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1.
This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.  相似文献   

2.
This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas and the ecological half-life of the radionuclide in the sea. Uncertainties in these factors generally dominate all other uncertainties, e.g., concerning the surface water retention time, the settling velocity of the particulate fraction, the distribution coefficient regulating the fluxes in dissolved and particulate phases, the catchment area influences and the factors regulating biouptake and excretion of the radionuclide in fish. This means that the conditions in the sea are of paramount importance for the conditions in the coastal area, even for relatively enclosed coastal areas. This coastal model may be regarded as a tool for testing working hypotheses on the relative roles of different processes in different coastal areas. Such information is essential for getting realistic expectations of various remedial measures, such as coastal dredging discussed in this work.  相似文献   

3.
With the ending of the Cold War, the US and other nations were faced with a legacy of nuclear wastes. For some sites where hazardous nuclear wastes will remain in place, methods must be developed to protect human health and the environment. Biomonitoring is one method of assessing the status and trends of potential radionuclide exposure from nuclear waste sites, and of providing the public with early warning of any potential harmful exposure. Amchitka Island (51 degrees N lat, 179 degrees E long) was the site of three underground nuclear tests from 1965 to 1971. Following a substantive study of radionuclide levels in biota from the marine environment around Amchitka and a reference site, we developed a suite of bioindicators (with suggested isotopes) that can serve as a model for other sites contaminated with radionuclides. Although the species selection was site-specific, the methods can provide a framework for other sites. We selected bioindicators using five criteria: (1) occurrence at all three test shots (and reference site), (2) receptor groups (subsistence foods, commercial species, and food chain nodes), (3) species groups (plants, invertebrates, fish, and birds), (4) trophic levels, and (5) an accumulator of one or several radionuclides. Our major objective was to identify bioindicators that could serve for both human health and the ecosystem, and were abundant enough to collect adjacent to the three test sites and at the reference site. Site-specific information on both biota availability and isotope levels was essential in the final selection of bioindicators. Actinides bioaccumulated in algae and invertebrates, while radiocesium accumulated in higher trophic level birds and fish. Thus, unlike biomonitoring schemes developed for heavy metals or other contaminants, top-level predators are not sufficient to evaluate potential radionuclide exposure at Amchitka. The process described in this paper resulted in the selection of Fucus, Alaria fistulosa, blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus), dolly varden (Salvelinus malma), black rockfish (Sebastes melanops), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), and glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens) as bioindicators. This combination of species included mainly subsistence foods, commercial fish, and nodes on different food chains.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents results of a model test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The aim of the work was to change the structure of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium so that it can be applied more generally for, in principle, all types of radionuclides and heavy metals. This general lake model is used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). The model is based on a set of differential equations and a specific modelling structure. It incorporates all important fluxes to, from and within lakes in a general manner. Yet the model is driven by a minimum of variables accessible from standard maps and monitoring programs. The model can be separated into two parts, a general part with equations applicable for all types of water pollutants and a substance-specific part. This model has previously been validated for 137Cs from many lakes covering a wide domain and yielded excellent predictive power. The alterations discussed in this work are meant to be general and radiostrontium is used as a typical element. Radiostrontium is known to be more mobile than radiocesium and all abiotic parts of the model handling fixation and mobility have been altered. The new model for 90Sr has been critically tested using data from four lakes heavily contaminated with 90Sr from the Kyshtym accident in the Southern Urals, Russia, using empirical data from a period from 1958 to 1995 for 90Sr in fish (here goldfish), water and sediments.  相似文献   

5.
This paper gives the yearly (85)Kr emissions of all known reprocessing facilities, which are the main sources of (85)Kr in the atmosphere since 1945, for the years 1945 until 2000. According to this inventory 10,600 PBq (Peta=10(15)) of (85)Kr have been globally emitted from the year 1945 until the end of 2000. The global atmospheric inventory at the end of the year 2000 amounts to 4800 PBq. These emissions have been incorporated into the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model as point sources. Monthly mean model results are compared with measurements made at different locations and times. The influence of each source on the measured concentrations at various locations is studied. The calculated concentrations are found to give reasonably good agreement with the observations, indicating that the emission inventory is realistic. Although, at all northern hemispheric observation sites the model tends to slightly overestimate the concentrations. A possible reason for this overestimation can be found in model features (coarse resolution in time and space). The most prominent discrepancy that is consistently repeated at all northern hemispheric stations occurs in the early 1990s. This could most likely be related to an overestimate of sources. Possibly, the Russian emissions declined earlier than assumed in the current database. Another discrepancy between observations and simulations indicating an incompleteness of the release data is found at some southern hemispheric sites. The variability of their observations could only be explained by regional sources. However, several spikes occur after 1992 when no reprocessing facility is known to be in operation in the southern hemisphere. Production of isotopes for radiopharmaceuticals like technetium-99m from highly enriched uranium is the most likely explanation.  相似文献   

6.
A dynamic model for assessing the transfer of several radionuclides ((58)Co, (60)Co, (110 m)Ag, (134)Cs, (137)Cs, (54)Mn and (131)I) in a food-chain was applied on the Loire river, where 14 nuclear power plants situated on five different sites operate. The model considers the following potential exposure pathways: (i) transfer of radionuclides through the aquatic food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated water and/or fish; (ii) use of river water for agricultural purposes (irrigation), transfer of radionuclides through the terrestrial food chain and the subsequent internal exposure of humans due to ingestion of contaminated foodstuffs; (iii) internal exposure due to inhalation of dust originating from resuspension of contaminated soil particles; (iv) external exposure from radionuclides present in the river or deposited on the river sediments or the soil. For each of the parameters introduced in this model, a probability density function, allowing further uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, was proposed. Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis were performed to: (i) compare calculations to empirical data; (ii) determine a confidence interval for the mean annual dose to critical groups; and (iii) identify the parameters responsible for the uncertainty and subsequent research priorities.  相似文献   

7.
The paper demonstrates why it is necessary to take the restoration of marine coastal ecosystem health as a new goal for integrated catchment management, in coastal area of the Tolo Harbour. The present goal of integrated catchment management (ICM) in the Tolo Harbour is to meet with Water Quality Objectives. The performance of an ICM plan, Tolo Harbour Action Plan (THAP), is evaluated by using marine coastal ecosystem health indicators including stress indicators and responses indicators. Since the implementation of THAP in 1988, some significant reduction in pollution loading has been observed - reduction of 83 % of BOD load and 82 % of TN between 1988 and 1999. There has been an improvement in the health state of Tolo Harbour marine coastal ecosystem as evidenced in the trends of the physical, chemical and biological indicators, although some reverse fluctuations in some periods exist. However, this can only be considered as the first sign of the ecosystem health restoration, since ecosystem health co  相似文献   

8.
空气污染对居民公共健康的影响,引起了人们高度的关注。但大多数学者研究从样本的独立性出发且不考虑内生性问题,忽视区域之间空间相关性,所得结论和政策建议需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于Grossman中国宏观健康生产函数,选取2001—2014年中国广东省珠江三角洲9个城市作为样本,选择以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)作为空气污染的代理指标,在充分考虑空间效应和严格假设检验的基础上选择合适的空间计量经济学模型,对此进行实证研究。主要研究结果显示:空气污染对居民的公共健康带来了负面影响,即PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每增加1%,导致哮喘疾病和内科门诊等疾病人数不断上升,且影响都比较大,尤其是对哮喘疾病的影响分别为0.2236%和0.2272%。经济增长对公共健康均有显著的促进作用,影响最大;其它财政医疗支出、卫生技术人员和人口密度等要素对居民公共健康的影响较小。由于空气污染的负外部性,研究还发现,区域之间空气污染的"溢出效应"对领域居民公共健康存在显著的影响,说明忽视空间自相关性的存在,会使得空气污染对公众健康的估计产生偏差。从长期看,空气污染对本地居民公共健康的直接效应都显著为正,PM_(2.5)间接效应显著为负,但PM_(10)间接效应并不显著。因此,各级政府除了在源头上治理污染物的排放,提高公共健康水平外,还应该打破各自为阵的行政垄断,应该作为一个整体,实现跨区域环保合作,共同治理和制定公共卫生政策等。这对区域之间协同减排和保护居民公共健康具有重要的理论和现实意义。  相似文献   

9.
Conserving irreplaceable, archived serum samples may sometimes conflict with the objective of minimizing measurement error due to laboratory effects. We sought to determine whether we could successfully combine assay results for DDT-related compounds and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in serum from the same birth cohort obtained from different laboratories over time. Using the Child Health and Development Studies (CHDS) serum archive, we compared variability for assays of a quality control pool to variability for assays of subject serum. The quality control pool was created from native archived serum samples that were pooled, then aliquoted, blinded and inserted pair-wise into assay batches along with the subject serum for 5 studies using CHDS samples conducted over a 13year period by three different laboratories. We found that the variability between laboratory and over time within laboratory was small relative to inter-individual variability for p,p'-DDT (1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethane), p,p'-DDE (1,1'-dichloro-2,2'-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene) and o,p'-DDT (1,1,1-trichloro-2-(p-chlorophenyl)-2-(o-chlorophenyl)-ethane). Results were also consistent for most PCB congeners which were detectable in 85% or more of samples. Our results suggest that it is possible to combine assays for DDT and PCB congeners measured at positive levels as they are accumulated for cohort subjects without risking meaningful misclassification due to variation stemming from laboratory or time period. This has significant implications for future study costs, conservation of irreplaceable archived samples and for leveraging past investments for future research. For PCB congeners with very low levels, findings caution against pooling of assays without further exploration.  相似文献   

10.
This paper presents results of a model-test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The tested model is a new lake model for radiocesium to be used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). This model has previously been validated against independent data from many lakes covering a wide domain of lake characteristics and been demonstrated to yield excellent predictive power (see H?kanson, Modelling Radiocesium in Lakes and Coastal Areas. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2000, 215 pp). However, the model has not been tested before for cases other than those related to the Chernobyl fallout in 1986, nor for lakes from this part of the world (Southern Urals) and nor for situations with such heavy fallout as this. The aims of this work were: (1) to carry out a blind test of the model for the case of continental Lake Uruskul, heavily contaminated with 90Sr and 137Cs as a result of the Kyshtym radiation accident (29 September 1957) in the Southern Urals, Russia, and (2) if these tests gave satisfactory results to reconstruct the radiocesium dynamics for fish, water and sediments in the lake. Can the model provide meaningful predictions in a situation such as this? The answer is yes, although there are reservations due to the scarcity of reliable empirical data. From the modelling calculations, it may be noted that the maximum levels of 137Cs in fish (here 400 g ww goldfish), water and sediments were about 100,000 Bq/kg ww, 600 Bq/l and 30,000 Bq/kg dw, respectively. The values in fish are comparable to or higher than the levels in fish in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP. The model also predicts an interesting seasonal pattern in 137Cs levels in sediments. There is also a characteristic "three phase" development for the 137Cs levels in fish: first an initial stage when the 137Cs concentrations in fish approach a maximum value, then a phase with relatively short ecological half-lives followed by a final phase with long ecological half-lives more or less corresponding to the physical decay of radiocesium.  相似文献   

11.
Results are presented from a study of the distribution of heavy metals in street dusts of two cities in Midland England. The first (Birmingham) is a large urban area (population of 2.3 million), the second, Coventry, a small one (population of 0.3 million). Several trends were identified from Birmingham: higher concentrations were located near industrial areas in the northwest of the city and within the ring road. However, lower concentrations were found to the southwest in areas of mainly residential properties and parks. High values were also identified in association with junctions controlled by traffic lights where vehicles were likely to stop regularly. This last trend was further investigated in Coventry, where it was found that concentrations of heavy metals at junctions controlled by traffic signals and by pedestrian-controlled pelican lights (Mounted Pelican Controller, MPCs) were lower than those found in Birmingham, apart from Ni.  相似文献   

12.
Mosses are frequently used as biomonitors for trace element pollution in the aquatic environment. The purpose of this study was to assess their usefulness as a tool in monitoring and in regional surveys of radioactive contamination. Specimens of the aquatic mosses, Fontinalis antipyretica and F. dalecarlica, were transplanted from non-contaminated areas to streams and rivers in the Norwegian Jotunheimen Mountains and neighbouring lowland areas that had received radioactive fallout after the Chernobyl accident. Equilibrium concentrations of 137Cs in the exposed mosses were reached after a few weeks. Two series from 20 streams in 1994 and 1996 show linear correlations between activities in water and moss samples and biomagnification ratios of 10(4) - 10(5). We conclude that mosses are better suited for monitoring purposes than water samples, because they provide values integrated over weeks while the radioactivity in surface waters can be subject to rapid variations according to hydrological events. The activity concentrations in aquatic mosses can be easily measured with good precision even when aqueous concentrations are below the limit of detection. Use of aquatic mosses also reduces the logistic problems of transporting large volumes of water, especially in areas inaccessible by road.  相似文献   

13.
Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) are used as flame retardants in a wide variety of products. As part of the Integrated Exposure Assessment Survey (INES), this study aimed to characterize the exposure of an adult German population using duplicate diet samples, which were collected daily over seven consecutive days, and indoor air and house dust measurements. Our study population consisted of 27 female and 23 male healthy subjects, aged 14–60 years, all of whom resided in 34 homes in southern Bavaria. In these 34 residences the air was sampled using glass fiber filters and polyurethane foams and the dust was collected from used vacuum cleaner bags.The median (95th percentile) daily dietary intake of six Tetra- to HeptaBDE congeners was 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (3.3 ng/kg b.w.) or 67.8 ng/day (208 ng/day) (calculated from the 7-day median values of each study subject). Concentrations in indoor air and dust (cumulative Tri- to DecaBDE congener readings) ranged from 8.2 to 477 pg/m³ (median: 37.8 pg/m³) and 36.6 to 1580 ng/g (median: 386 ng/g), respectively. For some congeners, we identified a significant correlation between air and dust levels.The median (95th percentile) blood concentration of total Tetra- to HexaBDE congener readings was 5.6 (13.2) ng/g lipid. No significant sex differences were observed, but higher blood concentrations were found in younger participants. Using a simplified toxicokinetic model to predict the body burden from exposure doses led to results that were of the same order of magnitude as the measured blood concentrations.Based on these measurements and given our exposure assumptions, we estimated for the total tetra- to heptabrominated congener count an average (high) comprehensive total daily intake of 1.2 ng/kg b.w. (2.5 ng/kg b.w.). Overall, our results suggest that dietary exposure is the dominant intake pathway at least in our study population, responsible for 97% (average intake) and 95% (high intake) of the total intake of an adult population.  相似文献   

14.
A dynamic model of plutonium behaviour in the marine environment has been developed, representing the oxidation state distribution and partitioning of plutonium between the soluble, colloidal, suspended particulate and seabed sediment fractions. With simple re-parameterisation, this model can also be applied to (137)Cs. The model, which is calibrated and validated against field data, has been used to predict concentrations of Pu(alpha) and (137)Cs in both water and seabed sediments from the vicinity of the Sellafield Ltd. reprocessing plant in Cumbria, UK. The model predicts that sediment reworking and transport are the key environmental processes as the Sellafield Pu(alpha) and (137)Cs discharge continues to decline. Inventory calculations generated by the model are consistent with previous estimations. For a hypothetical post-discharge scenario, the concentrations of these radionuclides in both seawater and surface sediments are predicted to decrease sharply, concurrent with a downward vertical migration of the activity retained in sediments.  相似文献   

15.
OBJECTIVE: This November 2003 pilot study investigates the correlation between serum IgE and residential endotoxin levels from a group of 18 pregnant women living in Trujillo, Peru, and investigates the impact of the demographic and lifestyle factors of this group on the IgE and endotoxin levels measured. METHODS: Serum samples were collected from 19 subjects and analyzed for IgE. Dust samples were collected from the mattresses of 18 subjects and measured for endotoxin levels. A questionnaire was used to obtain demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle information for each subject. RESULTS: Geometric means for IgE and endotoxin were 246.8 (GSD=4.3, n=19) IU/mL and 66.5 EU/mg (GSD=1.7, n=18), respectively. Log-transformed IgE and endotoxin were not correlated (R2=0.02; p=0.60). CONCLUSIONS: Residential endotoxin and serum IgE were not correlated in this group. Potential selection bias and sample size are major limitations of the study. However, 74% (14/19) of the subjects in this study had an IgE over 100 IU/mL, a level generally considered elevated.  相似文献   

16.
In general, the issue of climate change is characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and multifacetedness. In the Netherlands, climate change is in above highly controversial. These characteristics make it difficult to realize adaptation measures that are perceived as legitimate. In this article, we analyze the main difficulties and dilemmas with regard to the issue of legitimacy in the context of climate adaptation. We conceptualize legitimacy from a legal, a planning, and a network perspective and show how the concept of legitimacy evolves within these three perspectives. From a legal perspective, the focus is on the issues of good governance. From a planning perspective, the focus is on the flexibility, learning, and governance capacity. From a network perspective, issues of dialogue, involvement, and support are important. These perspectives bring in different criteria, which are not easy compatible. We describe and illustrate these legitimacy challenges using an in-depth study of the Dutch IJsseldelta Zuid case. From our case study, we conclude that, from a legitimacy perspective, the often acclaimed necessity to be adaptive and flexible is quite problematic. The same holds true for the plea to mainstream adaptation into other policy domains. In our case study, these strategies give rise to serious challenges in relation to good governance and consensus—two indispensable cornerstones of legitimacy.  相似文献   

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The cabin of an automobile can be considered to be a part of the living environment because many people spend long periods of time during business, shopping, recreation or travel activities. However, little is known about the interior air contamination due to organic compounds diffusing from the interior materials used in the interior of automobiles. In the present study, the compounds in the interior air of a new car were identified, and the time courses of their concentrations were examined for over 3 years after the delivery (July, 1999). A total of 162 organic compounds, involving many aliphatic hydrocarbons and aromatic hydrocarbons, were identified. High concentrations of n-nonane (458 microg/m(3) on the day following delivery), n-decane (1301 microg/m(3)), n-undecane (1616 microg/m(3)), n-dodecane (716 microg/m(3)), n-tridecane (320 microg/m(3)), 1-hexadecene (768 microg/m(3)), ethylbenzene (361 microg/m(3)), xylene (4003 microg/m(3)) and 2,2'-azobis(isobutyronitrile) (429 microg/m(3)) were detected, and the sum of the concentrations determined for all compounds excluding formaldehyde (TVOC) was approximately 14 mg/m(3) on the day after the delivery. The concentrations of most compounds decreased with time, but increased with a rise of the interior temperature. The TVOC concentration in the next summer (July, 2000) was approximately one-tenth of the initial concentration. During the 3-year study period, the TVOC concentrations in summer exceeded the indoor guideline value (300 mug/m(3)) proposed by [Seifert B. Volatile organic compounds. In: Maroni M, Seifert B, Lindvall T, editors. Indoor air quality. A comprehensive reference book. Air quality monographs, vol. 3. Netherlands: Elsevier Science; 1995. p. 819-21]. The interior temperature and days lapsed after delivery were the main factors affecting the interior concentrations of most compounds according to multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study offer useful fundamental data for investigations on air pollution in automotive cabins due to the organic compounds diffusing from the interior materials.  相似文献   

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