森林地表可燃物含水率与海拔关系研究

大兴安岭天然林保护工程重点区域,也是森林火灾频发的重灾区。收集测定了177组森林地表可燃物含水率数据,整理成列联表,进行列联表分析。结果表明,所研究区域的森林地表可燃物在低海拔含水率较高,随着海拔的升高,含水率呈现明显的降低趋势。研究结果可为进一步建立更加精确的大兴安岭林区森林地表可燃物含水率预测模型提供理论基础,对于该林区火灾预防工作意义重大。     

彩虹粉引燃危险性实验研究

为了研究彩虹粉引燃危险性,应用固体燃烧速率试验仪初步甄别了彩虹粉传播燃烧能力,发现堆垛状彩虹粉固体火焰传播危险性较低;采用粉尘爆炸筛选装置,判定彩虹粉具有爆炸性;应用最小点火能测定装置测定彩虹粉粉尘云的最小点火能在24~60 mJ之间,最优爆炸浓度为1 167 g/m3;应用快速筛选量热仪测试,彩虹粉在227℃开始分解;固体自燃点测试仪显示彩虹粉在250℃附近会发生自燃。向彩虹粉内添加不同比例相近粒径分布的食用盐粉体进行抑爆研究,结果证明食用盐对彩虹粉具有明显的抑爆效果。     

基于Logistic回归模型的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测研究*

为实现对大兴安岭地区林火发生概率的基本预测,根据该地区历史火灾资料、地形因子、气象因子和人为因子,基于Logistic回归模型建立该地区林火发生概率预测模型。研究结果表明:坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温、平均相对湿度、最小相对湿度是该地区林火发生的主要驱动因子;坡度、海拔、平均气压、平均气温与林火发生概率呈正相关,平均相对湿度和最小相对湿度与林火发生概率呈负相关;ROC曲线下面积值（AUC）为0.91,最佳临界值为0.425;建立的大兴安岭地区林火发生概率预测模型,建模样本总体准确率为82.4%,验证样本总体准确率为80.5%;该地区夏季林火发生概率明显高于春、秋季;林火发生概率较高的Ⅳ级和Ⅴ级火险区主要集中在夏季该地区东南部、西部以及春、秋季该地区东南部。研究结果可为该地区林火预测提供1种参考方法。     

高压击穿电弧作用下开关柜内典型阻燃绝缘件引燃特性的实验研究

高压开关柜内的绝缘件失效故障,易引发火灾事故、区域停电甚至影响电网系统的稳定运行。基于高压击穿电弧模拟与材料引燃机理综合模拟实验平台,针对4 mm厚支柱绝缘子和固封极柱,开展了15 kV击穿电弧作用下的系列引燃实验研究。结果表明,高压电极横向击穿后,电弧迅速上翻形成自上而下“夹持”样品的倒“U”形弧柱,弧根与弧顶首先炭化或引燃。阻燃绝缘件样品顶部形成火焰后,随着燃烧的进行,逐渐从顶部形成穿透样品的内部击穿电弧,该电弧易诱发剧烈燃烧的水平喷射火焰。内部击穿电弧位置向下移动呈“2阶段”特征:在初始阶段较慢,支柱绝缘子和固封极柱样品内击穿点下移速度分别约为2.55 mm/s和1 .74 mm/s,而在第2阶段分别增大至78.50 mm/s和35.03 mm/s。此外,高压起弧瞬间,在紧邻电极上方的绝缘材料表面,升温速率可达180 ℃/s。研究结果可用于高压开关柜各类阻燃绝缘件的科学选型与优化设计,为开关柜防火安全性能的提升提供科学依据。     

城市生态文明建设进程中生态足迹的动态演变及驱动因子分析——以南宁市为例

用扩展的STIRPAT模型、主成分回归分析法,对南宁市2005~2012年生态足迹、化石能源足迹的驱动机制进行分析,并对南宁市经济增长与生态足迹、化石能源足迹的演变关系进行Kuznets曲线检验。结果表明:总人口、人均GDP、城市化率对南宁市生态足迹、化石能源足迹具有正向驱动作用,而万元GDP能耗、第三产业产值比重对生态足迹、化石能源足迹的驱动作用为负向,在2005~2012年经济增长与生态足迹、化石能源足迹的Kuznets曲线检验中并没有呈现"倒U型",南宁市的经济发展仍处于经济增长伴随着生态环境压力增大的阶段。     

模式识别在火灾调查中的汽油分类问题的应用研究

在火灾调查中,检测汽油成分并对其进行正确分类尤为重要.运用GC-MS对90#和93#两种普通汽油的共50个样本进行检测,所得的GC-MS原始数据通过PCA方法进行处理,以提取有用信息,避免冗余变量进入后续计算.在此基础上应用KNN方法对这两种汽油助燃剂进行分类.结果表明, KNN方法对这两种汽油的分类准确率达到100%,且当初始数据未经标准化预处理时也能达到同样准确的分类效果.研究表明:将模式识别方法正确地运用到助燃剂鉴定和分类工作中有助于火灾调查.     

基于PCA-AHPSO-SVR的煤层瓦斯含量预测研究

为了提高煤层瓦斯含量预测的准确性和科学性,通过主成分分析方法对影响煤层瓦斯含量的7个因素进行特征提取,消除影响因素之间的相关性,减少维度;用支持向量回归机对提取的因素进行训练,并用改进的自适应混合粒子群算法对SVR的参数进行优化,提出PCA-AHPSO-SVR模型;与PCA-PSO-SVR,PSO-SVR这2个模型在相同环境下进行30次运行比较。研究结果表明:研究提出的PCA-AHPSO-SVR模型较其他2种模型平均准确率分别提高5.51%和9.32%,稳定性更佳,可满足工程实际需求。     

基于主成分分析的公路隧道消防安全系统评价研究

基于系统安全分析方法并结合数理统计理论,建立了隧道消防安全系统原理图及评估指标体系,运用多元统计理论中的主成分分析法,构造了一种基于统计基础上的综合评估函数,对近年来的典型火灾隧道的防火安全系统进行了合理评估,针对评估结果构造了分级标准,提出了公路隧道消防安全等级评估的新思路.以雪峰山隧道的实例计算表明,该评估模型具有简便性、可操作性和准确性,能全面地反映隧道消防安全系统状况,以便及时发现隐患,减少火灾的潜在危险.     

安全投入与事故直接经济损失的研究

通过对安全投入及事故直接经济损失的分析研究,利用最小二乘法对安全投入比例(安全投入占GDP的比例)与事故直接经济损失之间的关系进行了回归分析,确定了其对应的函数关系.结果表明,安全投入比例与事故直接经济损失之间呈较明显的负指数关系.根据该计算结果,探讨了安全投入存在的主要问题,提出了几点关于加强安全投入的建议及措施.     

基于统计学方法的南方某市管网水水质特征研究

为综合解析南方某市管网末梢水水质的时空变化特征、识别主要响应指标及指标间相关性,以该市近4年供水管网末梢水水质监测数据为研究对象,利用主成分分析法和对应分析法对管网末梢水质进行了特征研究。主成分分析法评价结果表明:该市管网末梢水年度总体水质存在差异,其中以2016年为最佳;夏秋季节更易发生水质异常现象,5~9月应加强管网末梢水水质管控;区域上看已完成深度处理改造的梅林水厂供水覆盖区管网末梢水水质最优,南山水厂供水覆盖区管网末梢水水质最差;水质指标硫酸盐、氯化物、硬度之间,Fe、浊度、总氯之间具有相对其他水质指标更高的相关性。对应分析法结果表明:管网末梢水水质主要响应指标可重点关注Fe、浊度、耗氧量、总氯和硫酸盐;其中Fe、浊度、耗氧量呈正相关性强,上述指标与硫酸盐、总氯呈负相关性。     

Experimental study on the influence of the nitrogen concentration in the air on the minimum ignition energies of combustible powders due to electrostatic discharges

As a useful method of preventing dust explosions, nitrogen (N₂), an incombustible gas, has been applied to an explosive atmosphere. This paper is a report that quantitatively determines whether the minimum ignition energy of powder depends on the nitrogen (or oxygen) concentration in the air. Hartman vertical-tube apparatus and six sample powders were used in this study. The results show that the minimum ignition energies of all of the powders used in this study increased with increased amounts of N₂ in the air. However, the effects were different in all of the sample powders. We finally suggest that the N₂ concentration of 84% (or above) prevents dust explosions due to electrostatic discharges in the industrial process with the sample powders used in this experiment.     

酒精蒸气/烟草粉尘两相混合体系最小点火能试验研究

在烟草加工的加香工序,挥发的酒精和搅拌混料产生的烟草粉尘形成气粉混合体系,其燃爆特性相较于单相烟草粉尘有较大变化。对20 L爆炸球进行了部分改造,可完成20℃～80℃环境温度、100%LEL以下酒精蒸气浓度、最大2 J电火花能量组合的气粉混合物的最小点火能测试。选用烘丝和加香烟草粉尘做对比,探究了环境温度和酒精蒸气浓度对酒精蒸气/烟草粉尘两相混合体系点火能的影响规律。结果表明：相同环境温度下,加香烟草粉尘的最小点火能比烘丝烟草粉尘低;加香粉尘、烘丝粉尘及混合体系的最小点火能随环境温度变化的趋势一致,均随温度的升高而降低;加入10%LEL的酒精蒸气后,相同温度下气粉混合体系的最小点火能低于单相烟草粉尘。随着环境温度的升高,二者的差值逐渐减小,酒精蒸气诱导烟草粉尘最小点火能降低的能力逐步减小甚至消失;在电点火条件下,当酒精蒸气浓度低于50%LEL时,气粉混合体系较难被点燃,当酒精蒸气浓度高于75%LEL时,混合体系较易被点燃。     

两种含水率水稻堆垛的着火与蔓延燃烧特性实验研究

粮食安全事关国计民生,近年来粮仓火灾多发,对于粮食火灾安全的基础性研究,显得愈加迫切。基于自主设计的贯穿气流条件下的散粒堆垛引燃与蔓延燃烧特性研究实验平台,针对两种含水率水稻,在不同贯穿气流条件下,开展了引燃与内部蔓延燃烧特性研究。结果表明,水稻含水率对其燃烧特性具有重要影响,即,对于13%含水率水稻,采用高温电热细棒插入堆垛内进行引燃45 min,并未引燃;然而,对于3%含水率水稻,仅引燃4 min,堆垛即形成迅速剧烈蔓延燃烧,中心区域燃烧温度高达1 200℃,最大蔓延速度约0.8 cm/s,引燃前的最大升温速率约200℃/min。此外,结果还表明,贯穿气流条件下,远离中心区域的四周水稻升温较慢且剩余一些最终未引燃,水稻堆垛内部主要呈向下且不断扩大的蔓延燃烧特征。最后,13%含水率水稻被灼热引火源作用结束后形成的碳化圈大小表明,机械通风气调作用对于灼热源的引燃作用具有一定的抑制作用。     

Study of lignocellulosic biomass ignition properties estimation from thermogravimetric analysis

In the last decade, the use of renewable resources has increased significantly in order to reduce the energetic dependence on fossil fuels, as they have an important contribution to the global warning and greenhouse gasses effect. Because of that, research on biofuels has been increased in the last years as its characteristics of use match those of the conventional fuel's: solid biomass can be used instead of coals, and biodiesel could replace diesel. Research on solid biomass ignition properties has been considerably developed because of the amount of industrial accidents related to the treatment and use of solid biomass (self-ignition, dust explosions, etc.). On the other hand, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) is becoming and important characterization technique as it can be used to determine a wide spectrum of properties, such as kinetics, composition, proximate analysis, etc. This research aims to combine thermal analysis and ignition properties, by using the TGA to obtain the elemental composition of lignocellulosic biomass and compare those results to Minimum Ignition Energy (MIE) values test output, so a relation between composition and MIE can be found.To achieve this aim, biomass samples from different origins have been used: oil palm wastes (empty fruit bunches, mesocarp fiber and palm kernel shell), agricultural wastes (straw chops) and forestry wastes (wood chips and wood powder). Also, raw materials and torrefied biomass were compared. The hemicellulose/cellulose ratio was calculated and compared to different flammability properties, finding out that the greater the ratio and the lower the onset temperature (temperature at which the pyrolysis reaction accelerates), the lower was the minimum ignition energy. From this basis it was possible to define “tendency areas” that grouped the samples whose MIE values were similar. Three tendency areas were found: high minimum ignition energy, medium minimum ignition energy, and low ignition energy.     

Inhibiting effect of inhibitors on ignition sensitivity of wood dust

Wood products are easy to produce dust in the production and processing process, and have a serious explosion risk. In order to improve the safety of wood products production, the inhibiting effects of magnesium hydroxide (MTH), SiO₂, melamine polyphosphate (MPP) on the minimum ignition energy (MIE) and minimum ignition temperature (MIT) of wood dust were experimentally studied. The results showed that the inhibiting effects of inhibitors on the MIE of wood dust show the order of MPP > SiO₂>MTH. The order of the inhibiting effects on the MIT of wood dust was MPP > MTH > SiO_2. When 10% MPP was added to wood dust, the time when the flame appears (T_appear) and the time when the flame reaches the top of the glass tube (T_top) obviously rose to 80, 140 ms. Therefore, MPP had the best inhibiting effect on the ignition sensitivity of wood dust.According to thermogravimetry (TG), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) tests, the introduction of MPP leaded to lower maximum mass loss rate (MMLR), higher temperature corresponding to mass loss of 90% (T_0.1), residual mass and heat absorption. In addition, thermogravimetric analysis/infrared spectrometry (TG-IR) results showed that MPP produced H₂O (g) and NH₃ (g) during the thermal decomposition process, which diluted the oxygen.     

戊唑醇粉尘最小点火能试验研究

采用1.2 L哈特曼管爆炸装置分别对粒径小于54μm、74μm、150μm及大于150μm的戊唑醇粉尘进行测试。针对戊唑醇粉尘浓度及粒径范围对其最小点火能的影响,分别进行单因素试验,并对其危险性进行分级。结果表明,保持粒径小于150μm,环境温度为20℃,喷粉压力为0.7 MPa,在质量浓度100~1 300 g/m~3之间,戊唑醇粉尘的最佳敏感质量浓度ρ_m为983.71 g/m~3,此时的最小点火能为404.74 mJ。保持戊唑醇粉尘质量浓度为900 g/m~3,环境温度为20℃,喷粉压力为0.7 MPa不变,粒径小于54μm、74μm、150μm及大于150μm的戊唑醇粉尘的最小点火能分别为10 mJ、100 mJ、400 mJ和1 000 mJ以上。因此,判定戊唑醇粉尘最小点火能属于M2级,为特别着火敏感性。     

湍流对粉尘云电火花点火过程的影响

随着现代工业的发展,粉尘爆炸事故发生的频率也逐年增加,因此,对粉尘云点火敏感程度进行测量和计算就变得十分重要。粉尘云最小点火能是粉尘爆炸重要的特性参数之一,是采取粉尘爆炸防护的基础。最小点火能在测量的过程中受到多个敏感条件的影响,其中湍流则是最复杂的影响因素之一。文中对实验过程中粉尘云的湍流进行了定义,并分析了湍流对粉尘云最小点火能影响的内在原因;同时对通过数值模拟计算粉尘云最小点火能过程中的湍流计算给出了数学模型。从实验和数学模型两个方向对湍流进行了全面描述,对粉尘云电火花点火过程中湍流影响的分析结论,可有效的指导实验。     

A theoretical model for the prediction of the minimum ignition energy of dust clouds

In this study, a physical model of the dust cloud ignition process is developed for both cylindrical coordinates with a straight-line shaped ignition source and spherical coordinates with a point shaped ignition source. Using this model, a numerical algorithm for the calculation of the minimum ignition energy (MIE) is established and validated. This algorithm can evaluate MIEs of dusts and their mixtures with different dust concentrations and particle sizes. Although the average calculated cylindrical MIE (MIE_cylindrical) of the studied dusts only amounts to 63.9% of the average experimental MIE value due to reasons including high idealization of the numerical model and possible energy losses in the experimental tests, the algorithm with cylindrical coordinates correctly predicts the experimental MIE variation trends against particle diameter and dust concentration. There is a power function relationship between the MIE and particle diameter of the type MIE ∝ d_p^k with k being approximately 2 for cylindrical coordinates and 3 for spherical coordinates. Moreover, as dust concentration increases MIE(conc) first drops because of the decreasing average distance between particles and, at fuel-lean concentrations the increasing dust cloud combustion heat; however, after the dust concentration rises beyond a certain value, MIE(conc) starts to increase as a result of the increasingly significant heat sink effect from the particles and, at fuel-rich concentrations the no longer increasing dust cloud combustion heat.