The impact analysis of policy events on China’s carbon market

ABSTRACT

This paper interrogates the impact of policy events on the efficiency of carbon market in China. The analysis covers five piloting emission trading schemes (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen and Hubei), particularly focusing on Guangdong pilot for its weak form efficiency and the richness of policy events. Twenty-five policy events between 2014 and 2016 are categorized into seven groups. The efficiency test indicates that only Guangdong ETS has reached weak form efficiency. After exploring the policy events occurred in Guangdong ETS, it finds that although a clear long-term climate policy has been set up over the country, China’s carbon market still has a conservative risk appetite and its governing institutions still needs further development. The policy makers need to be aware of and avoid the negative impacts of policy events to the market evolvement, by introducing effective consultancy process with the stakeholders and nurturing market expectations in the long run. We also find that events like allowance auctions have considerably less impacts than previously expected and argue that auction approach should be considered a preferable option over a free allocation system in the future policy design.     

Reduction of Tobacco Smoking Health Risk Through an Appropriate Media Based Communication Strategy in Uganda

Abstract

The health impacts of tobacco consumption are well documented and have gained acceptance worldwide. Today, a substantial, preventable burden of tobacco attributable diseases exists in most countries, though in most of the cases, unknown. Smoking accounts for almost half of the deaths in middle age in some regions. In Uganda, translating findings into policy action is slow and involves several stakeholders. It will continue to require support from tobacco control campaign groups. This paper analyses secondary literature on tobacco smoking and later provides an appropriate medium based communication strategy that can be adopted to counteract the persuasive smoking evil adverts of tobacco companies as well as creating awareness among the population of the health impacts caused by smoking.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Media Use and Public Perceptions of Global Warming in India

Media plays a vital role in informing the public about environmental threats. Although climate change is a global problem, developing countries such as India are often more vulnerable to the impacts due to poverty, illiteracy, and low public awareness. Using data from a nationally representative survey in India, this paper explores the relationships between media use, issue attention, and trust in informational sources on one hand and science-based climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support on the other. Results suggest that the Indian media, through consistent and accurate coverage of global warming using trusted sources, can play a positive role in increasing public engagement among a largely unaware population. Implications for climate change communication in India are discussed.     

A mapping of global warming research based on IPCC AR4

It is easy to get lost in the vast amount of knowledge that is currently produced. In this study, to get a comprehensive picture of current scientific knowledge about global warming issues, we developed a mapping framework for global warming research based on the relationships between nature and human society. The mapping includes seven phases: (1) socioeconomic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, (2) carbon cycle and carbon concentration, (3) climate change and global warming, (4) impacts on ecosystems and human society, (5) adaptation, (6) mitigation, and (7) social systems. We applied the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to the mapping. The quantity of research results and their reliability were analyzed on the basis of expert judgment to better understand the extent to which current scientific knowledge provides answers to society’s major concerns. The quantity and reliability of answers have increased in phases 2 and 3 relative to research in the Third Assessment Report. Although a large quantity of results have been produced in phases 4 and 6, they are not always sufficient. More studies are required in phases 1, 5, and 7, and the reliability of existing knowledge needs to be improved in these phases. Mapping global warming issues enabled us to visually comprehend the numerous and varied parts of global warming research as a whole and to discern gaps in knowledge and other research shortfalls. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

How far are biodiversity loss and climate change similar as policy issues?

Climate change and biodiversity loss have a central position in policy debate about global environmental change; however, of the two, climate change has a higher profile. This paper explores the similarities and difference between the two issues. Climate change is better defined and better understood as a policy issue, it is underpinned by a strong scientific consensus and practical units of measurement (CO₂ and financial impacts), and mitigation involves a key economic sector in energy. Biodiversity loss is less easily understood, more diffuse and less tangible, and policy responses do not engage major economic sectors. We argue that these differences contribute to the higher public and policy profile of climate change and can inform attempts to enhance responses to the problem of biodiversity loss.     

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

Abstract

To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate changes and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. Therefore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.     

New rig on the block: spatial policy discourse and the new suburban geography of energy production on Colorado's Front Range

ABSTRACT

Drawing from the Critical Discourse Analysis and Cultural Sociology of Space frameworks, this empirical analysis explores the discursive struggle between stakeholders of divergent viewpoints as they respond to the newfound spatial proximity of oil and gas extraction to homes and schools in suburban residential areas on Colorado's northern Front Range. Through an analysis of media, policy-making, and neighborhood meeting discourse, this study examines the social construction of space through policy narratives and regional debates about the American West's relationship to extractive industries. Results reveal that the discursive struggle over suburban drilling hinges upon the question of whether industrial activities belong in residential areas and is carried out through competing policy narratives that invoke differing (spatial versus aspatial) policy solutions. The deliberative quality of these policy narratives is constrained by existing spatial policy practices and further constrains democratic engagement.     

Mobilizing Artists: Green Patriot Posters,Visual Metaphors,and Climate Change Activism

This essay examines the Canary Project's Green Patriot Posters campaign as activist art that collectively comments on the cultural coherence of our current relations to the environment, particularly in terms of global warming, sustainability, and the concept of linear economic growth. Aspiring to bring together artists under the eco-activist umbrella, the Canary Project relies on an old WWII-inspired frame with a narrow premise of that period's conservation efforts. Within this framework, a range of visual designs question, subvert, and promote continued economic growth and an ontology that “more” equals “better.” An analysis of the up–down orientational metaphors underscores a typology of these valuations and reveals one way to assess implications of such artistic efforts. That is, artistic expressions adapt and play with the contingent nature of metaphors, offering elaborations, extensions, and alternatives on basic structural elements and, hence, remark on how we orient ourselves and productively imagine being of/in the world anew.     

Sources and pathways of Sr in the North Atlantic–Arctic region: present day and global warming

The spatial and temporal distributions of the anthropogenic radionuclides ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr, originating from nuclear bomb testing, the Sellafield reprocessing plant in the Irish Sea (UK), and from the Ob and Yenisey river discharges to the Arctic Ocean, have been simulated using the global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM). The physical model is forced with daily atmospheric re-analysis fields for the period of 1948–1999. Comparison of the temporal evolution of the observed and the simulated concentrations of ⁹⁰Sr has been performed in the Kara Sea. The relative contributions of the different sources on the temporal and spatial distributions of the surface ⁹⁰Sr are quantified over the simulated period. It follows that the Ob river discharge dominated the surface ⁹⁰Sr over most of the Arctic Ocean and along the eastern and western coasts of Greenland before 1960. During the period of 1980–1990, the atmospheric fallout and the Ob river discharge were equally important for the ⁹⁰Sr distribution in the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, an attempt has been made to explore the possible dispersion of accidental released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers under a global warming scenario (2 × CO₂). The difference between the present-day and the global warming scenario runs indicates that more of the released ⁹⁰Sr from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is confined to the Arctic Ocean in the global warming run, particularly in the near coastal, non-European part of the Arctic Ocean.     

It is Always Dry Here: Examining Perceptions about Drought and Climate Change in the Southern High Plains

ABSTRACT

Drought is defined, experienced, and communicated about in multiple ways. This case study examines individual definitions of drought (timing, impacts, and severity) and attitudes about climate change. Household surveys (n?=?120) were conducted in Cimarron County, Oklahoma and Union County, New Mexico using a stratified random sampling method to select farmers, ranchers, and town residents. Information about drought is primarily communicated between neighbors, friends, and family, as well as media and local governing agencies. Residents perceive the recent drought to be the worst drought on record, regardless of previous drought experiences. Residents reported widespread drought-related impacts on agriculture, environment, and society. Most residents see drought as cyclical and driven by natural causes, rather than human causes. We recommend adaptive drought communication engage more fully with identity, place, and history. Climate information should be presented in a relevant manner to diverse agricultural stakeholders with differing attitudes about climate change, management, and climate information.     

A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability

A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy and ecosystem management.

Male fertility following occupational exposure to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT)

BackgroundThe inconsistent epidemiological results of the endocrine disrupting effects of DDT fuel a harsh debate on its global ban.ObjectivesWe tested the hypothesis that occupational exposure to dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) causes impairment in male fertility in a cohort of DDT exposed workers, in Sardinia, Italy.MethodsWe accessed official records on date of marriage and date of birth of the first child to estimate time to pregnancy (TTP) in the spouses of 1223 workers employed in a 1946–1950 anti-malarial campaign. The TTP calculation was censored at the 13th month after date of marriage. We used a modified Cox's proportional hazard model to calculate the fecundability ratio (FR) by job, by cumulative exposure to DDT, and by time window in relation to the anti-malarial operations, adjusting by paternal age at marriage.ResultsAmong the spouses of DDT applicators, fecundability did not vary during DDT use (FR = 1.22, 95% CI 0.84–1.77) nor in the following decade (FR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.67–1.50) with reference to the prior years. A significant increase occurred among the unexposed and the less exposed sub-cohorts, which generated a non-significantly reduced FR among the DDT applicator sub-cohort with reference to the unexposed following exposure.ConclusionWe did not find evidence of an impairment in male fertility following heavy occupational exposure to DDT. However, although fecundability was highest among the spouses of the DDT applicators in the years prior to the anti-malarial campaign, we cannot exclude that DDT exposure prevented an increase parallel to that observed among the unexposed and the less exposed sub-cohorts.     

Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies

Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic, thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality.     

Evaluating the economic effects of climate change on the European sardine fishery

This study evaluates the economic effects of climate change on one of the most relevant fisheries of the Iberian Peninsula, the European sardine fishery; a fishing ground that is particularly sensitive to environmental impacts. For this, the sea surface temperature is introduced into the problem as an additional variable. This variable allows for the gathering of climate change evidence and its repercussions on the oceans and, consequently, on the marine life and ecosystems. Various plausible scenarios are posed with respect to the trends involving the sea surface temperature. The results show that if the trend of rising surface temperatures continues in the Iberian-Atlantic fishing grounds, both the sardine biomass and the expected profits will noticeably decrease. The biomass and profits will further decrease with greater intensity if the immediate effects of global warming on sea surface temperature become more significant. On the other hand, in a palliation of global warming scenario, both variables decrease to a lesser degree.     

Uncertainty,Irreversibility and the Timing Problems of Environmental Policy

Abstract

Most environmental issues and policy designing are uncertain and irreversible; therefore, the timing of environmental policy implementation becomes especially important. This paper establishes a random dynamic programming model and analyzes the optimal timing problems in environmental policy under uncertain variables. This model results indicate that two variables have a significant impact on the timing of environmental policy implementation and they work in opposite directions: on one hand, the more uncertain the economy is, the higher the cost of policies implementation will be, and consequently the incentive to immediately adopt the policy will be stronger. On the other hand, the higher the uncertainty of the environment is, the stronger the irreversibility of ecological harm caused by pollutants per unit will be. Therefore, the government should implement new environmental policies as early as possible in order to gain more ecological benefits.     

Simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its intraseasonal variability in the NCAR climate system model

The broad climatological features associated with the Asian monsoon circulation, including its mean state and intraseasonal and interannual variability over the Indian subcontinent as simulated in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled climate system model (CSM) in its control reference experiment, are presented in this paper. The CSM reproduces the seasonal cycle as well as basic observed patterns of key climatic parameters reasonably well in spite of some limitations in simulation of the monsoon rainfall. However, while the seasonality in rainfall over the region is simulated well, the simulated area-averaged monsoon rainfall is underestimated to only about 60% of the observed rainfall. The centers of maxima in simulated monsoon rainfall are slightly displaced southward as compared to the climatological patterns. The cross-equatorial flow in simulated surface wind patterns during summer is also stronger than observed with an easterly bias. The transient experiment with a 1% per year compound increase in CO₂ with CSM suggests an annual mean area-averaged surface warming of about 1.73 °C over the region at the time of CO₂ doubling. This warming is more pronounced in winter than during the monsoon season. A net increase in area-averaged monsoon rainfall of about 1.4 mm day^–1, largely due to increased moisture convergence and associated convective activity over the land, is obtained. The enhanced intraseasonal variability in the monsoon rainfall in a warmer atmosphere is confined to the early part of the monsoon season which suggests the possibility of the date of onset of summer monsoon over India becoming more variable in future. The enhanced interannual and intraseasonal variability in the summer monsoon activity over India could also contribute to more intense rainfall spells over the land regions of the Indian subcontinent, thus increasing the probability of extreme rainfall events in a warmer atmosphere. Electronic Publication     

Sustainable Agriculture in the UK

Most agricultural assessments of global environmental change made to date have not focused explicitly on sustainability issues, and have neglected the considerable impacts of shifting agricultural zones, alterations in commercial fertiliser and pesticide use, and changes in the demand for water resources. The current crisis in agriculture, with its economic, political, social and ecological dimensions, has arisen because of the pursuit of a productivity technology/policy model. This broad policy of agricultural ‘modernisation’ and development through the application of agricultural science and technology has shaped the direction of technological change in agriculture and the evolution of a complex agro-industrial food system.¹ This paper focuses on England’s Rural Development Programme² as it contributes to sustainable agriculture alongside the control of pollution.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Three views of two degrees

Limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial global mean temperature has become a widely endorsed goal for climate policy. It has also been severely criticized. We show how the limit emerged out of a marginal remark in an early paper about climate policy and distinguish three possible views of it. The catastrophe view sees it as the threshold separating a domain of safety from a domain of catastrophe. The cost-benefit view sees it as a strategy to optimize the relation between the costs and benefits of climate policy. The focal point view sees it as a solution to a complex coordination problem. We argue that the focal point view is the most appropriate. It leads to an emphasis on implementing effective steps toward a near-zero emissions economy, without panicking in the face of a possible temporary overshooting. After several decades of practical experiences, the focal point may or may not be redefined on the basis of knowledge gathered thanks to these experiences.