大气污染物源解析技术模型及应用探讨

大气对于民众身体健康、生态环境质量等有着直接性影响,而大气污染的治理属于一项长期性工程,需要有关部门采用最合适的监测、检测方法。本文将从大气污染物源解析技术的概述角度出发,对源解析方法的优劣势进行对比,就受体模型法、排放源清单法以及扩散模型法等常用源解析技术的方法、模型进行介绍,以期为有关部门提供可靠参考。     

石化企业对大气细颗粒物PM_(2.5)的贡献源研究

为研究石化企业工艺流程中对周围环境大气细颗粒物有贡献的生产单元及其源强情况,以某千万吨级石化企业为研究对象,根据细颗粒物的形成机理,分别识别出了该石化企业内所有形成一次细颗粒物的排放源、参与形成二次细颗粒物的无机以及有机前体污染物源。同时分析得出了石化企业生产的油品质量也对其周围大气细颗粒物的质量浓度高低有重要的决定作用。     

应用多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型预测大气环境质量

根据北京市市区自然环境、污染气象特征、大气环境过程及区域污染源分布等现有信息,建立了用于大气环境质量预测的多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型,对北京市市区采暖季(2002年1月)和非采暖季(2002年8月)特征污染物SO2和PM10的质量浓度进行了预测.将预测结果与地面监测值比较分析后发现,多维多箱与高斯模型结合的复合模型预测大气环境质量产生的相对误差在25%以内.     

基于Matlab软件的突发事故水质解析模型与应用

为快速分析突发性水污染事故可能造成的水环境影响,建立了基于Matlab软件的突发事故水质解析模型。以浙江省某河流为例,分析了上游突发水污染事故形成的污染团在河流中的迁移扩散规律、影响范围、事故下游各断面水质变化过程以及取水口等敏感点的超标时间及超标程度。同时详细分析了近岸和远岸边界对污染物反射所造成的浓度叠加影响、合理的边界反射次数,以及水流流速、扩散系数、降解系数等主要水文水质参数对污染团扩散的影响。     

盘龙江水及沉积物中酚类EDCs的污染特征及源解析

研究了云贵高原城市河流盘龙江水及沉积物中酚类内分泌干扰物(Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals,EDCs)的污染特征及源解析,阐明了酚类EDCs的含量水平、分布特征、季节变化及污染来源,并估算了其排放到滇池的量。结果表明,盘龙江水及沉积物中普遍检出了酚类EDCs,其含量沿程变化呈现倒"W"型,枯水期的残留水平高于丰水期。除松华坝水库外,盘龙江水中的∑EDCs质量浓度为70~429 ng/L,沉积物中质量比为16~813 ng/g dw(干重),每年输入滇池的量约为43 kg/a,NP2EO、NP1EO和BPA是主要的酚类EDCs。NP2EO、NP1EO、4-NP、BPA、4-CP和4-tOP在水中的质量浓度分别达到202 ng/L、154 ng/L、17 ng/L、79 ng/L、3.3ng/L和4.7 ng/L,在沉积物中质量比分别达到352 ng/g dw、316 ng/g dw、18 ng/g dw、124 ng/g dw、5.5 ng/g dw和14 ng/g dw。酚类EDCs在水和沉积物中的含量具有较好的相关性,水体自净过程对污染起到了一定的缓解作用。与其他地区河流相比,盘龙江中酚类EDCs的残留处于中等偏下水平。酚类EDCs在市区河段含量明显高于郊区段,对该区域内的水生生物构成了潜在危害。     

公共建筑人群疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型研究*

为寻找公共建筑人群疏散极端负荷流线,构建疏散流线负荷的拓扑解析模型。首先,通过分析建筑空间布局的构成要素,引入移动空间、障碍空间、移动节点等概念,构建公共建筑疏散空间的拓扑网络;其次,定义节点最迟疏散结束时刻、节点最早疏散开始时刻等时间参数,以某时刻作为初始状态,计算疏散网络节点时差,构建极端负荷流线的拓扑解析模型,探析公共建筑人群疏散流线拥堵特征;最后,采用Agent技术对某会展中心人群疏散流线负荷模型进行仿真分析。研究结果表明:流线的拓扑网络节点总时差反映了流线负荷分布特征,人群疏散的极端负荷流线符合拓扑解析模型结果,能为公共建筑人群疏散方案的制定提供理论依据。     

大气扩散计算流体力学模型综合评估方法研究

模型评估方法研究是模型研发工作的重要组成部分。基于科学性验证与统计性确认提出了大气扩散CFD模型的综合确认评估方法,通过示例的方式展示了方法的使用效果。综合确认评估方法可以提高模型筛选的速度,降低统计性评估对确认性试验数据的需求量,从总体上提高模型确认的效率。评估理论的研究有助于提高基于模型的大气扩散研究的准确性,也有利于高精度模型和试验的设计、开发与遴选。     

一种基于层次分析法的危险化学品源安全评价综合模型

危险化学品源的安全评价是安全生产管理中的一项重要内容.目前用于危险化学品源安全评价与分级的常用方法有后果分析法、道指数法、蒙德指数法以及使用临界系数判别重大危险源的方法等.在实际应用中,单独使用某一方法时,由于存在各种片面性问题而得不到满意的评价结果; 几种方法同时使用时,其评价指标、评价结果以及结果的形式又会互相冲突.为解决上述问题,建立了基于层次分析法的综合评价模型.首先,根据安全评价要求构建3层次的评价体系,在各层次中构造判断矩阵,并计算4种常用方法相对综合评价模型的置信度; 其次,对各方法统一危险分级标准,均采用危险分数划定危险级别,并取各危险分数的加权平均值--综合危险分数作为综合评价模型下的危险源分级标准.采用综合评价模型可消除单一方法进行评价时的片面性和偏差,同时,评价结果的一致化使得判断危险化学品源的危险级别以及由此采取相应级别的管理措施成为可能,将更有利于实际安全生产管理指导.     

一种基于层次分析法的危险化学品源安全评价综合模型

危险化学品源的安全评价是安全生产管理中的一项重要内容。目前用于危险化学品源安全评价与分级的常用方法有后果分析法、道指数法、蒙德指数法以及使用临界系数判别重大危险源的方法等。在实际应用中,单独使用某一方法时,由于存在各种片面性问题而得不到满意的评价结果;几种方法同时使用时,其评价指标、评价结果以及结果的形式又会互相冲突。为解决上述问题,建立了基于层次分析法的综合评价模型。首先,根据安全评价要求构建3层次的评价体系,在各层次中构造判断矩阵,并计算4种常用方法相对综合评价模型的置信度;其次,对各方法统一危险分级标准,均采用危险分数划定危险级别,并取各危险分数的加权平均值——综合危险分数作为综合评价模型下的危险源分级标准。采用综合评价模型可消除单一方法进行评价时的片面性和偏差,同时,评价结果的一致化使得判断危险化学品源的危险级别以及由此采取相应级别的管理措施成为可能,将更有利于实际安全生产管理指导。     

“三线一单”大气管控单元划分法在上海的应用

本研究基于“三线一单”编制技术要求计算了上海市2017年大气污染物排放量,其中SO2排放量为6. 28万吨、NOX排放量为31. 50万吨、VOCs排放量为33. 38万吨、一次PM2. 5排放量为5. 09万吨、NH3的排放量为8. 17万吨。根据上海市污染源排放特征,划分了大气环境管控单元,其中包括6个大气优先保护区、115个大气重点管控区以及1个大气环境一般管控区,其中大气重点管控区分为高排放区和受体敏感区。     

武汉市某区域大气颗粒物的测定与分析

采用电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱法对TSP环境样品和尘源样品中的S、Si、Ti、Al、As、Ca、Pb、V等30余个元素组份进行分析并计算出各元素的含量,得到本区域大气环境TSP和污染尘源元素特征谱,并通过比较微波消解与加热消解两种方法的优劣,确定出较适应消解方法.结果表明,该区域中的A区污染源主要来自道路交通尘源和土壤尘源,B区污染源来自土壤尘源和建筑尘源.     

Risk analysis of a cross-regional toxic chemical disaster by using the integrated mesoscale and microscale consequence analysis model

The rapidly growing capacity and scale of the world's petrochemical industries have forced many plants to have an even larger amount of hazardous substances. Once a serious leak occurs, the outcome of the effect zone could be very large or even uncontrollable just like the Bhopal disaster. In order to assess the risk of a cross-regional damage, this study aims to develop a model that can combine the benefits of both CFD model of the microscale simulation and the Gaussian dispersion model of the mesoscale simulation.The developed integrated model is employed on a toxic chemical tank leak accident of a process plant within an industrial park in order to explore the consequences and the risk of the toxic gas dispersion on three different scopes; one is the accident site, the second is the long-distance transmission route of the mesoscale area and the third is a target city. According to the simulation's results, it is obvious that the complexity of the structure surrounding the leaking tank will eventually affect the maximum ground concentration, the cloud shapes and cloud dilution rate, while the released gas is under dispersion. On the other hand, since the simple Gaussian dispersion model doesn't consider the above impacts, its calculation results will have many differences as compared to the realistic situation. This integrated model can be used as a tool for estimating the risk on a microscale or mesoscale areas and it can produce better results when an environmental impact analysis is required for a larger hazardous chemical process.     

PS-InSAR监测矿区建筑物及道路动态沉降安全分析*

针对矿山井下开采引发的地表沉降,提出1种结合时序相干系数阈值、振幅离差指数阈值和强度信息阈值的三重阈值法PS点识别方法的PS-InSAR技术。基于哨兵1号A星（Sentinel-1A）的雷达图像,依据三重阈值法识别到淮北市郊一煤矿311工作面采区内重要建筑物和道路的PS点,分别分析开采沉陷阶段的地表沉降活跃期（2018年7月14日—2019年9月7日）和该工作面停采2个月后地表沉陷衰退期（2019年9月7日—2021年1月23日）的动态沉降速率、沉降大小。研究结果表明:三重阈值法能筛选出更有效的PS点,可提高PS点识别与PS-InSAR技术监测精度,说明利用三重阈值法识别PS点的PS-InSAR技术监测矿区建筑物及道路安全具有可行性。     

Prediction of vehicle crashes by drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations in Korea using a zero-inflated negative binomial model

Aims: Traffic safety is a significant public health challenge, and vehicle crashes account for the majority of injuries. This study aims to identify whether drivers' characteristics and past traffic violations may predict vehicle crashes in Korea.

Methods: A total of 500,000 drivers were randomly selected from the 11.6 million driver records of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs in Korea. Records of traffic crashes were obtained from the archives of the Korea Insurance Development Institute. After matching the past violation history for the period 2004–2005 with the number of crashes in year 2006, a total of 488,139 observations were used for the analysis. Zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine the incident risk ratio (IRR) of vehicle crashes by past violations of individual drivers. The included covariates were driver's age, gender, district of residence, vehicle choice, and driving experience.

Results: Drivers violating (1) a hit-and-run or drunk driving regulation at least once and (2) a signal, central line, or speed regulation more than once had a higher risk of a vehicle crash with respective IRRs of 1.06 and 1.15. Furthermore, female gender, a younger age, fewer years of driving experience, and middle-sized vehicles were all significantly associated with a higher likelihood of vehicle crashes.

Conclusions: Drivers' demographic characteristics and past traffic violations could predict vehicle crashes in Korea. Greater resources should be assigned to the provision of traffic safety education programs for the high-risk driver groups.     

断层带和底板注浆模拟及其防水分析

考虑回采过程断层与工作面底板沟通裂隙对工作面采场底板突水的影响,对矿井9603工作面底板及断层采取注浆防水措施.为了准确分析注浆技术的效果,运用弹塑性本构模型、Drucker-Prager准则和ANSYS数值软件,分析了9603工作面在注浆前后不同推进距离下沿工作面走向的应变区域分布.结果表明,岩层应变总体规律为随工作面推进应变范围逐渐扩大,断层与底板之间裂隙沟通程度加强,且分布于开挖煤层两侧及断层带.注浆前,底板斜交及垂直裂隙与断层先存裂隙初步沟通发生于工作面推进80 m的位置,完全沟通发生在工作面推进100 m的位置;注浆后,由于岩层在凝固浆液的影响下,弹性模量大大降低,抗张拉强度得到加强,底板斜交及垂直裂隙与断层先存裂隙的初步沟通和完全沟通分别延至工作面推进120 m的位置和150m的位置.     

连云港公众对核电和火电风险感知的比较分析

研究造成不同人群对核电和火电风险感知差异的关键因素,并分析不同人群对这2种风险支付意愿(WTP)的差别.采用公众问卷调研法及多元统计法分析公众对核电和火电的风险感知.结果表明,年龄为30～39岁的人群以及教育程度为大专和研究生学历的人群对核电和火电的风险感知差别度具有显著差异性,同时也发现政府在人们对比核电和火电风险感知程度时扮演重要角色,即对政府信任度高的人对核电的风险感知度相对较低.风险支付意愿分析表明,不同分类人群对核电和火电风险的WTP值总体趋势一致,即女性高于男性,低龄组和高龄组高于中龄组,无业者和家庭主妇高于有固定职业者,受中等教育者高于受低等和高等教育者,30 000～50 000元年薪者高于其他年薪段人,外地游客高于移居者和本土居民.本研究为政府等决策机构选择有效目标人群提供了参考依据.     

Validation of a booted finite element model of the WIAMan ATD lower limb in component and whole-body vertical loading impacts with an assessment of the boot influence model on response

Objective: A novel anthropomorphic test device (ATD) representative of the 50th percentile male soldier is being developed to predict injuries to a vehicle occupant during an underbody blast (UBB). The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model of the ATD lower limb outfitted with a military combat boot and to insert the validated lower limb into a model of the full ATD and simulate vertical loading experiments.

Methods: A Belleville desert combat boot model was assigned contacts and material properties based on previous experiments. The boot model was fit to a previously developed model of the barefoot ATD. Validation was performed through 6 matched pair component tests conducted on the Vertically Accelerated Loads Transfer System (VALTS). The load transfer capabilities of the FE model were assessed along with the force-mitigating properties of the boot. The booted lower limb subassembly was then incorporated into a whole-body model of the ATD. Two whole-body VALTS experiments were simulated to evaluate lower limb performance in the whole body.

Results: The lower limb model accurately predicted axial loads measured at heel, tibia, and knee load cells during matched pair component tests. Forces in booted simulations were compared to unbooted simulations and an amount of mitigation similar to that of experiments was observed. In a whole-body loading environment, the model kinematics match those recorded in experiments. The shape and magnitude of experimental force–time curves were accurately predicted by the model. Correlation between the experiments and simulations was backed up by high objective rating scores for all experiments.

Conclusion: The booted lower limb model is accurate in its ability to articulate and transfer loads similar to the physical dummy in simulated underbody loading experiments. The performance of the model leads to the recommendation to use it appropriately as an alternative to costly ATD experiments.     

Performance assessment and optimization of HSE management systems with human error and ambiguity by an integrated fuzzy multivariate approach in a large conventional power plant manufacturer

This study presents an integrated approach performance assessment and optimization of integrated health safety environment (HSE) management system-based on fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA) considering the possible human error and data vagueness in a conventional power plant manufacturer. In doing so, it corresponds and integrates its registered HSE-MS with OHSAS 18001:2007 and ISO 14001:2004 to evaluate multiple inputs and outputs of over 35 subsidiary HSE divisions with parallel mission and objectives simultaneously. The HSE divisions of each subsidiary are considered as decision making units (DMUs). Not only doing this refutable method rank their relevant performance efficiencies in certain and uncertain conditions, but also it determines efficient target indices for each DMU, and could assure continuous improvement in the organization. This would help managers to identify the areas of strengths and weaknesses in their HSE management system and set improvement target plan for the related HSE management system. In this model based on Deming’s continuous improvement cycle, managers are also able to evaluate the prevailing strengths and weaknesses and target their improvement strategies at the relevant stages of the cycle.