MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity (5 pp)

BACKGROUND: Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. OBJECTIVES: MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites. APPROACH: Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data and conceptual understanding for risk arising from key toxicants in aquatic ecosystems and will be used for verification of various modelling approaches. CONCLUSION AND PERSPECTIVE: The developed tools will be verified in case studies representing European key areas including Mediterranean, Western and Central European river basins. An end-user-directed decision support system will be provided for cost-effective tool selection and appropriate risk and site prioritisation.     

PM2.5 assessment in 21 European study centers of ECRHS II: Method and first winter results

The follow-up of a cohort of adults from 29 European centers of the former European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS) I (1989-1992) will examine the long-term effects of exposure to ambient air pollution on the incidence, course, and prognosis of respiratory diseases, in particular asthma and decline in lung function. The purpose of this article is to describe the methodology and the European-wide quality control program for the collection of particles with 50% cut-off size of 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) in the ECRHS II and to present the PM2.5 results from the winter period 2000-2001. Because PM2.5 is not routinely monitored in Europe, we measured PM2.5 mass concentrations in 21 participating centers to estimate background exposure in these cities. A standardized protocol was developed using identical equipment in each center (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Well Impactor Ninety-Six [WINS] and PQ167 from BGI, Inc.). Filters were weighed in a single central laboratory. Sampling was conducted for 7 days per month for a year. Winter mean PM2.5 mass concentrations (November 2000-February 2001) varied substantially, with Iceland reporting the lowest value (5 microg/m3) and northern Italy the highest (69 microg/m3). A standardized procedure appropriate for PM2.5 exposure assessment in a multicenter study was developed. We expect ECRHS II to have sufficient variation in exposure to assess long-term effects of air pollution in this cohort. Any bias caused by variation in the characteristics of the chosen monitoring location (e.g., proximity to traffic sources) will be addressed in later analyses. Given the homogenous spatial distribution of PM2.5, however, concentrations measured near traffic are not expected to differ substantially from those measured at urban background sites.     

Exposure assessment at a PCDD/F contaminated site in Sweden—field measurements of exposure media and blood serum analysis

Background, aim, and scope  

The main pathway for human exposure to the highly toxic polychlorinated-p-dioxins and polychlorinated furans [polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs)] is via dietary intake. Other exposure pathways may, however, be important in close proximity to point sources, such as wood preservation sites, where PCDD/F contaminated chlorophenols (CP) were previously used. In this study, a heavily PCDD/F contaminated CP saw mill site in Sweden was investigated. Human exposure through a broad spectrum of exposure pathways was assessed. Such studies are in demand since the question whether contaminated sites represent a current or future risk can only be answered by detailed site-specific risk assessments.     

Pilot study of personal, indoor and outdoor exposure to benzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde

There is a lack of data for health risk assessment of long term personal exposure to certain ubiquitous air pollutants present particularly in urban atmospheres. The relationship between ambient background concentrations and personal exposure is often unknown. A pilot campaign to measure indoor concentrations, outdoor concentrations and personal exposure to benzene, formaldehyde and acetaldehyde was conducted in a medium sized French town. A strong contribution to total personal exposure was observed from indoor sources, especially for formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, suggesting that indoor sources are dominant for these compounds. For benzene, the average personal exposure exceeded a 10 μgm^?3 limit value, although this was not the case for the ambient background concentration. For formaldehyde, the limit level was also exceeded. Observations suggest that true personal exposure cannot be determined directly from measurements pertaining from fixed ambient background monitoring stations. It is hoped that this will be taken into consideration by the bodies responsible for monitoring air pollution and the future European Air Quality Directive.     

River water contaminated with perfluorinated compounds potentially posing the greatest risk to young children

Although, humans are exposed to perflourinated compounds (PFCs) from various media, water consumption could be an important source for the residents living near to contaminated areas. Since comprehensive multimedia exposure model has not been developed for PFCs, assessment of the potential risk due to exposure to PFCs through direct water consumption could be a conservative estimate. The human health risks derived from the exposure to PFCs through water consumption were assessed for different age groups of general population in Taiwan using probabilistic approach. Based on available data on concentrations of PFCs in river water, exposure to PFOS, PFOA and PFDA via water consumption for different age groups were calculated using deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods. The oral non-cancer risks from PFOS, PFOA and their combination, expressed as a Hazard Index (HI), was determined by comparing oral exposure dose (through water intake) with the oral Reference Dose (RfD). The average exposure to PFOS, PFOA and PFDA via water consumption for adults ranged from 0.16 to 220.15, 0.43 to 12.5 and 0.43 to 2.36 ng kg-bw^?1 d^?1 and for children 0.13–354.3, 0.35–20.17 and 0.35–3.79 ng kg-bw^?1 d^?1, respectively. Probabilistic values of total HIs for all age groups reside near to Keya River exceed the RfD 2.4–4.8 times, corresponding mainly to PFOS with a percentage of 97%. In conclusions, children aged 1–3 years old and the residents reside near to Keya River are at the highest risk of exposure to PFCs via water consumption.     

Risk assessment of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in food--comments by the German Federal Environmental Agency

Human health risk assessments for dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs (with the exception of the one by US-EPA) recommend health based exposure limits within the range of 1-4 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bw per day. As all humans are exposed to measurable levels of dioxins and related substances, the determination of the tolerated daily intake is a very significant decision and may influence limit values guiding risk reduction measures and target levels. The proposed TDI has to protect all human subpopulations. In the case of dioxin this is particularly important as the exposure of infants through breast-feeding may exceed the exposure of adults by one or two orders of magnitude. An overview of recently recommended limit values (WHO, SCF, JECFA) for PCDDs, PCDFs and dioxin-like PCBs using WHO-TEFs shows the common feature that the values were derived only from non carcinogenic endpoints. In November 2000 the Scientific Committee on Food of the European Commission published an 'Opinion of the SCF on the Risk Assessment of Dioxins and Dioxin-like PCBs in Food' [SCF, Scientific Committee on Food 2000. Opinion of the SCF on the risk assessment of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in food. European Commission, Brussels, Adopted on November 2000 http://europa.eu.int/comm/food/fs/sc/scf/out78_en.pdf]. On the basis of this extensive review of data and experimental results the Committee recommended a temporary tolerable weekly intake (t-TWI) of 7 pg WHO-TEQ/kg bw. Only six months later the SCF carried out a re-evaluation of its t-TWI from November 2000. The reconsideration of 'pivotal studies' led to the situation that the re-assessment is now based only on rat studies which investigated only reproductive effects only on male offspring and, in addition, three of these studies are single dose studies at gestational day 15. Applying an overall uncertainty factor of 10 to the LOAEL derived estimated human daily intakes (EHDI) the SCF concluded that 14 pg/kg bw per week should be considered as a tolerable intake for 2,3,7,8-TCDD. The SCF stated that on a body weight basis, the dioxin intake of breast-fed infants has been estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude higher than the average adult intake. Recent German data suggest that the body burden of formerly breast-fed children aged 9-11 is still about 30% higher than those of their formula-fed age-mates. As breast-feeding has measurable benefits for neurological and immunological development, formula feeding cannot be recommended as an alternative to lower dioxin intake. So the only remaining way to lower the dioxin uptake is to drastically reduce the background exposure of the general population. It is acknowledged that any recommendation of a precise number for a TDI is flawed by uncertainties and the possibility of different weight being given to the studies of relevance. The determination of the TDI has influence on all regulatory limit values that are based on the TDI value. A higher TDI lowers the level of protection for humans. It is proposed by the German Federal Environmental Agency that the TDI should be reassessed in a process transparent to the public and on the basis of all relevant endpoints from animal experiments and human epidemiology, including the assessment of cancer risks.     

Uncertainties and data needs in risk assessment of three commercial polybrominated diphenyl ethers: probabilistic exposure analysis and comparison with European Commission results

Some environmental monitoring programs have reported increasing levels of certain polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) isomers in aquatic biota and in human breast milk. The commercial PBDE products are known as penta-, octa-, and deca-brominated diphenyl ethers (PeBDE, OBDE and DBDE, respectively). Aside from the current European Commission's risk assessment initiative and efforts underway in Sweden, Canada and elsewhere to evaluate environmental levels, little is understood about sources of exposure and risks to humans. In this study, a multi-pathway human health risk assessment was performed to predict theoretical chronic daily intakes (CDIs) of PeBDE, OBDE, and DBDE by five different age groups: 0-2, 2-6, 6-12, 12-18, and 18-70 years. Sources of exposure included air, drinking water, consumption of fish, vegetables, meat and dairy products, and ingestion of breast milk by infants. In addition to a deterministic analysis, the risk assessment included a probabilistic analysis to derive the probability density functions describing the range of plausible exposures associated with eight different pathways, as well as aggregate lifetime exposures for each age group. The results were compared to CDI point estimates calculated by the European Chemicals Bureau as part of the European Commission's Existing Substances Programme. The major sources of uncertainties are discussed, including environmental sources, levels in different environmental compartments, toxicity, and human exposure. This paper also discusses the limitations in the current state-of-the-science and provides recommendations for improving the scientific relevance and accuracy of future environmental risk assessments of PBDEs.     

Dioxins in adipose tissue of non-occupationally exposed persons in France: correlation with individual food exposure

We evaluated individual adipose tissue (subcutaneous lipomas) dioxin contamination in non-occupationally exposed persons living in France (adult patients undergoing a surgical ablation of benign lipomas), in relation to the corresponding individually evaluated mean daily dietary dioxin intake (DDDI). The diet survey (questionnaire) included information on consumption of meat, fish, milk and dairy products, from which the individual DDDI was calculated. Sixteen subjects participated in this study. DDDI ranged between 1.06 and 3.31 pg I-TEQ/kg body weight, bw (mean value: 2.05+/-0.72). Adipose tissue polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD)/polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) levels ranged between 18.5 and 76.9 pg I-TEQ/g lipids (mean value: 35.6+/-14.8). No relation was found between the DDDI and adipose tissue PCDD/PCDF concentrations. The mean DDDI in France does not fundamentally differ from those found in other industrialised countries, is within the range of 1-4 pg I-TEQ/kg/day recently suggested by WHO-ECEH/ICPS for the tolerable daily intake of dioxins. Adipose tissue PCDD/PCDFs levels are similar to levels in other European countries and USA without relation to sex or age, and can be considered representative European background concentrations. Globalisation of alimentary production leads to a similar food exposure in Western European countries, in spite of dioxins accidental selective contaminations that are epiphenomenon and thus do not have any impact in human dioxin background levels.     

Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009 and upcoming challenges for exposure assessment of plant protection products--Harmonisation or national modelling approaches?

In the new European Pesticide Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009, the harmonisation of approaches for estimation of the environmental exposure of pesticides is considered a major goal. Several member states currently require their own models for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) in surface water. The variety of methods makes risk evaluations rather time-consuming for both notifiers and evaluating authorities. In the present study we compare surface water concentrations of 19 compounds using EU and country-specific models and risk assessment approaches to evaluate to which extent the resulting estimated exposure concentrations differ. Our results show that EU and country specific approaches and the resulting surface water concentrations differ considerably regarding basic model assumptions and assessment methods. The results indicate that the aimed harmonisation of risk assessment approaches within the EU will be difficult based on current models. New scenarios may help to achieve a harmonisation taking country-specific features into account.     

Modeling the exposure of children and adults via diet to chemicals in the environment with crop-specific models

Exposure to chemicals via diet is a major uptake pathway for many compounds but is often estimated in a rather generic way. We use a new model framework (NMF) with crop-specific models to predict the dietary intake by 4-5-year-old children and 14-75-year-old women of three environmental compounds from their background concentrations in soil and air. Calculated daily intakes of benzo(a)pyrene and 2,3,7,8-TCDD are in good agreement with measured results from diet studies. The major source of both compounds in human diet is deposition from air. Inhalation of air and ingestion of soil play a minor role. Children take up more than twice the amount than adults per kg bodyweight, due to higher consumption per kg bodyweight. Contrary, the methods for indirect human exposure suggested in the Technical Guidance Document (TGD) for chemical risk assessment in the EU lead to overprediction, due to unrealistic consumption data and a false root model.     

Risk-based Decision Process for Arsenic in Soils: Implications of Conservative Protocols

Making defensible risk-based decisions is a complex process that incorporates risk assessment into a risk management framework. Many site investigations require additional study, negotiations and/or actions for arsenic detected in soil samples, in many cases where no process related sources are identified and no other chemicals of concern are identified. Regulatory agencies develop guidance to standardize approaches to risk-based site investigations that focus on achieving “safe” concentrations. For arsenic, the action level is frequently in the “gray region”, a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) term associated with a region of high uncertainty for risk management decisions in the “decision performance curve” associated with the data quality objective (DQO) process. Recognizing the conservative nature of the risk-based screening value for arsenic, approaches to enforce this level (or proof of comparability to natural background) may have numerous consequences including ineffective use of resources, stigmas on properties or actions at industrial or hazardous sites that are inconsistent with their regional setting. Florida has developed regulations and guidance on investigation of brownfield sites and has supported a study by the University of Florida (UF) to evaluate natural background concentrations in Florida soils. This paper discusses the sources of uncertainty near the soil cleanup target levels (SCTLs) in the Florida decision-making framework.     

Risk-based Decision Process for Arsenic in Soils: Implications of Conservative Protocols

Making defensible risk-based decisions is a complex process that incorporates risk assessment into a risk management framework. Many site investigations require additional study, negotiations and/or actions for arsenic detected in soil samples, in many cases where no process related sources are identified and no other chemicals of concern are identified. Regulatory agencies develop guidance to standardize approaches to risk-based site investigations that focus on achieving "safe" concentrations. For arsenic, the action level is frequently in the "gray region", a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) term associated with a region of high uncertainty for risk management decisions in the "decision performance curve" associated with the data quality objective (DQO) process. Recognizing the conservative nature of the risk-based screening value for arsenic, approaches to enforce this level (or proof of comparability to natural background) may have numerous consequences including ineffective use of resources, stigmas on properties or actions at industrial or hazardous sites that are inconsistent with their regional setting. Florida has developed regulations and guidance on investigation of brownfield sites and has supported a study by the University of Florida (UF) to evaluate natural background concentrations in Florida soils. This paper discusses the sources of uncertainty near the soil cleanup target levels (SCTLs) in the Florida decision-making framework.     

European union system for the evaluation of substances: the second version

This publication presents major changes in the assessment of the risks of chemicals to human health and the environment as implemented in the second version of the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, EUSES 2.0. EUSES is a harmonised quantitative risk assessment tool for chemicals. It is the PC-implementation of the technical guidelines developed within the framework of EU chemical legislation for industrial chemicals and biocides. As such, it is designed to support decision making by risk managers in government and industry and to assist scientific institutions in the risk assessment for these substances. The development of EUSES 2.0 is a co-ordinated project of the European Chemicals Bureau, EU Member States and the European chemical industry. Several model concepts, the technical background and the user interface of EUSES have been improved considerably. Major changes in the environmental assessment such as the implementation of emission scenario documents for industrial chemicals and biocides, the addition of the marine risk assessment, the enhancement of the regional model to include global scales, and improvements in the secondary poisoning and environmental effects modelling will be discussed. The update of the human risk assessment module in EUSES focuses on the risk characterisation for both threshold and non-threshold substances with, among others, the introduction of assessment factors. The performance of EUSES is illustrated in an example showing the human and environmental risk assessment of a sanitation disinfectant for private use.     

Human dietary intake of organochlorines from Baltic herring: implications of individual fish variability and fisheries management

This study examines the extent to which Finnish human dietary intake of organochlorines (PCDD/Fs and PCBs) originating from Northern Baltic herring can be influenced by fisheries management. This was investigated by estimation of human intake using versatile modeling tools (e.g., a herring population model and a bioenergetics model). We used a probabilistic approach to account for the variation in human intake of organochlorines originating from the variation among herring individuals. Our estimates were compared with present precautionary limits and recommendation for use. The results show that present consumption levels and frequencies of herring give a high probability of exceeding recommended intake limits of PCDD/Fs and PCBs. Furthermore, our results clearly demonstrate that in the risk management of dioxinlike organochlorines, regulating fishing (in this case increasing fishing pressure) is a far less effective way to decrease the risk than regulating the consumption of herring. Increased fishing would only slightly decrease organochlorine concentrations of herring in the Finnish fish market.     

Mercury in European Blushers,Amanita rubescens,mushrooms and topsoils: Bioconcentration potential and intake assessment

Total mercury content has been determined in fruiting bodies of European Blushers and topsoils collected from 11 sites across Poland in 2006-2008. Mercury analysis was carried out using a validated analytical method and cold-vapour atomic absorption (CV-AAS). The European Blusher effectively accumulated mercury in fruiting bodies. The mean values of total mercury in caps of European Blushers from background (uncontaminated) areas were from 0.22 to 1.0 (0.067-3.2) and in stipes from 0.16 to 0.65 (0.071-2.7) μg/g dry weight. In topsoil beneath to fruiting bodies, the median Hg concentration at 10 sites in Northern Poland varied between 0.030 and 0.072 (0.0096–0.19) μg/g dw, and in one site in Southern Poland was 0.20 (0.079–0.34) μg/g dw. Data on Hg in European Blushers from different countries were reviewed. The mean concentrations of total Hg in caps of European Blushers from two “pristine” sites in northern part of Poland were ～1.0 μg/g dw. A meal made with 300–500 g of fresh caps of European Blushers collected at such sites (assuming 90% water content in caps) can result in Hg intake of 0.0003–0.0005 mg Hg/kg bm (assuming a 60 kg bm), which is a dose equipotent to a new provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) value set for inorganic Hg.     

Mercury in European Blushers, Amanita rubescens, mushrooms and topsoils: bioconcentration potential and intake assessment

Total mercury content has been determined in fruiting bodies of European Blushers and topsoils collected from 11 sites across Poland in 2006-2008. Mercury analysis was carried out using a validated analytical method and cold-vapour atomic absorption (CV-AAS). The European Blusher effectively accumulated mercury in fruiting bodies. The mean values of total mercury in caps of European Blushers from background (uncontaminated) areas were from 0.22 to 1.0 (0.067-3.2) and in stipes from 0.16 to 0.65 (0.071-2.7) μg/g dry weight. In topsoil beneath to fruiting bodies, the median Hg concentration at 10 sites in Northern Poland varied between 0.030 and 0.072 (0.0096-0.19) μg/g dw, and in one site in Southern Poland was 0.20 (0.079-0.34) μg/g dw. Data on Hg in European Blushers from different countries were reviewed. The mean concentrations of total Hg in caps of European Blushers from two "pristine" sites in northern part of Poland were ～1.0 μg/g dw. A meal made with 300-500 g of fresh caps of European Blushers collected at such sites (assuming 90% water content in caps) can result in Hg intake of 0.0003-0.0005 mg Hg/kg bm (assuming a 60 kg bm), which is a dose equipotent to a new provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) value set for inorganic Hg.     

Human health risk assessment of lead from mining activities at semi-arid locations in the context of total lead exposure

Lead from historical mining and mineral processing activities may pose potential human health risks if materials with high concentrations of bioavailable lead minerals are released to the environment. Since the Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives of Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization withdrew the Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake of lead in 2011, an alternative method was required for lead exposure assessment. This study evaluated the potential lead hazard to young children (0–7 years) from a historical mining location at a semi-arid area using the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, with selected site-specific input data. This study assessed lead exposure via the inhalation pathway for children living in a location affected by lead mining activities and with specific reference to semi-arid conditions and made comparison with the ingestion pathway by using the physiologically based extraction test for gastro-intestinal simulation. Sensitivity analysis for major IEUBK input parameters was conducted. Three groups of input parameters were classified according to the results of predicted blood concentrations. The modelled lead absorption attributed to the inhalation route was lower than 2 % (mean?±?SE, 0.9 %?±?0.1 %) of all lead intake routes and was demonstrated as a less significant exposure pathway to children’s blood, compared with ingestion. Whilst dermal exposure was negligible, diet and ingestion of soil and dust were the dominant parameters in terms of children’s blood lead prediction. The exposure assessment identified the changing role of dietary intake when house lead loadings varied. Recommendations were also made to conduct comprehensive site-specific human health risk assessment in future studies of lead exposure under a semi-arid climate.     

The use of environmental risk assessment methodologies for an indoor air quality investigation

The authors of this paper chose several target compounds that have been found in average US homes, applied the current United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Superfund risk assessment methodologies to indoor air quality, and produced risk numbers for hazard quotients and predicted increases in incidence of cancer which would be unacceptable at US hazardous waste sites. The calculations were made for the average child and adult with USEPA default exposure values. Calculations were also made for a worst case scenario using maximum concentrations and exposure estimates defined by the USEPA as describing the reasonable exposure (RME). Significant cancer risks and non-cancer hazard quotients were predicted.     

A list of fish species that are potentially exposed to pesticides in edge-of-field water bodies in the European Union—a first step towards identifying vulnerable representatives for risk assessment

Surrogate species are used in standard toxicity tests for the environmental risk assessment of chemicals. Test results are then extrapolated to the situation in the field, which is often associated with a large degree of uncertainty. Since a vulnerable species in the field is not only characterised by its intrinsic sensitivity to a stressor but also by its potential for exposure and its population resilience, the identification of focal species based on these three components of vulnerability is needed for a more ecologically relevant risk assessment. This study listed European fish species that are susceptible to pesticide exposure in the field and thus achieved the first step towards identifying focal species for the risk assessment of pesticides for fish in Europe. A step-wise filtering approach was applied to list freshwater fish species that are native to Europe and widespread in the European Union, which inhabit streams, ditches or ponds in agricultural landscapes and therefore, are at an elevated risk of being exposed to pesticides. Out of the 579 fish species occurring in European freshwater, 27 species met the filtering criteria. The resulting list was verified based on monitoring studies that were conducted in agricultural landscapes over the past 20 years. Focal fish species that can be used for a more ecologically relevant environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Europe can be identified from the produced list of species by further assessing their ecological (life history and dispersal characteristics) and intrinsic sensitivities.