A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States1

García, Ana María, Anne B. Hoos, and Silvia Terziotti, 2011. A Regional Modeling Framework of Phosphorus Sources and Transport in Streams of the Southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):991‐1010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00517.x Abstract: We applied the SPARROW model to estimate phosphorus transport from catchments to stream reaches and subsequent delivery to major receiving water bodies in the Southeastern United States (U.S.). We show that six source variables and five land‐to‐water transport variables are significant (p < 0.05) in explaining 67% of the variability in long‐term log‐transformed mean annual phosphorus yields. Three land‐to‐water variables are a subset of landscape characteristics that have been used as transport factors in phosphorus indices developed by state agencies and are identified through experimental research as influencing land‐to‐water phosphorus transport at field and plot scales. Two land‐to‐water variables – soil organic matter and soil pH – are associated with phosphorus sorption, a significant finding given that most state‐developed phosphorus indices do not explicitly contain variables for sorption processes. Our findings for Southeastern U.S. streams emphasize the importance of accounting for phosphorus present in the soil profile to predict attainable instream water quality. Regional estimates of phosphorus associated with soil‐parent rock were highly significant in explaining instream phosphorus yield variability. Model predictions associate 31% of phosphorus delivered to receiving water bodies to geology and the highest total phosphorus yields in the Southeast were catchments with already high background levels that have been impacted by human activity.     

Dissolved Organic Carbon and Estrogen Transport in Surface Runoff From Agricultural Land Receiving Poultry Litter1

Dutta, Sudarshan, Shreeram Inamdar, Jerry Tso, Diana S. Aga, and J. Tom Sims, 2012. Dissolved Organic Carbon and Estrogen Transport in Surface Runoff from Agricultural Land Receiving Poultry Litter. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 558-569. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00634.x Abstract: Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) provides a reactive substrate for the transport of organic contaminants with runoff. Very few studies have investigated the export of DOC from agricultural land, especially those receiving manure applications. We investigated exports of DOC in surface runoff from agricultural fields receiving various treatments of poultry litter (raw vs. pelletized). In addition, we also investigated how estrogens in runoff were associated with DOC. Different forms of estrogens studied were: estrone, 17β-estradiol, estriol, and their conjugates. Experimental agricultural plots were 12 m × 5 m long and had reduced tillage and no-till management practices. The aromatic content of DOC was characterized using specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA). Flow-weighted concentrations of DOC and SUVA in surface runoff from plots with poultry litter were significantly (p ≤ 0.10) greater than the control (no litter) plots. Compared to pelletized poultry litter, reduced-tillage plots with raw litter yielded higher DOC concentrations and SUVA values. No significant differences (p ≥ 0.10) in DOC and SUVA were observed between litter treatments for plots with no-till. Total estrogen concentrations (including all forms) were positively and significantly (p ≤ 0.10) correlated with DOC. These results can help select and guide agricultural management practices that can reduce the exports of DOC and associated contaminant from agricultural land receiving manure applications.     

Effect of Watershed Subdivision and Filter Width on SWAT Simulation of a Coastal Plain Watershed1

Cho, Jaepil, Richard R. Lowrance, David D. Bosch, Timothy C. Strickland, Younggu Her, and George Vellidis, 2010. Effect of Watershed Subdivision and Filter Width on SWAT Simulation of a Coastal Plain Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):586-602. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00436.x Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) does not fully simulate riparian buffers, but has a simple filter function that is responsive to filter strip width (FILTERW). The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate SWAT hydrology and water quality response to changes in watershed subdivision levels and different FILTERW configurations and (2) provide guidance for selecting appropriate watershed subdivision for model runs that include the riparian buffer feature through the FILTERW parameter. Watershed subdivision level is controlled by the critical source area (CSA) which defines the minimum drainage area required to form the origin of a stream. SWAT was calibrated on a 15.7 km² subdrainage within the Little River Experimental Watershed, Georgia. The calibrated parameter set was applied to 32 watershed configurations consisting of four FILTERW representations for each of eight CSA levels. Streamflow predictions were stable regardless of watershed subdivision and FILTERW configuration. Predicted sediment and nutrient loads from upland areas decreased as CSA increased when spatial variations of riparian buffers are considered. Sediment and nutrient yield at the watershed outlet was responsive to different combinations of CSA and FILTERW depending on selected in-stream processes. CSA ranges which provide stable sediment and nutrient yields at the watershed outlet was suggested for avoiding significant modifications in selected parameter set.     

A Multilevel Model of the Impact of Farm‐Level Best Management Practices on Phosphorus Runoff1

Abstract: Multilevel or hierarchical models have been applied for a number of years in the social sciences but only relatively recently in the environmental sciences. These models can be developed in either a frequentist or Bayesian context and have similarities to other methods such as empirical Bayes analysis and random coefficients regression. In essence, multilevel models take advantage of the hierarchical structure that exists in many multivariate datasets; for example, water quality measurements may be taken from individual lakes, lakes are located in various climatic zones, lakes may be natural or man‐made, and so on. The groups, or levels, may effectively yield different responses or behaviors (e.g., nutrient load response in lakes) that often make retaining group membership more effective when developing a predictive model than when working with either all of the data together or working separately with the individuals. Here, we develop a multilevel model of the impact of farm level best management practices (BMPs) on phosphorus runoff. The result of this research is a model with parameters which vary with key practice categories and thus may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of these practices on phosphorus runoff. For example, it was found that the effect of fertilizer application rate on farm‐scale phosphorus loss is a function of the application method, the hydrologic soil group, and the land use (crop type). Further, results indicate that the most effective method for controlling fertilizer loss is through soil injection. In summary, the resultant multilevel model can be used to estimate phosphorus loss from farms and hence serve as a useful tool for BMP selection.     

Variations in Base‐Flow Nitrate Flux in a First‐Order Stream and Riparian Zone1

Abstract: Nonpoint source pollution, which contributes to contamination of surface waters, is difficult to control. Some pollutants, particularly nitrate (), are predominantly transmitted through ground water. Riparian buffer zones have the potential to remove contaminants from ground water and reduce the amount of that enters surface water. This is a justification for setting aside vegetated buffer strips along waterways. Many riparian zone hydrologic models assume uniform ground‐water flow through organic‐rich soil under reducing conditions, leading to effective removal of ground‐water prior to discharge into a stream. However, in a small first‐order stream in the mid‐Atlantic coastal plain, base‐flow generation was highly variable (spatially and temporally). Average base‐flow loads were greater in winter than summer, and higher during a wetter year than in dryer years. Specific sections of the stream consistently received greater amounts of high ground water than others. Areas within the riparian zone responsible for most of the exported from the watershed are termed “critical areas.” Over this 5‐year study, most of the exported during base flow originated from a critical area comprising less than 10% of the total riparian zone land area. Allocation of resources to address and improve mitigation function in critical areas should be a priority for continued riparian zone research.     

Hydrologic and Phosphorus Export Behavior of Small Streams in Commercial Poultry‐Pasture Watersheds1

Romeis, J. Joshua, C. Rhett Jackson, L. Mark Risse, Andrew N. Sharpley, and David E. Radcliffe, 2011. Hydrologic and Phosphorus Export Behavior of Small Streams in Commercial Poultry‐Pasture Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐19. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00521.x Abstract: Few watershed‐scale studies have evaluated phosphorus export in streamflow from commercial poultry‐pasture operations. Continuous streamflow and mixed‐frequency water quality datasets were collected from nine commercial poultry‐pasture (AG) and three forested (FORS) headwater streams (2.4‐44 ha) in the upper Etowah River basin of Georgia to estimate total P (TP) loads and examine variability of hydrologic response and water quality of storm and nonstorm‐flow regimes. Data collection duration ranged from 18 to 22 months, and approximately 1,600 water quality samples were collected. Significant (p < 0.1) inverse relationships were detected between peak flow response variables and both drainage area and fraction of forest cover. Order‐of‐magnitude differences in TP and dissolved reactive P (DRP) concentration were observed between AG and FORS sites and among AG sites. TP yields of FORS sites ranged from 0.01 to 0.1 kg P/ha. Yields of AG sites ranged from 0.031 to 3.17 kg P/ha (median = 0.354 kg P/ha). With 95% confidence intervals, AG yields ranged from 0.025 to 13.1 kg P/ha. These small‐watershed‐scale yields were similar to field‐scale yields measured in other studies in other regions. TP yields were significantly related to area‐weighted Mehlich‐1 soil test P concentrations (p = 0.0073) and base‐flow water sample P concentrations (p ≤ 0.0005). Water quality sampling during base‐flow conditions may be a useful screening tool for P risk‐based management programs.     

The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients1

Schwarz, Gregory E., Richard B. Alexander, Richard A. Smith, and Stephen D. Preston, 2011. The Regionalization of National‐Scale SPARROW Models for Stream Nutrients. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1151‐1172. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00581.x Abstract: This analysis modifies the parsimonious specification of recently published total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) national‐scale SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes models to allow each model coefficient to vary geographically among three major river basins of the conterminous United States. Regionalization of the national models reduces the standard errors in the prediction of TN and TP loads, expressed as a percentage of the predicted load, by about 6 and 7%. We develop and apply a method for combining national‐scale and regional‐scale information to estimate a hybrid model that imposes cross‐region constraints that limit regional variation in model coefficients, effectively reducing the number of free model parameters as compared to a collection of independent regional models. The hybrid TN and TP regional models have improved model fit relative to the respective national models, reducing the standard error in the prediction of loads, expressed as a percentage of load, by about 5 and 4%. Only 19% of the TN hybrid model coefficients and just 2% of the TP hybrid model coefficients show evidence of substantial regional specificity (more than ±100% deviation from the national model estimate). The hybrid models have much greater precision in the estimated coefficients than do the unconstrained regional models, demonstrating the efficacy of pooling information across regions to improve regional models.     

Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico from Streams in the South‐Central United States1

Rebich, Richard A., Natalie A. Houston, Scott V. Mize, Daniel K. Pearson, Patricia B. Ging, and C. Evan Hornig, 2011. Sources and Delivery of Nutrients to the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico From Streams in the South‐Central United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):1061‐1086. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00583.x Abstract: SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models were developed to estimate nutrient inputs [total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP)] to the northwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico from streams in the South‐Central United States (U.S.). This area included drainages of the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas‐White‐Red, and Texas‐Gulf hydrologic regions. The models were standardized to reflect nutrient sources and stream conditions during 2002. Model predictions of nutrient loads (mass per time) and yields (mass per area per time) generally were greatest in streams in the eastern part of the region and along reaches near the Texas and Louisiana shoreline. The Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River watersheds, which drain nearly two‐thirds of the conterminous U.S., delivered the largest nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, as expected. However, the three largest delivered TN yields were from the Trinity River/Galveston Bay, Calcasieu River, and Aransas River watersheds, while the three largest delivered TP yields were from the Calcasieu River, Mermentau River, and Trinity River/Galveston Bay watersheds. Model output indicated that the three largest sources of nitrogen from the region were atmospheric deposition (42%), commercial fertilizer (20%), and livestock manure (unconfined, 17%). The three largest sources of phosphorus were commercial fertilizer (28%), urban runoff (23%), and livestock manure (confined and unconfined, 23%).     

Release,Dispersion, and Resuspension of Escherichia coli From Direct Fecal Deposits Under Controlled Flows1

Abstract: Water‐quality standards have been placed on fecal indicator organisms such as Escherichia coli in an attempt to limit the concentrations in water bodies. Cattle can be a significant source of bacteria to water systems, particularly when they are allowed direct access to streams. A flume study was conducted to quantify the effect and understand the transport of E. coli from directly deposited cattle manure. Five steady‐state flows, ranging from 0.00683 to 0.0176 m³/s, were studied and loads from a single cowpie exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s recommended water‐quality standards (235 CFU/100 ml) at each flow over the hour study period. Average E. coli concentrations ranged from 10² to 10⁵ CFU/100 ml over the hour sampling period for all flows. High spatial variations in E. coli concentrations were often seen at each sampling time, with higher concentrations typically at the bottom of the flume. E. coli resuspension was initially greater at 0.5 min after deposition, for the lowest flow (10⁵ CFU/m²/s); however, resuspension rates became similar over time, on the order of 10³ CFU/m²/s. This study demonstrates that the concentrations of E. coli can vary over the water column, and therefore grab samples may inaccurately measure bacteria concentrations and loads in streams. In addition, resuspension rates were often high, so the incorporation of this process into water‐quality models is important for bacteria prediction.     

Using Spatially Detailed Water‐Quality Data and Solute‐Transport Modeling to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development1

Walton‐Day, Katherine, Robert L. Runkel, and Briant A. Kimball, 2012. Using Spatially Detailed Water‐Quality Data and Solute‐Transport Modeling to Support Total Maximum Daily Load Development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 949‐969. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00662.x Abstract: Spatially detailed mass‐loading studies and solute‐transport modeling using OTIS (One‐dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage) demonstrate how natural attenuation and loading from distinct and diffuse sources control stream water quality and affect load reductions predicted in total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). Mass‐loading data collected during low‐flow from Cement Creek (a low‐pH, metal‐rich stream because of natural and mining sources, and subject to TMDL requirements) were used to calibrate OTIS and showed spatially variable effects of natural attenuation (instream reactions) and loading from diffuse (groundwater) and distinct sources. OTIS simulations of the possible effects of TMDL‐recommended remediation of mine sites showed less improvement to dissolved zinc load and concentration (14% decrease) than did the TMDL (53‐63% decrease). The TMDL (1) assumed conservative transport, (2) accounted for loads removed by remediation by subtracting them from total load at the stream mouth, and (3) did not include diffuse‐source loads. In OTIS, loads were reduced near their source; the resulting concentration was decreased by natural attenuation and increased by diffuse‐source loads during downstream transport. Thus, by not including natural attenuation and loading from diffuse sources, the TMDL overestimated remediation effects at low flow. Use of the techniques presented herein could improve TMDLs by incorporating these processes during TMDL development.     

Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells1

Johnson, R.L., B.R. Clark, M.K. Landon, L.J. Kauffman, and S.M. Eberts, 2011. Modeling the Potential Impact of Seasonal and Inactive Multi‐Aquifer Wells on Contaminant Movement to Public Water‐Supply Wells. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):588‐596. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00526.x Abstract: Wells screened across multiple aquifers can provide pathways for the movement of surprisingly large volumes of groundwater to confined aquifers used for public water supply (PWS). Using a simple numerical model, we examine the impact of several pumping scenarios on leakage from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer and conclude that a single inactive multi‐aquifer well can contribute nearly 10% of total PWS well flow over a wide range of pumping rates. This leakage can occur even when the multi‐aquifer well is more than a kilometer from the PWS well. The contribution from multi‐aquifer wells may be greater under conditions where seasonal pumping (e.g., irrigation) creates large, widespread downward hydraulic gradients between aquifers. Under those conditions, water can continue to leak down a multi‐aquifer well from an unconfined aquifer to a confined aquifer even when those multi‐aquifer wells are actively pumped. An important implication is that, if an unconfined aquifer is contaminated, multi‐aquifer wells can increase the vulnerability of a confined‐aquifer PWS well.     

Grass‐Shrub Riparian Buffer Removal of Sediment,Phosphorus, and Nitrogen From Simulated Runoff1

Abstract: Riparian buffer forests and vegetative filter strips are widely recommended for improving surface water quality, but grass‐shrub riparian buffer system (RBSs) are less well studied. The objective of this study was to assess the influence of buffer width and vegetation type on the key processes and overall reductions of total suspended solids (TSS), phosphorus (P), and nitrogen (N) from simulated runoff passed through established (7‐year old) RBSs. Nine 1‐m RBS plots, with three replicates of three vegetation types (all natural selection grasses, two‐segment buffer with native grasses and plum shrub, and two‐segment buffer with natural selection grasses and plum shrub) and widths ranging from 8.3 to 16.1 m, received simulated runoff having 4,433 mg/l TSS from on‐site soil, 1.6 mg/l total P, and 20 mg/l total N. Flow‐weighted samples were collected by using Runoff Sampling System (ROSS) units. The buffers were very efficient in removal of sediments, N, and P, with removal efficiencies strongly linked to infiltration. Mass and concentration reductions averaged 99.7% and 97.9% for TSS, 91.8% and 42.9% for total P, and 92.1% and 44.4% for total N. Infiltration alone could account for >75% of TSS removal, >90% of total P removal, and >90% of total N removal. Vegetation type induced significant differences in removal of TSS, total P, and total N. These results demonstrate that adequately designed and implemented grass‐shrub buffers with widths of only 8 m provide for water quality improvement, particularly if adequate infiltration is achieved.     

Model Calculations of Total Maximum Daily Loads of Mercury for Drainage Lakes1

Abstract: The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework watershed model was enhanced to simulate the transport and fate of mercury and to calculate the fish mercury concentrations (FMC) attained by fish through the food web. The model was applied to Western Lake Superior Basin of Minnesota, which has many peat lands and lakes. Topographic, land use, and soil data were used to set up the model. Meteorology and precipitation chemistry data from nearby monitoring stations were compiled to drive the model. Simulated flow and mercury concentrations for several stream stations were comparable to available data. The model was used to perform mercury total maximum daily load calculations for two contrasting drainage lakes (Wild Rice Lake and Whiteface Reservoir). The model results for wet deposition, dry deposition, evasion, watershed yield, and soil sequestration of mercury were comparable with available actual data. The model predicted lake ice cover from November to April and weak stratification in summer, typical of shallow lakes in cold regions. The simulated sulfate decrease and methylmercury increase near the lake bottom in late summer are caused by sulfate reduction and mercury methylation that occur in the surficial sediment. Simulated FMC were within the range of observed values and the R² of correlation between the simulated and observed FMC was 0.77. Under the 1989‐2004 base condition, the average simulated FMC of four‐year‐old walleye was 0.31 μg/g for Whiteface Reservoir and 0.15 μg/g for Wild Rice Lake. The FMC criterion in Minnesota is 0.2 μg/g. Wild Rice Lake already meets this criterion without any load reduction. The model showed that a 65% reduction in atmospheric mercury deposition will not, by itself, allow Whiteface Reservoir to meet the criterion in 15 years. Additional best management practices will be needed to reduce 50% of the watershed input.     

Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States1

Moore, Richard B., Craig M. Johnston, Richard A. Smith, and Bryan Milstead, 2011. Source and Delivery of Nutrients to Receiving Waters in the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic Regions of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(5):965‐990. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00582.x Abstract: This study investigates nutrient sources and transport to receiving waters, in order to provide spatially detailed information to aid water‐resources managers concerned with eutrophication and nutrient management strategies. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nutrient models were developed for the Northeastern and Mid‐Atlantic (NE US) regions of the United States to represent source conditions for the year 2002. The model developed to examine the source and delivery of nitrogen to the estuaries of nine large rivers along the NE US Seaboard indicated that agricultural sources contribute the largest percentage (37%) of the total nitrogen load delivered to the estuaries. Point sources account for 28% while atmospheric deposition accounts for 20%. A second SPARROW model was used to examine the sources and delivery of phosphorus to lakes and reservoirs throughout the NE US. The greatest attenuation of phosphorus occurred in lakes that were large relative to the size of their watershed. Model results show that, within the NE US, aquatic decay of nutrients is quite limited on an annual basis and that we especially cannot rely on natural attenuation to remove nutrients within the larger rivers nor within lakes with large watersheds relative to the size of the lake.     

Impact of an Invasive Exotic Species on Stream Nitrogen Levels in Southern Illinois1

Abstract: Autumn‐olive (Elaeagnus umbellata Thunb.) is an invasive, exotic shrub that has become naturalized in the eastern United States. Autumn‐olive fixes nitrogen (N) via a symbiotic relationship with the actinomycete Frankia. At the plot scale, the presence of autumn‐olive has been related to elevated soil water nitrate‐N (NO₃^?‐N) concentrations. This study examined the relationship between autumn‐olive cover in a watershed and stream water quality. Stream water nitrate‐N (NO₃^?‐N) and ammonium‐N (NH₄⁺‐N) concentrations were measured in 12 first order ephemeral streams draining watersheds with mixed forest cover and a range of 0‐35% autumn‐olive cover. Percent autumn‐olive cover was positively correlated with mean stream NO₃^?‐N concentrations, but was not correlated with mean stream NH₄⁺‐N concentrations. While other studies have demonstrated a significant relationship between native N‐fixers and stream NO₃^?‐N, this is the first study to document a relationship for an invasive, exotic N‐fixing species. Results suggest that this exotic species can be an additional source of NO₃^? in local and regional water bodies and demonstrates an additional negative ecosystem consequence of invasion beyond losses in biodiversity.     

Development of a Quantitative Pasture Phosphorus Management Tool Using the SWAT Model1

Abstract: Assessment tools to evaluate phosphorus loss from agricultural lands allow conservation planners to evaluate the impact of management decisions on water quality. Available tools to predict phosphorus loss from agricultural fields are either: (1) qualitative indices with limited applicability to address offsite water quality standards, or (2) models which are prohibitively complex for application by most conservation planners. The purpose of this research was to develop a simple interface for a comprehensive hydrologic/water quality model to allow its usage by farmers and conservation planners. The Pasture Phosphorus Management (PPM) Calculator was developed to predict average annual phosphorus (P) losses from pastures under a variety of field conditions and management options. PPM Calculator is a vastly simplified interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that requires no knowledge of SWAT by the user. PPM Calculator was validated using 33 months of data on four pasture fields in northwestern Arkansas. This tool has been extensively applied in the Lake Eucha/Spavinaw Basin in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. PPM Calculator allows conservation planners to take advantage of the predictive capacity of a comprehensive hydrologic water quality model typically reserved for use by hydrologists and engineers. This research demonstrates the applicability of existing water quality models in the development of user friendly P management tools.     

Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.