Design and model based inferences with applications to acidification of lakes in eastern Canada

The design and model based approaches for making inferences about the number of lakes affected by acidic deposition and the chemical characteristics of aquatic resources at risk are described. In many instances when the lakes in the sample are selected for convenience without any randomization, the model based approach continues to provide valid inferences about the population of lakes. The performances of the two approaches are compared using a small population of 177 lakes which are located in southern Quebec. Examples from the Canadian acid rain monitoring program in the Atlantic provinces are also given.     

Advanced REACH Tool (ART): calibration of the mechanistic model

The mechanistic model of the Advanced Reach Tool (ART) provides a relative ranking of exposure levels from different scenarios. The objectives of the calibration described in this paper are threefold: to study whether the mechanistic model scores are accurately ranked in relation to exposure measurements; to enable the mechanistic model to estimate actual exposure levels rather than relative scores; and to provide a method of quantifying model uncertainty. Stringent data quality guidelines were applied to the collated data. Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate the association between relative ART model scores and measurements. A random scenario and company component of variance were introduced to reflect the model uncertainty. Stratified analyses were conducted for different forms of exposure (abrasive dust, dust, vapours and mists). In total more than 2000 good quality measurements were available for the calibration of the mechanistic model. The calibration showed that after calibration the mechanistic model of ART was able to estimate geometric mean (GM) exposure levels with 90% confidence for a given scenario to lie within a factor between two and six of the measured GM depending upon the form of exposure.     

Non-intrusive characterization methods for wastewater-affected groundwater plumes discharging to an alpine lake

Streams and lakes in rocky environments are especially susceptible to nutrient loading from wastewater-affected groundwater plumes. However, the use of invasive techniques such as drilling wells, installing piezometers or seepage meters, to detect and characterize these plumes can be prohibitive. In this work, we report on the use of four non-intrusive methods for this purpose at a site in the Rocky Mountains. The methods included non-invasive geophysical surveys of subsurface electrical conductivity (EC), in-situ EC measurement of discharging groundwater at the lake-sediment interface, shoreline water sampling and nutrient analysis, and shoreline periphyton sampling and analysis of biomass and taxa relative abundance. The geophysical surveys were able to detect and delineate two high-EC plumes, with capacitively coupled ERI (OhmMapper) providing detailed two-dimensional images. In situ measurements at the suspected discharge locations confirmed the presence of high-EC water in the two plumes and corroborated their spatial extent. The nutrient and periphyton results showed that only one of the two high-EC plumes posed a current eutrophication threat, with elevated nitrogen and phosphorus levels, high localized periphyton biomass and major shifts in taxonomic composition to taxa that are commonly associated with anthropogenic nutrient loading. This study highlights the need to use non-intrusive methods in combination, with geophysical and water EC-based methods used for initial detection of wastewater-affected groundwater plumes, and nutrient or periphyton sampling used to characterize their ecological effects.     

A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations

We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.     

用灰色聚类法对荔湾湖水质富营养化程度的评价

灰色聚类法把湖泊系统当作一个灰色系统来研究,将灰色聚类理论应用于湖泊富营养化程度的评价中,以广州市荔湾湖为例,建立不同的聚类指标所拥有的隶属函数,确定聚类权重值,求得最大聚类系数及聚类结果,得出用灰色聚类法进行湖泊水质富营养化评价,既能体现水质等级界线的模糊性,又能充分利用信息,避免了模糊数学法的不合理之处。因而,灰色聚类法是一种简便、客观、可靠的方法。     

Water quality monitoring and assessment of an urban Mediterranean lake facilitated by remote sensing applications

Degradation of water quality is a major problem worldwide and often leads to serious environmental impacts and concerns about public health. In this study, the water quality monitoring and assessment of the Koumoundourou Lake, a brackish urban shallow lake located in the northeastern part of Elefsis Bay (Greece), were evaluated. A number of water quality parameters (pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration, electrical conductivity, turbidity, nutrients, and chlorophyll-a concentration) were analyzed in water samples collected bimonthly over a 1-year period from five stations throughout the lake. Moreover, biological quality elements were analysed seasonally over the 1-year period (benthic fauna). Statistical analysis was performed in order to evaluate the water quality of the lake and distinguish sources of variation measured in the samples. Furthermore, the chemical and trophic status of the lake was evaluated according to the most widely applicable classification schemes. Satellite images of Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper were used in order for algorithms to be developed and calculate the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). The trophic status of the lake was characterized as oligotrophic based on phosphorus and as mesotrophic–eutrophic based on Chl-a concentrations. The results of the remote sensing application indicated a relatively high coefficient of determination (R ²) among point sampling results and the remotely sensed data, which implies that the selected algorithm is reliable and could be used for the monitoring of Chl-a concentration in the particular water body when no field data are available.     

Assessment of cylindrospermopsin toxin in an arid Saudi lake containing dense cyanobacterial bloom

This study reports the presence of the cyanobacterial toxin cylindrospermopisn (CYN) and its producer Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii for the first time in Saudi freshwater sources. C. raciborskii was found in Gazan Dam Lake water with two morphotypes (coiled and straight). The appearance and cell density of this species was significantly positively related to high temperature and high ammonium concentrations, and negatively with nitrate and phosphate concentrations in the lake. Intracellular concentrations of CYN (4–173 μg L^?1) were associated with C. raciborskii rather than other cyanobacteria with a maximal value obtained in June 2011, coinciding with the highest bloom of this species (19?×?10⁷ trichome L^?1). CYN cell quotas (0.6–14.6 pg cell^?1) varied significantly along the study period and correlated with most environmental factors. The results of ELISA and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry proved that the CYN production by strains of this species was isolated from this lake during the present study, with an amount reaching 568 μg g^?1. Extracellular CYN was also detected in cell-free lake water at concentrations 0.03–23.3 μg L^?1, exceeding the drinking water guideline value of 1 μg L^?1 during the Apr–Jul period. As this lake is an important source for drinking and irrigation waters, CYN monitoring should be included in the environmental and health risk assessment plans of these water bodies.     

An empirical model of sediment deposition processes in Lake Kerkini, Central Macedonia Greece

The deposition processes in Kerkini Reservoir, since 1933, are examined in this paper. Built on the course of River Strymonas at the plain of Serres for anti-flooding control, it was gradually developed as a multipurpose reservoir for irrigation and a very important international wetland protected by the Ramsar Treaty. The deposition into Lake Kerkini is caused by the high rates of sediment transport by River Strymonas from the Bulgarian, Serbian and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia territory drainage basin of Kerkini of 11,600 km². The life expectancy of the original reservoir was approximately 40 years. The sediment transport and the deposition volumes and rates were high during the first stages of Kerkini operation due to deforestations and stockbreeding activities against forested and agricultural areas in southwestern Bulgaria before World War II, which intensify erosion and deposition phenomena in Kerkini’s catchment. They were gradually reduced due to the anti-erosion hydraulic works, extended reforestations mainly in the period 1962–1977, and the natural processes of Strymonas–Kerkini hydrosystem to attain its equilibrium. Based on six systematic bottom surveys of the reservoir from 1933 to 1991, two empirical formulas of the total deposition volume (ΣV _s) and the deposition rates (ΔΣV _s/ΔΣt) through time (Σt) were developed. The results have been compared with other catchments of the broader Balkan area concerning the erosion, sediment yield, sediment deposition volumes, and rates, and it was found in accordance with the measured data. The obtained empirical model was used to estimate the life expectancy of the new rebuilt reservoir of Kerkini in 1984; in the case of natural processes, these do not change dramatically in the transboundary Lake Kerkini catchment. The deposition processes of Kerkini were the major causes of its development into an internationally important wetland and biotope. Kerkini offers development opportunities for scientific research, environmental education, ecotourism, and recreation activities.     

Hydrologic modelling for Lake Basaka: development and application of a conceptual water budget model

Quantification of fluxes of water into and out of terminal lakes like Basaka has fundamental challenges. This is due to the fact that accurate measurement and quantification of most of the parameters of a lake’s hydrologic cycle are difficult. Furthermore, quantitative understanding of the hydrologic systems and hence, the data-intensive modelling is difficult in developing countries like Ethiopia due to limitation of sufficient recorded data. Therefore, formulation of a conceptual water balance model is extremely important as it presents a convenient analytical tool with simplified assumptions to simulate the magnitude of unknown fluxes. In the current study, a conceptual lake water balance model was systematically formulated, solved, calibrated, and validated successfully. Then, the surface water and groundwater interaction was quantified, and a mathematical relationship developed. The overall agreement between the observed and simulated lake stage at monthly time step was confirmed based on the standard performance parameters (R ², MAE, RMSE, E _f). The result showed that hydrological water balance of the lake is dominated by the groundwater (GW) component. The net GW flux in recent period (post-2000s) accounts about 56 % of the total water inflow. Hence, GW plays a leading role in the hydrodynamics and existence of Lake Basaka and is mostly responsible for the expansion of the lake. Thus, identification of the potential sources/causes for the GW flux plays a leading role in order to limit the further expansion of the lake. Measurement of GW movement and exchange in the area is a high priority for future research.     

Characterizing agrochemical patterns and effective BMPs for surface waters using mechanistic modeling and GIS

Monitoring programs in the agriculturally intense San Joaquin River Valley of California have periodically found organophosphate (OP) insecticide concentrations, predominantly chlorpyrifos, diazinon and methidathion, at levels high enough to cause mortality for the aquatic invertebrate Ceriodaphnia dubia. These detections are likely the result of off-site movement from treated fields. However, the relative significance and magnitude of off-site transport pathways cannot be readily deduced from monitoring data alone. Therefore, a comprehensive modeling system has been constructed to estimate temporal and spatial pesticide source magnitudes and to follow the pesticide dissipation pathways once in surface water. The USEPA models HSPF and PRZM3 were used for the hydrology and non-point source predictions, respectively. Spray drift was accounted for using the mechanistic model AgDrift. The Orestimba Creek Watershed in the San Joaquin Valley was characterized and used as a typical watershed for this region. Representative transport pathways were ranked and quantified, and numerical implementation of best management practices (BMPs) determined which practice may have the highest likelihood for reducing pesticide loadings. Approximately 85% of the predicted chlorpyrifos mass detected between May 1, 1996, and April 30, 1997 resulted from drift, with the largest contributions coming from walnut orchards immediately adjacent to Orestimba Creek. Various simulated drift mitigation measures suggest chlorpyrifos mass loadings can be decreased by over 90% depending upon the type of mitigation chosen. Imposed drift BMPs should be effective in reducing chlorpyrifos levels found in surface waters of the San Joaquin valley if the Orestimba creek watershed is considered representative of watersheds found in this area of California.     

沿海地区中小城市环境空气质量预报模式的研究与应用

根据两年来的实际工作经验,探讨了沿海地区气象因素对环境空气质量的影响,并结合沿海地区气候特征及污染现状对影响环境空气质量的因素进行了研究分析,建立了适合于沿海地区中小城市环境空气质量预报模式,其预报准确率高。对沿海地区中小城市今后开展空气质量预报工作具有一定的指导意义。     

Design and field application of an automated cartridge sampler for VOC concentration and flux measurements

One of the major limitations in advancing the understanding of tropospheric ozone and aerosol generation and developing strategies for their control is the technical ability to accurately measure volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This paper describes the design of a constant flow VOC sampler. The versatile sampler can be used for fully automated concentration and flux measurements of VOCs. The sampler incorporates a microprocessor control unit and provides highly accurate mass flow control and significant ease of operation. Sampling sequences can be programmed directly or by remote control through a PC. All important operational parameters necessary for a complete sampling audit trail are logged. Compact weatherproof housings and low power consumption allow operation at remote sites and locations which are sensitive to disturbances or have restricted access. Inner wetted surfaces of the sampler are constructed from non-contaminating materials that do not sorb or emit VOC, and thus permit the collection of representative samples even in environments with very low VOC concentrations. The cartridge magazine provides a maximum of 20 sequential cartridge samples, which allows for long-term air quality assessments. In the dual channel mode, two samples can be collected simultaneously through two independent sample loops, providing ten sequential sample pairs. This design allows the parallel collection of (a) quality assurance backup samples, (b) samples on two different types of cartridges/sorbents to allow a variety of analyses, or (c) differential samples for flux measurements using enclosure, aerodynamic profile, or relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) methods. Field applications including airplane profile measurements above a tropical rainforest area, as well as gradient and REA measurements over a mid-latitude mixed forest stand are described, and demonstrate the validity and flexibility of the system. In particular, the application of the VOC sampler as an integrated part of a REA system is emphasized.     

A regional algorithm to model mesozooplankton biomass along the southwestern Bay of Bengal

A three-dimensional regression analysis attempted to model mesozooplankton (MSP) biomass using sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chl-a). The study was carried out from January 2014 to July 2015 in the southwestern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and sampling was carried out on board Sagar Manjusha and Sagar Purvi. SST ranged from 26.2 to 33.1 °C while Chl-a varied from 0.04 to 6.09 μg L^?1. During the course of the study period, there was a weak correlation (r?= 0.32) between SST and Chl-a statistically. MSP biomass varied from 0.42 to 9.63 mg C m^?3 and inversely related with SST. Two kinds of approaches were adopted to develop the model by grouping seasonal datasets (four seasonal algorithms) and comprising all datasets (one annual algorithm). Among the four functions used (linear, paraboloid, the Lorentzian and the Gaussian functions), paraboloid model was best suited. The best seasonal and annual algorithms were applied in the synchronous MODIS-derived SST and Chl-a data to estimate the MSP biomass in the southwestern BoB. The modelled MSP biomass was validated with field MSP biomass and the result was statistically significant, showing maximum regression coefficient for the seasonal algorithms (R²?=?0.60; p?=?0.627; α?= 0.05), than the annual algorithm (R²?=?0.52; p?=?0.015, α?=?0.05).     

Examination of compensatory model application in site selection

Nowadays, usage of compensatory models in land evaluation process and site selection is broadly observed. Meanwhile, methods such as analytical hierarchy process are used more than the others. Whether the usage of compensatory model methods in site selection studies is essentially correct or not is an issue that should be hesitated. In this model, inefficiency of a factor, to be offset by strength of others, means that in urban development site selection, if somewhere has unsuitable aspect but suitable slope, the aspect deficiency will be compensated by the slope. But quodlibet reflection is that in this model, sometimes, deficiency of proximity to fault can be compensated by other parameters strength. And finally, a place is diagnosed as a suitable area for urban development that is close to the fault. This research aims at examination of compensatory models application in urban development site selection of Taleghan Basin using analytical hierarchy process as one of the compensatory model methods. Among this the weaknesses and strengths of compensatory model were analyzed carefully. Results indicate that despite usefulness of this model in being fast, easy, and low expense, it has some weaknesses like very high sensitivity to decision maker’s idea.     

Transformation effect of resource-based cities based on PSM-DID model: An empirical analysis from China

Promoting sustainable development in resource-based cities is required to accelerate transformative economic development, which also can promote harmonious development and accelerate progress of industrialization while playing a critical role in China's urbanization. However, the role of regional sustainable development plans within resource-based cities is unclear. This paper selected 87 resource-based cities as the treated group, matching propensity scores of city characteristics on a total of 253 cities in China from 2008 to 2018. The paper used the difference-in-differences method to evaluate the impact of the implementation of the “National Plan for Resource-based City Sustainable Development (2013-2020)”, measuring six years before and five years post-planning implementation. We found: (1) The implementation of the plan has promoted economic, social, and ecological transformation by 19.6%, 55.4% and 74.5% respectively (p < 0.01), but there appeared to be no additional effects on sustainable utilization of resources. (2) Among driving factors, market development affected all forms of transformation the most. (3) The impact of this transformation varied by stages of urban development according to the full life cycle of the resource-based city and its local resources. Specifically, the transformation effect of the growing type city in economic, social, ecological and resource transformation was the strongest among that of all type stages.     

Local and regional air pollution in Ireland during an intensive aerosol measurement campaign

An intensive two month measurement campaign has been performed during a two year study of major component composition of urban PM10 and PM2.5 in Ireland (J. Yin, A. G. Allen, R. M. Harrison, S. G. Jennings, E. Wright, M. Fitzpatrick, T. Healy, E. Barry, D. Ceburnis and D. McCusker, Atmos. Res., 2005, 78(3-4), 149-165). Measurements included size-segregated mass, soluble ions, elemental carbon (EC) distributions, fine and coarse fraction organic carbon (OC) and major gases along with standard meteorological measurements. The study revealed that urban emissions in Ireland had mainly a local character and therefore were confined within a limited area of 20-30 km radius, without significantly affecting regional air quality. Gaseous measurements have shown that urban emissions in Ireland had clear, but fairly limited influence on the regional air quality due to favorable mixing conditions at higher wind speeds, in particular from the western sector. Size-segregated mass and chemical measurements revealed a clear demarcation size between accumulation and coarse modes at about 0.8 microm which was constant at all sites. Carbonaceous compounds at the urban site accounted for up to 90% of the particle mass in a size range of 0.066-0.61 microm. Nss SO4(2-) concentrations in PM2.5 were only slightly higher at the urban site compared to the rural or coastal sites, while NO3- and NH4+ concentrations were similar at the urban and coastal sites, but were a factor of 2 to 3 higher than at the rural site. OC was highly variable between the sites and revealed clear seasonal differences. Natural or biogenic OC component accounted for <10% in winter and up to 30% in summer of the PM2.5 OC at urban sites. A contribution of biogenic OC component to PM2.5 OC mass at rural site was dominant.     

Validity of CVM related to the type of environmental good; an empirical test

This research explores the boundaries of a valid application of contingent valuation as a method to value environmental changes. Recent criticism from social psychologists refers to unrealistic cognitive demands upon respondents. Criticism from economists point to the problem of measuring preferences in relation to non-use values. In this research the hypothesis is tested that the CV method in valuing goods with non-use value and with a complex content of information produces less valid results than with use values and non-complex content of information. Validity is tested across goods (sample survey: N=832). Results show that scope validity is ambiguous for goods with high content of complexity. Construct validity is not guaranteed for environmental changes with non-use values: Economic factors are not significant, only attitudes are relevant. Given the importance of WTP figures in cost-benefit analysis these results are of paramount importance for the trust in contingent valuation.     

关于区域环境质量的复合模糊距离评价方法及应用探讨

从分析环境质量结构和模糊理论对环境质量构成特征表达的客观性入手,通过用主要因子单要素对模糊距离的复合修订,建立了符合环境质量特征和环境质量评价本质要求的复合模糊距离的评价方法和模型,使评价结果突破以往的定性描述而达到准确定量判定。应用实例表明,该方法具有合理性和适用性,实用价值较高     

Application of a benthic observed/expected-type model for assessing Central Appalachian streams influenced by regional stressors in West Virginia and Kentucky

Stream bioassessments rely on taxonomic composition at sites compared with natural, reference conditions. We developed and tested an observed/expected (O/E) predictive model of taxonomic completeness and an index of compositional dissimilarity (BC index) for Central Appalachian streams using combined macroinvertebrate datasets from riffle habitats in West Virginia (WV) and Kentucky (KY). A total of 102 reference sites were used to calibrate the O/E model, which was then applied to assess over 1,200 sites sampled over a 10-year period. Using an all subsets discriminant function analysis (DFA) procedure, we tested combinations of 14 predictor variables that produced DF and O/E models of varying performance. We selected the most precise model using a probability of capture at >0.5 (O/E _0.5, SD?=?0.159); this model was constructed with only three simple predictor variables—Julian day, latitude, and whether a site was in ecoregion 69a. We evaluated O/E and BC indices between reference and test sites and compared their response to regional stressors, including coal mining, residential development, and acid deposition. The Central Appalachian O/E and BC indices both showed excellent discriminatory power and were significantly correlated to a variety of regional stressors; in some instances, the BC index was slightly more sensitive and responsive than the O/E _0.5 model. These indices can be used to supplement existing bioassessment tools crucial to detecting and diagnosing stream impacts in the Central Appalachian region of WV and KY.