The future of disaster risk management

The present perspective summarizes and projects the results of a two-day workshop held in 2013 with the presence of 21 known disaster risk specialists from academia and practice. Faced with the disconnect between ever-increasing and even-accelerating disaster losses and the declared progress in disaster risk management (DRM) practice over the last eight years, the document attempts to explain the current situation and project future needs in order to increase the saliency and effect of DRM. A review of current conceptual problems and their impact on knowledge and action, of the current role of DRM in society, of governance aspects and of the notion of transformative development and its relationship to DRM is provided. The critique of current practice and understanding of disaster risk then leads to an attempt to identify key needs for the future and changes that must be introduced in order for DRM to become more mainstream and effective. Among the more central concerns, the document points to the way in which disasters are still many times seen as exogenous happenings as opposed to social constructions, product of skewed development practices. This then is reflected in much governance practice and action that are flawed. The difficulty in moving from a reactive and corrective DRM practice to a more prospective, risk avoidance practice is also highlighted.     

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non‐linear trade‐offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.     

Designing new institutions for implementing integrated disaster risk management: key elements and future directions

The goal of integrated disaster risk management is to promote an overall improvement in the quality of safety and security in a region, city or community at disaster risk. This paper presents the case for a thorough overhaul of the institutional component of integrated disaster risk management. A review of disaster management institutions in the United States indicates significant weaknesses in their ability to contribute effectively to the implementation of integrated disaster risk management. Our analysis and findings identify eight key elements for the design of dynamic new disaster management institutions. Six specific approaches are suggested for incorporating the identified key elements in building new institutions that would have significant potential for enhancing the effective implementation of integrated disaster risk management. We have developed a possible blueprint for effective design and construction of efficient, sustainable and functional disaster management institutions.     

通用震害预测基础数据库管理系统

由于震害预测数据量多面广，以文件格式存取的数据不利于数据的管理与维护，也不利于GIS二次开发，因此建立一套较为完整的震害预测基础数据库管理系统，不仅有助于防震减灾信息管理与地震应急辅助决策系统后台的数据维护和管理，也便于更有效地应用所有数据资源。在广州市部分城区震害预测与防御对策研究中开发的震害预测基础（属性）数据库管理系统，是在我国城市震害预测与防御对策研究中第一次采用SQL Server 2000和基于C／S结构及数据字典管理的震害预测数据库。该系统功能完善，应用方便，实用性和扩充能力强，并可方便地移植到其它应用中。     

中国城市综合灾害风险管理现状与对策

世界性城市灾害的加剧已成为城市化进程中的一大障碍，它也是城市化过程的产物。如何协调城市化过程与城市综合灾害风险管理，已成为当今世界、特别是像中国这样的发展中国家可持续发展的一大难题。在综述了中国城市灾害及其风险管理现状的基础上，通过对其薄弱环节的综合分析，依据作者提出的综合灾害风险管理模式，就中国城市综合灾害风险管理对策提出了3条政策建议：即完善城市灾害风险管理的信息保障机制，特别是灾害预警体系、信息共享体系和信息公开机制；加强城市综合减灾能力的建设，特别是明确城市建设中减灾工程与非工程设施投入的固定比例，完善减灾教育宣传体系和综合灾害应急响应的科技平台体系；建立城市综合灾害风险管理范式，特别是高度重视城市规划中综合减灾规划的改进和完善，加快拓展城市企业灾害保险与再保险和发展适应城市灾害风险的“安全社区”范式。     

城市灾害应急管理体制研究

城市是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,城市灾害是个全球性的问题.当前城市灾害形势依然严峻,仍面临着来自多方面的挑战.首先阐述了城市灾害应急管理的定义,针对目前城市灾害的严峻形势和灾害损失现状,分析了城市灾害应急的重要性;通过对城市灾害应急管理体制的系统分析,指出了存在的主要问题,进而提出了可行性对策:必须构建统一的城市灾害应急管理体制,建立健全的应急管理机构,充分发挥各级政府的职能,完善应急预警.同时,提出要建立城市灾害管理信息系统和灾害应急指挥决策系统,完善我国城市灾害法律法规与标准体系,建成一个科学、系统、全面的城市灾害应急管理体制.     

The uses of satellite technology in disaster management

Various kinds of Satellites, including communications, meteorology, remote sensing and geophysics satellites, are, or may become, useful tools in disaster prevention, preparedness and relief. They already provide operational capability for storm warnings and search-and-rescue efforts. Other capabilities, such as improved flood prediction and global mobile communications during relief, are close within reach. Still others, such as earthquake prediction, require considerable research. Close cooperation and communication between space technologists and disaster-management specialists will be needed in guiding research and designing and testing satellite systems. It is hoped that the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction can provide a framework for such activities.     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

利用WEBGIS实现地震灾害信息数据的管理

介绍了WEBGIS技术的特点、基本原理和实现方法，及其在管理海量地理数据中的优势，并构建了基于WEBGIS的地震灾害信息数据的主体框架。     

Making a technological choice for disaster management and poverty alleviation in India

The right mix of policy, institutional arrangements and use of technology provides the framework for a country's approach to disaster mitigation. Worldwide, there has been a shift away from a strictly 'top-down' approach relying on government alone, to a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches. The aim is to enhance the indigenous coping mechanisms of vulnerable communities; draw on their cooperative spirit and energy; and empower them through appropriate information and contextual knowledge to mitigate natural disasters. In light of this, the paper examines India's use of space technology in its disaster management efforts. Poverty alleviation and disaster management are almost inseparable in many parts of the country, as vulnerability to natural disasters is closely aligned with poverty. Addressing these issues together requires integrated knowledge systems. The paper examines how knowledge inputs from space technology have strengthened the national resolve to combat natural disasters in conjunction with alleviating rural poverty.     

城市防灾基础设施开发与管理保障机制研究

我国的城市发展已经进入了快速增长时期,城市遭受灾害威胁的形势更加严峻.在分析了我国城市防灾基础设施开发与管理的现状及存在问题的基础上,提出了其政策、经济和法规的保障机制.     

综合自然灾害风险管理理论依据探析

自然灾害风险是联合国国际减灾十年之后国际社会灾害风险管理学界研究的重点领域,而对自然灾害风险模型的深入探讨,将进一步加深人们对自然灾害风险影响因素的认识.在国际社会灾害风险管理学界对自然灾害风险模型的认识的基础上,力求对自然灾害风险模型做进一步的诠释,进而从自然灾害风险模型的再认识、人类活动对自然致灾因素的强化以及自然灾害风险的系统结构三个方面,探讨了综合自然灾害风险管理的理论依据,为制定科学的综合自然灾害风险管理战略提供理论参考.     

中国自然灾害应急管理研究进展与对策

从中国自然灾害应急管理的现状出发,系统分析了自然灾害应急管理领域的研究进展,指出了中国自然灾害应急管理在理论和实践方面存在的问题.在此基础上,提出了中国自然灾害应急管理框架,认为建立适合中国国情的自然灾害应急管理体制是提高中国自然灾害应急管理的基础;应急预案的制定和实施是规范灾害应急管理,提高灾害紧急救援能力的关键措施;灾害信息快速准确的获取和评估是灾害应急管理的有效保障;建立实际可用的应急管理系统是提高灾害应急管理水平和工作效率的根本出路.     

Free or low-cost geoinformatics for disaster management: Uses and availability issues

The disaster management applications of geographical information systems and remote sensing are examined relative to the disaster cycle, in pre-disaster, crisis and post-disaster contexts. We focus on the uses and limitations of free or low-cost data and software. A wide range of geospatial datasets are currently freely available, from digital elevation models (DEMs) and thematic digital maps, to multispectral satellite imagery and virtual globes, such as Bing Maps. Maps of hazardous terrain and vulnerable features can be derived from sets of satellite data such as shuttle radar topography mission DEMs and Landsat imagery. The derived maps are particularly useful for district scale (1:25 to 1:100 K) disaster management in low-income countries. Detailed maps (i.e. better than 1:25 K scale) of hazardous terrain and vulnerable features generally require expensive high-resolution satellite imagery or aerial photography.

Although the Internet allows the distribution of free or low-cost geospatial data, software and training materials, there are still some countries with limited Internet access. Data integration, spatial/temporal analysis and map production are also limited by the frequently high price of geoinformatic software, making it a priority to develop suitable Free and Open-Source Software.     

地震类突发事件中的公共财政应急机制

通过对我国地震应急组织体系及财政应对地震类灾害的流程分析,结合国外应对地震类突发事件的成功经验,分析了我国公共财政应对地震类灾害事件中存在的不足,最后通过对应急管理主体机理特征的分析,提出了公共财政应对地震类突发事件的五大机制,即公共财政日常运行机制、震前预警防范机制、震时响应机制、震后恢复重建机制和财政监督检查机制.