Global Warming, Human Population Pressure, and Viability of the World's Smallest Butterfly

Abstract:  The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty-first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly, the Sinai baton blue ( Pseudophilotes sinaicus ), as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species, it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case, livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming, grazing, and plant collection, our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming, the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly, implying that there may be an annual average temperature, specific to each endangered species, above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast, there was no such threshold of grazing pressure—the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing, however, decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing, suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels, the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change.     

Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Diversity and Distribution of Stream Insects in South Korea

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two‐thirds of Odonata and one‐third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. Impacto Potencial del Calentamiento Global sobre la Diversidad y la Distribución de Insectos de Arroyo en Corea del Sur     

As the world warms: rising seas, coastal archaeology, and the erosion of maritime history

The human history of coastal regions around the world has been under assault for decades, from forces that include dam building, coastal modifications, the destruction of wetlands, marine erosion, population growth and rampant development, looting, and other processes. Global warming will exacerbate the destruction of cultural resources in coastal zones through accelerated sea level rise, intensified storm cycles, and related coastal erosion. Although average global sea levels have been rising for ∼20,000 years, they slowed dramatically about 7,000 years ago. Rates of sea level rise now appear to be increasing rapidly due to growing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Global warming and rising seas, especially when combined with population growth and the implementation of measures designed to protect endangered coastal properties, threaten the deep maritime history of human migrations, settlement, and adaptations in coastal areas around the world. Ranging in age from the mid-Pleistocene to recent historic times, coastal archaeological sites contain invaluable data on ancient coastal societies, fisheries, and ecosystems. Archaeologists, historians, and other cultural resource managers must do more to anticipate, evaluate, and mitigate the effects of global warming, sea level rise, and coastal erosion on the long history of human maritime cultures.     

高山植物对全球气候变暖的响应研究进展

高山地区被认为是对全球气候变化最敏感的区域之一,气候变暖导致高山生境内生物与非生物环境因子发生不同程度的改变,从而引起高山植物从不同层面作出不同的变化或响应.综述了高山及亚高山高海拔生境内,植物从宏观生态系统层面到微观个体生理层面对全球气候变化进行响应的研究进展.植物由个体自身的生理及形态上产生不同响应,逐步经过"瀑布式上升效应(Cascade effects)",最后引起整个高山生态系统的转变.受局地差异性及物种差异性影响,生物多样性在不同高山地区呈现出或是增加或是减少的趋势;林线及植被向高纬度、高海拔地区扩张;植物间相互关系由协作转向中性乃至竞争;植物物候、繁殖、生物量生产、光合作用、年轮生长、营养结构等方面均呈现出不同的响应模式.这些从微观到宏观的不同响应模式,最终将引起高山生态系统在结构、功能上的改变,进而在很大范围上威胁到高山植物的生存与发展.最后提出该领域未来的研究重点.参147     

中国降水量高度效应及全球升温对它的影响

利用中国气象中心160站点的实际观察资料,对中国半个世纪的降水变化进行了系统分析,发现中国的夏季降水量与海拔高度存在着很好的反相关关系;同时,全球升温使得降水量的高度效应增强,主要表现为高海拔降水量海拔效应明显增强,这主要是由全球升温引起环流系统增强所引起的.     

Climate Change, Elevational Range Shifts, and Bird Extinctions

Abstract:  Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8° C, projected a best guess of 400–550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1° C warming) to 30.0% (6.4° C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100–500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.     

Pleistocene Reindeer and Global Warming

Abstract:  Current concerns for the future of reindeer and caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ) in the far north under conditions of global warming focus on the increased energetic and predation costs associated with warmer winters and on vegetation change and increased insect harassment caused by warmer summers. At the Grotte XVI archaeological site (Dordogne, southwestern France), episodes of summer warming between about 36,000 and 12,000 radiocarbon years ago appear to be associated with lowered relative abundances of reindeer. As the Pleistocene ended and summer temperatures climbed higher, reindeer were extirpated from southern France. A similar phenomenon appears to have occurred here during the prior Eemian interglacial. These records suggest that increased summer temperatures under conditions of global warming may have a direct negative effect on reindeer and caribou populations, including a northward displacement of their southern distributional boundary.     

Optimal learning on climate change: Why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a directional change generates information on the causes of global warming. Since the optimal policy depends upon these causes, they are valuable to know. Although increasing emissions would also generate information, that option is inferior due its irreversibility. We show that optimality can even imply that climate skeptics should actually argue for lower emissions than believers.     

Airborne black carbon variations during the COVID-19 lockdown in the Yangtze River Delta megacities suggest actions to curb global warming

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Airborne black carbon is a strong warming component of the atmosphere. Therefore, curbing black carbon emissions should slow down global warming. The 2019...     

Innovation and the dynamics of global warming

Global warming and the carbon cycle are a dynamic system with positive feedbacks. Fossil fuels are exhaustible resources. These two facts mean that innovation in clean energy technology, rather than mitigating global warming, can lead to a permanently higher temperature path. This paper explores the impact of innovation in the simplest model linking the economic theory of exhaustible resources with positive feedback dynamics in the carbon cycle.     

The Future of Tropical Species on a Warmer Planet

Abstract: Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed‐canopy forest today. Temperature‐sensitive species might extend their ranges to cool refuges, defined here as areas where temperatures projected for 2100 match 1960s temperatures in the modern range. Distances to such cool refuges are greatest for equatorial species and are particularly large for key tropical forest areas including the Amazon and Congo River Basins, West Africa, and the upper elevations of many tropical mountains. In sum, tropical species are likely to be particularly sensitive to global warming because they are adapted to limited geographic and seasonal variation in temperature, already lived at or near the highest temperatures on Earth before global warming began, and are often isolated from cool refuges. To illustrate these three points, we examined the distributions and habitat associations of all extant mammal species. The distance to the nearest cool refuge exceeded 1000 km for more than 20% of the tropical and less than 4% of the extratropical species with small ranges. The biological impact of global warming is likely to be as severe in the tropics as at temperate and boreal latitudes.     

Predicting Interactions among Fishing,Ocean Warming,and Ocean Acidification in a Marine System with Whole‐Ecosystem Models

An important challenge for conservation is a quantitative understanding of how multiple human stressors will interact to mitigate or exacerbate global environmental change at a community or ecosystem level. We explored the interaction effects of fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification over time on 60 functional groups of species in the southeastern Australian marine ecosystem. We tracked changes in relative biomass within a coupled dynamic whole‐ecosystem modeling framework that included the biophysical system, human effects, socioeconomics, and management evaluation. We estimated the individual, additive, and interactive effects on the ecosystem and for five community groups (top predators, fishes, benthic invertebrates, plankton, and primary producers). We calculated the size and direction of interaction effects with an additive null model and interpreted results as synergistic (amplified stress), additive (no additional stress), or antagonistic (reduced stress). Individually, only ocean acidification had a negative effect on total biomass. Fishing and ocean warming and ocean warming with ocean acidification had an additive effect on biomass. Adding fishing to ocean warming and ocean acidification significantly changed the direction and magnitude of the interaction effect to a synergistic response on biomass. The interaction effect depended on the response level examined (ecosystem vs. community). For communities, the size, direction, and type of interaction effect varied depending on the combination of stressors. Top predator and fish biomass had a synergistic response to the interaction of all three stressors, whereas biomass of benthic invertebrates responded antagonistically. With our approach, we were able to identify the regional effects of fishing on the size and direction of the interacting effects of ocean warming and ocean acidification. Predicción de Interacciones entre Pesca, Calentamiento de Océanos y Acidificación de Océanos en un Sistema Marino con Modelos de Ecosistemas Completos     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化

利用三江平原17个站1951-2000年的平均最高、最低气温和气温日较差资料，采用线性倾向估计和几种突变检测方法，定量研究了最高、最低气温和气温日较差变化趋势的空间分布，比较了最高、最低气温变化特征的差异性。结合前期的相关研究结果，对研究区20世纪70年代中期以来的三江平原气候变暖过程和成因有了进一步的认识。1975—2000年的变暖时期主要由两个阶段构成：1975—1987年为第一阶段，以夜间升温为主要特征，相对应的是气温日较差明显减小，超过一定面积的湿地开垦是该阶段气候变暖的主要驱动力之一；1987-2000年为第二阶段，以白天和夜间同时升温且幅度相当，气温日较差没有明显的变化趋势为特点，这一阶段的升温是对全球气候变暖同步的区域响应。     

土壤微生物呼吸热适应性与微生物群落及多样性对全球气候变化响应研究

土壤微生物呼吸热适应性被认为是决定陆地生态系统对全球变暖反馈作用的潜在重要机制,可能显著改变未来的气候变化趋势,然而,土壤微生物群落结构变化如何引起土壤微生物呼吸热适应性的研究目前尚存争议.该文针对气候变化对土壤微生物呼吸的影响研究,梳理了当前对土壤微生物呼吸的热适应性是否存在的争议和不同观点与结论,综述了气候变化对土...     

Coccolithophorids, Nutrients and the Greenhouse Effect

Despite the fact that coccolithophorids such as Emiliania huxleyi are suspected to play an important role in carbon-cycling, there are few data from which to deduce how these organisms may respond to CO₂-induced global warming. the nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient physiology of these organisms, together with its interaction with photosynthesis, needs to be studied especially in connection with the selection for coccolith forming individuals and the quantity and quality of the CaCO₃ deposited in the coccoliths. Without such data, it will not be possible to model the contributions that these microalgae may play in arresting the increase in levels of atmospheric CO₂.     

Enhanced photocatalytic reduction of carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide by electric field generation and defect engineering in TiO2

Environmental Chemistry Letters - Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and rising fossil fuel consumption have already resulted in global warming and energy crisis. Therefore, conversion of CO2 into...     

Experimental warming, not grazing, decreases rangeland quality on the Tibetan Plateau.

We investigated experimental warming and simulated grazing (clipping) effects on rangeland quality, as indicated by vegetation production and nutritive quality, in winter-grazed meadows and summer-grazed shrublands on the Tibetan Plateau, a rangeland system experiencing climatic and pastoral land use changes. Warming decreased total aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) by 40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at the meadow habitats and decreased palatable ANPP (total ANPP minus non-palatable forb ANPP) by 10 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) at both habitats. The decreased production of the medicinal forb Gentiana straminea and the increased production of the non-palatable forb Stellera chamaejasme with warming also reduced rangeland quality. At the shrubland habitats, warming resulted in less digestible shrubs, whose foliage contains 25% digestible dry matter (DDM), replacing more digestible graminoids, whose foliage contains 60% DDM. This shift from graminoids to shrubs not only results in lower-quality forage, but could also have important consequences for future domestic herd composition. Although warming extended the growing season in non-clipped plots, the reduced rangeland quality due to decreased vegetative production and nutritive quality will likely overwhelm the improved rangeland quality associated with an extended growing season. Grazing maintained or improved rangeland quality by increasing total ANPP by 20-40 g x m(-2) x yr(-1) with no effect on palatable ANPP. Grazing effects on forage nutritive quality, as measured by foliar nitrogen and carbon content and by shifts in plant group ANPP, resulted in improved forage quality. Grazing extended the growing season at both habitats, and it advanced the growing season at the meadows. Synergistic interactions between warming and grazing were present, such that grazing mediated the warming-induced declines in vegetation production and nutritive quality. Moreover, combined treatment effects were nonadditive, suggesting that we cannot predict the combined effect of global changes and human activities from single-factor studies. Our findings suggest that the rangelands on the Tibetan Plateau, and the pastoralists who depend on them, may be vulnerable to future climate changes. Grazing can mitigate the negative warming effects on rangeland quality. For example, grazing management may be an important tool to keep warming-induced shrub expansion in check. Moreover, flexible and opportunistic grazing management will be required in a warmer future.     

Revisiting the carbon emissions hypothesis in the developing and developed countries: a new panel cointegration approach

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - Since global warming worsens with economic development and emitted CO2 is one of the main greenhouse gases, it is important to understand...     

Coccolithophorids,Nutrients and the Greenhouse Effect

Despite the fact that coccolithophorids such as Emiliania huxleyi are suspected to play an important role in carbon-cycling, there are few data from which to deduce how these organisms may respond to CO₂-induced global warming. the nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient physiology of these organisms, together with its interaction with photosynthesis, needs to be studied especially in connection with the selection for coccolith forming individuals and the quantity and quality of the CaCO₃ deposited in the coccoliths. Without such data, it will not be possible to model the contributions that these microalgae may play in arresting the increase in levels of atmospheric CO₂.