Social and economic sustainability of urban systems: comparative analysis of metropolitan statistical areas in Ohio,USA

The development of a comprehensive sustainability analysis tool for evaluating regional urban systems would present researchers, planners, and policy makers with a powerful tool to study and manage systems, with the goal of encouraging optimum social and economic trends, while maintaining long-term environmental protection that leads to sustainability. This article intends to aid in this effort by presenting a versatile methodology for assessing sustainability as a function of dynamic changes in significant characteristics of urban systems. Using statistical methods, this work presents a strategy for comparatively assessing the impact of social and economic characteristics on system stability at geographic scales which are critical to policy and management. Specifically, it employs the Fisher Information index as a measure of sustainability, in order to distinguish periods of stability. As an application of the approach, six Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Ohio (Cincinnati, Dayton, Cleveland, Akron, Columbus, and Toledo) were evaluated for a regional sustainability assessment. Results from the multiyear analysis suggest two distinct periods in these MSAs: one characterized by 30 years of socio-economic growth (1970–1999) and another (2000–2009) denoting a change in the trajectory of each system found to be related to economic recession. Columbus was identified as the most stable and sustainable of the MSAs during the study period. In contrast, Toledo exhibited the largest changes in economic trends, as distinguished by excessive increases in the growth rate of vacant housing units, unemployed civilian labor force, and inhabitants below the poverty level (2000–2009). Since such conditions are not desirable for urban systems, they are indicative of movement towards an unsustainable future.     

Forest land conversion dynamics: a case of Pakistan

The present research focuses on estimating forest area change with respect to the ongoing forest land conversion. The study tests the hypothesis that forest land is being converted to the selected land use categories with high growth tendency and controlling deforestation rate to its half of the present level would significantly improve the land cover under forest. The rate of forest land conversion to other land use categories is analyzed and then compared with the total area expanded under three land use classes. We used Systems dynamic modeling approach to estimate forest area by simulating forest land conversion in Pakistan, projecting to 2030. The results show that rangeland, built-up area and cultivated land have increased over time; growth rate of built-up area (9%) is highest followed by rangeland area (1.7%) and cultivated area (0.3%), respectively; rangeland is the dominant category in terms of area expanded (0.74 m. ha). Sensitivity analysis showed that reducing deforestation rate to half of the past level of 1% could not significantly improve forest area; therefore, it is suggested that controlling deforestation alone is not an effective strategy unless drastic measures, e.g., demarcation of forest boundaries, land use control policy and afforestation campaign would be started in the country.     

Green energy clusters and socio-technical transitions: analysis of a sustainable energy cluster for regional economic development in Central Massachusetts,USA

As the societal benefits associated with transitioning to more sustainable, less fossil fuel-reliant energy systems are increasingly recognized by communities throughout the world, the potential of creating ‘green jobs’ within a ‘green economy’ is attracting much attention. Green energy clusters are increasingly promoted throughout the world as a strategy to simultaneously promote economic vitality and stimulate a sustainable energy transition. In spite of their emerging role in regional-scale sustainability planning efforts, such initiatives have not been considered within the sustainability transitions literature. This paper explores the development of one such regional sustainable energy cluster initiative in Central Massachusetts in Northeastern USA to consider the potential for such cluster initiatives to contribute to socio-technical transition in the energy system. Since 2008, a diverse set of stakeholders in Central Massachusetts, including politicians, universities, businesses, local citizens, and activists, have been working toward facilitating the emergence of an integrated cluster of activity focused on sustainable energy. Through interviews with key actors, participant observation, and document review, this research assesses the potential of this cluster initiative to contribute to a regional socio-technical transition. The empirical details of this case demonstrate that sustainable energy cluster initiatives can potentially accelerate change in entrenched energy regimes by promoting institutional thickness, generating regional ‘buzz’ around sustainable energy activities, and building trust between multiple and diverse stakeholders in the region. This research also contributes to emerging efforts to better ground socio-technical transitions in geographic space.     

Resilience and collapse of artisanal fisheries: a system dynamics analysis of a shellfish fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Analyzing different pathways by which social–ecological systems can loose resilience and enter trajectories of collapse constitutes an important aspect of our quest towards understanding resource sustainability. This paper’s goal was to better understand the effect of a particular class of disturbance—the accumulative effects of routine stressors—in the context of marine social–ecological systems. To that effect, we built a system dynamics model using empirically collected institutional and biological field data of an artisanal fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Among our findings, we identified different scenarios under which even very small endogenous changes in the relationship between ecological and institutional variables can send a seemingly resilient system into a trajectory of collapse. We discuss why these types of disturbances are so difficult to prevent and be identified by the users of the resource, as well as potential strategies to address these challenges.     

Social representations of socioenvironmental dynamics in extractive ecosystems and conservation practices with sustainable development: a bibliometric analysis

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Social representations necessarily originate from the interaction between individuals and groups in a social setting through communication and shared...     

Co-evolution of wetland landscapes,flooding, and human settlement in the Mississippi River Delta Plain

River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).     

Sediment budgets and source determinations using fallout Cesium-137 in a semiarid rangeland watershed,Arizona, USA

Analysis of soil redistribution and sediment sources in semiarid and arid watersheds provides information for implementing management practices to improve rangeland conditions and reduce sediment loads to streams. The purpose of this research was to develop sediment budgets and identify potential sediment sources using ¹³⁷Cs and other soil properties in a series of small semiarid subwatersheds on the USDA ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed near Tombstone, Arizona, USA. Soils were sampled in a grid pattern on two small subwatersheds and along transects associated with soils and geomorphology on six larger subwatersheds. Soil samples were analyzed for ¹³⁷Cs and selected physical and chemical properties (i.e., bulk density, rocks, particle size, soil organic carbon). Suspended sediment samples collected at measuring flume sites on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed were also analyzed for these properties. Soil redistribution measured using ¹³⁷Cs inventories for a small shrub-dominated subwatershed and a small grass-dominated subwatershed found eroding areas in these subwatersheds were losing −5.6 and −3.2 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively; however, a sediment budget for each of these subwatersheds, including depositional areas, found net soil loss to be −4.3 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ from the shrub-dominated subwatershed and −0.1 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ from the grass-dominated subwatershed. Generally, the suspended sediment collected at the flumes of the six other subwatersheds was enriched in silt and clay. Using a mixing model to determine sediment source indicated that shrub-dominated subwatersheds were contributing most of the suspended sediment that was measured at the outlet flume of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. The two methodologies (sediment budgets and sediment source analyses) indicate that shrub-dominated systems provide more suspended sediment to the stream systems. The sediment budget studies also suggest that sediment yields measured at the outlet of a watershed may be a poor indicator of actual soil redistribution rates within these semiarid watersheds. Management of these semiarid rangelands must consider techniques that will protect grass-dominated areas from shrub invasion to improve rangeland conditions.     

Towards deliberative coastal governance: insights from South Africa and the Mississippi Delta

Coastal sustainability is elusive in South Africa and the Mississippi delta. These case studies and convergent literatures demonstrate the merits of reconceptualising coastal management as a transformative practice of deliberative governance. A normative framework is presented that focuses attention on underpinning deliberative outcomes to enable governance actors and networks to build cognitive, democratic, sociopolitical and institutional capacity to transform unsustainable and maladaptive coastal practices. But operationalising such intentions is complex and contested and requires a volte-face in thinking and practice. The South African and Mississippi delta experiences provide insights about how to develop a deliberative praxis of coastal governance based on consideration of the choice of process, timeliness, quality of process, equity and representation, connections to the policy cycle, impact, implementation and institutionalisation.     

Energy and exergy analysis of solar hybrid adsorption refrigeration system

In this paper, performance of a solar hybrid adsorption refrigeration (AR) system is investigated experimentally. Such a system was built and tested under the conditions at National Institute of Technology Calicut, Kerala, India. The hybrid system has been designed for heating 50 l of water from 25 to 90°C as well as cooling 10 l of water from 25 to 10°C. The experimental results demonstrate that the refrigerator has a cooling capacity of 47–78 W with a cycle coefficient of performance (COP) of 0.19 and maximum possible COP of 0.45. In exergy analysis of the system, the irreversibility and exergetic efficiency of each component of the system have been calculated. The exergy analysis reveals that the main source of irreversibility is the adsorbent bed of the AR system, emphasising that the input heat energy is not utilised efficiently due to material constraints. The exergetic efficiencies of condenser, expansion device, evaporator and adsorbent bed are found as 42.3%, 79.8%, 54.7% and 11%, respectively.     

Towards a framework for cross-scale and multi-level analysis of coastal and marine social-ecological systems dynamics

As the Anthropocene proceeds, regional and local sustainability problems are ever more likely to originate at multiple levels of the earth system. The rate of global environmental change is now vastly outpacing our policy response, and social-ecological systems analysis needs to support global environmental governance. To respond to this challenge, this paper initiates the development of a coastal social-ecological typology and applies it in an exemplary fashion to nine coastal and marine case studies. We use an explicit distinction between the definitions of scale and level and a problem or issue-specific approach to the delineation of social-ecological units. A current major challenge to social-ecological systems analysis is the identification of the cross-level and cross-scale interactions and links which play key roles in shaping coastal and marine social-ecological dynamics and outcomes. We show that the regional level is the best point of departure to generate sustainability-oriented cross-scale and multi-level analyses and offers the outline of a typology in which different disciplinary and other forms of knowledge can be integrated as both part of regionally grounded analysis and action which engages with global sustainability challenges.     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.     

Climate change,extreme events and increased risk of salmonellosis in Maryland,USA: Evidence for coastal vulnerability

BackgroundSalmonella is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Patterns of salmonellosis have been linked to weather events. However, there is a dearth of data regarding the association between extreme events and risk of salmonellosis, and how this risk may disproportionately impact coastal communities.MethodsWe obtained Salmonella case data from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (2002–2012), and weather data from the National Climatic Data Center (1960–2012). We developed exposure metrics related to extreme temperature and precipitation events using a 30 year baseline (1960–1989) and linked them with county-level salmonellosis data. Data were analyzed using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations.ResultsWe observed a 4.1% increase in salmonellosis risk associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme temperature events (incidence rate ratio (IRR):1.041; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.013–1.069). This increase in risk was more pronounced in coastal versus non-coastal areas (5.1% vs 1.5%). Likewise, we observed a 5.6% increase in salmonellosis risk (IRR:1.056; CI:1.035–1.078) associated with a 1 unit increase in extreme precipitation events, with the impact disproportionately felt in coastal areas (7.1% vs 3.6%).ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this is the first empirical evidence showing that extreme temperature/precipitation events—that are expected to be more frequent and intense in coming decades—are disproportionately impacting coastal communities with regard to salmonellosis. Adaptation strategies need to account for this differential burden, particularly in light of ever increasing coastal populations.     

Proximate causes of deforestation in the Bolivian lowlands: an analysis of spatial dynamics

Forests in lowland Bolivia suffer from severe deforestation caused by different types of agents and land use activities. We identify three major proximate causes of deforestation. The largest share of deforestation is attributable to the expansion of mechanized agriculture, followed by cattle ranching and small-scale agriculture. We utilize a spatially explicit multinomial logit model to analyze the determinants of each of these proximate causes of deforestation between 1992 and 2004. We substantiate the quantitative insights with a qualitative analysis of historical processes that have shaped land use patterns in the Bolivian lowlands to date. Our results suggest that the expansion of mechanized agriculture occurs mainly in response to good access to export markets, fertile soil, and intermediate rainfall conditions. Increases in small-scale agriculture are mainly associated with a humid climate, fertile soil, and proximity to local markets. Forest conversion into pastures for cattle ranching occurs mostly irrespective of environmental determinants and can mainly be explained by access to local markets. Land use restrictions, such as protected areas, seem to prevent the expansion of mechanized agriculture but have little impact on the expansion of small-scale agriculture and cattle ranching. The analysis of future deforestation trends reveals possible hotspots of future expansion for each proximate cause and specifically highlights the possible opening of new frontiers for deforestation due to mechanized agriculture. Whereas the quantitative analysis effectively elucidates the spatial patterns of recent agricultural expansion, the interpretation of long-term historic drivers reveals that the timing and quantity of forest conversion are often triggered by political interventions and historical legacies.     

Effect of water pH and total dissolved solids on the species diversity of pelagic zooplankton in lakes: A statistical analysis

Statistical analysis of the combined influence of lake surface area (S), water pH, and total dissolved solids (TDS) on the formation of zooplankton communities in lakes has been made on the basis of available data on the number of species (N _sp ) of pelagic zooplankton in 256 lakes of the temperate zone of Europe, Asia, and North America. Graphic analysis and analysis of variance have shown that extremely high or extremely low values of pH and TDS inhibit lake zooplankton. If the value of one of these factors is extremely high, any increase in the other factor is favorable for the inhibited zooplankton, and this second factor determines the value of N _sp .     

Multiscale system dynamics of humans and nature in The Bahamas: perturbation, knowledge, panarchy and resilience

The analysis of the dynamic interactions between social systems, integrated by governance and communication, and biophysical systems, connected by material and energy flows, remains a challenge. In this paper, we draw on the heuristic models of the “adaptive renewal cycle” and “panarchy” [Gunderson and Holling (eds) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington, 2002], which are embedded in the theory of complex adaptive systems. Taking island development research in The Bahamas as a case study, we investigate environmental stressors, knowledge and social response in the context of three distinct social–ecological subsystems: (1) the interaction between tropical storms/hurricanes and the social system of disaster preparedness/management; (2) coastal ecosystem degradation coupled with land development; and (3) the fishery, in which we also consider the impact of a recent biological invasion, the Indo-Pacific red lionfish. The findings demonstrate the complexity of panarchical relations and the crucial role of diverse and uncertain knowledge systems and underlying mental models of risk and environment for resilience and sustainability. These are acquired at different scales and form key variables of change. This also applies to processes of communication. Bringing together the various constantly evolving multi-level knowledge systems for effective communication and decision-making remains a major challenge.     

Determination of the sources of toxic elements in environmental particles using microscopic and statistical analysis techniques

Samples of urban dust were physically fractionated into subsamples having unique size, density, ferromagnetism, and elemental compositional characteristics. The high density fractions containing the majority of each of the potentially toxic metals (Pb, Cd, Zn, Cr, Co, Mn) were subjected to X-ray microanalysis and to bulk analysis using instrumental neutron activation. Microanalysis was used to classify individual particles with respect to primary sources. The bulk analytical results were subjected to factor analysis to delineate the underlying factors (particle sources) responsible for the compositional variation in the subsamples. The advantages of the combined use of microanalytical and statistical techniques for source definition are described. X-ray microanalysis is used to substantiate the attribution of a given factor to a suspected particle source, to aid in the determination of the number of factors (sources) present, and to assess the extent to which a given factor represents a unique source of particles. Bulk analysis/factor analysis promotes the most effective use of X-ray microanalysis to characterize major particle types, and provides data on some toxic trace metals (e.g., Cd) that are not detectable using X-ray microanalysis. Target transformation factor analysis also is more useful in the quantitative determination of the relative mass contributions of major sources to the total dust sample.     

Investigating the current status of geospatial data and urban growth indicators in Jordan and Irbid municipality: implications for urban and environmental planning

The increasing levels of urbanization with intensive use of resources became a common problem across all countries. Jordan is a country with limited resources that require periodic assessment and frequent monitoring. The geospatial data, maps and urban growth indicators are fundamental requirements to monitor and evaluate cities expansion, development and resources use. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the availability and accessibility of geospatial data needed for city’s urban planning research and calculate recent urban growth indicators for Greater Irbid Municipality (GIM). All National governmental institutions were visited and surveyed. Landsat-8 images, geographic information system, classification workflow in ENVI-5 and statistical methods were used to assess selected urban growth indicators for GIM. The results showed that only one-fourth of Jordan national authorities use spatial data for urban planning. Researchers are expected to face complexities in identifying the available national geospatial data, accessing and acquisition of the available data with sufficient accuracy and comprehensiveness. The GIM showed lack of certain geospatial data (land use categories, population and built-up densities). These data were calculated, and results showed that the green, urban, open space densities for the year 2015 were 49, 25 and 26%, respectively. The population and built-up densities relative to the urban area was 7879 capita/km² and 20%, respectively. Therefore, the GIM is a dense city and its land use categories need to be monitored. Funds are needed to develop complete, comprehensive and accurate national geodata infrastructure that are governed with policies and regulations to facilitate researchers’ mission to support sustainability.