Model Modification and Application on Carrying Capacity of Relative Resources

Abstract

Based on the retrospection of researches on carrying capacity, this article reviewed systematically the research progresses on carrying capacity of relative resources (CCRR). Then the viewpoint was put forward that CCRR is not an appropriate method of appraising the regional sustainability, but a sound way to obtain cognition for coordinating spatial location and flow of population and economy. However, as the most popular computing method of CCRR, the Weighting Linear Sum Model is defective in the random of weight choice and the neglect of matching among different resources. Therefore, this article established the Geometric Model on CCRR based on modifying Weighting Linear Sum Model, which can be used to appraise regions where resources are close matching. Employing the Geometric Model, the article empirically analyzed the population and economic CCRR in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2006. The result indicates that the population in Hubei Province is overloading while the economic carrying capacity is abundant compared to the whole country, and the economic insufficiency restricts the population carrying capacity. In the future, Hubei Province will become one of the core developing zones which are characterized by economic conglomeration.     

Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century

In the context of climatic temperature studies, more often than not a time series is affected by artificial inhomogeneities. To overcome such limitation, we propose a new simple methodology in which promising results point not only toward the detection of unknown inhomogeneous periods but also toward the possibility of reconstructing the uncertain portion of the series. It is based on a parsimonious statistical downscaling (Multiple Linear Regression) of the large-scale 20CR reanalysis data. This method is successfully applied upon two long-range temperature series from a couple of centennial observatories (Ebre and Fabra, NE of Spain) which do not have nearby suitable temperature series to compare with. Results of trend analysis point to a clear signal of warming, with a larger rate of increase for the maximum temperature (respect to the minimum one), for the more recent decades (respect to the whole available period), and for the original series (respect to the reconstructed ones).     

Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale

Understanding the impacts of climate change on viticulture is especially essential in those areas producing high-quality wines. In this work, we create an operational framework to investigate climate change impact on viticulture in the Tuscany region (central Italy) the viticulture industry of which relies on producing high-quality wines to compete in a global market. The framework includes (i) statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for the period 1975–2099 to a local scale; (ii) the use of downscaling outputs as driving variables in specific simulation models; (iii) the spatial interpolation of model outputs to feed an economic and (iv) a quality model. The results show that as a consequence of a progressive increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, (a) the area potentially suitable for grapevine cultivation increases; (b) the grapevine growth cycle becomes shorter; (c) the final yield is gradually reduced, particularly in those areas characterised by quality cultivation regulation; and d) the premium wine quality production areas shift towards higher elevations. The proposed framework revealed itself to be an effective tool for climate change impact assessment at a very local scale. Additionally, this approach may be easily extended to testing the effect of different adaptation strategies in terms of management practices (e.g. irrigation) and grape varieties (e.g. longer or shorter cycle, advanced or delayed bud burst).     

Model Modification and Application on Carrying Capacity of Relative Resources

Based on the retrospection of researches on carrying capacity, this article reviewed systematically the research progresses on carrying capacity of relative resources （CCRR）. Then the viewpoint was put forward that CCRR is not an appropriate method of appraising the regional sustainability, but a sound way to obtain cognition for coordinating spatial location and flow of population and economy. However, as the most popular computing method of CCRR, the Weighting Linear Sum Model is defective in the random of weight choice and the neglect of matching among different resources. Therefore, this article established the Geometric Model on CCRR based on modifying Weighting Linear Sum Model, which can be used to appraise regions where resources are close matching. Employing the Geometric Model, the article empirically analyzed the population and economic CCRR in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2006. The result indicates that the population in Hubei Province is overloading while the economic carrying capacity is abundant compared to the whole country, and the economic insufficiency restricts the population carrying capacity. In the future, Hubei Province will become one of the core developing zones which are characterized by economic conglomeration.     

Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor–predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.     

基于G1赋权模型的生态城市发展管理评价

以生态城市的发展管理评价作为研究对象,界定了发展管理评价的内涵,认为其具有相互作用和对称破缺等非线性特征,适宜于采用G1赋权模型,以崇明生态岛为例做出了应用研究,初步实现了生态城市发展管理的非线性评价。结果显示,崇明生态岛建设的管理能力指数达到67.81,管理机制指数只有52.39,公众参与指数是59.91,综合管理指数是59.65,表明可持续发展管理水平接近于良好可持续性。鉴于"投资力度超强,管理深度不够"的失衡特征,亟待管理改进。为此,给出主要建议如下:明确综合管理定位,大力推进管理机制的创新和完善,强化社会参与机制;明确行动方略,改变投资扩张型的建设体制模式和运作机制;明确政策重点,推进属地管理和流域管理、强化空间集约管理、统筹城乡数字化网络化发展。应用研究显示,G1赋权模型是生态城市发展管理工作实现非线性评价的有效途径之一,可以接近其非线性判断需求,科学揭示管理诸要素的属性特征和相互关系,有助于合理反映当地管理水平并提出有针对性的改进建议。     

Putting consumers first in design for sustainable behaviour: a case study of reducing environmental impacts of cold appliance use

To slow down the increasing environmental degradation, design for sustainable behaviour (DfSB) has emerged in sustainable design aiming to promote behavioural change through design innovations to reduce environmental and social impacts from the demand side or consumer side. This paper presents a practice-based journey to investigate the process and results of the application of social-psychological theories into sustainable design. Focusing on the behaviour-related impacts of products and services during the use stage, a Design Behaviour Intervention Model (DBIM) is developed through the analysis and synthesis of the social-psychological theories and behaviour-changing strategies. The DBIM indicates that an in-depth study of consumer behaviour is the preliminary step in DfSB, which determines the application of design strategies and potentially the effectiveness of design interventions. A case study is presented to demonstrate the application of the model. The results show that consumer behaviour insights offer rich resources to assist designers in sustainable design innovation. Product-based design suggestions and a proposed solution highlight that the application of DBIM coupled with consumer involvement throughout the design process could produce desirable and sustainable patterns of household fridge use. Finally, the structured consideration of behavioural change and their possible application in DfSB are discussed.     

Forecasting the consequences of accidental releases of radionuclides in the atmosphere from ensemble dispersion modelling.

The RTMOD system is presented as a tool for the intercomparison of long-range dispersion models as well as a system for support of decision making. RTMOD is an internet-based procedure that collects the results of more than 20 models used around the world to predict the transport and deposition of radioactive releases in the atmosphere. It allows the real-time acquisition of model results and their intercomparison. Taking advantage of the availability of several model results, the system can also be used as a tool to support decision making in case of emergency. The new concept of ensemble dispersion modelling is introduced which is the basis for the decision-making application of RTMOD. New statistical parameters are presented that allow gathering the results of several models to produce a single dispersion forecast. The devised parameters are presented and tested on the results of RTMOD exercises.     

环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。     

Comparing different environmental variables in predictive models of bird distribution

The response variable (often the presence of a species) in predictive habitat models relies on a set of environmental predictors. Among all known environmental predictors, vegetation has the most effect on species abundance and on their habitat preferences, due to the wide range of necessary resources that it provides for the survival of bird species. However, other predictors, in turn, affect bird distribution, and some-times they play a more important role in habitat selection, depending on the natural history and ecological needs of the bird species. In this regard, different analyses have been conducted to predict the distribution, and define habitat suitability (such as discriminant function analysis, General Linear Models, and ANOVA). In this study, all three analytical designs were used to investigate the relationship of seven bird species to the major environmental gradients in the study area, to find out the significance of each of these factors on habitat selection. GIS has been used to prepare spatial distributional data, and to overlay and calculate different aspects of the environmental factors. The results suggest that potential individual habitat patches play a small role compared to the landscape (entire corresponding habitat patches), when considering vegetation. The influence of built-up areas is significant for all the species, and the proximity to the sea shore is very significant for at least one of the species, however, it is not neutral for all other species.     

Life cycle assessments of municipal solid waste management systems: A comparative analysis of selected peer-reviewed literature

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a popular tool used to evaluate the environmental performance of municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems. Although reviews of LCAs of MSW have been undertaken to assess the validity of the ‘waste hierarchy,’ a recent review of the goal, scope and results of LCAs of mixed-material MSW management systems has yet to be performed. This paper is a comparative analysis of 20 process-based LCAs of MSW published between 2002 and 2008 in a total of 11 English-language peer-reviewed journals. It quantifies the methodological transparency of the studies and the frequency of use of particular system boundaries, types of data sources, environmental impact categories, impact weightings, economic valuations, sensitivity analyses, and LCA computer models. Net energy use (NEU), global warming potential (GWP), and acidification potential (AP) values for various types of MSW management systems are also compared using statistical indicators.The reviewed LCAs differ substantially in their system boundaries. Half or more of the LCAs either do not mention or are unclear in whether or not life cycle emissions from energy inputs or capital equipment are included in the calculation of results. Only four impact categories are common to more than half of the reviewed LCAs. The human and ecological toxicity impact categories are much less common than global warming potential, acidification, and eutrophication.A financial life cycle costing is present in eight of the reviewed LCAs, while an economic valuation of the environmental impacts is observed in five. Explicit sensitivity analyses are present in 4/20 of the studies, although many more LCAs evaluate the effects of varying model parameters by increasing the number of waste management scenarios. There is no consensus on whether or not to use the marginal or average source of electricity in calculating environmental impacts. Eight out of the 20 do not mention this source while the remaining LCAs are evenly split between the marginal and average electricity source. One quarter of the reviewed LCAs supply weighted results for the overall environmental performance of MSW management scenarios. All but one of these concurred with the ‘hierarchy of waste’ that the environmental performance of landfilling is lower than that of all the other treatment methods, and that thermal treatments are inferior to recycling.The comparative analyses of the NEU, GWP and AP results are based on 37, 45, and 42 MSW management scenarios, respectively. As measures of statistical dispersion, the interquartile ranges of the NEU, GWP and AP values are lowest for the landfilling (AP, NEU) and thermal treatment (GWP) scenarios. The results of the statistical analysis of the NEU, AP and GWP values appear to indicate that thermal treatment scenarios have a better environmental performance than landfilling, while the results for mixed treatment scenarios are less obvious. A comparison of the relative environmental performances of MSW treatment scenario types within each study did not provide a clear confirmation or repudiation of the waste hierarchy.This paper concludes that many recently published LCAs do not ensure that the methodological assumptions are made clear to the reader. Lack of transparency makes the results difficult to interpret, and hampers meaningful comparisons between the LCA results. A convergence in the adoption of particular assumptions that are more representative of MSW management systems would facilitate the comparison of the results.     

Modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) including a plutonium scavenging model as well as an advection-diffusion model has been developed for modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean. Calculated 239, 240Pu water profile concentrations and 239, 240Pu inventories in water and sediment of the Pacific Ocean have showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. The presence of local fallout plutonium in central North Pacific waters has been confirmed. The observed 240Pu/239Pu mass ratios confirm that plutonium originating from local fallout from nuclear weapons tests carried out at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls is more rapidly removed from surface waters to deeper waters than plutonium originating from global fallout. The developed OGCM can be used for modelling the dispersion of other non-conservative tracers in the ocean as well.     

南京市“两规”编制成果协调评价

土地利用总体规划和城市总体规划（以下简称“两规”）编制成果是指导城市土地利用和管理的重要依据,两者的协调对于“两规”的协调编制和实施具有重要意义。通过分析“两规”的内在联系,基于“两规”编制成果,从经济、社会、资源和环境4个方面构建了“两规”编制成果的协调状况综合评价体系,先计算了“两规”规划目标年和基期年的指标计算增长率,再采用协调度模型计算各个指标增长率的协调值,运用层次分析法确定各个因子的权重,最后采用指标加权求和法进行综合计算;并进一步通过ArcGIS软件空间叠加分析确定“两规”空间布局的差异。以南京市为例,计算了该市“两规”编制成果协调程度分值和土地利用空间布局差异。评价结果表明：南京市“两规”编制成果协调分值为9158,协调类型为中级协调;指标准则层中经济与资源相关因子的协调程度较好,但社会与环境相关因子协调程度有待提高,其主要原因是“两规”土地利用数据率与规划率及基期年存在差异;因此南京市“两规”编制成果在实施和修编中应进一步加强基础数据库与规划年限的统一     

The Spatial Dimension of Landscape Sustainability

Sustainability indicators are mostly derived from parameters which are, in the spatial dimension, more or less distribution-free. In the majority of cases, the indicators are based on statistical data on production, consumption, pollutants emission, land use, etc. This statistical approach is liable to mask sustainability risks which are primarily caused by specific spatial and temporal patterns of landscape and land use structure, such as degradation of soil functions, disturbances in the landscape's water balance, and losses in functional habitat quality.Sustainability risks due to ecologically non-adapted spatial landuse patterns require measures on regional to local scales, based on disaggregated, spatially explicit indicators. Depending on the respective planning and decision level, different levels of spatial aggregation/disaggregation have to be considered.In the concept presented here, a differentiated approach is proposed. For an aggregated assessment of landscape sustainability, long term monitoring of the dynamics of water flow and matter load at the outlet point of river catchments is recommended. A prerequisite for analyzing those measurements in terms of the catchments' land cover and land use pattern, as well as changes thereof, is a Geographic Information System (GIS) holding relevant up-to-date geodata sets. For a spatially more detailed indication of sustainability risks, an approach of GIS-based functional landscape assessment was demonstrated in a regional case study.The results show GIS on regional to local scales together with satellite remote sensing data on land cover and landuse to be a powerful data basis for spatially explicit landscape evaluation, provided that suitable models for assessing specific landscape functions are applied.     

改进的最优组合人口预测模型及其应用

人口预测是编制土地利用总体规划的基础性研究工作,区域人口发展规模和数量是土地利用总体规划中确定各类用地控制指标和调整土地利用结构的重要依据。因此,科学准确地预测人口发展,是制定区域土地利用总体规划的基础。在分析各种人口预测模型的基础上,提出了一种改进的最优组合模型。并以湖南省张家界市永定区人口预测为例,利用改进的最优组合模型进行了人口模型预测,并与现有的线性回归模型、灰色系统GM(1,1)模型、logistic 模型、最优组合模型的预测结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,提出的改进的最优组合模型预测结果准确可靠,有利于土地管理的科学决策,是适宜于区域土地利用规划中总人口预测的一种较好的方法。     

Measuring future dynamics of genuine saving with changes of population and technology: application of an integrated assessment model

Theoretical and empirical studies have been conducted on the genuine saving (GS) based on neoclassical economic theory to assess sustainable development (SD). However, only market prices and statistical national accounts have been used in empirical studies due to limited data availability. The data availability limits to measure GS only in the past and current, causing a wide gap with theoretical results. In this paper, we propose computing GS using an integrated assessment model (IAM) as connected to the mainframe model of macroeconomy. This enables us to use shadow prices, rather than market prices, obtained through an IAM, which ensures substantial consistency among variables. An example would be endogenous capital–output ratio and the rate of TFP. Also, our indicator of GS is more comprehensive in that they now account for various resources, environmental degradation, and land use. Our simulation results, with a particular focus on GS with population change (GSn) and with technological change as well (GSnt), show a sustainable future for up to the end of the century thanks to declining population in the latter half of the century and technological progress, although GS without accounting for population and technology tend to be negative, driven by, among others, capital depreciation and net primary productivity degraded by land use.     

Cross-sectional mortality studies and air pollution risk assessment

The use of coefficients, derived from cross-sectional mortality studies, for air pollution risk assessment is quite controversial. In this study, the major limitations of cross-sectional studies are reviewed. The consistency of results from the major recent cross-sectional studies is examined, and the sensitivity of results to model specification is analyzed. Finally, the implications for risk assessment of our inquiries are discussed.     

Investigating the current status of geospatial data and urban growth indicators in Jordan and Irbid municipality: implications for urban and environmental planning

The increasing levels of urbanization with intensive use of resources became a common problem across all countries. Jordan is a country with limited resources that require periodic assessment and frequent monitoring. The geospatial data, maps and urban growth indicators are fundamental requirements to monitor and evaluate cities expansion, development and resources use. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the availability and accessibility of geospatial data needed for city’s urban planning research and calculate recent urban growth indicators for Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM). All National governmental institutions were visited and surveyed. Landsat-8 images, geographic information system, classification workflow in ENVI-5 and statistical methods were used to assess selected urban growth indicators for GIM. The results showed that only one-fourth of Jordan national authorities use spatial data for urban planning. Researchers are expected to face complexities in identifying the available national geospatial data, accessing and acquisition of the available data with sufficient accuracy and comprehensiveness. The GIM showed lack of certain geospatial data (land use categories, population and built-up densities). These data were calculated, and results showed that the green, urban, open space densities for the year 2015 were 49, 25 and 26%, respectively. The population and built-up densities relative to the urban area was 7879 capita/km² and 20%, respectively. Therefore, the GIM is a dense city and its land use categories need to be monitored. Funds are needed to develop complete, comprehensive and accurate national geodata infrastructure that are governed with policies and regulations to facilitate researchers’ mission to support sustainability.     

南京市秦淮区昼夜人口空间分布估算与分析

人口时空分布研究对于城市规划管理、土地利用布局优化以及生态资源环境评价具有重要的现实意义。以南京市秦淮区为研究区,选择Google Earth平台提供的2014年空间分辨率为0.27 m的高分辨率遥感影像,结合统计资料和实地调查,根据人们日常活动的时空位移规律,获取“人口-昼夜-土地利用”匹配关系,借助地理信息系统建模和空间分析技术,实现100 m格网单元尺度下的昼夜人口空间分布定量模拟,并从街道和建筑斑块尺度对人口空间化结果进行验证,进而分析昼夜人口空间分布格局。结果表明：(1）利用高分辨率遥感影像目视解译和街景地图等多源数据,可有效克服城市复杂下垫面的土地利用类型和建筑物图斑数据较难获取的困难,提高城市人口估算的空间分辨率;(2）利用土地利用类型和建筑物空间属性信息,能够合理地估算建筑物尺度上的昼夜人口空间分布;（3)由于中心城区建筑物功能布局以及城乡发展差异等诸多因素影响,城市中心城区昼夜人口的空间结构存在显著差异,白天人口分布范围较为广泛且部分区域具有显著的集聚特征,而夜晚人口的高值分布则相对分散,高值集聚区向城区周边推移。 关键词： 昼夜人口;时空分布;遥感;地理信息分析;南京市;秦淮区