The Northridge Earthquake: Community-based Approaches to Unmet Recovery Needs

The 1994 Northridge, California earthquake has proven to be one of the most costly disasters in United States history. Federal and state assistance programmes received some 681,000 applications from victims for various forms of relief. In spite of the flow of US$11 billion in federal assistance into Los Angeles and Ventura counties, many victims have failed to obtain adequate relief. These unmet needs relate to the vulnerability of particular class and ethnic groups. In response to unmet needs, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have become involved in the recovery process. This paper, based on evidence collected from hundreds of in-depth interviews with the people involved, examines the activities of several community-based organisations (CBOs) and other NGOs as they have attempted to assist vulnerable people with unmet post-disaster needs. We discuss two small ethnically diverse communities in Ventura County, on the periphery of the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The earthquake and resultant disaster declaration provided an opportunity for local government and NGOs to acquire federal resources not normally available for economic development. At the same time the earthquake created political openings in which longer-term issues of community development could be addressed by various local stakeholders. A key issue in recovery has been the availability of affordable housing for those on low incomes, particularly Latinos, the elderly and farm workers. We discuss the successes and limitations of CBOs and NGOs as mechanisms for dealing with vulnerable populations, unmet needs and recovery issues in the two communities.     

日美地震灾害紧急对应对中国灾害应急体制建立的启示

通过对美国1994年洛杉矶北岭地震反1995年日本阪神大地震时日美政府的地震灾害紧急应对过程,尤其是地震后的24小时内政府的初期对应,分析了日美地震灾害应急体制的特征,并就如何建立和完善中国灾害应急体系做了探讨。日美政府之所以在大地震发生时能有效地进行了紧急应对,在于健全的灾害应急体制。中国正处于经济和社会高度发展时期,面对各种各样的灾害和事故,要真正将灾害的损失降低到最低程度,必须尽快建立和健全以灾害应急规划体系、防灾情报系统、应急救灾指挥系统和专业化灾害援助队伍体系等为主的灾害应急管理体制。     

Injuries as a Result of California Earthquakes in the Past Decade

The devastating effects of earthquakes have been demonstrated repeatedly in the past decade, through moderate and major earthquakes such as the October 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake (5.9 on the Richter scale), the October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (7.1) and the January 1994 Northridge earthquake (6.7). While 'official' tallies of injuries and deaths are reported for each event, the numbers vary from report to report. For Northridge, the number of injuries vary between 8,000 and 12,000; the number of deaths from 33 to 73 (Peek-Asa et al., 1997; Durkin, 1996).While official estimates are commonly reported following disasters, the study of actual numbers, types and causes of casualties has not developed. In this paper, we identify the numbers and risk factors for injuries within community-based samples across three earthquakes in urban California. We first report the numbers and types of injuries in each earthquake and then identify risk factors specifically associated with the Northridge earthquake     

中国的地震灾害损失预测

估计某个地区未来将会遭到多大的地震灾害损失.对于减轻地震灾害是十分重要的科学问题.因力地震预防和救灾的基础是对未来地震灾害的定量估计.地震灾害主要由两方面因素决定.一方面是未来地震动强烈程度的估计(地震危险性分析).另一方面是各个地震动等级对社会、经济、人口等所造成的损害程度估计(地震易损性分析). 本文介绍了以上两方面研究工作的进展,以及国家地震局“未来地震灾害损失预测研究组”试编的中国未来50年地震灾害损失预测图及其应用.讨论了在灾害预测方面所遇到的科学问题.     

中国未来10～15年地震灾害的风险评估

中国是世界上地震灾害损失最严重的国家之一，全国５０％以上的城市和７０％左右的大中城市位于７度及以上烈度区内．地震的发生给中国社会带来了很大的危害和损失，主要的损失分布在以北京为中心的首都圈地区和云南－四川－陕西－内蒙古相连的南北带上，另外新疆的西北部也是地震损失较大的地区．所谓地震灾害风险是指建立在各地防震减灾能力基础上的未来地震损失估汁，风险的特征是具有一定的不确定性．从中国的实际情况来看，东部沿海地区、首都圈地区及内陆的个别地区防震减灾能力较强，而未来地震危险性则以中国西部地区和华北地区为主．通过对中国未来１０—１５年地震风险的研究，可以认为，中国的东部地区虽然有一定的地震危险性，但由于其经济发达，减灾能力很强，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险较小；中国的中部（南北带）和西部地区地震危险性很大，同时经济欠发达，减灾能力较差，因此未来地震造成巨大损失的风险很大．     

云南地区地震灾害损失的基本特征

云南是我国地震灾害损失最为严重的地区之一。地震灾害损失评估标准实施以来，云南地区积累了较丰富的地震灾害损失评估资料。以1992～2001年云南地区破坏性地震的灾害损失评估资料为基础，分析了地震灾害损失随时间的变化特征，初步探讨了地震震级与受灾人口、人员伤亡和地震灾害经济损失等方面的关系。结果表明：(1)随着社会经济的不断发展和社会财富的不断积累，等同地震能量所造成的经济损失呈逐渐增大的趋势；(2)在空间上，由于各灾区的经济发展状况不同，等同地震能量所造成的灾害损失存在着地区差异性；(3)地震灾害损失随震级增大而增大，但二者之间并非简单的线性关系，其中生命线工程及其它特殊工程结构、重大工程设施、大型企业等的经济损失随震级的增大而以更大的比例增大。     

Flood vulnerability and commercial activities: the case of the city of Girona, Spain

This paper is based on a case study of the city of Girona in Catalonia, Spain, and analyses the vulnerability of commercial establishments to floods caused by the Onyar River. A mapping and statistical approach (cluster analysis) was applied to the information obtained from 568 questionnaires answered by the shops and the workshops located in the flood risk area. The results obtained allowed the authors to determine five different flood vulnerability profiles of the commercial establishments analysed. These profiles paint a picture of little individual adaptation to the risk and the possibility of suffering, sooner or later, large economic losses due to overflowing of the Onyar River. The authors established a methodology for carrying out a detailed multidimensional analysis of the flood vulnerability of the city's commercial establishments in order to provide the foundations for local government policies and for strategies for shop owners to reduce flood vulnerability.     

Housing reconstruction after two major earthquakes: the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the United States and the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan

The idea of pre-impact recovery planning has recently been promoted by researchers and practitioners, but very little research has been done to evaluate its effects on disaster recovery. This study compared two jurisdictions — the city of Los Angeles, California and Taichung county in Taiwan — in their recovery from earthquakes. Although the two cases also differ with respect to variables other than the presence of pre-impact recovery plans, the available data suggest that having a pre-impact recovery plan facilitates housing reconstruction and allows local officials to make more effective use of the window of opportunity after disaster to integrate hazard mitigation into the recovery process.     

Disaster vulnerability of businesses in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of the February, 2001, Nisqually earthquake on businesses. Focusing on two hard-hit business districts in Seattle, the study investigates the extent of losses, patterns of disparities, and underlying loss factors. A conceptual framework is proposed of how business vulnerability dimensions contribute to disaster loss. Interviews were conducted with owners and managers of 107 businesses. Data were gathered on impacts, methods of finance, and disaster preparedness. Results showed that business losses were much greater than what standard statistical data would imply. Analysis found that a composite index of vulnerability—based on business sector, size, and building occupancy tenure—provides a very powerful predictor of business loss. Physical damage was a much weaker predictor of loss. Moreover, business recovery was influenced not only by characteristics of the business itself, but also by conditions in the neighborhood.     

Making building codes an effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation

Abstract

Investigators picking through the debris left by the Northridge earthquake in 1994 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 found building codes had not provided the degree of protection against damage that many expected. We provide evidence that the problems of code enforcement in the United States that were uncovered for these events are not unique. We show the seismic provisions of codes receive low priority for enforcement by many local building departments, even in areas of moderate to high seismic hazard. Drawing lessons from experience in the United States with programs to foster greater energy efficiency in buildings, we discuss how the federal government and states can make building codes a more effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation. Although the lessons we draw are specific to the United States, the broader implications of this research concern the role of higher-level governments in motivating local governments to address risks posed by natural hazards.     

Mapping fires and American Red Cross aid using demographic indicators of vulnerability

Social vulnerability indicators can assist with informing disaster relief preparation. Certain demographic segments of a population may suffer disproportionately during disaster events, and a geographical understanding of them can help to determine where to place strategically logistical assets and to target disaster‐awareness outreach endeavours. Records of house fire events and American Red Cross aid provision over a five‐year period were mapped for the County of Los Angeles, California, United States, to examine the congruence between actual events and expectations of risk based on vulnerability theory. The geographical context provided by the data was compared with spatially‐explicit indicators of vulnerability, such as age, race, and wealth. Fire events were found to occur more frequently in more vulnerable areas, and Red Cross aid was found to have an even stronger relationship to those places. The findings suggest that these indicators speak beyond vulnerability and relate to patterns of fire risk.     

地震预警系统应用的社会影响调查与分析

地震预警系统建设是降低地震灾害的一个重要途径,可以有效地减少人员伤亡和财产损失,但地震预警系统目前还处于发展阶段,应用中存在一定风险。设计了若干个关于地震预警系统应用的社会调查问卷,以通过调查结果定性地评估地震预警系统产生的社会影响,统计公众对预警系统的认识和需求,分析预警信息发布对公众的影响和公众对地震漏报、误报等风险的接受程度,以及地震预警系统相关的法律问题。调查结果显示,我国公众对地震预警系统的期望程度及有效性评价均很高,但也存在着一些问题,如对地震预警相关知识了解较少,对紧急事件应变能力较差,对预警盲区和漏报等风险接受程度较低等。最后,结合国外地震预警系统的研究成果和应用现状,提出了相关建议及应对措施,希望能对我国预警系统的建设提供参考作用。     

按带头地震和倍九法对1995年日本阪神大震的预报进行回顾性讨论

1995年日本阪神7．2级大震损失惨重。震后日本官方改变了以预报为基础的防震减灾计划．这一改变对全世界地震预报的信心起了很大的削弱作用．本文以阪神大震极震区震前9d的氡气突跳异常以及1946年12月21日南海8．1级地震（距阪神约150km）为依据,按我们早期提出的倍九律和带头地震来讨论阪神大震的预报．我们的结论是临震预报不要放弃,应继续前进。     

应对闽南4市地震损失的金融手段

随着我国经济和社会的快速发展,人口和财富的密度越来越高,地震造成的损失也越来越严重。应用金融手段可以使地震风险与资本市场充分融合,缓解其给个人和社会造成的冲击。依据闽南地区4个重要城市的震害预测成果,讨论了如何应用地震保险和巨灾债券等金融手段减轻泉州海外未来大地震可能造成的损失。     

Understanding the causes of vulnerabilities for enhancing social-physical resilience: lessons from the Wenchuan earthquake

ABSTRACT

In an effort to understand the social-physical vulnerabilities from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, this research established and validated a conceptual model for natural disaster analysis. The earthquake severely impacted the built environment, with many buildings being destroyed in the earthquake and from secondary impacts. This vulnerable environment exacerbated the poverty in the local residents because of the lack of flat land and the inaccessibility of the mountainous areas. Therefore, there was an interactive relationship between the built environment vulnerability and the social vulnerability. Due to general poverty and low education levels, social vulnerability in rural areas is often the result of poor quality building construction; in the event of an earthquake, therefore, most economic losses and casualties are the result of building destruction. To enhance social-physical resilience, measures should be adopted to mitigate the vulnerability of the built environment and society through actions such as land use planning, the use of seismic-resistant technologies, and investment in infrastructure, education, industrial development, and environmental protection. This research extracts the reasons for the vulnerabilities through an examination of the interactions between the natural environment, the built environment, and the local society. The insights gained have significant theoretical and practical implications in assisting vulnerable communities resist and adapt to natural hazards to achieve sustainable development.     

地震灾害经济损失估算与预测方法

本文通过对地震造成的社会环境物理破坏损失以及这种物理破坏导致的经济领域损失的分析，研究了直接经济损失预测方法，给出了地震人员死亡率和直接经济损失率的相关统计关系；并根据两种不同的经济分析模型，提出了地震灾害间接经济损失预测方法：经济计量模式和投入产出方法。     

Environmental equity in a sunbelt city: the spatial distribution of toxic hazards in Phoenix,Arizona

Abstract

This paper examines the spatial distributions of industrial facilities emitting toxic substances in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan region. The analysis relies on geographic information system mapping of hazardous facilities listed in the Environmental Protection Agency's Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) to assess the spatial distribution of polluting industries in relation to the demographic composition of host neighborhoods. The research addresses four questions: (1) Are there differences between the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods with and without polluting industrial facilities? (2) Is there a relationship between the volume of toxic chemicals released from industrial facilities and the socioeconomic characteristics of host neighborhoods? (3) Is there a relationship between the toxicity of the chemicals released from industrial facilities and the socioeconomic characteristics of those living in proximity? (4) Do alternative methods for determining the distribution of potentially affected populations produce different observed patterns of environmental inequities? The study concludes that there is a clear pattern of environmental inequity in Phoenix based on the location and volume of emissions of TRI facilities. Analysis of the toxicity of emissions found a more equal distribution of risk, reflecting the suburbanization of high-technology industries into predominantly white middle-class communities.     

中国的地震灾情及其区域分异

以1949年以来的中国大陆地震及地震灾情数据为主要资料,在地震活动规律的基础上,全面分析了中国地震灾情的特点,总结得出了中国大陆地震灾情东强西弱的空间分布规律,以及人员伤亡减少、经济损失增大的时间分布规律。由此,运用区域灾害系统的理论与方法,分析了;中国地震灾害的形成机制。     

地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型

本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。