基于DCCA方法的成都市市区与周边城镇大气污染长程相关性分析

利用2008年1月～2012年12月期间成都市市区与其周边14个城镇的逐日空气污染指数（API）数据,采用去趋势互相关分析法（DCCA分析）研究区域城市间大气污染的相关性及其随时间演变规律。结果表明:成都市区与其周边城镇大气污染的空气污染存在一定程度的相关性,并且在不同的月份,相关性会随之发生变化。这种相关性具有长期持续特征,具体表现为在一定的时间尺度上成都市区与其周边城镇大气污染的相关性随时间的变化并不遵循经典的马尔可夫过程,即不随时间呈现指数快速衰减,而是以幂律形式随时间缓慢衰减。进一步,结合不同月份间区域大气平均流场的分布特征,探讨了DCCA分析结果的科学性。研究结果说明,在特定地理环境和气象条件控制下,成都市及其周边城市之间已经存在明显的相互输送和耦合作用,成都地区大气污染已由局地性污染转变为区域性大气污染。城市间污染物输送的长期相关影响机制极有可能在特定月份加重成都市区的空气污染状况,这在成都市区及其周边城镇的规划建设中必须加以特别重视     

技术异质下中国大气污染排放效率的区域差异与影响因素

近年来中国雾霾天气的频繁发生给人们的生产、生活以及身体健康构成巨大威胁。提高大气污染排放效率,深入挖掘大气污染减排潜力是改善中国大气环境质量,减少和消除雾霾天气发生的重要途径。本文根据生态效率理论,充分考虑到不同区域发展的不平衡因素与技术异质性特征,在共同前沿方法框架下科学测算2006—2014年间中国30个省份的大气污染排放效率,在此基础上分析效率的区域差异,利用"技术差距比(TGR)"这一指标衡量东部、中部与西部三大区域之间大气污染排放技术的差距,并从"技术"与"管理"两个维度进一步将各省份大气污染排放无效率分解为"技术差距无效率(TGI)"与"管理无效率(GMI)",以此定位各省份大气污染防治的薄弱环节,进而构建策略矩阵,将全国各省份归入四个不同排放效率特征的方阵,并给出相应的优化路径与措施;深入揭示大气污染排放效率与排放强度之间的内在联系,提出"大气污染排放强度效率"这一全新概念并考察其演化趋势;利用面板Tobit回归模型检验影响我国省际大气污染排放效率与排放技术的外部环境因素。实证结果表明:1中国大气污染排放效率整体水平偏低,年均仅为0.493,污染减排潜力巨大;2中国大气污染排放效率与排放技术的地区差异显著,无论是大气污染排放效率还是排放技术水平,东部地区都是明显高于中部与西部地区;3中国大气污染的实际排放强度明显高于潜在排放强度,这表明大气污染排放强度还存在很大的改进空间;4经济发展、产业结构升级与科技创新对大气污染排放效率与排放技术的提升均有显著促进作用,煤炭消费比重上升与人口密度过大则对其有显著抑制作用;5本文的研究结论支持"波特假说"与"污染避难所"假说。     

A new conceptual model for quantifying transboundary contribution of atmospheric pollutants in the East Asian Pacific rim region

Transboundary transport of air pollution is a serious environmental concern as pollutant affects both human health and the environment. Many numerical approaches have been utilized to quantify the amounts of pollutants transported to receptor regions, based on emission inventories from possible source regions. However, sparse temporal–spatial observational data and uncertainty in emission inventories might make the transboundary transport contribution difficult to estimate. This study presents a conceptual quantitative approach that uses transport pathway classification in combination with curve fitting models to simulate an air pollutant concentration baseline for pollution background concentrations. This approach is used to investigate the transboundary transport contribution of atmospheric pollutants to a metropolitan area in the East Asian Pacific rim region. Trajectory analysis categorized pollution sources for the study area into three regions: East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan cities. The occurrence frequency and transboundary contribution results suggest the predominant source region is the East Asian continent. This study also presents an application to evaluate heavy pollution cases for health concerns. This new baseline construction model provides a useful tool for the study of the contribution of transboundary pollution delivered to receptors, especially for areas deficient in emission inventories and regulatory monitoring data for harmful air pollutants.     

Reduced exposure to air pollution on the boardwalk in Dublin, Ireland. Measurement and prediction

This paper outlines an air pollution study carried out on Dublin city's recently completed boardwalk along the side of and overhanging the River Liffey. Air quality samples were taken along the length of the boardwalk to investigate whether pedestrians using the boardwalk would have a lower air pollution exposure than those using the adjoining footpath along the road. The results of the study show significant reductions in pedestrian exposure to both traffic derived particulates and hydrocarbons along the boardwalk as opposed to the footpath. Computational fluid dynamics was also used to model the outcome of these field measurements and shows the importance of the boundary wall between the footpath and boardwalk in reducing air pollution exposure for the pedestrian, the results of which are also presented herein.     

长沙市两种空气质量预报方法检验对比

为探索新的空气质量预报方法，提高预报准确率，采用统计和对比方法，分析了长沙市空气质量现状，介绍了天气形势相似及动态逐步回归两种空气质量统计预报方法，并对其一年多的运行结果进行了检验和对比。结果表明，长沙市空气污染主要由PM\-\{10\}和SO\-2浓度超标引起, 且具有明显的空间分布特征;5年来长沙城市空气质量明显好转;两种预报方法对各污染物都有一定的预报能力，预报的误差绝对值多集中在30以内，而级别误差基本上在1级以内。两种方法对NO\-2的预报准确率均在98%左右,预报效果优良。绝对误差对比发现，两种预报方法对SO\-2的预报明显优于PM\-\{10\}预报；级别准确率对比时，两种预报方法对3种污染物的预报准确率相近。两种预报方法对3个污染因子的预报准确率呈现出NO\-2优于SO\-2优于PM\-\{10\}的趋势。     

中美大气污染的空间交互影响--来自国家和城市层面PM2.5的经验证据

准确识别中美大气污染的空间交互影响可以为两国在大气污染治理领域开展双边合作提供科学依据。以PM 2.5浓度表征大气污染程度,采用收敛交叉映射(Convergent Cross Mapping,CCM)方法,在采集伯克利地球发布的小时数据的基础上通过算数平均得到2018年1月1日至2018年12月31日的PM 2.5浓度日均数据,从国家和城市两个层面识别了中美大气污染的空间交互影响。研究发现,中美两国的大气污染是空间交互影响的。其中,国家层面,在CCM因果检验基础上的广义同步检验表明,在1%显著性水平上,大气污染仅存在由美国指向中国的单向因果关系。城市层面,中美两国10个样本城市之间理论上共存在50个可能的因果关系(5×5×2)。研究发现,在1%显著性水平上,美国城市指向中国城市的因果关系有12个,而中国城市指向美国城市的因果关系仅有5个。在影响强度上,美国城市的大气污染对中国城市的影响强度高于中国城市的大气污染对美国城市的影响强度,如重庆的大气污染对华盛顿的影响强度为0.21,而华盛顿的大气污染对重庆的影响强度为0.35。面对大气污染的空间交互影响,中美两国可通过积极开展联合科研攻关,厘清大气污染的传输路径及其驱动因素,进行污染物的联合监测与数据管理;通过共享大气污染治理技术和建立大气污染防治基金等方式,加强在大气污染治理领域的合作。一旦中美两国成功建立起大气污染双边合作治理体系,依靠两国的国际地位和国际影响力,必将吸引越来越多的国家参与进来共同行动,大气污染全球治理体系的构建将非常值得期待。     

经济集聚对雾霾污染影响的空间计量研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

雾霾污染是困扰中国经济发展的重大民生与环境问题。基于改进产出密度模型,运用地统计和空间计量模型分析长三角城市2015~2017年雾霾污染空间格局和影响因素。研究发现：（1）雾霾污染存在季节性变化特征并且各城市雾霾污染状况逐渐好转。（2）雾霾污染具有显著的局域集聚特征和空间异质性,杭州、宁波和台州呈现低－低集聚特征,而滁州、扬州、镇江和泰州为高－高集聚型,污染区域集中于省界处,污染程度自西北向东南逐渐降低。雾霾污染存在显著的城际空间正相关和空间溢出效应,周边城市雾霾污染对本地区会产生负影响。（3）长三角城市人口集聚、研发投入、产业结构、工业烟粉尘排放及城市建设均对雾霾污染产生正向影响,对外开放、能源消耗以及降水等因素对雾霾污染产生负向影响;雾霾污染与经济增长之间不存在库兹涅茨曲线关系。经济集聚通过优化生产要素的空间分布与组合、共享治污基础设施等,形成雾霾污染抑制作用。     

Future climate and adverse health effects caused by fine particulate matter air pollution: case study for Poland

Ground level air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), has been associated with a number of adverse health effects. The dispersion of PM_2.5 through the atmosphere depends on several mutually connected anthropogenic, geophysical and meteorological parameters, all of which are affected by climate change. This study examines how projected climate change would affect population exposure to PM_2.5 air pollution in Poland. Population exposure to PM_2.5 in Poland was estimated for three decades: the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s. Future climate conditions were projected by Regional Climate Model RegCM (Beta), forced by the general atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The dispersion of PM_2.5 was simulated with chemical transport model CAMx version 4.40. Population exposure estimates of PM_2.5 were 18.3, 17.2 and 17.1 μg/m³ for the 1990s, 2040s and 2090s, respectively. PM_2.5 air pollution was estimated to cause approximately 39,800 premature deaths in the population of Poland in the year 2000. Our results indicate that in Poland, climate change may reduce the levels of exposure to anthropogenic particulate air pollution in future decades and that this reduction will reduce adverse health effects caused by the air pollution.     

The rise of low-cost sensing for managing air pollution in cities

Ever growing populations in cities are associated with a major increase in road vehicles and air pollution. The overall high levels of urban air pollution have been shown to be of a significant risk to city dwellers. However, the impacts of very high but temporally and spatially restricted pollution, and thus exposure, are still poorly understood. Conventional approaches to air quality monitoring are based on networks of static and sparse measurement stations. However, these are prohibitively expensive to capture tempo-spatial heterogeneity and identify pollution hotspots, which is required for the development of robust real-time strategies for exposure control. Current progress in developing low-cost micro-scale sensing technology is radically changing the conventional approach to allow real-time information in a capillary form. But the question remains whether there is value in the less accurate data they generate. This article illustrates the drivers behind current rises in the use of low-cost sensors for air pollution management in cities, while addressing the major challenges for their effective implementation.     

基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估

科学地评估空气质量的经济价值是政府制定空气污染治理政策的必要前提。近年来选择实验方法逐渐兴起,并被研究者广泛应用于环境价值评估。与其他陈述偏好方法相比,选择实验的一个优势是其具有更高的外部效度。选择实验方法在国内的应用研究尚处在起步阶段。本研究分别在2015年和2016年对北京市居民开展了两次基于选择实验方法的网络调查,在调查数据的基础上采用随机参数Logit和广义多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民对空气质量的偏好,并据此估算了空气质量价值。根据2015年样本的估算结果,雾霾天气(PM_(2.5)超标)和沙尘天气(PM_(10)超标)对北京市居民的平均边际价值分别为6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根据2016年样本的估算结果,两个价值分别为7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算结果在两次调查样本中基本稳定,而且,在多种模型设定下都具有较强的稳健性,与近年来的同类研究结果基本一致。以2016年样本的估算结果为基础,2015年北京市雾霾天气和沙尘天气引起的价值损失分别为239.61亿元和45.13亿元,占北京市当年GDP总量的1.04%和0.20%。进一步研究发现,北京市2015年和2016年空气质量改善的价值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空气污染投入的财政资金总量,说明资金使用效率有待进一步提高;此外,虽然空气质量对高收入居民具有更高的价值,但是,以收入水平为指标设计的累进税率并不比固定税率更优。     

The evaluation of the air quality impact of an incinerator by using MM5-CMAQ-EMIMO modeling system: North of Spain case study

The use of sophisticated air pollution modeling systems to evaluate the impact of different industrial plant emissions is currently done in an extensive way. MM5-CMAQ (PSU/NCAR and EPA, USA) is one of the most applicable air quality modeling systems to evaluate those impacts. In this contribution we present the methodology and results obtained when applying the MM5-CMAQ air quality modeling system for evaluating the potential impact of an incinerator in San Sebastián (Basque Country, Spain). We have used the EMIMO (UPM, Spain) emission model to simulate the emissions from biogenic and anthropogenic sources including traffic and tertiary sector sources. The study includes the air quality impact of a highway located near the incinerator named A8 and 6 industrial plants which already exist. The impact study has been compared with the results obtained from this highway impact and the 6 industrial plants which are normally operating during the last 30 years. The system has been prepared to simulate also Cadmium, Arsenic, Nickel, Lead and Benzo(a)pyrene air quality impacts. The PCDD/F air concentrations have been determined for the 16 toxic dioxins and furans as determined in the bibliography. The criteria pollutants such as CO, NOx, SO(2), PM(10) and O(3) have also been determined according to the different EU Directives which limit the values of such a pollutants for different periods of time.     

The design considerations for ozone and acid aerosol exposure and health investigations: The fairview lake summer camp — Photochemical smog case study

The health effects associated with ozone and acidic particulate sulfate exposures to active children have been and are being addressed in field epidemiological studies at summar camps in rural areas of the Northeastern U.S. The rationale and study design for studies, which have been conducted in Pennsylvania and New Jersey, are developed and reviewed. As background, results are summarized for human clinical and epidemiological studies and animal studies. These provided the basis for selection of health outcomes measured results from chemical characterization and transport studies are reviewed to define the criteria used for selection of a site which is effected by high ozone and acid species during photochemical smog episodes. The integration of the study design is discussed in detail by reviewing it application to the 1984 — Fairview Lake Camp Study (July 8 to August 4). The features of the camp study are reviewed, including the study population, pulmonary function procedures and analyses, air pollution monitoring instrumentation, and the site characteristics. The pollution exposure data are presented, for ozone and acidic sulfates and examined for the range and distribution concentration. Further information is provided on the intensity and duration of episodes encountered over the course of the study. Episodes occurred which had ozone and acid sulfates, ozone alone, and acid sulfates alone.     

New international long-term ecological research on air pollution effects on the Carpathian Mountain forests,Central Europe

An international cooperative project on distribution of ozone in the Carpathian Mountains, Central Europe was conducted from 1997 to 1999. Results of that project indicated that in large parts of the Carpathian Mountains, concentrations of ozone were elevated and potentially phytotoxic to forest vegetation. That study led to the establishment of new long-term studies on ecological changes in forests and other ecosystems caused by air pollution in the Retezat Mountains, Southern Carpathians, Romania and in the Tatra Mountains, Western Carpathians on the Polish-Slovak border. Both of these important mountain ranges have the status of national parks and are Man & the Biosphere Reserves. In the Retezat Mountains, the primary research objective was to evaluate how air pollution may affect forest health and biodiversity. The main research objective in the Tatra Mountains was to evaluate responses of natural and managed Norway spruce forests to air pollution and other stresses. Ambient concentrations of ozone (O(3)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) as well as forest health and biodiversity changes were monitored on densely distributed research sites. Initial monitoring of pollutants indicated low levels of O(3), SO(2), and NO(x) in the Retezat Mountains, while elevated levels of O(3) and high deposition of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) have characterized the Tatra Mountains. In the Retezat Mountains, air pollution seems to have little effect on forest health; however, there was concern that over a long time, even low levels of pollution may affect biodiversity of this important ecosystem. In contrast, severe decline of Norway spruce has been observed in the Tatra Mountains. Although bark beetle seems to be the immediate cause of that decline, long-term elevated levels of atmospheric N and S depositions and elevated O(3) could predispose trees to insect attacks and other stresses. European and US scientists studied pollution deposition, soil and plant chemistry, O(3)-sensitive plant species, forest insects, and genetic changes in the Retezat and Tatra Mountains. Results of these investigations are presented in a GIS format to allow for a better understanding of the changes and the recommendations for effective management in these two areas.     

Relationship between air pollution and daily mortality in a subtropical city: Taipei, Taiwan

Air pollution has been associated with daily mortality in numerous studies over the past decade. However most of these studies were conducted in the United States and Europe with relatively few done in Asia. In the current study, the association between ambient air pollution and daily mortality in Taipei, Taiwan's largest city which has a subtropical climate was undertaken, for the period 1994-1998 using a case-crossover analysis. This design is an alternative to Poisson time series regression for studying the short-term adverse health effects of air pollution. The air pollutants examined included particulate matter (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), ozone (O(3)), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and carbon monoxide (CO). The largest observed effect, which was without statistical significance, was seen for NO(2) and CO levels on deaths due to respiratory diseases (ORs=1.013 and 1.014, respectively). The well established link between air pollution levels and daily mortality may not be as strong in cities in subtropical areas, although other factors such as differences in pollutant mix or the underlying health of the population may explain the lack of a strong association in this study. Further studies of this type in cities with varying climates and cultures are needed.     

跨界大气污染治理体系和政策措施——欧洲经验及对中国的启示

大气污染具有明显的跨界特性,跨区域联防联治机制是大气污染治理的重要手段。欧洲跨界大气污染治理具有完整的治理体系和丰富的实践经验,取得了显著成就,充分借鉴和吸收欧洲跨界大气污染治理的经验,对提高中国大气污染治理的科学性和有效性、推动解决大气污染治理难题具有重要意义。本文深入分析了欧洲跨界大气污染治理的背景、制度演化、治理体系和政策措施,结果发现,欧洲跨界大气污染治理机制是以EMEP为基础、以CLRTAP为核心、八项议定书为补充的不断扩展治理领域和政策边界的动态过程,其治理政策的制定表现出明显的阶段性特征。从科学化定量体系和制度化保障体系两个维度总结了欧洲跨界大气污染治理的主要措施,结合中国实际,对中国跨界大气污染治理提出了政策建议:(1)建立健全大气治理立法及配套执行体系,并严格落实问责;(2)尽快建立和完善跨界大气污染监测评估系统;(3)科学划分大气污染治理区域,成立跨区域组织领导机构;(4)加快研究制定符合国情的跨区域生态补偿机制。     

武汉市一次污染过程的局地流场和边界层结构的数值模拟

利用2013年11月武汉市逐日空气质量资料、地面气象观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和L波段雷达探空资料,通过WRF模式模拟空气污染生消过程中的局地气象条件变化,探讨特殊地形条件下边界层结构变化和局地环流在污染物生消过程中的作用和影响。结果表明：（1）武汉地区当背景环流场强的时候,由地形引起的局地流场对污染物扩散的影响就弱,反之当背景环流场弱的时候, 地形对流场影响明显:夜间为山风,白天为谷风。夜间山风与偏西北气流及偏东气流在武汉及周边地区辐合,形成气流汇聚带,在武汉地区形成一个反复污染带,即由地形引起的局地流场对污染物扩散的贡献就大;（2）武汉地区发生空气污染时,地面湿度较高,边界层呈上干下湿状态,其特征为暖而干且有偏东小风,这导致污染物不断堆积和重污染过程的形成。     

Exploring uncertainty of the change from ICD-9 to ICD-10 on acute mortality effects of air pollution

The change in ICD coding from ICD-9 to ICD-10 may produce inconsistencies and discontinuities in cause-specific mortality, thus impacting on effects estimates of air pollution on mortality. The current study was conducted in Wuhan, China. We examined the concordant rates and Kappa statistics using the mortality data from the year 2002 coded with both ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes and compared the estimated effects of air pollution using the Generalized Additive Model in R. We found high concordant rates (>99.3%) and Kappa statistics close to 1.0 (>0.98). Little difference was identified in the estimated effects of air pollution on daily cardiovascular, stroke, cardiac, cardiopulmonary, and respiratory mortality. This study provides evidence that, based on the wide definitions of cause-specific morality typically used in the studies of time-series air pollution mortality, the change in the ICD coding does not significantly affect the estimated effects of air pollution.     

Using city-wide mobile noise assessments to estimate bicycle trip annual exposure to Black Carbon

Several studies have shown that a significant amount of daily air pollution exposure, in particular Black Carbon (BC), is inhaled during bicycle trips. Previously, the instantaneous BC exposure of cyclists was modeled as the sum of a background concentration and a local traffic related component based on a local assessment of traffic noise. We present a fast and low cost methodology to achieve a city-wide assessment of yearly average BC exposure of cyclists along their trips, based on a city-wide mobile noise sensing campaign.The methodology requires participatory sensing measurements of noise, partially combined with BC and/or other air pollutants sensitive to local traffic variations. The combined measurements cover the spatial and meteorological variability and provide the data for an instantaneous exposure model. The mobile noise-only measurements map the full city; and yearly meteorology statistics are used to extrapolate the instantaneous exposure model to a yearly average map of in-traffic air pollution exposure. Less than four passages at each segment along the network with mobile noise equipment are necessary to reach a standard error of 500 ng/m³ for the yearly average BC exposure.A strong seasonal effect due to the BC background concentration is detected. The background contributes only 25% to the total trip exposure during spring and summer. During winter the background component increases to 50–60%. Engine related traffic noise along the bicyclist's route is a valid indicator of the BC exposure along the route, independent of the seasonal background. Low exposure route selection results in an exposure reduction of 35% in winter and 60% in summer, sensitive to the weather conditions, specific trip attributes and the available alternatives.The methodology is relevant for further research into the local effects of air pollution on health. Mobile noise mapping adds local traffic data including traffic dynamics into the air pollution exposure assessments. Local policy makers and urban planners can use the results to support the implementation of low exposure infrastructure, create awareness through route planners and achieve behavioral changes toward active travel modes.     

PM_(2.5)污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响

京津冀地区是中国工业最为发达的地区之一和空气污染最严重的地区之一,也是国家控制空气污染的重点区域。空气污染导致的健康影响不仅会增加额外健康支出,还会导致过早死亡和工作时间减少,进而影响宏观经济发展。为了评估该地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康问题对宏观经济的影响,以及控制空气污染后带来的经济效益和福利的影响,本研究结合可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium)、温室气体与大气污染物协同效益模型(The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies-Model,GAINS-Model)和健康影响模型对2020年京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康影响和经济影响进行评估。模型结果表明,2020年Wo Pol情景下PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京44.2亿元、天津27.5亿元、河北97.5亿元。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均每年劳动时间损失分别为北京81.3小时、天津89.6小时、河北73.1小时。而劳动力供给和劳动时间减少所造成GDP和福利损失依次为天津(GDP和福利损失分别为2.79%和8.11%),其次为北京(2.46%和5.10%)、河北(2.15%和3.44%)。如果采取积极的控制空气污染物排放政策,在2020年WPol情景下,PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京8.8亿元、天津4.9亿元、河北2.0亿元,较Wo Pol情景下显著下降。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均劳动时间损失分别下降为北京22.0小时、天津23.2小时、河北22.4小时。空气污染物控制政策给北京、天津和河北带来的经济效益分别相当于GDP的1.75%、2.02%和1.46%。因此,本研究显示控制京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染带来的经济效益非常可观,其中天津效益最高,其次为北京,河北最低。空气污染物的迁移扩散会影响周边省市的空气质量,因此京津冀地区联合控制空气污染效果更好。     

空气污染、空间外溢与公共健康——以中国珠江三角洲9个城市为例

空气污染对居民公共健康的影响,引起了人们高度的关注。但大多数学者研究从样本的独立性出发且不考虑内生性问题,忽视区域之间空间相关性,所得结论和政策建议需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于Grossman中国宏观健康生产函数,选取2001—2014年中国广东省珠江三角洲9个城市作为样本,选择以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)作为空气污染的代理指标,在充分考虑空间效应和严格假设检验的基础上选择合适的空间计量经济学模型,对此进行实证研究。主要研究结果显示:空气污染对居民的公共健康带来了负面影响,即PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每增加1%,导致哮喘疾病和内科门诊等疾病人数不断上升,且影响都比较大,尤其是对哮喘疾病的影响分别为0.2236%和0.2272%。经济增长对公共健康均有显著的促进作用,影响最大;其它财政医疗支出、卫生技术人员和人口密度等要素对居民公共健康的影响较小。由于空气污染的负外部性,研究还发现,区域之间空气污染的"溢出效应"对领域居民公共健康存在显著的影响,说明忽视空间自相关性的存在,会使得空气污染对公众健康的估计产生偏差。从长期看,空气污染对本地居民公共健康的直接效应都显著为正,PM_(2.5)间接效应显著为负,但PM_(10)间接效应并不显著。因此,各级政府除了在源头上治理污染物的排放,提高公共健康水平外,还应该打破各自为阵的行政垄断,应该作为一个整体,实现跨区域环保合作,共同治理和制定公共卫生政策等。这对区域之间协同减排和保护居民公共健康具有重要的理论和现实意义。