Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

Sand and dust storms: underrated natural hazards

Sand and dust storms (SDS) are wind erosion events typically associated with dryland regions, although they can occur in most environments and their impacts are frequently experienced outside drylands because desert dust haze often is transported great distances. SDS represent hazards to society in numerous ways, yet they do not feature prominently in the disasters literature. This paper considers SDS in a hazard context by examining their ramifications in economic, physical, and social terms, with a focus on agriculture, health, transport, utilities, households, and the commercial and manufacturing sector. There are few assessments of the economic consequences of SDS and those studies that have been conducted lack consistency in data collection methods and analysis. SDS do not result in the significant damage to infrastructure usually associated with many disasters, but the cumulative effects on society can be significant because SDS occur more commonly than most other types of natural hazard.     

Responses to natural and man-made hazards in Borno, Northeast Nigeria

This is a study of the responses of the people of eastern Borno to the twin hazards of drought and of an irrigation project stranded by the recent low level of Lake Chad. The environmental awareness of the people has been much influenced by access to information, particularly radio. There was a perceptual dissonance; drought is discerned as a natural act of God, but lake recession is seen as man-made. There is also a gap between responses perceived as appropriate and actual responses consequent on the constraints imposed by the process of modernization, notably the introduction of the South Chad Irrigation Project (SOP). Traditional response mechanisms involving the norm of reciprocity, the use of community resources, agricultural adaptations and sharing have become relatively insignificant in Borno. These are being replaced by emigration, lake floor cultivation and household diversification     

Analysis of hazardous material releases due to natural hazards in the United States

Natural hazards were the cause of approximately 16,600 hazardous material (hazmat) releases reported to the National Response Center (NRC) between 1990 and 2008-three per cent of all reported hazmat releases. Rain-induced releases were most numerous (26 per cent of the total), followed by those associated with hurricanes (20 per cent), many of which resulted from major episodes in 2005 and 2008. Winds, storms or other weather-related phenomena were responsible for another 25 per cent of hazmat releases. Large releases were most frequently due to major natural disasters. For instance, hurricane-induced releases of petroleum from storage tanks account for a large fraction of the total volume of petroleum released during 'natechs' (understood here as a natural hazard and the hazardous materials release that results). Among the most commonly released chemicals were nitrogen oxides, benzene, and polychlorinated biphenyls. Three deaths, 52 injuries, and the evacuation of at least 5,000 persons were recorded as a consequence of natech events. Overall, results suggest that the number of natechs increased over the study period (1990-2008) with potential for serious human and environmental impacts.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.     

长江三角洲地区人类生命体多自然灾害综合风险度评估

自然灾害综合风险评估是当前灾害研究领域的主要难点之一。以经济发达、灾害频繁的长三角地区为研究区,选取县级行政区域为基本分析单元,以人类生命体作为受灾对象,尝试进行了区域多灾种综合风险度分析。致灾因子方面选取地震、台风、洪水;选择性别比例、年龄结构、交通状况、通信设施和医疗状况等构建脆弱性评价指标,以人口密度作为承灾体暴露性指标。以历史上各致灾因子造成的年均死亡人数为权重依据,将各致灾因子进行加和得到多致灾因子的危险度指数;使用熵值法对脆弱性的各相关指标进行分析计算,得出脆弱性指数。将得到的多致灾因子危险度指数、承灾体脆弱性指数和暴露性指数合并,得出各县的人类生命多灾种综合风险度指数。结果表明:高风险度地区主要分布在上海市中心区域、台州市的南部。所得风险度指数反映了长三角区域内各县区人口受到多灾种综合影响的相对强度。     

The increasing exposure of cities to the effects of volcanic eruptions: a global survey

Abstract

The most dynamic demographic process of the past 250 years has been the movement of people from rural areas to cities. For most of this period urbanisation has been concentrated in economically more developed parts of the world, but during the last 50 years the focus has shifted to economically less developed regions. Urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, has led to increasing global exposure to a variety of natural hazards, not the least of which are risks posed to large cities by volcanoes. In this paper we monitor these demographic changes and detail the various types of volcanic hazard to which cities are exposed. A major eruption affecting a city in a developing country could cause widespread loss of life and regional disruption. Effective response, however, might minimise casualties in a city within a developed nation affected by a major eruption, but the economic impact could have global consequences. We argue that global hazard exposure is often subtle and involves not only the size of a city and the types of volcanic product that may occur, but also the strategic position of the threatened city within the economy of a country and/or region and the fact that volcano-induced tsunami and other consequences of eruptions, such as climatic change, may affect cities far removed from a given eruption site. Mitigation measures informed by both specifc prediction (surveillance) and general prediction (hazard mapping) are providing the potential to reduce hazard exposure. The paper concludes with a consideration of ongoing research, in particular the emphasis currently being placed on conflating hazard analysis with studies of place, economy, society and culture.     

Classification of residential areas according to physical vulnerability to natural hazards: a case study of Çanakkale,Turkey

The selection of new settlement areas and the construction of safe buildings, as well as rendering built‐up areas safe, are of great importance in mitigating the damage caused by natural disasters. Most cities in Turkey are unprepared for natural hazards. In this paper, Çanakkale, located in a first‐degree seismic zone and sprawled around the Sartçay Delta, is examined in terms of its physical vulnerability to natural hazards. Residential areas are analysed using GIS (geographic information system) and remote‐sensing technologies in relation to selected indicators. Residential areas of the city are divided into zones according to an evaluation of geological characteristics, the built‐up area's features, and urban infrastructure, and four risk zones are determined. The results of the analysis show that the areas of the city suitable for housing are very limited. In addition, the historical centre and the housing areas near Sartçay stream are shown to be most problematic in terms of natural disasters and sustainability.     

自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征及R/S分析

统计了公元960年到1979年我国地震、洪涝和台风风暴潮灾害发生的时间及死亡人数,以分形几何中的Cantor集合为模型,发现我国自然灾害发生时间序列的分布呈现出明显的分形特征,并采用Smalley方法分别计算了不同灾害发生时间序列分布的分维值,它们均在0.5左右,同严格意义上的数学分形Cantor集合相比分维较小,说明我国地震等自然灾害发生发展的自组织程度还有进一步发展的趋势,其危害程度将可能进一步提高;在自然灾害发生时间序列的分形特征的基础上,通过R/S分析,得出3种自然灾害发生时间序列的H指数均在0.28左右,同日斑指数、树木年轮、湖泊水位变化等自然现象相比较小,说明自然灾害的发生具有短程相关性,其发生规律没有日斑指数等自然现象明显.该研究对于进一步认识和研究我国地震等自然灾害的发生规律和发展趋势等具有一定意义.     

Public health aspects of volcanic hazards; Evaluation and prevention of excessive morbidity and mortality due to natural disasters

This is a summary of the proceedings of sessions on Volcanic Hazards at the First International Symposium on Public Health in Asia and the Pacific Basin, held 3–11th March 1983, in Honolulu, Hawaii. The Symposium was sponsored by the Association of Schools of Public Health, the U.S. Public Health Service and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), the South Pacific Commission, and the East–West Center of the University of Hawaii. The full proceedings are being prepared for publication. The Symposium was supported in part by: The Pan American Health Organization and The Amoco Foundation.     

中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向

中国是全球少数几个同时受台风风暴潮和温带风暴潮危害的国家之一,风暴潮灾一年四季,从面到北均可发生,本文基于中国沿海近５０年风暴潮灾时间变化和空间分布特点的分析,着重探讨了近５００年全国及长江、黄河、珠江三角洲的历史记录和近５０年实测风暴潮灾发生频次的变化及其与气候波动的关系,并对未来全球变化背景下,中国沿海风暴潮灾的变化趋向进行了讨论。结果表明：近５００年来,中国沿海的风暴潮灾的气温较高的偏暖时段     

Foundations of indigenous knowledge on disasters due to natural hazards: lessons from the outlook on floods among the Bayira of the Rwenzori region

The role of indigenous knowledge in increasing context specificity and exposing blind spots in scientific understanding is widely evidenced in disaster studies. This paper aims to structure the processes that shape indigenous knowledge production and its optimisation using the case of floods. An inductive analytical approach is applied among riparian indigenous communities (focus on the Bayira) of the Rwenzori region of Uganda where plenty of indigenous flood practices have been recorded. Indigenous knowledge of floods is found to be based on intimate comprehension of local hydrometeorological regularities. Insofar as these regularities follow natural dynamics, indigenous socio-epistemic processes are noted to be consistent with the laws of nature. Coupled with regular open sociocultural deliberations, the conceptualisation of hydrometeorological regularities induces an indigenous ontology and empiricist epistemology. This, together with the techniques used, is the driver of crucial epistemic virtues which enable indigenous knowledge to provide disaster solutions that are adapted, pragmatic, and holistic.     

The social impact of natural hazards: a multi‐level analysis of disasters and forms of trust in mainland China

This study aimed to assess the multi‐level effects of natural hazards on trust in Chinese society. Drawing on the Chinese General Social Survey conducted in 2012 and provincial disaster damage records, it examined the association between individuals’ past experiences of disasters and province‐level damage (measured by the number of affected people, deaths, and economic loss) and various forms of trust: in‐group; out‐group; generalised; and political. The findings indicate that Chinese individuals with experience of disasters have higher levels of out‐group trust but lower levels of political trust. Similarly, at the province level, damage owing to disasters over the past three years (2009–11) positively impacted on residents’ out‐group trust while negatively affecting their political trust. However, when provincial damage was aggregated for disasters over the past five years (2007–11), which included the devastating Sichuan earthquake on 12 May 2008, only total deaths had a positive effect on generalised trust.     

The application of geographic information systems and global positioning systems in humanitarian emergencies: lessons learned,programme implications and future research

Geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems and remote sensing have been increasingly used in public health settings since the 1990s, but application of these methods in humanitarian emergencies has been less documented. Recent areas of application of GIS methods in humanitarian emergencies include hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments; rapid assessment and survey methods; disease distribution and outbreak investigations; planning and implementation of health information systems; data and programme integration; and programme monitoring and evaluation. The main use of GIS in these areas is to provide maps for decision-making and advocacy, which allow overlaying types of information that may not normally be linked. GIS is also used to improve data collection in the field (for example, for rapid health assessments or mortality surveys). Development of GIS methods requires further research. Although GIS methods may save resources and reduce error, initial investment in equipment and capacity building may be substantial. Especially in humanitarian emergencies, equipment and methodologies must be practical and appropriate for field use. Add-on software to process GIS data needs to be developed and modified. As equipment becomes more user-friendly and costs decrease, GIS will become more of a routine tool for humanitarian aid organisations in humanitarian emergencies, and new and innovative uses will evolve.     

Mobility due to natural disaster: theoretical considerations and preliminary analyses

Relatively little of the work on natural disasters has focused on people who do not return to their pre-disaster homes. This study uses Annual Housing Survey data from 1974 through 1981 to examine moving households who attribute their moves to a natural disaster. The focus is on three issues: the characteristics of the movers and their recovery; a comparison with other involuntary movers (i.e., public and private displacees); and the amount of innovating or conserving behavior shown by different groups of movers and the impact of these behaviors on each group's recovery after the move. The paper compares disaster movers to all movers and to other forced movers. Distinct differences between the groups in their characteristics and housing recovery exist. The paper concludes with suggestions for continued analysis and policy implications.     

Australia's organized response to natural disaster: Background and theoretical analysis

An analysis of organizations involved in response to disaster within Australia is offered. The location of these key organizations within the existing institutional framework, and a discussion of the functions of each, together with the relationships between them is provided. Particular emphasis is placed on the location and role of the State and Territory Emergency Service organizations (S/TES's) within this organizational network. The paper suggests there are a number of constraints that operate upon the S/TES's which prejudice both the effectiveness of this organizational type and that of the entire organizational network. These constraints are analyzed in terms of power and influence variables. The outcome of this discussion is the development of a taxonomy of Australia's counter-disaster organizations that is based on: (1) the ability of individual organizations within the network to determine the role which it will perform; and (2) the potential of the organization to influence the direction of the network.