Modeling the supply of wastepaper

Utilizing a price expectations model of wastepaper supplies Edwards [J. Environ. Econ. Manag.6, 332–334 (1979)] claims to be able to explain certain anomalies in earlier empirical work while reaffirming the view that wastepaper supply is generally price inelastic. This paper presents evidence to show that the price expectations model does not offer an adequate explanation of the state of affairs in the U.K. wastepaper market. The low price elasticity of supply findings are, however, confirmed.     

Secondary materials and international trade: A comment on the domestic market

Concentrating on wastepaper, Grace et al. [J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 5, 172–186 (1978)] have argued that international trade in secondary materials can effectively help to stabilize their prices. In their modeling, however, they erroneously assume that pulp sets the upper bound for the price of wastepaper. This paper presents evidence to the contrary. Pulp contracts are typically long term, so wastepaper is frequently an input of last resort. The wastepaper price can therefore easily exceed the price pulp when output demand is high. A geometric model is presented to formalize this explanation, and it is argued from there that the increased stability offered by trade is more significant than suggested by Grace et al.     

Geographic variation in allele frequency of the gamete recognition protein M7 lysin throughout a mosaic blue mussel hybrid zone

Divergence at gamete recognition loci is hypothesized to result in speciation in broadcast spawning invertebrates. Many gamete recognition loci evolve quickly and show patterns of positive selection, yet the advantage of divergence is rarely known. M7 lysin is a sperm protein in the Mytilus edulis species complex that shows evidence of adaptive evolution. This locus is polymorphic with two distinct clades within Mytilus galloprovincialis, one of which, the D clade, shows the strongest signal of positive selection. We tested whether the geographic patterns in allele frequency were consistent with the hypothesis that positive selection on D clade alleles (G _D ) was due to reinforcement. Populations of M. edulis showed little evidence of introgression of G _D alleles, but there was no consistent evidence of reproductive character displacement. The lack of consistent patterns expected of reinforcement suggests that another mechanism is likely responsible for the adaptive divergence of M7 lysin.     

Investment in cleaner technology and signaling distortions in a market with green consumers

I analyze the pricing and investment behavior of a firm that signals the environmental attributes of its production technology through its price to uninformed environmentally conscious consumers. I then analyze the effect of change in environmental regulation on the signaling outcome and the firm's ex ante incentive to invest in cleaner technology. When regulation is weak, a firm signals cleaner technology through higher price; in this case, the firm earns lower profit when it has cleaner technology and thus, has no incentive to invest in cleaner technology. The price charged by the clean firm declines sharply beyond a critical level of regulation. When regulation is sufficiently stringent, the firm with cleaner technology charges lower price but earns higher signaling profit, and ex ante the firm has positive incentive to invest in cleaner technology. With weak regulation, the incentive of the firm to directly disclose its environmental performance rather than signal it through price is increasing in the level of regulation; the opposite holds when regulation is sufficiently stringent.     

Investment in cleaner technology and signaling distortions in a market with green consumers

I analyze the pricing and investment behavior of a firm that signals the environmental attributes of its production technology through its price to uninformed environmentally conscious consumers. I then analyze the effect of change in environmental regulation on the signaling outcome and the firm's ex ante incentive to invest in cleaner technology. When regulation is weak, a firm signals cleaner technology through higher price; in this case, the firm earns lower profit when it has cleaner technology and thus, has no incentive to invest in cleaner technology. The price charged by the clean firm declines sharply beyond a critical level of regulation. When regulation is sufficiently stringent, the firm with cleaner technology charges lower price but earns higher signaling profit, and ex ante the firm has positive incentive to invest in cleaner technology. With weak regulation, the incentive of the firm to directly disclose its environmental performance rather than signal it through price is increasing in the level of regulation; the opposite holds when regulation is sufficiently stringent.     

Adaptive cluster double sampling with post stratification with application to an epiphytic lichen community

The implementation of an adaptive cluster sampling design often becomes logistically challenging because variation in the final sampling effort introduces uncertainty in survey planning. To overcome this drawback, an inexpensive and easy to measure auxiliary variable could be used in a two-phase survey strategy, called adaptive cluster double sampling (Félix-Medina and Thompson in Biometrika 91:877–891, 2004). In this paper, a two-phase sampling strategy is proposed which combines the idea of adaptive cluster double sampling with the principle of post-stratification. In the first-phase an adaptive cluster sample is selected by means of an inexpensive auxiliary variable. Networks from the first phase sampling are then post-stratified according to their size. In the second-phase, the network structure is used to select a subsample of units by means of stratified random sampling. The proposed sampling strategy employs stratification without requiring an a priori delineation of the strata. Indeed, the strata sizes are estimated in the course of the two-phase sampling process. Therefore, it is suitable for situations where stratification is suspected to be efficient but strata cannot be easily delineated in advance. In this framework, a new type of estimator for the population mean which mimics the stratified sampling mean estimator and an estimator of the sampling variance are proposed. The results of a simulation study confirm, as expected, that the use of post-stratification leads to gain in precision for the estimator. The proposed sampling strategy is applied for targeting an epiphytic lichen community Lobarion pulmonariae in a forest area of the Northern Apennines (N-Italy), characterized by several species of conservation concern.     

Genetic differentiation in populations of two Palaemon prawn species at the Atlantic east coast: does gene flow prevent local adaptation?

Two Palaemon prawn species, P. adspersus Rathke and P. squilla (L.), occur along the European Atlantic coast. In areas heavily affected by tides (Netherlands and France), one species, P. squilla, inhabits the intertidal zone, and P. adspersus is found subtidally in the Zostera marina meadows. In areas with small tidal ranges (Sweden) both species occur in the Z. marina zone, and here the body size of P. squilla is reduced, something that in turn reduces reproductive output in this species. Is adaptive improvement in non-tidal P. squilla populations prevented by too extensive gene flow from tidal areas? To wanswer this, genetic differentiation was studied by horizontal starch gel electrophoresis. Each of the two species was sampled at five sites along the European Atlantic coast. Twenty-two enzymes representing 25 loci were scored. Significant genetic heterogeneity between sites was found in both species. Thus the extensive gene flow hypothesis was not supported by the results, and non-tidal populations ought to have the possibility to adapt to local conditions.     

Impact of energy structure adjustment on air quality: a case study in Beijing, China

Energy consumption is a major cause of air pollution in Beijing, and the adjustment of the energy structure is of strategic importance to the reduction of carbon intensity and the improvement of air quality. In this paper, we explored the future trend of energy structure adjustment in Beijing till 2020, designed five energy scenarios focusing on the fuel substitution in power plants and heating sectors, established emission inventories, and utilized the Mesoscale Modeling System Generation 5 (MM5) and the Models-3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) to evaluate the impact of these measures on air quality. By implementing this systematic energy structure adjustment, the emissions of PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, NO _x , and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) will decrease distinctly by 34.0%, 53.2%, 78.3%, 47.0%, and 30.6% respectively in the most coalintensive scenario of 2020 compared with 2005. Correspondingly, MM5-Models-3/CMAQ simulations indicate significant reduction in the concentrations of major pollutants, implying that energy structure adjustment can play an important role in improving Beijing??s air quality. By fuel substitution for power plants and heating boilers, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, SO₂, NO _x , and NMVOCs will be reduced further, but slightly by 1.7%, 4.5%, 11.4%, 13.5%, and 8.8% respectively in the least coal-intensive scenario. The air quality impacts of different scenarios in 2020 resemble each other, indicating that the potential of air quality improvement due to structure adjustment in power plants and heating sectors is limited. However, the CO₂ emission is 10.0% lower in the least coal-intensive scenario than in the most coal-intensive one, contributing to Beijing??s ambition to build a low carbon city. Except for energy structure adjustment, it is necessary to take further measures to ensure the attainment of air quality standards.     

Higher calcification costs at lower temperatures do not break the temperature-size rule in an intertidal gastropod with determinate growth

The vast majority of ectothermic organisms grow larger when developing at cooler environmental temperatures, a pattern frequently referred to as the temperature-size rule (TSR). Assuming that this reaction norm has adaptive significance, life history theory predicts that converse patterns may evolve if favored by natural selection, namely if the costs associated with complying to the TSR outweigh the benefits. Calcifying ectotherms may comprise such an exception not following the TSR, because calcification is expected to be more costly at lower temperatures thus increasing associated costs. To test this hypothesis, we reared wild-caught juveniles of the intertidal gastropod Monetaria annulus and compared their shell sizes at the end of the juvenile stage between two rearing temperatures. Contrary to our prediction, M. annulus does follow the TSR, suggesting that increased calcification costs at lower temperatures are not high enough to break the TSR. Such plastic responses should be considered when interpreting geographical patterns such as latitudinal size clines, which may be caused at least partly by phenotypic plasticity.     

Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results.     

Male-biased sex ratios in New Zealand fur seal pups relative to environmental variation

A number of models have been proposed to provide adaptive explanations of sex-ratio variation in mammals. Two models have been applied commonly to primates and ungulates with varying success—the Trivers-Willard (TW) hypothesis, and the local resource competition (LRC) hypothesis. For polygynous, sexually dimorphic mammals, where males are larger and disperse more readily, these models predict opposite outcomes of sex-ratio adjustment within the same environmental context (high-resource years: TW—more sons; LRC—more daughters). However, many of the predictions of these two models can vary depending on factors influencing resource availability, such as environmental stochasticity, resource predictability, and population density. The New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) is a polygynous mammal showing marked sexual dimorphism (larger males), with higher variation in male reproductive success expected. We provide clear evidence of male-biased sex ratios from a large sample of A. forsteri pups captured around South Island, New Zealand during 1996/1998, even after accounting for a sex bias in capture probability. The extent of the bias depended upon year and, in 1998, strong climatic perturbations (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, ENSO) probably reduced food availability. Significant male-biased sex ratios were found in all years; however, there was a significant decline in the male bias in 1998. There was no relationship between sex ratio and population density. We suggest that the sex-ratio bias resulted from the production of relatively more male pups. Under the density-independent scenario, the strong male bias in A. forsteri sex ratios is support for the TW model within an environment of high resource predictability. We suggest that some plasticity in the determination of pup sex among years is a mechanism by which A. forsteri females in New Zealand, and perhaps other otariid seals, can maximise fitness benefits when living in regions of high, yet apparently predictable, environmental variability. We also suggest that much of the inconsistency in the reported sex ratios for otariid seals results from the complex interaction of population density and environmental stochasticity influencing relative food availability over time.     

Estimating photophysiological condition of endosymbiont-bearing Baculogypsina sphaerulata based on the holobiont color represented in CIE L*a*b* color space

Symbiont-bearing large benthic foraminifers (LBFs) are widely distributed around coral reefs. If the physiological responses of LBFs to environmental changes can be recognized at an individual level, LBFs could serve as highly accurate bioindicators. In this study, chlorophyll a, respiration, and photosynthesis of Baculogypsina sphaerulata individuals were measured, and whether these physiological traits could be estimated based on the color of the holobiont (foraminifera and the diatom symbionts) was examined. Chlorophyll a content was estimated using a* and b* values of holobiont color represented in CIE L*a*b* color space. Photosynthetic performance decreased significantly with increasing whiteness (L*). These results indicated chlorophyll content as well as photosynthetic performance of Baculogypsina could be directly estimated using the holobiont color. The increased whiteness in color and decreased photosynthetic performance were mainly observed under low-light environment, possibly indicating symbiotic algae were shrunk into the central part of the host shell due to prolonged exposure to adverse conditions.     

Is natural hatching asynchrony optimal? An experimental investigation of sibling competition patterns in a facultatively siblicidal seabird

In unpredictable environments, any tactic that enables avian parents to adjust brood size and, thus, energy expenditure to environmental conditions should be favoured. Hatching asynchrony (HA), which occurs whenever incubation commences before clutch completion, may comprise such a tactic. For instance, the sibling rivalry hypothesis states that the hierarchy among chicks, concomitant to HA, should both facilitate the adjustment of brood size to environmental conditions and reduce several components of sibling competition as compared to synchronous hatching, at both brood and individual levels. We thus predicted that brood aggression, begging and feeding rates should decrease and that older chick superiority should increase with HA increasing, leading to higher growth and survival rates. Accordingly, we investigated the effects of an experimental upward and downward manipulation of HA magnitude on behaviour, growth and survival of black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) chicks. In line with the sibling rivalry hypothesis, synchronous hatching increased aggression and tended to increase feeding rates by parents at the brood level. Begging rates, however, increased with HA contrary to our expectations. At the individual level, as HA magnitude increased, the younger chick was attacked and begged proportionally more often, experienced a slower growth and a higher mortality than its sibling. Overall, the occurrence of energetic costs triggered by synchronous hatching both for parents and chicks, together with the lower growth rate and increased mortality of the younger chick in highly asynchronous broods suggest that natural HA magnitude may be optimal.     

Did the Clean Air Act cause the remarkable decline in sulfur dioxide concentrations?

Over the last three decades, ambient concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) air pollution have declined by approximately 80%. This paper tests whether the 1970 Clean Air Act and its subsequent amendments caused this decline. The centerpiece of this legislation is the annual assignment of all counties to SO₂ nonattainment or attainment categories. Polluters face stricter regulations in nonattainment counties. There are two primary findings. First, regulators pay little attention to the statutory selection rule in their assignment of the SO₂ nonattainment designations. Second, SO₂ nonattainment status is associated with modest reductions in SO₂ air pollution, but a null hypothesis of zero effect generally cannot be rejected. This finding holds whether the estimated effect is obtained with linear adjustment or propensity score matching. Overall, the evidence suggests that the nonattainment designation played a minor role in the dramatic reduction of SO₂ concentrations over the last 30 years.     

Factors influencing sexual cannibalism and its benefit to fecundity and offspring survival in the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata (Araneae: Lycosidae)

Sexual cannibalism is hypothesized to have evolved as a way to obtain a high-quality meal, as an extreme mate choice or as a consequence of female aggressive spillover. Here, we examined underlying factors likely to influence sexual cannibalism in the wolf spider Pardosa pseudoannulata (Bösenberg & Strand, 1906) from China, including mating status, female egg-laid status, female hunger level, female adult age and mate size dimorphism. The results showed that about 10 % of P. pseudoannulata virgin females cannibalized the approaching males before mating and that 28 % of P. pseudoannulata virgin females immediately cannibalized the males after mating. No incidents of sexual cannibalism during copulation were observed. Before mating, previously mated females and starved females tended to engage in significantly higher rates of attacks compared to virgin and well-fed females. Females that had laid egg sacs tended to engage in a significantly higher rate of attacks and sexual cannibalism than virgin females before mating. Regardless of pre- or post-mating, there was a strong positive relationship between mate size dimorphism and the occurrence of sexual cannibalism. We also tested the effects of sexual cannibalism on the fecundity of cannibalistic females and the survival of their offspring. Our results indicated that sexual cannibalism affected positively the offspring survival of cannibalistic females, but not fecundity. Our findings support the hypothesis that sexual cannibalism has evolved as an adaptive component of female foraging strategy and that it benefits offspring survival as a result of paternal investment.     

Experience affects mating behavior, but does not impact parental reproductive allocation in a lizard

Investment into reproduction is influenced by multiple factors and varies substantially between males and females. Theory predicts that males should adjust their ejaculate size or quality in response to variation in female experience or phenotypic quality. In addition, sperm investment by males may also be influenced by their own status and experience. Although such adjustments of male ejaculate size can impact reproductive success (via fertilization success), fitness returns from male sperm investment may be influenced (either limited or facilitated) by the level of maternal investment. To test this hypothesis, we conducted an experiment that simultaneously evaluated the effect of paternal and maternal experience (which incorporates mating status, age, body size, and other related variables) on paternal sperm investment and maternal reproductive allocation in the lizard Anolis sagrei. During staged mating trials, experienced males were more likely to copulate with females, but these individuals were less likely to transfer sperm during mating than were naïve individuals. Maternal experience had no impact on these mating behaviors. In contrast to expectations, experience and phenotypic quality (of both sexes) had no impact on male ejaculate size or quality (proportion of live sperm) or on maternal reproductive investment (in terms of egg size and yolk steroids). These findings were intriguing given the mating system and past evidence for differential maternal investment in relation to sire quality in A. sagrei. The results found in this study highlight the complexity of reproductive investment patterns, and we urge caution when applying general conclusions across populations or taxa.     

Direct measurements of the drag force over aligned arrays of cubes exposed to boundary-layer flows

Wind tunnel measurements of the total drag force for aligned arrays of cubes exposed to two different boundary-layer flows at three flow velocities are discussed. The drag force for eight different building packing densities λ _p (from 0.028 to 1) is measured with a standard load cell generating a novel dataset. Different λ _p are reproduced by increasing the number of buildings on the same lot area; this represents a real situation that an urban planner is faced with when a lot area of a given (fixed) size is allocated to the development of new built areas. It is assumed that the surrounding terrain is uniform and there is a transition from a given roughness (smooth) to a new roughness (rough). The approaching flow will adjust itself over the new surface within a distance that in general may be larger than the horizontal length covered by the array. We investigate the region where the flow adjustment occurs. The wide range of packing densities allowed us to analyse in detail the evolution of the drag force. The drag force increases with increasing packing densities until it reaches a maximum at an intermediate packing density (λ _p  = 0.25 in our case) followed by a slight decrease at larger packing densities. The value of the drag force depends on the flow adjustment along the array which is evaluated by introducing the parameter “drag area” to retrieve information about the drag distribution at different λ _p . Results clearly suggest a change of the distribution of the drag force, which is found to be relatively uniform at low packing densities, while most of the force acts on first rows of the arrays at large packing densities. The drag area constitutes the basis for the formulation of a new adjustment length scale defined as the ratio between the volume of the air within the array and the drag area. The proposed adjustment length scale automatically takes into account the change in drag distribution along the array for a better parameterization of urban effects in dispersion models.     

Role of the natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings on global warming: evidence from cointegration–VECM analysis

Over the last few years there has been much debate about the hypothesis that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases increase global temperature permanently. By using recent advances in time series econometrics, this paper tries to answer the question on how human activity affects Earth’s surface temperatures. Bearing in mind this goal, we estimated the long-run cointegration relations between global temperatures and changes in radiative forcings by a set of perturbing factors. We found that the temperature response to a doubling in radiative forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases is + 2.94 °C [95 % CI: + 1.91, + 3.97], in perfect accordance with prior research, and that the orthogonalized cumulated effect over a 100 year time period, in response to a unit increase of size of one standard deviation in greenhouse gas radiative forcing, is + 3.86 °C [95 % CI: + 0.03, + 6.54]. Conversely, the amplitude of solar irradiance variability is hardly sufficient to explain observed variations in the Earth’s climate. Our results show that the combined effect of stochastic trends attributable to anthropogenic radiative forcing variations are driving the Earth’s climate system toward an ongoing phase of global warming, and that such long-run movement is unlikely to be transient.     

Ladybird mothers mitigate offspring starvation risk by laying trophic eggs

A large proportion of ladybird beetle (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) eggs are apparently infertile—they do not develop an embryo and are consumed by larvae hatching within the egg batch. The predicted benefits of egg consumption for larvae are empirically well supported. An important question, however, remains: are these eggs a maternal strategy to feed offspring (i.e., trophic eggs) or did egg eating evolve to exploit unavoidably infertile eggs? We investigated the adaptive value of infertile eggs in laboratory experiments with multicoloured Asian ladybirds (Harmonia axyridis). Female H. axyridis were assigned to low and high resource environments for brief intervals; we predicted that tactics to facilitate egg cannibalism, such as infertile egg production and hatching asynchrony, would be adopted in low food environments in which starvation risk for offspring is greater. We conducted two experiments in this manner that provided females with information about resource levels through prey feeding or scent. We also observed female oviposition patterns and tested for infertile egg distributions that departed from random. Females produced 56% more infertile eggs in the low vs. the high food treatment; however, hatching synchrony did not change. We consider a potential confound between information and nutrition state unlikely because ladybirds are well able to tolerate low food for 24 h, the duration of trials, and because females were in good condition when trials began. Results suggest that ladybirds use information from prey encounter to manipulate the proportion of trophic eggs in a manner consistent with the adaptive hypothesis, the first evidence of trophic egg plasticity in a non-eusocial insect.     

Alternative feeding mechanisms in megalopae of the blue crab Callinectes sapidus

The apparent mismatch between the energy requirements for planktotrophic growth and prey availability has long been paradoxical. One hypothesis to explain this paradox is that planktotrophic larvae display plasticity in feeding mechanisms in response to variable prey types and concentrations. This hypothesis was tested by videotaping megalopae of the brachyuran crab Callinectes sapidus Rathbun feeding on various-sized prey. Frame-by-frame analysis of the videotapes indicated that C. sapidus megalopae used both raptorial and suspension feeding to capture prey while in the water column. Raptorial feeding was used to capture macro-zooplankton, including copepods. The swimming form of suspension feeding was based on a modified fling-and-clap mechanism using the chelipeds. Suspension feeding while at rest utilized a weak current generated by the mouthparts to direct prey to the mouth. Both suspension-feeding mechanisms resulted in the efficient capture of rotifer-sized particles. The energy/handling time ratios for all three feeding mechanisms are very similar (E/H range 0.016-0.019 µg C s^-1) for the natural prey tested. These results support the hypothesis that feeding in brachyuran larvae is plastic and includes mechanisms of both raptorial and suspension feeding. The ability to suspension feed at rest is adaptive, since megalopae use selective tidal transport to re-invade an estuary and may spend up to 18 h day^-1 clinging to a benthic substrate. Electronic supplementary material to this paper can be obtained by using the Springer LINK server located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00227-002-0781-1.