US resources policy: The 1982 report to congress

This paper analyses the extent to which the new Reagan mineral policy will encourage increased US production, substitution, recycling and conservation, domestic stock-piling and diversification of foreign supplies. Major inadequacies of the mineral policy are the transfer of responsibility for research and development from the government to the unprepared private sector, the lack of emphasis on short-term research and development in mineral processing technology, and the lack of coordination between minerals policy and national security and foreign policy. However, overall the policy is a positive step towards reducing the current US minerals supply vulnerability.     

Global competition for strategic mineral supplies

The USA's dependence on imported sources of strategic minerals has grown substantially since the second world war, while its ability to protect the sealanes critical to foreign supplies has deteriorated. Domestic production has been severely hampered by a lack of access to mining on public lands, and by excessive environmental regulations. No major purchases have been made for the strategic stockpile in 20 years. Concern has been growing in Western Europe and in Japan about secure supplies of strategic minerals. Being even more dependent on foreign sources of supply than the USA, some of these countries have recently initiated their own strategic stockpilling programmes. The USSR, long an important exporter of metals, appears to have changed its mineral trade policy, and has sharply reduced exports while entering the market as an importer of a number of key metals. These developments foreshadow growing competition for world supplies of strategic minerals.     

The non-fuel mineral position of the USA

In 1978 the USA used non-fuel processed mineral materials valued at over $200 billion (10⁹). Non-fuel mineral imports caused a trade imbalance of $8 billion. Imports supplied more than half of US supplies of 20 important minerals. The US stockpile of strategic materials is valued at over $11 billion. While world reserves of most minerals are now deemed adequate until 2000, demand for high temperature and special property materials requires careful monitoring and anticipation of disruptions in vulnerable sources.     

Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong,but why?

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The principal objectives of the present study are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 non-fuel minerals covered in the earlier study, and, then, to attempt to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand: income, technological, regulatory and other public policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals are: aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.This follow-up study begins with a discussion of the need for long-term projections of minerals. This section also includes a summary of the major determinants of the long-term demand for, and supply of, minerals, and a review of some of the earlier assessments of mineral needs and availability.Section 3 of the article begins with a short summary of the World Input–Output Model, the main methodological tool used in the earlier study that was developed by Prof. Wassily Leontief, the 1973 Nobel laureate in economics, and the way in which non-fuel minerals were represented in that system. This section also provides a summary of other global modeling efforts of non-fuel minerals that were carried out at a similar point in time for a similar interval.Section 4 presents the actual population, GDP and per capita GDP changes over the 1970–2000 time interval compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the projected and observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight non-fuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared to the observed global consumption rates for the year 2000, the differences range from +43% for nickel to +229% for potash.Section 5 discusses the apparent reasons for the differences between the projected and observed global consumption rates of these non-fuel minerals that include differences in the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, changes in recycling rates (for the metallic minerals), technological change, and regulatory or other public policy changes that have affected mineral use over the 30-year-interval ending in 2000.In light of the data and analysis presented in Sections sec# and sec#, the article concludes with some remarks, made almost a quarter of a century ago, by Prof. Leontief on the need and justification for long-term projections.     

Urbanization and mining: a case study of Michigan

The US mining industry is increasingly an industry of industrial and construction minerals production. In 2002, these types of minerals accounted for 80% of the value of non-fuel minerals produced in the USA. Industrial and construction mineral production tend to be smaller operations and nearer urban areas than metallic mining and have somewhat different problems. This paper is a study of the growing impact of urbanization and land-use fragmentation on mining, particularly industrial and construction minerals production. An analysis of the state of Michigan is used as a case study to present the issues and concerns.     

The role of the Australian minerals industry in world mineral supplies

Australia is one of the world's main producers and exporters of both fuel and non-fuel minerals. Among the main commodities produced for export are bauxite/alumina, iron ore, and nickel—Australia is also an increasingly important source of supply of black coal, especially for Japan, and is a significant producer and exporter of a number of base metals. Resources are adequate to support a substantial expansion of both non-oil fuels and other minerals. The potential for growth, both in terms of specific commodities and in the overall role of Australia in the world mineral industry, will depend to a very large extent on the cost competitiveness of Australian mining and on continuing inflow of capital.     

The USSR, China, India and the world metals industry to 2010

Remarkable changes are occurring within the economies of the USSR, China and India that are influencing mineral industry activities. These three countries account for a major share of world minerals production and consumption. Their domestic reforms may ultimately have a serious impact on the global mining industry. This paper examines the present status of the Soviet, Chinese and Indian mineral industries, and forecasts conditions to 2010. Long-term characteristics analysed include industrial production, intensity of use, consumption, mine and plant expansion and trade policy. Six metals are highlighted in the study – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, steel and zinc.     

Harnessing the bonanza: economic liberalization and capacity building in the mineral sector

Over the past decade many developing and transition economies have liberalized their investment regimes for mining and privatized formerly state-owned mineral assets. In response, these economies have witnessed increased foreign investment in exploration and development, growth in the number and diversity of mineral projects, and the opening up of new channels for harnessing increased economic and social benefits from development in the minerals sector. The restructuring of fiscal and regulatory regimes to encourage foreign investment, and the associated influx of mining capital, technology and skills, is transforming traditional relationships between mining firms, local communities and the government. This transformation necessitates a re-evaluation of the most effective policy approaches to capture increased economic and social benefits from mineral production. This article considers effective mechanisms for improving the capacity of developing and transition countries to maximize the economic and social benefits of mineral production. Common challenges associated with minerals economies are reviewed. Consideration is given to the opportunities for harnessing foreign direct investment and the possibilities for creating new partnerships between local communities, industry, government, and multilateral development agencies through social investment projects. The article concludes with a series of recommendations for the design and implementation of policy approaches towards harnessing mineral production for economic and social benefit following the liberalization of investment regimes for mining.     

Imperatives for attracting investment and technology in the Indian mining sector

In India, the mineral resource inventory and the production of a large number of important minerals have registered significant increases during the last few decades. Yet the country continues to be a net importer of many high value and scarce minerals and metals, like gold, diamond, and several base metals. Exploration and development of the resources of these minerals are technology- and capital-intensive. To bring technology and capital through foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Indian mineral sector, it is imperative to lay stress on: accurate resource estimation and categorization, as well as realistic projection of the true values; rationalization of legislative measures based on R&D studies and reorganization of the implementation machinery; conducive tax structure; notification of acts and rules applicable to offshore mineral resources; time-frames for granting licences and leases; encouragement to labor productivity by rationalizing labor laws; reforms in the monetary system to increase market competitiveness of Indian minerals; and judicial reforms. FDI in the Indian mineral sector is important to firm up the knowledge-base of mineral resources and their optimum exploitation.     

Soviet non-fuel mineral resources : Surplus or scarcity?

The USSR has long been regarded as a resource-rich country with no need for external sources of non-fuel mineral resources. Increasingly, however, it is beginning to appear that such an assessment of the Soviet non-fuel mineral resource picture is overly optimistic. The Soviet mineral industry is beset by a variety of problems which complicate the extraction and utilization of needed minerals. The USSR remains a resource-rich country, but the difficulties it encounters exploiting its resources are multiplying. This article examines the Soviet aluminium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, platinum, titanium and zinc industries, and offers views of the Soviet resource future in each area.     

The current status of the US mining industry

The US economy annually needs over 4 billion tons of new mineral supplies. The value of domestically produced energy and processed materials of mineral origin exceeds $175 billion annually, but domestic production of both raw and processed minerals is not keeping pace with demand.     

The copper industry 1945–1975

During the 1945–1975 period copper differed from other major non-ferrous metals and mineral products in experiencing rising real prices, on a trend basis. This paper examines the major features of supply and demand over the period, including the impact of economic activity, changing locations of consumption and trends in costs. Government controls affecting both supply and demand and US government stockpiling policies were all pervasive especially in the 1950s. Supply was throughout periodically interrupted by lengthy and widespread strikes and was also subject to frequent and wide-ranging political disturbances during the 1960s. From the early 1960s onwards a substantial share of world production became state controlled, profoundly altering the objectives and commercial policies of suppliers. Tightening anti-trust legislation and the changing location of consumption combined with changes in ownership to weaken the willingness and ability of suppliers to influence prices. The paper concludes that the behaviour of copper prices during the 1945–1975 period arose from the particular circumstances of the time and offers very little guidance, if any, to likely future trends.     

Probability of continued Soviet mineral self-sufficiency

The USSR ranks as a major producer of virtually all energy and non-fuel minerals. Soviet minerals policy, a key component of national economic development, is based primarily on an unprecedented level of self-sufficiency. The author explains how recent changes in historical export-import patterns, decreasing ore grades, rising consumption, limitations imposed by the Soviet economic system, and depletion of easily accessible deposits could signify a future inability to sustain its supply independence. The apparent existence of vast, remote mineralized areas in Asia suggests self-sufficiency could remain an option available to Soviet leaders, but it would be even more expensive to maintain.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

Privatizing the minerals sector

The end of the Cold War presents new challenges for the dynamics associated with mineral resources development. Broader approaches are needed to help mineral rich developing countries develop their minerals sector. These countries need to embark upon programmes of policy reform and privatization in order to make their mineral resources industries more efficient and responsive to free market forces (such as supply and demand and price), and to turn mineral sector decision making over to the private sector. This article examines the use of policy reform and privatization strategies to increase mineral resource production in developing countries, thereby contributing to both developing country economic growth and developed country access to mineral supplies .     

Mineral exploration in the USSR and the USA

This article compares non-fuel mineral exploration in the USSR and the USA. It examines the organization of exploration; recent trends in the level and distribution of expenditures; exploration productivity; and planning and decision making. It shows that although the sequence of exploration stages and activities is very similar in both countries, substantial differences overshadow these similarities, largely because of different economic and political systems and mineral endowments. However, the article concludes that we still have much to learn before making a full comparison of Soviet and US exploration.     

China's foreign trade in metal minerals: Performance and prospects

This paper examines China's mineral trade and notes a widespread enthusiasm about that country's potential to supply minerals to the rest of the world. It is felt that this enthusiasm is misplaced since the balance of China's trade in metals is in deficit and the quality of its reserves far from exceptional. It is concluded that China is likely to remain a major metals importer for the rest of this century.     

External Debt and Prospects for Minerals-exporting Developing Countries

This article examines the extent to which selected non-fuel minerals-exporting developing countries can rely on their traditional source of hard-currency earnings to promote future economic growth and to facilitate payments for interest and amortization of accumulated debt. The countries (and minerals) under consideration are: Chile (copper), Bolivia (tin) and Jamaica (bauxite). Incorporated into the study are sets of alternative assumptions regarding global demand for these minerals to the end of the century, market shares, mineral prices, external debt levels and interest rates. More specifically, the study examines the likely ranges of future export revenues of these countries from these minerals in the years 1990 and 2000, and the role that these future export revenues may play in servicing external debt.     

Strategic metal markets : Prospects for producer cartels

The OECD area is a major consumer and importer of strategic metals. Assurance of a steady supply of these critical materials at reasonably stable prices has for a long time been an important policy issue in the industrialized market economies. The present study addresses one aspect of supply security. The purpose is to explore the prospects for and strength of price-raising cartel action in selected strategic metal markets, mounted by producers outside the OECD countries.     

Mining and sustainable development: considerations for minerals supply

Sustainable development involves meeting the needs of human societies while maintaining viable biological and physical Earth systems. The needs include minerals: metals, fuels, industrial and construction materials. There will continue to be considerable demand for virgin mineral resources, even if levels of recycling and efficiency of use are optimal, and rates of population growth and globalisation decrease significantly. This article aims to stimulate debate on strategic issues for minerals supply. While the world has considerable stocks of mineral resources overall, international considerations of the environmental and social aspects of sustainable development are beginning to result in limitations on where mining will be conducted and what types of deposits will be mined. Current and emerging trends favour large mines in parts of the world where mining can be conducted within acceptable limits of environmental and social impact. Finding new deposits that meet such criteria will be all the more challenging given a disturbing global decline in the rate of discovery of major economic resources over the last decade, and the decreasing land area available for exploration and mining.
To attract responsible exploration and mining, governments of mining nations will need to provide: regional-scale geo-scientific datasets as required to attract and guide future generations of exploration; resource access through multiple and sequential land use regimes, and frameworks for dealing with indigenous peoples' issues; and arrangements for consideration of mining proposals and regulation of mines that ensure responsible management of environmental and social issues.
The minerals industry will need to continue to pursue advances in technologies for exploration, mining, processing, waste management and rehabilitation, and in public reporting of environmental and social performance.