometries was the enhancement of the flame burning velocity through the flame interaction with the shock reflected on the obstacle leading to Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. Finally, it was found that the flame burning velocity of the initial flame required for transition was closely approximated by the Chapman-Jouguet burning velocity. Consistent with the visual observations, this supports the view that transition is favored when the flame is in phase with the acoustic waves, and strong internal pressure waves can be amplified.     

Determination of the minimum ignition energy on the basis of a statistical approach

Based on existing MIE test results and new measurements, a statistical analysis for the MIE of hydrogen, ethene and propane is made by means of the logistic regression. The conditions necessary to carry out such an approach are discussed. It is shown that MIE values which are connected with a certain ignition probability could be determined adequately and lead to a more sophisticated result, also with regard to measurement uncertainties. This, in turn, leads to a better comparability and a higher informative content. At the same time, the MIEs of hydrogen, ethene and propane are reviewed. In doing so, a useful contribution to the discussion concerning the MIE of propane is made.     

Influence of different ignition delay times on the pressure rise rate in hybrid mixture explosions in the 20-L sphere

For the development of a standardized method for measuring the explosion safety characteristics of combustible hybrid dust/vapor mixtures, the influence of the ignition delay time needs to be investigated. The ignition delay time, defined as the time between the injection of dust and the activation of the ignition source, is related to the turbulence of the mixture and thus to the pressure rise rate. The ignition source for pure vapors, however, has to be activated in a quiescent atmosphere according to the standards. Nevertheless, when measuring the explosion safety characteristics of hybrid mixtures, it is important that the dust be in suspension around the igniter. Like pure dust/air mixtures, hybrid dust/vapor/air mixtures need to be ignited in a turbulent atmosphere to keep the dust in suspension.This work will therefore investigate the influence of ignition delay times on the severity of hybrid explosions. It was generally found that at shorter ignition delay times, (dp/dt)_ex increased due to higher turbulence and decreases as the dust sinks to the bottom of the 20 L-sphere. This effect is more pronounced for hybrid mixtures with higher vapor content compared to dust content.     

建构筑物周边爆破施工安全控制距离及分析方法研究

为研究在居民区附近开展大面积爆破施工的安全可行性以及安全控制距离标准,采用数值模拟方法,分析了地铁车辆段爆破施工对周边高压线及居民楼的影响,根据分析结果,给出了安全控制距离及关键控制指标,说明采用数值模拟的方法适用于类似工况的可行性。另外,研究发现,在居民楼附近进行地铁车辆段爆破施工风险较高,建议在距建构筑物100 m范围内采用静态爆破或机械开挖的方式进行施工。     

Towards an alternative criterion for the shipping safety of activated carbons: Part 4. The role of times to ignition

To the previously developed and implemented new criterion for the shipping safety of activated carbons is added a consideration of ignition times. It is shown that there is considerable support for the view that in the past shipments of such materials deemed on the basis of the IMCO/ISO test procedures to be subcritical have actually been supercritical, but that the long ignition times, exceeding voyage times, have prevented fire from developing.     

两种含水率水稻堆垛的着火与蔓延燃烧特性实验研究

粮食安全事关国计民生,近年来粮仓火灾多发,对于粮食火灾安全的基础性研究,显得愈加迫切。基于自主设计的贯穿气流条件下的散粒堆垛引燃与蔓延燃烧特性研究实验平台,针对两种含水率水稻,在不同贯穿气流条件下,开展了引燃与内部蔓延燃烧特性研究。结果表明,水稻含水率对其燃烧特性具有重要影响,即,对于13%含水率水稻,采用高温电热细棒插入堆垛内进行引燃45 min,并未引燃;然而,对于3%含水率水稻,仅引燃4 min,堆垛即形成迅速剧烈蔓延燃烧,中心区域燃烧温度高达1 200℃,最大蔓延速度约0.8 cm/s,引燃前的最大升温速率约200℃/min。此外,结果还表明,贯穿气流条件下,远离中心区域的四周水稻升温较慢且剩余一些最终未引燃,水稻堆垛内部主要呈向下且不断扩大的蔓延燃烧特征。最后,13%含水率水稻被灼热引火源作用结束后形成的碳化圈大小表明,机械通风气调作用对于灼热源的引燃作用具有一定的抑制作用。     

电焊熔珠对棉布和聚氨酯泡沫的引燃能力研究

研究了加载电压对电焊熔珠数目和粒径分布的影响,在模拟装置上实验了电焊对棉布、聚氨酯泡沫和纸张的引燃性能.结果表明,随着加载电压升高,电焊熔珠的数目逐渐减少,熔珠粒径逐渐增大,引燃能力逐渐增强.固体材料性质对电焊熔珠引燃能力也有很大影响,表面粗糙,易蓄热材料容易被点燃.电焊熔珠引燃棉布、聚氨酯泡沫和纸张的临界电压为37.5V、40V和45V.     

A quantitative correlation of evaluating the flame speed for the BST method in vapor cloud explosions

In recent decades, vapor cloud explosions (VCEs) have occurred frequently and resulted in numerous personnel injuries and large property losses. As a main concern in the petrochemical industry, it is of great importance to assess the consequence of VCEs. Currently, the TNT equivalency method (TNT EM), the TNO multi-energy method (TNO MEM), and the Baker-Strehlow-Tang (BST) method are widely used to estimate the blast load from VCEs. The TNO MEM and BST method determine the blast load from blast curves based on the class number and the flame speed, respectively. To quantitatively evaluate the flame speed for the BST method, the experimental data is adopted to validate the confinement specific correlation (CSC) for the determination of the class number in the TNO MEM. As a bridge, a quantitative evaluation correlation (QEC) between CSC correlation and the flame speed is established and the blast wave shapes corresponding to different flame speeds are proposed. CFD software FLACS was used to verify the quantitative correlation with the numerical models of three geometrical scales. It is found that the calculated flame speeds by the QEC are in good agreement with the simulated ones. A petrochemical plant is selected as a realistic scenario to analyze the TNT EM, TNO MEM, BST method and FLACS simulations in terms of the positive-phase side-on overpressure and impulse at different distances. Compared with the flame speed table, the predicted overpressure from BST curves determined by the proposed QEC is closer to that from FLACS and more conservative. Furthermore, the predicted results of different methods are compared with each other. It is found that the estimated positive-phase side-on overpressure and impulse by the TNO MEM are the largest, and the estimated impulse by the TNT EM is the smallest. Moreover, the estimated overpressure and impulse are larger in the higher reactivity gas.     

Numerical study on the spontaneous ignition of pressurized hydrogen release through a tube into air

Spontaneous ignition of pressurized hydrogen release through a tube into air is investigated using a modified version of the KIVA-3V CFD code. A mixture-averaged multi-component approach is used for accurate calculation of molecular transport. Autoignition and combustion chemistry is accounted for using a 21 step kinetic scheme. Ultra fine meshes are employed along with the Arbitrary Lagrangia–Eulerian (ALE) method to reduce false numerical diffusion. The study has demonstrated a possible mechanism for spontaneous ignition through molecular diffusion.

In the simulated scenario, the tube provided additional time to achieve a combustible mixture at the hydrogen–air contact surface. When the tube was sufficiently long under certain release pressure, autoignition would initiate inside the tube at the contact surface due to mass and energy exchange between low temperature hydrogen and shock-heated air through molecular diffusion. Following further development of the hydrogen jet downstream, the contact surface became distorted. Turbulence plays an important role for hydrogen/air mixing in the immediate vicinity of this distorted contact surface and led the initial laminar flame to transit into a stable turbulent flame.     

LNG船舶锚泊安全距离定量计算建模

为保障液化天然气船舶(LNG船舶)锚泊安全,提出了一种基于船舶漂移运动和船舶碰撞风险的锚泊安全距离计算方法.首先,结合船舶运动数学模型,通过蒙特卡洛模拟LNG船舶走锚漂移运动,得出走锚漂移方向概率密度函数,从而确定船舶走锚漂移横向、纵向距离;同时,结合船舶碰撞概率模型、船舶碰撞损害模型和LNG火灾模型,建立LNG船舶碰撞风险模型,确定满足碰撞概率和风险可接受的安全距离.最后,比较两种模型计算结果,并取其较大值作为LNG船舶锚泊安全距离.结果表明,LNG船锚泊安全距离不仅与环境水域的风、流情况有关,还与附近水域内船舶大小及速度有关.建议交通管理中需结合水域环境特征和水域船舶特点确定LNG船舶的锚泊安全距离.     

配电线路补偿的安全性探讨

文章通过对我国地区10kV及以下配电线路无功补偿的现状,并结合有关数据,对配电线路无功补偿的必要性、补偿位置选择进行了分析。提出提高中、低压配电网功率因数,能够稳定提高线路电路输送能力和供电质量,并且能够大大降低线路损耗,既具有明显的社会和经济效益,也具有现实意义。     

条件价值法评估生命价值的应用探讨

分别对条件价值法评估生命价值的经济学理论基础和研究进展进行阐述;分析条件价值法应用于生命价值评估可能会产生的偏差有假想偏差、策略偏差和信息偏差,并探讨支付意愿与受偿意愿、诱导技术、风险变化率对其结果有效性的影响。根据文献分析结果,结合前期应用条件价值法评估生命价值实证研究的成果,就如何提高条件价值法评估生命价值结果的可靠性和有效性给出实证研究设计方案,通过总体设计框架、工作环境风险认知调查、工作风险支付意愿的设计、社会经济信息变量的设置、调查准备与预调查、样本容量及抽样设计、数据统计分析等多个方面的优化设计可以保障评估生命价值的有效性和可靠性。     

A note on the effectiveness of the house-arrest alternative for motivating DWI offenders to install ignition interlocks

Introduction

The effectiveness of ignition interlocks at reducing drunk driving has been limited by the ability of driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) offenders to avoid court orders to install the devices.

Methods

In a pilot program in New Mexico, four Santa Fe County judges imposed home confinement (via electronic monitoring bracelets) on offenders who claimed to have no car or no intention to drive. Interlock installation rates for Santa Fe County were compared with all other counties in New Mexico over a 2-year program and 2-year post-program period.

Results

During the two program years, 70% of the drivers convicted of DWI in Santa Fe County installed interlocks, compared to only 17% in the other counties, but when the program was terminated, the Santa Fe installation rate fell by 18.8 percentage points.

Summary

Mandating the alternative sanction of house arrest led to the highest reported interlock installation rate for DWI offenders.

Impact on Industry

Impaired driving is a substantial expense to employers, particularly when it bars driving that interferes with employment. Interlocks provide a method of protecting the public while permitting the offender to drive sober. This study was directed at increasing interlock use by DWI offenders.     

一种地铁综合监控系统安全性分析方法研究

地铁综合监控系统的安全直接影响整个地铁系统的安全,根据地铁综合监控系统的特点建立该系统的安全性评价模型,将层次分析法和模糊综合评判法相结合用于地铁综合监控系统的安全性分析。用层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,模糊综合评判法评定地铁综合监控系统的安全等级。该评定方法能较好地反映地铁综合监控系统的实际安全状况,可为地铁的安全运营提供决策依据,并且评价结果简单直观。     

人的生命价值评估方法述评

评估生命价值最常用的两种方法是人力资本法和支付意愿法。用人力资本法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人未来的生产能力来计量,而用支付意愿法评估生命价值的前提是人的生命可以用一个人为降低死亡风险而愿意支付的货币金额来计量。支付意愿法又包括工资—风险法、消费市场法和条件价值法3种类型。工资—风险法通过分析一个人的工资与其工作风险之间的关系来估算生命价值;消费市场法关注的是人们在其进行消费决策时,在风险与价格之间的权衡;而条件价值法则是给定一个假定情景,请被访者对货币和风险进行直接权衡来估算生命价值。笔者对国内外生命价值评估研究进行述评,指出了各种评估方法的优缺点。支付意愿法已成为国外学者评估生命价值的主流方法,学习借鉴国外的研究经验,将这一方法运用于我国的生命价值评估研究是今后国内研究的一个方向。     

煤与瓦斯突出预测的支持向量机(SVM)模型

基于支持向量机(SVM)分类算法,考虑影响煤与瓦斯突出的主要因素,建立了煤与瓦斯突出预测的SVM模型。该模型选取开采深度、瓦斯压力、瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数以及地质破坏程度5个指标作为模型输入量,同时将煤与瓦斯突出程度划分为无突出、小型突出、中型突出和大型突出4个等级,进而使其评判结果更为细化。以实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应判别函数对待判样本进行预测。通过算例分析,表明该模型的方法对煤与瓦斯突出预测的合理性与有效性,可以在实际工程中推广。