Potential Impact of Afforestation on Water Yield in the Subalpine Region of Southwestern China1

Abstract: To combat its growing ecological problems, China has implemented a large‐scale Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP). Under the umbrella of this program, the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) was established in 1999 to return cultivated land with slopes of 25° or more to perennial vegetation. However, the regional impacts on water resource management that are incurred by afforestation have not been carefully evaluated, especially in the subalpine region of southwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to provide reference values for the SLCP by evaluating the potential impact of afforestation on water yield under different climatic regimes. Accordingly, evapotranspiration (ET) in cropland (CL), shrubland, and general forest was calculated using a modification of Thornthwaite’s method, and in coniferous forest, broad‐leaved forest (BF), and mixed coniferous and broad‐leaved forest (MF) using the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. The results of both approaches showed that afforestation reduces water yield by 9.6‐24.3% depending on the types of conversion and climatic conditions. Water‐yield reduction is greatest (>143.4 mm, or 24.3%) when CL is converted to BF in dry climate conditions. Compared with the other forest types studied, coniferous plantations prevented water‐yield reduction by as much as 9.6% because of their relatively low levels of ET. It is expected that implementation of the SLCP, together with continuing climate change, will further pressure regional water resources. Thus, the effectiveness of afforestation must be evaluated in a broader context while taking into account its positive ecological aspects, such as soil‐erosion control, the preservation of biodiversity, and the significant carbon sequestration provided by forests.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

我国森林碳汇市场综述与展望

在对近几年相关研究文献进行梳理的基础上,试图厘清现阶段我国森林碳汇市场的研究现状,并追溯我国森林碳汇市场研究的发展脉络.主要从构建我国森林碳汇市场的必要性、可行性与意义,森林碳汇储量测量、森林碳汇市场运行模式与运行机制等方面进行评述,并提出进一步研究展望.认为未来研究应在创新整合森林碳汇储量测量方法,从政治、法律、制度、政策、环境与市场机制方面整体考虑提升我国森林碳汇市场的选择路径,从供需视角加强对市场交易主体的微观层面研究等方面突破.     

Effects of Forest Composition and Spatial Patterns on Storm Flows of a Small Watershed1

Abstract: The PRMS_Storm model was built as a storm event, distributed hydrological model for studying the hydrological effects of forest composition and spatial distribution on storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates in the Xiangshuixi Watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, in the Yangtze River Basin in southwestern China. We developed three simulation scenarios based on forest composition and their spatial arrangements across the watershed, including all mixed conifer‐evergreen broadleaf forests (Scenario 1), all mixed evergreen broadleaf forests (Scenario 2), and mixed conifer + evergreen broadleaf + shrub forests (Scenario 3). We examined 11 storm events observed during 2002‐2005. Compared with the existing forest covers, modeling results suggested that the amount of overland flow was reduced by 21, 23, and 22%, and the interflow increased by 16, 88, and 30%, for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3, respectively. During the same time, peakflow rates were reduced by 20.8, 9.6, and 18.9%, respectively. The reduction of peakflow rates was most significant when rainfall intensity exceeded 0.8 mm/min and events with a short duration and effect was minor when rainfall intensity was below 0.5 mm/min. In general, we found that Scenarios 1 and 3 were preferred for reducing storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates due to their higher interception rates, large soil water holding capacity, and higher soil infiltration capacity. The modeled results suggested soil properties are important in affecting the flow processes and thus forest composition and forest spatial distributions will affect storm‐flow volume and peakflow rates at the watershed scale. To maximize flood reduction functions of a watershed, high priority should be given to those forest types (Scenarios 1 and 3) in reforestation practices in the study region. This study suggests both forest composition and spatial pattern are important reforestation designs for flood reduction in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.     

The Role of Climate and Human Influences in the Dry‐Up of the Jinci Springs,China1

Abstract: One of the largest karst springs in North China, the Jinci Springs, dried up and has remained dry since 1994. We develop a correlation analysis with time‐lag and a regression analysis with time‐lag to study the relation between spring flow and precipitation. This allows us to obtain a better understanding of karst hydrological processes by differentiating the contribution of variation in precipitation from anthropogenic impacts on the dry‐up of Jinci Springs. We divided the karstic hydrological processes into two phases: pre‐1961 and post‐1961. In the first phase (i.e., 1954‐1960) the groundwater recharge was affected by precipitation alone, and in the second phase (i.e., 1961‐1994) the groundwater recharge was influenced by both precipitation and human activities. Using precipitation and groundwater recharge data in the first phase, we set up a groundwater recharge model with time‐lags. By running the time‐lags model, we acquired the groundwater recharge likely to occur under the sole effect of precipitation in the second phase. Using a water‐balance calculation, we conclude that the groundwater recharge exhibited statistical stationarity, and the Jinci Springs dry‐up was the result of anthropogenic activities. At least three specific types of anthropogenic activities contributed to the drying‐up of Jinci Springs: (1) groundwater pumping accounts for 51%, (2) the dewatering from coal mining accounts for 33%, (3) and dam‐building 14%. The drying‐up of Jinci Springs meant that the groundwater drained from the aquifer’s fractures, and subsequently changed the structure of the karst aquifer. Although groundwater exploitation has been reduced, the flow at Jinci Springs has not reoccurred.     

Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho,Western Wyoming,and Northern Nevada1

Clark, Gregory M., 2010. Changes in Patterns of Streamflow From Unregulated Watersheds in Idaho, Western Wyoming, and Northern Nevada. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):486-497. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00416.x Abstract: Recent studies have identified a pattern of earlier spring runoff across much of North America. Earlier spring runoff potentially poses numerous problems, including increased risk of flooding and reduced summer water supply for irrigation, power generation, and migratory fish passage. To identify changing runoff patterns in Idaho streams, streamflow records were analyzed for 26 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Idaho, western Wyoming, and northern Nevada, each with a minimum of 41 years of record. The 26 stations are located on 23 unregulated and relatively pristine streams that drain areas ranging from 28 to >35,000 km². Four runoff parameters were trend tested at each station for both the period of historical record and from 1967 through 2007. Parameters tested were annual mean streamflow, annual minimum daily streamflow, and the dates of the 25th and 50th percentiles of the annual total streamflow. Results of a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test revealed a trend toward lower annual mean and annual minimum streamflows at a majority of the stations, as well as a trend toward earlier snowmelt runoff. Significant downward trends over the period of historical record were most prevalent for the annual minimum streamflow (12 stations) and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11 stations). At most stations, trends were more pronounced during the period from 1967 through 2007. A regional Kendall test for water years 1967 through 2007 revealed significant regional trends in the percent change in the annual mean and annual minimum streamflows (0.67% less per year and 0.62% less per year, respectively), the 25th percentile of streamflow (12.3 days earlier), and the 50th percentile of streamflow (11.5 days earlier).     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

干旱区防风固沙林建设与管理的进一步思考

根据干旱区的典型特点,突出"水"的问题,结合已有成果的经验,针对目前新疆防风固沙生态林建设与管理中存在的问题,就造林树种选择、林带结构、造林密度、用水方式等问题,从恢复生态学的理论高度提出一些供参考的想法。     

Effects of Groundwater-Flow Paths On Nitrate Concentrations Across Two Riparian Forest Corridors1

Speiran, Gary K., 2010. Effects of Groundwater-Flow Paths on Nitrate Concentrations Across Two Riparian Forest Corridors. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):246-260. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00427.x Abstract: Groundwater levels, apparent age, and chemistry from field sites and groundwater-flow modeling of hypothetical aquifers collectively indicate that groundwater-flow paths contribute to differences in nitrate concentrations across riparian corridors. At sites in Virginia (one coastal and one Piedmont), lowland forested wetlands separate upland fields from nearby surface waters (an estuary and a stream). At the coastal site, nitrate concentrations near the water table decreased from more than 10 mg/l beneath fields to 2 mg/l beneath a riparian forest buffer because recharge through the buffer forced water with concentrations greater than 5 mg/l to flow deeper beneath the buffer. Diurnal changes in groundwater levels up to 0.25 meters at the coastal site reflect flow from the water table into unsaturated soil where roots remove water and nitrate dissolved in it. Decreases in aquifer thickness caused by declines in the water table and decreases in horizontal hydraulic gradients from the uplands to the wetlands indicate that more than 95% of the groundwater discharged to the wetlands. Such discharge through organic soil can reduce nitrate concentrations by denitrification. Model simulations are consistent with field results, showing downward flow approaching toe slopes and surface waters to which groundwater discharges. These effects show the importance of buffer placement over use of fixed-width, streamside buffers to control nitrate concentrations.     

Watershed Evapotranspiration Increased due to Changes in Vegetation Composition and Structure Under a Subtropical Climate1

Abstract: Natural forests in southern China have been severely logged due to high human demand for timber, food, and fuels during the past century, but are recovering in the past decade. The objective of this study was to investigate how vegetation cover changes in composition and structure affected the water budgets of a 9.6‐km² Dakeng watershed located in a humid subtropical mountainous region in southern China. We analyzed 27 years (i.e., 1967‐1993) of streamflow and climate data and associated vegetation cover change in the watershed. Land use/land cover census and Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index (NDVI) data derived from remote sensing were used to construct historic land cover change patterns. We found that over the period of record, annual streamflow (Q) and runoff/precipitation ratio did not change significantly, nor did the climatic variables, including air temperature, Hamon’s potential evapotranspiration (ET), pan evaporation, sunshine hours, and radiation. However, annual ET estimated as the differences between P and Q showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Overall, the NDVI of the watershed had a significant increasing trend in the peak spring growing season. This study concluded that watershed ecosystem ET increased as the vegetation cover shifted from low stock forests to shrub and grasslands that had higher ET rates. A conceptual model was developed for the study watershed to describe the vegetation cover‐streamflow relationships during a 50‐year time frame. This paper highlighted the importance of eco‐physiologically based studies in understanding transitory, nonstationary effects of deforestation or forestation on watershed water balances.     

The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska1

Clilverd, Hannah M., Daniel M. White, Amy C. Tidwell, and Michael A. Rawlins, 2011. The Sensitivity of Northern Groundwater Recharge to Climate Change: A Case Study in Northwest Alaska. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1228–1240. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00569.x Abstract: The potential impacts of climate change on northern groundwater supplies were examined at a fractured‐marble mountain aquifer near Nome, Alaska. Well water surface elevations (WSE) were monitored from 2004‐2009 and analyzed with local meteorological data. Future aquifer response was simulated with the Pan‐Arctic Water Balance Model (PWBM) using forcings (air temperature and precipitation) derived from fifth‐generation European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global circulation model climate scenarios for extreme and modest increases in greenhouse gases. We observed changes in WSE due to the onset of spring snowmelt, low intensity and high intensity rainfall events, and aquifer head recession during the winter freeze period. Observed WSE and snow depth compared well with PWBM‐simulated groundwater recharge and snow storage. Using ECHAM5‐simulated increases in mean annual temperature of 4‐8°C by 2099, the PWBM predicted that by 2099 later freeze‐up and earlier snowmelt will decrease seasonal snow cover by one to two months. Annual evapotranspiration and precipitation are predicted to increase 27‐40% (55‐81 mm) and 33‐42% (81‐102 mm), respectively, with the proportion of snowfall in annual precipitation decreasing on average 9‐25% (p < 0.05). The amount of snowmelt is not predicted to change significantly by 2099; however, a decreasing trend is evident from 2060 in the extreme ECHAM5 greenhouse gas scenario. Increases in effective precipitation were predicted to be great enough to sustain sufficient groundwater recharge.     

Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed,Ethiopia Using SWAT Model1

Setegn, Shimelis G., Bijan Dargahi, Ragahavan Srinivasan, and Assefa M. Melesse, 2010. Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):514-526. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00431.x Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of sediment yield in Anjeni-gauged watershed, Ethiopia. Soil erosion and land degradation is a major problem on the Ethiopian highlands. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance and applicability of SWAT model in predicting monthly sediment yield and assess the impacts of subbasin delineation and slope discretization on the prediction of sediment yield. Ten years monthly meteorological, flow and sediment data were used for model calibration and validation. The annual average measured sediment yield was 24.6 tonnes/ha. The annual average simulated sediment yield was 27.8 and 29.5 tones/ha for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The study found that the observed values showed good agreement with the simulated sediment yield with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.81, percent bias (PBIAS) = 28%, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) = 0.23, and coefficient of determination (R²) = 0.86 for calibration and NSE = 0.79, PBIAS = 30%, RSR = 0.29, and R² = 0.84 for validation periods. The model can be used for further analysis of different management scenarios that could help different stakeholders to plan and implement appropriate soil and water conservation strategies.     

中国森林生态旅游资源的开发与保护

本文分析了我国森林生态旅游资源的现状和开发状况，从深度和广度上论述了森林生态旅游开发的内容，在开发与保护问题上强调必须坚持生态经济的原则，把保护放在首要地位，并提出了相应的措施。     

Fate and Transport Modeling of Potential Pathogens: The Contribution From Sediments1

Abstract: Escherichia coli was used as a bacterial tracer for the development, calibration, and validation of a watershed scale fate and transport model to be extended to a suite of reference pathogens (Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Campylobacter, E. coli O157:H7). E. coli densities in water and sediments from the Blackstone River Watershed, Massachusetts, were measured at three sites for a total of five wet weather events and three dry weather events covering three seasons. The confirmed E. coli strains were identified by ribotyping for tracking the sources of E. coli and for determining the association of downstream E. coli isolates with isolates from upstream sediments. A large number of downstream samples were associated with upstream sediment sources of E. coli. E. coli densities ranged from 71 to 6,401 MPN/100 ml in water samples and from 2 to 335 MPN/g in sediments. Pearson correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between E. coli and total coliforms in water (r = 0.777, p < 0.01) and sediments (r = 0.728, p < 0.01). In addition, E. coli concentrations in water were weakly correlated with sediment particle size and sediment concentrations (r = 0.298, p < 0.01). A hydrologic model, WATFLOOD/SPL9, was used to predict the temporal and spatial variation of E. coli in the Blackstone River. The rapid rise of stream E. coli densities was more accurately predicted by the model with the inclusion of sediment resuspension, thus demonstrating the importance of the process.     

发展我国森林生态旅游的对策思考

作者以生态旅游理论为基础，分析了我国森林生态旅游的发展状况，并以加入WTO为背景从中找出存在的问题，进而提出入世后推进我国森林生态旅游发展的对策。     

Impacts of Multiple Stresses on Water Demand and Supply Across the Southeastern United States1

Abstract: Assessment of long‐term impacts of projected changes in climate, population, and land use and land cover on regional water resource is critical to the sustainable development of the southeastern United States. The objective of this study was to fully budget annual water availability for water supply (precipitation ? evapotranspiration + groundwater supply + return flow) and demand from commercial, domestic, industrial, irrigation, livestock, mining, and thermoelectric uses. The Water Supply Stress Index and Water Supply Stress Index Ratio were developed to evaluate water stress conditions over time and across the 666 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins in the 13 southeastern states. Predictions from two Global Circulation Models (CGC1 and HadCM2Sul), one land use change model, and one human population model, were integrated to project future water supply stress in 2020. We found that population increase greatly stressed water supply in metropolitan areas located in the Piedmont region and Florida. Predicted land use and land cover changes will have little effect on water quantity and water supply‐water demand relationship. In contrast, climate changes had the most pronounced effects on regional water supply and demand, especially in western Texas where water stress was historically highest in the study region. The simulation system developed by this study is useful for water resource planners to address water shortage problems such as those experienced during 2007 in the study region. Future studies should focus on refining the water supply term to include flow exchanges between watersheds and constraints of water quality and environmental flows to water availability for human use.     

Hydrologic Modeling of an Extreme Flood in the Guadalupe River in Texas1

Sharif, Hatim O., Almoutaz A. Hassan, Sazzad Bin-Shafique, Hongjie Xie, and Jon Zeitler, 2010. Hydrologic Modeling of an Extreme Flood in the Guadalupe River in Texas. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00459.x Abstract: Many of the storms creating the greatest rainfall depths in Texas, measured over durations ranging from one minute to 48 hours, have occurred in the Texas Hill Country area. The upstream portion of the Guadalupe River Basin, located in the Texas Hill Country, is susceptible to flooding and rapid runoff due to thin soils, exposed bedrock, and sparse vegetation, in addition to the Balcones Escarpment uplift contributing to precipitation enhancement. In November 2004, a moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico combined with moist air from the Pacific Ocean resulted in the wettest November in Texas since 1895. Although the peak discharges were not the highest on record, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge on the Guadalupe River at Gonzales, Texas reported a daily mean discharge of 2,304 m³/s on November 23, 2004 (average discharge is 53 m³/s). In this paper, we examine the meteorological conditions that led to this event and apply a two-dimensional, physically based, distributed-parameter hydrologic model to simulate the response of a portion of the basin during this event. The study results clearly demonstrate the ability of physically based, distributed-parameter simulations, driven by operational radar rainfall products, to adequately model the cumulative effect of two rainfall events and route inflows from three upstream watersheds without the need for significant calibration.     

The Forest‐Streamflow Relationship in China: A 40‐Year Retrospect1

Abstract: The relationship between forests and streamflows has long been an important research interest in China. The purpose of this paper is to summarize progress and lessons learned from the forest‐streamflow studies over the past four decades in China. To better measure the research gaps between China and other parts of the world, a brief global review on the findings from paired watershed studies over the past 100 years was also provided. In China, forest management shifted in the later 1990s from timber harvesting to forest restoration. Forest‐streamflow research was accordingly changed from assessing harvesting impacts to evaluating both harvesting and forestation effects. Over the past four decades, Chinese forest hydrology research has grown substantially. Significant progress has been made on measuring individual processes, but little solid, long‐term data were available to assess the relationship between forest changes and streamflows because of an absence of standard paired watersheds. In addition, misuse of statistical analyses was often found in the literature. A unique opportunity exists in China to study the forestation effects on streamflow as several large‐scale forestation programs are being implemented. Such an opportunity should include a robust paired watershed design under an integrated watershed ecosystem framework to avoid repeating the lessons already learned. Recommendations on future forest‐streamflow research directions in China are provided.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Responses Simulation for Conversion Cropland to Forest in Mountains by SWAT in China

Several environmental protection policies have been implemented to prevent soil erosion and nonpoint source (NPS) pollutions in China. After severe Yangtze River floods, the “conversion cropland to forest policy” (CCFP) was carried out throughout China, especially in the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River. The research area of the current study is located in Bazhong City, Sichuan Province in Yangtze River watershed, where soil erosion and NPS pollution are serious concerns. Major NPS pollutants include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term impact of implementation of the CCFP on stream flow, sediment yields, and the main NPS pollutant loading at watershed level. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a watershed environmental model and is applied here to simulate and quantify the impacts. Four scenarios are constructed representing different patterns of conversion from cropland to forest under various conditions set by the CCFP. Scenario A represented the baseline, i.e., the cropland and forest area conditions before the implementation of CCFP. Scenario B represents the condition under which all hillside cropland with slope larger than 25° was converted into forest. In scenario C and D, hillside cropland with slope larger than 15° and 7.5° was substituted by forest, respectively. Under the various scenarios, the NPS pollution reduction due to CCFP implementation from 1996–2005 is estimated by SWAT. The results are presented as percentage change of water flow, sediment, organic N, and organic P at watershed level. Furthermore, a regression analysis is conducted between forest area ratio and ten years’ average NPS load estimations, which confirmed the benefits of implementing CCFP in reducing nonpoint source pollution by increasing forest area in mountainous areas. The reduction of organic N and organic P is significant (decrease 42.1% and 62.7%, respectively) at watershed level. In addition, this study also proves that SWAT modeling approach can be used to estimate NPS pollutants’ impacts of land use conversions in large watershed.