Modelling the long-term dynamics of radiocaesium in closed lakes

During the years after the Chernobyl accident the radioceasium activity concentration in most contaminated aquatic ecosystems decreased markedly. Lakes with no permanent inflows and outflows (closed lakes), however, still present a radioecological problem which is expected to continue for some time. In this paper, a mechanistic model for the long-term prediction of radiocaesium behaviour in closed lakes is developed. The model of Prokhorov (Radiokhimiya (Radiochemistry) 11 (1969) 317) was modified to describe the effects of bottom sediment bioturbation, surface runoff from the catchment and suspended solids formation and sedimentation. The model input parameters are the effective diffusion coefficient in bottom sediments, depth of the completely mixed layer, the distribution coefficient in the sediment-water system, the runoff coefficient, sedimentation rate, and deposition density. Values of all these parameters can be independently estimated or measured in a short-term experiment. Given negligible runoff and sedimentation, the dynamics of radiocaesium in lake water is described by a simple equation with only one unknown parameter. This allows us to make long-term predictions on the basis of a series of measurements carried out during the relatively short period. The model was tested against 137Cs activity concentrations measured between 1993 and 1999 in Svyatoe lake in the Bryansk region of Russia. Calculated and measured activity concentrations are in good agreement.     

Modelling the long-term behaviour of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in two Italian lakes

The present paper describes the application of a state-of-the-art model to two lakes in central Italy (Trasimeno and Monterosi) for the assessment of migration parameters of (137)Cs and (90)Sr (migration velocity to sediment, transfer rates from sediment to water and to bottom sediment). Applications of a compartment model and a model based on the diffusion equation to predict the behaviour of pollutants in water and through bottom sediment are presented and discussed. The application of the diffusion equation shows some difficulties of a general nature and typical of such a modelling approach. Moreover, there is no evidence of significant improvements of the model performances when the diffusion equation is applied. Very low levels of sedimentation rate of suspended matter in Lake Monterosi were evaluated by the quantitative assessment of radiocaesium migrating to bottom sediment. This suggests that, in this lake, the removal of radionuclide from the water column is mainly due to the turbulent mixing of bottom sediment causing radionuclide burial.     

Soil-to-plant transfer of radiocaesium for selected tropical plant species in Bangladesh

Soil-to-plant transfer factors (TF) of radiocaesium (137Cs) were determined under field condition for grassy vegetation grown in Bangladesh at contaminated land in the Atomic Energy Research Establishment (AERE) campus. TF values for rice, grass and grassy/root vegetations grown in the same type of soil were also measured under pot condition. TF values of 137Cs for grassy vegetation (2.4 x 10(-2) -4.2 x 10(-2) with an average of 3.1 x 10(-2) +/-0.005) obtained under field condition were slightly lower than the values for grass and grassy/root vegetations (2.9 x 10(-2) -6.6 x 10(-2) with an average of 4.8 x 10(-2) +/-0.01 for grass and grassy vegetations and 2.3 x 10(-2) -5.6 x 10(-2) with an average of 4.0 x 10(-2) +/-0.009 for root vegetations, respectively) obtained under pot condition. However, TF values (9.0 x 10(-3) -2.6 x 10(-2) with an average of 1.9 x 10(-2) +/-0.004) obtained for rice were about a factor of 4 lower than the values obtained for grass and grassy/root vegetations. When the properties of the AERE soils as input parameters were used in the soil-plant transfer model of Absalom, the estimated TF values (4.5 x 10(-2) -6.7 x 10(-2) with an average of 5.3 x 10(-2) +/-0.006) were consistent with the measured values obtained for grass and grassy vegetations under pot condition, however, the model overestimates the TF values for rice.     

Modelling the role of humic acid in radiocaesium distribution in a British upland peat soil

The significance of exchange sites on organic matter in the retention of radiocaesium in highly organic soils remains unclear. To quantify this retention, we measured the binding of 134Cs to a humic acid isolated from a British upland peat soil, under a range of chemical conditions. We interpreted our results using Humic Ion Binding Model V, a model of humic substance chemistry which simulates ion exchange by non-specific accumulation of cations adjacent to the humic molecules. Model V could simulate the humic acid-solution partitioning of Cs under all the solution conditions used. The model was used to estimate the contribution of organic matter to Cs sorption by the whole soil composite. An estimate of Cs sorption by illite frayed edge sites was also made. These simulations show that organic matter may play only a minor role in binding Cs. even in highly organic soils.     

Laboratory experiments to predict changes in radiocaesium root uptake after flooding events

Changes in soil solution composition after a flooding event were hypothesised to be one of the key factors in explaining changes in radiocaesium incorporation in the food chain in the areas affected by the Chernobyl accident. A laboratory methodology was set up to monitor changes in the soil solution composition after a sequence of flooding cycles. Experiments were performed using column and batch approaches on test soils with contrasting initial soil solution composition (high and low initial concentrations of K+). Results from column experiments indicated a potential increase in NH(4)(+) concentrations, a parameter which could lead to an increase in the radiocaesium root uptake. Batch results in the soil with high initial K+ concentration showed that after a number of flooding cycles, especially for high ratios of flooding solution/mass of soil, K+ concentration decreased sometimes below a threshold value (around 0.5-1 mmol l(-1)), a fact that could lead to an increase in radiocaesium transfer. For the soils with a low initial K+ concentration, the flooding solution increased K+ and NH(4)(+) values in the soil solution. The comparison of test soils with soils from Ukraine areas affected by flooding showed that the final stage in soil solution composition was similar in both cases, regardless of the initial composition of the soil solution. Moreover, the comparison with unflooded soils from the same area showed that potential changes in other soil parameters, such as (137)Cs activity concentration, clay content, and radiocaesium interception potential, RIP (a parameter that estimates the radiocaesium specific sorption capacity of a soil), should also be monitored for additional effects due to the flooding event. Therefore, the changes in the root uptake would depend on the resulting situation from changes in RIP, K+ and NH(4)(+) values in the soil solution.     

Does soil adhesion matter when predicting radiocaesium transfer to animals?

A sward will often have significant amounts of soil adhered to the vegetation surfaces which will be ingested by grazing animals. If the soil is contaminated by radioactive fallout then it can serve as a dietary source of radionuclides, in addition to any root uptake by the plants. This study is an attempt to quantitatively assess the importance of soil adhesion as a source of radiocaesium to sheep using the RUINS model which simulates radiocaesium transfer in grazing systems.The method of simulating the contamination of vegetation surfaces used by the RUINS model is described, and the importance of the availability of radiocaesium associated with adhered soil relative to plant incorporated radiocaesium discussed. Two sets of simulations are presented: one in which the soil is treated as a medium providing a uniform availability of radiocaesium, and the second in which account is taken of the partitioning of radiocaesium in the soil between ‘fixed’ and ‘labile’ phases.The results demonstrate that, because of the reduced absorption in the gut of radiocaesium associated with soil, animals grazing pastures with significant amounts of radiocaesium associated with adhered soil will not be as contaminated as radiocaesium activity concentrations measured in bulk vegetation samples would suggest. Therefore, the extent of soil adhesion needs to be considered if predictions of radiocaesium contamination of animal products are to be made on the basis of measured activities of sampled vegetation. However, soil adhesion is unlikely to be a significant dietary source of available radiocaesium, unless the soil concerned exhibits an unusually high bioavailability of radiocaesium. Moreover the simulation results indicate that differences in availability between soil types observed experimentally are consistent with the partitioning between fixed and labile soil compartments made by the RUINS model.     

Predicting the transfer of radiocaesium from organic soils to plants using soil characteristics

A model predicting plant uptake of radiocaesium based on soil characteristics is described. Three soil parameters required to determine radiocaesium bioavailability in soils are estimated in the model: the labile caesium distribution coefficient (kd1), K+ concentration in the soil solution [mK] and the soil solution-->plant radiocaesium concentration factor (CF, Bq kg-1 plant/Bq dm-3). These were determined as functions of soil clay content, exchangeable K+ status, pH, NH4+ concentration and organic matter content. The effect of time on radiocaesium fixation was described using a previously published double exponential equation, modified for the effect of soil organic matter as a non-fixing adsorbent. The model was parameterised using radiocaesium uptake data from two pot trials conducted separately using ryegrass (Lolium perenne) on mineral soils and bent grass (Agrostis capillaris) on organic soils. This resulted in a significant fit to the observed transfer factor (TF, Bq kg-1 plant/Bq kg-1 whole soil) (P < 0.001, n = 58) and soil solution K+ concentration (mK, mol dm-3) (P < 0.001, n = 58). Without further parameterisation the model was tested against independent radiocaesium uptake data for barley (n = 71) using a database of published and unpublished information covering contamination time periods of 1.2-10 years (transfer factors ranged from 0.001 to 0.1). The model accounted for 52% (n = 71, P < 0.001) of the observed variation in log transfer factor.     

The transfer of radiocaesium to ewes through a breeding cycle--an illustration of the pitfalls of the transfer coefficient

A study to measure the transfer of radiocaesium to adult female sheep through a breeding cycle is described. The transfer of radiocaesium from the diet to muscle (estimated as the equilibrium transfer coefficient) was significantly lower to pregnant, and especially lactating, animals compared to non-lactating and barren animals. High dry matter intake rates were also associated with significantly lower transfer coefficients. Known relationships between dry matter intake rates and protein turnover could credibly explain some of these differences. However, when described as the concentration ratio, radiocaesium transfer to meat was apparently highest during lactation. The apparent difference in results obtained by the two approaches of determining transfer is the consequence of daily dry matter intake being a denominator within the estimation of transfer coefficient. A wider discussion of transfer coefficients and concentration ratios leads us to suggest that the concentration ratio is the more robust and potentially generic parameter.     

Chernobyl radioactivity persists in reindeer

Transfer of 137Cs in the soil-plant/lichen-reindeer food chain was studied in central (?stre Namdal) and southern Norway (V?g?) during 2000-2003. Reindeer from these areas have been continuously subjected to countermeasure application since the 1986 Chernobyl accident. In both areas no decline in 137Cs concentrations was detectable in reindeer slaughtered in autumn since 1995, or in reindeer slaughtered in winter since 1998-1999. Seasonal differences in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer have been less pronounced in recent years, with 137Cs concentrations occasionally higher in autumn than in winter. Soil-to-plant 137Cs transfer was significantly higher in ?stre Namdal than in V?g?. Climatic influences on lichen growth and abundance, and on soil properties that influence the availability of 137Cs for plant uptake, are hypothesized to have a larger impact on long-term transfer of radiocaesium in the soil-plant/lichen-reindeer food chain than has been previously observed.     

Variation in transfer factor of radiocaesium in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) in clear cut and mature forest sites after the Chernobyl accident

Bank voles that were collected between 1986 and 2004 at sites in Chernobyl fallout areas of northern Sweden showed higher (137)Cs activity concentrations at the mature forest sites compared to clear cuts. This difference was not attributed to differences in ground deposition between sites but to differences in aggregated transfer rates to voles. Differences in transfer between forest types were evident for all years 1986-2004 but the change occurred at different rates in the two habitats. The apparent transfer factor between bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) and voles was positively related and indicated that a biomagnification was about 1.5 from vegetation to these small mammalian herbivores. The aggregated transfer factor to bank voles measured in the forest habitat, although starting at higher levels declined faster with time than clear cut sites and the differences between the forest habitat and the clear cut areas diminished with time. After the Chernobyl accident in 1986 the mean level in bank vole was 514Bq/kg fresh mass (SD=505) that increased to 1485Bq/kg (SD=881) in 1988. The activity concentration declined thereafter. The bank voles collected in similar habitats in 2004 contained on average 1022Bq/kg (SD=723). Still 18 years after the radionuclide fallout over Sweden high activity concentrations in voles could be found.     

The partitioning of sellafield-derived radiocaesium in scottish coastal sediments

Sequential leaching of Clyde Sea Area and Loch Etive sediments suggests that partitioning of Sellafield (formerly Windscale)-derived ¹³⁷Cs is related, to a larger than expected extent, to the concentration of sedimentary oxides, organics and, less importantly, carbonates. These components act to prevent ¹³⁷Cs release from clay mineral exchange sites. Leaching of wet sediments appears to provide quite different and presumably more realistic information on nuclide associations relative to that produced by leaching dry ground sediments. The latter ¹³⁷Cs partitioning data appear to overestimate the degree of ¹³⁷Cs fixation in these coastal deposits. Because of the observed partial association of ¹³⁷Cs with nonclay constituents, diagenetic remobilisation of the nuclide is in theory feasible and a preliminary study suggests its occurrence to a minor degree.     

选择性转移、转移成本与中国城乡收入差距变动

本文通过构建由城镇正规、非正规与农村农业部门组成的农村劳动力择优向城镇转移情形下的三部门经济生产和分配模型,对我国20世纪90年代初期以来存在极强选择性和具有高昂转移成本下的城乡劳动力转移对我国城乡收入差距可能产生的影响进行了理论分析,并根据模型对影响进行了数值模拟实验。研究结果表明,农村劳动力的择优转移和转移成本会内生性地引致我国城乡收入差距的扩大。究其原因,主要在于农村中相对优质的劳动力进入到城镇就业,在给城镇居民带来更多回报率较高投资机会的同时,而农业则由于优质人力资本的流出而大大延滞了其发展速度,这种"一促一抑"、"一荣一损"的内在机制势必引致城乡收入差距的扩大,同时转移成本的存在会放大收入差距扩大的程度。进一步地,通过把劳动力选择性转移与随机转移和劣者淘汰不同情形下我国可能出现的城乡收入差距进行对比的反事实分析表明,20世纪90年代初期以来在我国农村大量劳动力不断向城镇转移就业的过程中,劳动力很强择优转移的特性在城乡收入差距进一步扩大中贡献了约1/3的份额,而往返流动的转移成本在城乡收入差距扩大中产生了大约1.2倍的乘数效应,这是本研究得到的两个重要量化结果。为了缩小我国城乡收入差距,文章建议要为农民工市民化创造便利条件,为城乡间资本要素自由流动提供便利渠道,需要将城镇化建设与新农村建设很好地结合,特别是要最大限度地释放农村经济社会发展的自身活力以让农村能人能够在当地更好地施展才干。     

The In vivo measurement of radiocaesium activity in lambs

Contamination of certain areas of the UK with radiocaesium from the Chernobyl accident led to restrictions being placed on the movement of lambs in these areas. To determine whether part of an area met the criteria for derestriction required the laboratory monitoring of meat from lambs sacrificed for the purpose. This was a slow process because there was no means of knowing which parts of an area had the lowest activity levels in lambs, that is where the chances of removing restrictions were the greatest. A rapid, simple and cheap method for the in vivo monitoring of caesium activity in lambs was developed. Correlation between the results from this method and in-laboratory measurements was reasonable (R² from 83% to 95%). The method was used successfully to monitor lambs in Cumbria and north Wales during July and August 1986.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

Estimation of critical loads for radiocaesium in Fennoscandia and Northwest Russia

The application of the critical loads methodology for radioactive contamination of Arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems, where natural and semi-natural food products are important components of the diet of many people, is proposed and discussed. The critical load is herein defined as the amount of radionuclide deposition necessary to produce radionuclide activity concentrations in food products exceeding intervention limits. The high transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer meat gives this product the lowest critical load, even though the intervention limit is relatively high compared with other products. Ecological half-lives of radiocaesium in natural and semi-natural products are often very long, and it is therefore important to take account of contamination already present in the event of an accident affecting areas where such products are important. In particular, the long ecological half-life for radiocaesium in moose meat means that the critical load is highly sensitive to prior deposition. An example of the potential application of the method for emergency preparedness is given for the Chernobyl accident.     

Evaluating and reducing a model of radiocaesium soil-plant uptake

An existing model of radiocaesium transfer to grasses was extended to include wheat and barley and parameterised using data from a wide range of soils and contact times. The model structure was revised and evaluated using a subset of the available data which was not used for model parameterisation. The resulting model was then used as a basis for systematic model reduction to test the utility of the model components. This analysis suggested that the use of 4 model variables (relating to radiocaesium adsorption on organic matter and the pH sensitivity of soil solution potassium concentration) and 1 model input (pH) are not required. The results of this analysis were used to develop a reduced model which was further evaluated in terms of comparisons to observations. The reduced model had an improved empirical performance and fewer adjustable parameters and soil characteristic inputs.     

Possible role of organic matter in radiocaesium adsorption in soils

The aim of this review is to examine the hypothesis that organic matter decreases the adsorption of radiocaesium on clay minerals. The factors that determine radiocaesium mobility and bioavailability in soil are briefly outlined to show why a relationship between soil organic matter content and enhanced Cs bioavailability is paradoxical. In all the investigations reviewed the ionic compositions of both the solid and the solution phases have been strictly controlled. We show that the addition of organic matter to reference clay minerals causes decreases of up to an order of magnitude in the distribution coefficient of radiocaesium. Similarly, the chemical removal of organic matter from the clay-sized fraction of soil usually leads to an increase in Cs adsorption. We suggest that the nature of the organic matter and its interaction with mineral surfaces are as important as the amount present.     

Modelling of long-term behaviour of caesium and strontium radionuclides in the Arctic environment and human exposure

In this paper a compartment model of the highly vulnerable Arctic terrestrial food chain "lichen-reindeer-man" is outlined. Based upon an analysis of measured (137)Cs and (90)Sr contents in lichen and reindeer meat from 1961 up to 2001, site specific model parameters for two regions in north-western Arctic Russia and for Kautokeino municipality in Arctic Norway have been determined. The dynamics of radionuclide activity concentrations in the "lichen-reindeer-man" food chain for all areas was satisfactorily described by a double exponential function with short-term and long-term effective ecological half-lives between 1-2 and 10-12 years, respectively, for both (137)Cs and (90)Sr. Using parameter values derived from the model, life-time internal effective doses due to consumption of reindeer meat by reindeer-breeders after an assumed single pulse deposit of 1 kBq m(-2) of (137)Cs were estimated to be 11.4 mSv (Kola Peninsula), 5 mSv (Nenets Autonomous Area), and 2 mSv (Kautokeino, Norway). Differences in vulnerability to radiocaesium deposition were due to differences in transfer between lichen and reindeer and in diet between the three regions.     

Uptake and elimination of radiocaesium in fish and the "size effect."

A number of hypotheses have previously been developed concerning the rates of uptake and elimination of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish. These include the influence of potassium and other water chemical parameters on both uptake and elimination, and the effect of fish size on accumulation. In order to test these hypotheses, we have assembled a data set comprising more than 1,000 measurements of radiocaesium (137Cs) in predatory fish (perch, pike and brown trout) in nine European lakes during the years after Chernobyl. These data have been analysed using simple models for uptake and excretion of 137Cs in fish, showing that: 1. Fish-water concentration factors (CF) were inversely proportional to potassium [K+] concentration of the different lakes, in agreement with previous studies. 2. The uptake rate of 137Cs in fish was negatively correlated with lake [K+], but excretion rate was independent of [K+]. 3. Lower than expected CF values were found in one lake, Iso Valkj?rvi, Finland. This is attributed to inhibition of the K+ (and therefore 137Cs) high affinity transport system in aquatic plants and fish by low pH and/or low Ca2+. 4. The inclusion of fish weight as a parameter in our dynamic model significantly improves the ability of the model to fit the observed measurements of 137Cs. 5. The model developed from the above hypotheses was able to fit the data from nine different lakes to within approximately a factor of 3 of the observed values.