中国城乡贫困变动:2004—2012

本文基于2004—2012年中国综合社会调查数据,根据家庭人均年收入2 300元的国家贫困标准线和"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困标准线,使用FGT指数和脱贫时间两种贫困指数评估了我国城乡贫困整体变动趋势,并从城乡和地区、个体和家庭特征层面分解贫困人口构成;也考察了贫困变动的增长效应和收入分配效应;最后定量地分析收入增长的影响因素。结果表明,根据两种贫困标准线,两种贫困指数测度结果一致反映我国贫困人口规模显著减少;按国家贫困标准线,我国城乡贫困发生率下降了8.8%,但到2012年的依然高达8.6%,农村贫困人口平均脱贫时间为5.4年,而相对贫困发生率有所上升。不同地区的贫困变动差异较大,西部地区和中部地区贫困发生率依然高于全国平均水平3.41个百分点和0.22个百分点,贫困强度和贫困深度现象都还较为严重;东部地区的减贫效应十分明显,但贫困人口内部收入差距拉大问题较为突出。经济增长的脱贫效应较为显著,但增长的亲贫性有待提高;城乡、地区和贫困人口内部居民收入差距逐渐拉大,并成为反贫困的严重障碍。外出非农工作经历、性别差异和教育程度是影响收入增长的关键因素。基于此,本文建议反贫政策应瞄准西部地区的教育程度和健康水平较低、家庭规模较大的农村居民,尤其是女性户主家庭,也应加强养老保险、社会帮扶和人力资本投资,形成改善收入分配为重点的社会保障性扶贫政策体系;中部地区可以借助邻近东部地区的地理优势,通过承接产业转移持续实施"开发式扶贫"政策体系;同时,也可将扶贫标准线提高为每人"1天1.5美元"的亚洲贫困线。     

Media Access and Political Efficacy in the Eco-politics of Climate Change: Canadian National News and Mediated Policy Networks

We use a discourse network analysis approach to answer two questions about national news coverage of climate change policy debate in Canada during the period 2006–2010. First, what is the media visibility of actors relevant to policy development and advocacy on climate change? Second, given the political and economic context of climate policy-making in Canada, does greater or lesser media visibility reflect effectiveness in climate policy advocacy? Multiple interpretive frameworks characterize Canadian political discourse about climate change, with fragmentation between the federal government, opposition political parties, provincial governments, and environmental organizations. Contrary to expectations, environmental organizations had high levels of media visibility while the relative invisibility of fossil fuel corporations was notable in the media coverage of Canadian climate discussions. Our findings challenge optimistic accounts of the relationship between media power and political power, and suggest that media power does not necessarily translate to political efficacy.     

中国经济增长与耕地资源数量变化阶段性特征研究

利用Eviews 6.0软件,基于协整分析与Granger因果关系检验方法,探讨经济增长和耕地资源数量变化的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护和经济发展的矛盾。研究结果表明,不同经济增长阶段,我国耕地资源数量变化与经济增长存在长期均衡关系;自1952年以来,我国经济增长和耕地资源数量变化经历了3个阶段,具体表现为：（1）互为因果（1952～1978年）,这一阶段农业在国民经济中具有重要地位,耕地的产出在经济增长中占据较大的份额;（2）前者是后者的Granger原因（1978～1992年）,此阶段耕地资源投入量顺应了经济增长的要求,发挥了自己应有的作用;（3）后者是前者的Granger原因（1992~2008年）,耕地资源作为要素投入支撑了经济的低质量增长,由此产生了重复建设、土地低效利用等问题。因此,关注经济增长和耕地资源数量变化在不同经济发展阶段的均衡关系,发现其中的规律,掌握其中的因果变化趋势,适时调整土地政策以适应经济增长的要求是亟待解决的战略问题。
     

Significant issues in water resources policy

The difficulties in resolving water resource policy questions are analogous in many ways to the difficulties in resolving energy policy questions — technical, legal, institutional and social. Federal involvement in water resources began in 1809 and continues to the present time. The most recent comprehensive study was the Second National Water Assessment by the U.S. Water Resources Council in 1979. Conclusions reached were that water quality and quantity and surface and ground water are artificial distinctions, that water policies should reflect national needs and priorities, that flood control must be accelerated and drinking water quality protected and that more decisions should be made at a local level while integrated into national planning and development. Though the study disaggregated the U.S. into 106 subregions, its projections of a single future rather than a range of futures gives an erroneous sense of predictability to the work. To help resolve the major problems, inadequate supply and contamination and flooding and erosion, ultrasophisticated mathematical models are widely utilized without sufficient verification. A more tractable approach for policy studies would be to use simplified semi-empirical models rather than first principle models. Possibly more important, policy resolution awaits social value resolution which means that the policies adopted must be flexible, incremental, and non-divisive.     

Assessing National Discourse and Local Governance Framing of Climate Change for Adaptation in the United Kingdom

While many national governments struggle to maintain global climate change as a high priority issue, many local governments are taking action to fill the policy gaps. This study examines how local governments across the United Kingdom of Great Britain are reframing climate change. We compiled a dataset of newspaper publications covering climate change over a 10-year timeframe, plus survey and interview responses from local governance practitioners, to identify a shift in national discourse that has changed the priority level of climate change in UK local governance. This paper argues that many local governments are strategically reframing climate change as alternative issues in order to make progress in climate adaptation planning.     

Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

Policy networks,stakeholder interactions and climate adaptation in the region of South East Queensland,Australia

The strategic use of science in regional policy-making forums often assumes collaborative interactions between stakeholders. However, other types of stakeholder interactions are possible. This paper uses the ecology of games to frame an investigation into stakeholder participation in the policy networks for regional climate change planning for South East Queensland, Australia. We tracked organisational participation in policy forums between 2008 and 2012. We then used a novel bipartite network theoretical approach to identify participation by different types of organisations across shared multiple forums, which we argue prefaces: cooperation, collaboration, support or advocacy. Network analysis was then combined with semi-structured interviews to access how scientific information was utilised across the regional network. Our results suggest that stakeholder interactions were predominately used to advocate for organisational agendas. Advocacy artificially narrows the scope of possible policy options and represents a biased, selective use of information. While advocacy is an important part of policy process, as a counter balance, explicit efforts are needed to recurrently expand the scope of policy options.     

From climate research to climate compatible development: experiences and progress in the Netherlands

Over the past decades, significant experience has been gained in demand-driven research on climate change in many countries. In the Netherlands, a competitive call for proposals for large research programmes at the interface between policy, science and private sector was issued in 2001. Members of the Dutch climate research community proved they were able to develop two large research programme proposals which were funded: ‘Climate changes Spatial Planning’ and its successor ‘Knowledge for Climate’. The programmes ran from 2004 to 2012 and from 2008 to 2014, respectively. Both programmes can be considered as a 10-year research programme experiment to develop knowledge about both the climate system and climate compatible development by crossing disciplines, institutions and national research funding strategies. Within this 10-year period, a trend can be observed in which a ‘top-down’ climate impact assessment approach is increasingly combined with a ‘bottom-up’ approach. Based on the 15 articles presented in this special issue (and others), we argue that this development has enriched both fundamental and applied research on climate adaptation. Despite the predominantly Dutch-oriented scope of the presented research, we believe that such experiences can be of international interest. Climate adaptation research finds itself in between global systems knowledge on the one hand and practical needs and experiences at the local, regional and national level on the other. This demands the utmost from all actors involved to enable an efficient and constructive flow and use of knowledge and expertise.     

长江经济带经济演进的时空分析

长江经济带横跨我国东中西部,与沿海经济带共同构成我国国土开发和经济建设的“T”字形宏观格局,是全国经济联系的中心区域,在我国经济发展中具有极其重要的战略地位。改革开放以来,我国率先实施了沿海经济发展战略,地处我国沿海经济带上的长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和环渤海地区得到了超常规发展,带动了全国经济的繁荣,而作为我国另一条发展主轴线的长江沿岸地区,区域发展战略及相关政策的提出则相对较晚。通过对长江经济带的时空分析,选择1992~2010年作为时间序列,以长江经济带作为空间序列,运用定性与定量相结合的手段,在概括长江经济带整体经济发展情况的基础上,分析长江经济带空间分异的变化过程,以期对长江经济带的发展提供可行性的线索和建议     

Five reasons why it is difficult to talk to Australian farmers about the impacts of,and their adaptation to,climate change

Some recent funding programmes in Australia on climate adaptation have expected active engagement with farmers in research projects. Based on our direct experience with 30 farmers and their advisors, we list five reasons why it is difficult to gain traction with farmers in discussing the likely impacts of climate change on their farms and the possible adaptation options they should be considering in preparation for a future changed climate. The reasons concern the slow and uncertain trajectory for changes in climate relative to the time horizon for farm decision-making, when set against short-term fluctuations in weather, prices, costs and government policy. Farmers have optimism for ongoing technological progress keeping abreast of any negative impacts of climate on their production. As one moves from incremental to transformational adaptation options, biophysical research has less to offer because decisions become based more on business structure, portfolio management, off-farm investments and geographical diversification. Some farmers also doubt the intentions of climate change researchers and are wary of anything they may have to offer. We propose there is an actionable decision space where agricultural science and economics can contribute to meaningful analysis of impacts and adaptation to climate change by farmers. This will involve emphasising the principles of farm management rather than defining optimal farm plans; the use of scenario planning to explore possible futures in a turbulent environment for farming; a focus on short-term adjustments as a path to longer term adaptation; re-gaining the trust of some farmers towards climate change scientists through better communication strategies; and understanding the linkages between adaptation options and enabling factors and technologies.     

Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy-makers: a European study

Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.     

Forging New Directions in Science and Environmental Politics and Policy: How Can Co-operation, Deliberation and Decision be Brought Together?

Science, politics and environmental policy have for several years been encountering social and institutional as well as scientific challenges, national and international. The normative basis of all sciences is pressurised from three sides: by awareness of the public, who claims more transparency and sensibility from the scientific institutions regarding factual or possible impacts of science-based industrial progress; by the industries, which try to speed up and intensify the industrialisation of knowledge; and by the public policies, which want to see the sciences engaged in ways to mitigate unintended consequences of economic, ecological and social developments. At the same time, environmental policy is undergoing a tremendous sea change both in conceptual and practical matters. Since the Brundtland Report in 1987 and accelerated after UNCED 1992, environmental policy has been struggling to become a groundbreaking new paradigm for the capacity of resolving social and political issues as well. Any successful attempt to alter traditional institutional and mental structures in policy-making toward sustainability presupposes a renewed association of co-operation, deliberation and decision making. Results from theory of democracy, studies in science and technology, and evaluation studies in environmental policy and politics can be utilised for this context.     

Policy entrepreneurs in international river basins—getting climate adaptation on the cross-border water policy agenda

In this study, we look at the role which water policy entrepreneurs play in promoting and stimulating climate adaptation measures in international river basins. In a Dutch-German case study in the Rhine delta, we explore the range of strategies that policy entrepreneurs employ in cross-border water management to effectively anchor and embed climate adaptation in the water policy debate.

We focus on climate adaptation on the local and regional scale in the Deltarhine region where increased flooding and prolonged drought periods are expected under the current climate change scenarios with a considerable impact on flood protection, agricultural activities, drinking water and ecosystem development.

We analyse the impact of policy entrepreneurs while coping with the challenging cross-border setting and dealing with structural differences in national systems such as the legal and institutional framework. It is shown that whilst the European water guidelines advocate a river basin approach across borders, the guidelines do not (yet) play a catalyst role regarding climate adaptation, and the presence and activities of policy entrepreneurs contribute in putting climate adaptation on the cross-border policy agenda.

Finally, marked differences in the presence of entrepreneurs in Germany and the Netherlands are observed for which two important complementary explanations are offered relating to contextual elements of power asymmetry and dependency as well as different policy styles and organisational cultures in both countries.

     

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

Advancing climate compatible development: lessons from southern Africa

Climate compatible development (CCD) has emerged as a new concept that bridges climate change adaptation, mitigation and community-based development. Progress towards CCD requires multi-stakeholder, multi-sector working and the development of partnerships between actors who may not otherwise have worked together. This creates challenges and opportunities that require careful examination at project and institutional levels and necessitates the sharing of experiences between different settings. In this paper, we draw on the outcomes from a multi-stakeholder workshop held in Mozambique in 2012, the final in a series of activities in a regional project assessing emerging CCD partnerships across southern Africa. The workshop involved policymakers, researchers and representatives from NGOs and the private sector. We employ a content analysis of workshop notes and presentations to identify the progress and challenges in moving four case study countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe) towards CCD pathways, by exploring experiences from both project and policy levels. To advance institutional support for the development of successful CCD policies, practices and partnerships, we conclude that there is a need for: (a) institutional development at the national level to strengthen coordination and more clearly define roles and responsibilities across sectors, based on the identification of capacity and knowledge gaps; (b) partnership development, drawing on key strengths and competences of different stakeholders and emphasising the roles of the private sector and traditional authorities; (c) learning and knowledge-sharing through national and regional fora; and (d) development of mechanisms that permit more equitable and transparent distribution of costs and benefits. These factors can facilitate development of multi-stakeholder, multi-level partnerships that are grounded in community engagement from the outset, helping to translate CCD policy statements into on-the-ground action.     

Journalistic Norms,Cultural Values,and Coverage of Climate Change in the Philippines

Developing nations have tended to have been overlooked in studies of climate reporting. This study is based upon a content analysis of three daily newspapers in the Philippines to examine climate change coverage compared to reporting by Western wire services. In addition, the study draws on individualist–collectivist theory to theorize about differences in reporting between the Philippine and Western wire sources. Despite the historic influence of the American news system on Philippine journalism, the study finds that Western journalistic norms do not describe Philippine climate reporting well and that Filipino-penned articles are more likely to include the value of collectivism rather than individualism. This suggests that national cultural differences may be reflected in climate reporting.     

A situational analysis of Cameroon’s Technical Operation Units (TOUs) in the context of the landscape approach: critical issues and perspectives

The integrated landscape approach is re-emerging in the global agenda as an approach which can give a fair deal to landscape functions such as climate change response, biodiversity conservation, food security, poverty reduction and economic growth. However, transformational change might be required to enable landscapes respond to these different functions. This is due to the sensitive nature of landscapes to local, national and global economic, social and political drivers. Based on national policy instruments, this paper presents a situational analysis of the landscape concept in Cameroon, operationalized as Technical Operation Units (TOUs) and in the context of the present institutional, social, economic and political features, it examines the rationale for a landscape approach in Cameroon. We notice potential trade-offs, indicating that the landscape approach is an opportunity for TOUs in Cameroon. Firstly, TOUs are characterized by multiple resource regimes with overlapping claims each having a legal land allocation and management plan. Secondly, TOUs are characterized by different stakeholders, with different land-use interests and motives, each controlling key components in the landscapes. Thirdly, the interests and motives of stakeholders overlap spatially and are connected to different sectoral policies at the national level. This setting might threaten decision making and the sustainability potentials of landscapes. Nonetheless, we propose areas for in-depth studies to generate knowledge and information to orientate win–win policy construction for landscapes. This is relevant for the social, ecological and economic objectives that underpin the sustainable development goals proposed in the post-2015 development agenda.     

Government intervention in green industries: lessons from the wind turbine and the organic food industries in Denmark

Government intervention in green infant industries may be justified as a strategy to increase the provision of public goods. How should government policies be designed to promote such industries? One way to analyse this question is to compare government intervention in green infant industries in which it has been successful with green infant industries in which it has been less successful. The Danish government has intervened intensively in the wind turbine industry and organic farming sector mainly for environmental reasons since 1992 and 1987, respectively, but with very different impacts. While the electricity market share of wind energy reached 20% in 2007, organic food consumption lags behind with a food market share of approximately 8.5% in 2007. This paper compares the packages of policy instruments applied in the two industrial sectors and assesses whether differences in instrument choice may explain the significant differences in market shares. It is demonstrated that government intervention in the wind turbine industry has emphasized the use of policy instruments designed to increase demand for wind energy, whereas organic farming policy has put more emphasis on instruments motivating farmers to increase supply. This may be an important factor explaining variance in growth. Finally, the paper analyses whether the lessons from government policy aimed at promoting the wind turbine industry can be transferred to organic farming policy.     

Entry points for climate-informed planning for the water resources and agriculture sectors in Cambodia

Incorporating climate change concerns into national development planning allows adaptation to happen in harmony with the sustainable development of a country. Cambodia has received international support to enable climate change-resilient development; “mainstreaming climate change” is one of the key recent strategies. This article aims to identify entry points for integrating climate change concerns into national development planning, especially for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The study uses institutional ethnography research methods with informants drawn from government organisations, local academic institutions, and development partners, together with content analysis of key policy documents. It was found that the Cambodian national planning process restricts the involvement of other actors such as researchers, civil society, and private sector; yet flexible, in that it provides opportunities for the inclusion of climate change and other related concerns. The study identified specific entry points in key policy documents, such as the National Strategic Development Plans, and ministries’ plans. Other entry points were identified in the development planning process, for example, in the process of development departments and ministries’ plans, and actors such as department planners, and departments of planning of line ministries. Climate-informed planning is now plausible; more significant integration of concerns with future climate change, however, will require more commitment and stronger connections among national planning stakeholders, adaptation actors, and research communities.