2006—2012年江苏省环境安全综合评估研究

从江苏省环境安全形势出发,借鉴“压力-状态-响应”（PSR）模型的框架思路,构建了环境安全度量的层次指标体系。从环境安全的压力、状态、响应3个方面确定相应的指数及对应的评估指标,通过基于德尔斐法的层次分析法确定权重,计算环境安全综合指数,并建立环境安全等级划分标准。应用建立的环境安全评估体系,对2006-2012年江苏省环境安全进行了评估。结果表明：2006-2012年,全省环境安全综合指数呈明显下降趋势,安全等级由中警状态好转为预警状态,江苏省环境安全形势不断改善。但2012年以来,大气灰霾、酸雨等复合型污染有所加重,环境安全接近中警状态,全省环境安全形势亟需进一步采取措施进行有效保障。     

基于QUAL2K模型的鹤壁卫河水质模拟预警研究

水质预报预警对于防范水污染、降低水污染风险及其带来的损失、保障用水安全及水环境质量等具有重大意义。提出了一种基于QUAL2K模型的水质模拟预警方法,包括水质模拟预测、预警指数计算和警情确定,以海河流域鹤壁市卫河为例进行实证研究。研究结果表明:基于QUAL2K模型模拟精度分别为COD 97.7%、NH_3-N 98.5%,水质模拟效果较好;所选河段预警时段内COD基本处于无警和轻警2个级别,氨氮大多是巨警,浓度严重超标,是导致监测断面预警指数高的主要原因。     

锦州湾海域生态系统健康状况评价

基于结构功能指标体系评价法,利用层次分析法构建锦州湾海域生态系统健康评价指标体系,并选择2005—2009年8月生态调查数据对其进行初步的定量评价。结果表明,可以通过海洋化学指标、生态学指标和社会经济学指标三大类33个指标来建立锦州湾生态系统健康评价指标体系;2005—2009年8月锦州湾生态系统的整合健康指数依次分别为1.01、1.90、2.00、1.45和1.10,均低于系统健康指数值2,锦州湾海域生态系统连续5年一直处于亚健康状态,且从目前海域的污染现状来看,这一海域的水质、沉积物和生物体污染均比较严重,要修复其生态功能需要投入巨大的物质和能量。     

基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的黄河流域环境安全评价体系法治化研究

黄河流域环境安全评价包括对水环境质量、水环境健康、水环境风险的综合评估和对环境治理有效性的评价，是监测河流环境安全和支撑环境管理决策的重要技术手段。当前，我国尚未形成全面、有效的黄河流域环境安全评价体系。为此，基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型，构建了一套具有法治特色的黄河流域环境安全评价指标体系，并以黄河流域河南段2019年和2020年环境治理工作为例，对模型进行了验证。同时，提出探索赋予河流合法权利，完善以《黄河保护法》为核心的黄河流域环境风险防控法律体系，将适应性治理融入联合执法，建立和完善“河长-警长-检察长”联动机制，建立黄河流域环境风险治理体系和突发环境事件监控预警体系等法治化建议。     

基于多级灰关联法的博斯腾湖水生态健康评价

采用生态系统健康结构和功能指标建立了由物理化学指标体系、生态指标体系2个二级指标体系组成的生态系统健康评价指标体系。将多级灰关联理论引入系统综合评价之中,采用多级灰关联评价方法和综合营养状态指数评价方法相结合,对博斯腾湖自2001年以来水生态健康变化情况进行了综合评价与分析。评价结果显示,自2001年以来博斯腾湖的生态系统健康状态总体情况为中等,自2007年以来生态系统健康综合指数呈一定的下降趋势,并找出了导致水环境恶化的主要原因。     

基于VEGETATION数据的区域生态系统质量评价之一——指标体系选择

目前,环境资源问题已经对我国建设"和谐社会"构成了严重挑战,如何选取合适的评价指标体系和构建生态评价模型对生态系统进行准确的评价是困难的,也是十分必要的.从生态系统的平衡、波动、干扰及阈值等基本特点出发,构建了区域生态质量评价指标体系包括生产能力指数、服务功能的稳定度指数和人口压力指数三大指标.     

饮用水源水质安全预警监控体系构建框架研究

根据安全预警体系的一般原理,从水质安全角度出发,基于基础信息层、预警分析层和决策应用层构建饮用水源水质安全预警监控体系框架;提出建立既考虑区位条件、社会经济、污染负荷、生态破坏力等驱动力、压力影响,又考虑了生态健康、服务功能、环境监管和环境风险等状态和响应的指标体系,为饮用水源水质安全预警监控研究提供一定思路。     

基于P-S-R模型的绿洲农业生态安全评价——以甘肃张掖为例

基于世界经济合作与开发组织(OECD)与联合国环境规划署(UN-EP)共同提出的环境指标P-S-R压力-状态-响应概念模型,从张掖市甘州区农业生态环境压力、农业生态环境状态和农业生态环境响应3方面入手,构建了一个涵盖指标层、因素层、项目层及目标层的4层次绿洲生态安全评价指标体系。在用主成分分析法确定各指标权重的基础上,利用多层次、多目标决策和模糊优选理论,建立张掖市甘州区农业生态安全评价的模糊优选模型,得出2001-2010年张掖市甘州区的农业生态安全的变化趋势。结果表明:近10年来,张掖市甘州区农业生态安全决策优属度较小,农业生态安全总体水平较低,生态环境处于不断的恶化当中,生态安全形势严峻,已威胁到人类的生存和社会经济的发展,该研究为改善当地生态环境质量和农业可持续发展提供科学依据。     

万峰湖水体浮游植物调查及富营养化评价

通过2016年枯水期和丰水期对万峰湖水库浮游植物及水质理化指标采样分析,并应用综合营养状态指数对其水质营养状态进行评价。结果表明,万峰湖枯水期主要以硅藻为主,丰水期以绿藻和甲藻占优势;水体水质处于中营养化状态。相关性分析表明,浮游植物丰度在枯水期与各理化指标相关性不显著,在丰水期与DO、TP呈正相关,与IMn、Chla呈显著正相关。典范对应分析(CCA)表明,TN、SD和pH值是影响该水域浮游植物分布格局的重要因子,且CCA排序图较好显示了浮游植物分布和环境因子之间的关系。     

基于耦合模型的安徽经济与环境协调发展分析

构建了经济发展与生态环境评价指标体系,选用耦合协调度模型计算2010—2019年安徽省不同区域经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度,并采用灰色关联度法计算评价指标与耦合协调度的关联系数。研究结果表明:全省经济发展与生态环境的耦合协调度整体呈改善趋势,耦合协调度集中分布在0.393～0.765,基本处于良好协调或低水平协调阶段。全省不同区域的生态环境指数均大于经济发展指数。省会城市、沿江江南地区耦合协调度高于江淮之间和淮河以北地区。工业"三废"排放量、环境质量、环境污染治理力度是影响经济发展与生态环境耦合协调度的重要因素,建议通过改善这些方面进一步提升经济与环境的耦合协调度水平。     

关于我区西部大开发的几点思考

对新疆西部大开发中环境保护工作应注意的几个问题提出了自己的观点,并结合新疆的实际情况提出了生态环境建设应与生态保护双管齐下,在西部大开发中应以保护人们的生活环境、提高生活质量为目标,扬长避短,发展我区具有特色的产业。     

A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide

This study aimed to make a review and forecast on fertilizers consumption worldwide in order to provide basal data for the decision-making of fertilizers production and for the environmental impact assessment of fertilizers application. It was found that fertilizers consumption was dependent on human population and the increase of fertilizers consumption was mainly resulted from expansion of human population. The univariate linear model, y=a+rx(t), where y is the fertilizers consumption, x(t) is the total human population at year t, r is the annual fertilizers consumption per capita, was used to fit historical data of fertilizers consumption, and the forecasts during 2010 to 2030 were given in detail. Model analysis showed that world’s per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers, were 34.6, 24.4, 6.6, and 3.7 kg, respectively. Per capita annual consumption of total fertilizers for Asia, Africa, Caribbean, Oceania, North & Central America, Europe, and South America were 38.8, 5.9, 6.8, 114.0, 62.9, −0.9, and 43.6 kg, respectively. Compared to the current level, the world’s total fertilizers consumption would reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, an increase of 32.1% against current level. Worldwide consumption of nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers would reach 141,800,601, 50,961,129, and 33,388,650 Mt by 2030, increasing 37.5, 25.8, and 21.2% based on current levels. Consumption of total, nitrogenous, phosphate, and potash fertilizers in Asia and Africa would increase 54 to 55% and 40 to 60% by 2030, respectively. Total fertilizers consumption in North & Central America would see an increase of 39.4% by 2030, and in South America and Oceania it would increase by 30.9 and 64.7%, respectively. By 2030, Caribbean’s consumption for total fertilizers would increase 2.8%. Europe’s total fertilizers consumption was forecast to continuously decline and would have a decrease of 2.4% by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, nitrogenous fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for the world, Africa, Asia, and South America were forecast to decrease in the forecast period. For North & Central America, annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and nitrogenous fertilizers would decrease and the others would increase annually by 2030. Annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers for Oceania were forecast to rise annually by 2030. Europe’s annual relative growths of consumption of total fertilizers and potash fertilizers would decrease in the future.     

特殊风场条件对太湖蓝藻水华迁移的影响研究

在高温、微风气象条件下,适宜蓝藻水华形成。在特殊非均一风场的驱动下,太湖蓝藻水华迁移过程与被均匀风场驱动有所不同。选取太湖典型风向进行分析,并采用三维水动力水质模型对表面非均一风场条件下的风生流流场及水质进行模拟,结果表明,在特殊非均一风场的驱动下,当太湖蓝藻浓度较高时,容易在西部湖区特别在竺山湖、梅梁湾湾内、岸边及湾口聚集,形成水华暴发,这有助于研究太湖污染物及蓝藻水华的输移及空间分布和机理。     

浅析环境医学在环境保护中的应用与展望

环境医学是环境科学中-门新兴的前沿学科,必将对环境科学的发展产生越来越重要的作用,尤其在环境保护的实际应用中会发挥出更大的作用.本文就环境医学在环境保护中的应用与展望进行了浅析,对其在环境保护管理中的实际应用提出了具体的开展方法与应用展望.     

Linking ecosystem services to agri-environmental schemes through SEA: A case study from Northern Italy

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are major policy tools in Europe to increase the environmental performance of agriculture. However, there is evidence that AES's implementation is not achieving the intended objectives and that current monitoring and evaluation frameworks are not adequate to fully assess their environmental effects. We argue that systematic consideration of ecosystem services would greatly benefit the implementation and assessment of AES, and that SEA represents a suitable platform to do this. We illustrate a case study of an ecosystem service-inclusive SEA applied to a rural development program and related AES in Italy. Results indicated that provision and consumptions of a wide array of ecosystem service are affected by AES and that current data management systems would allow to appraise these effects with acceptable efforts. In some other cases however sample field surveys would be needed. The case also shows the importance of mutual learning and knowledge brokerage between SEA practitioners and program officers. Overall, findings suggest that integrating ecosystem service in the design and assessment of AES would provide policy-makers and stakeholders with more focused information and ultimately improve their effectiveness.     

以北运河（北京段）为例模拟评估北京市“水十条”水质改善效果

基于MIKE11构建北运河(北京段)一维水质模型,以氨氮、COD为目标污染物,建立污染源与水质响应关系。以2013年为基准年,考虑不同人口疏解情景预测2020年北运河(北京段)流域人口,并结合北京市"水十条"设置减排情景方案,对2020年水质改善效果进行量化评估。模拟结果表明:北京市"水十条"可实现显著的水质改善效果,到2020年,在中人口疏解方案下,北运河氨氮、COD平均质量浓度相比2013年分别下降40.8%~77.7%、39.3%~59.7%。COD质量浓度可稳定达标,氨氮质量浓度离达标还有一定差距,但日浓度可稳定在8mg/L以下,基本消除了黑臭水体。     

介质阻挡放电-光催化净化汽车尾气中的NO

利用介质阻挡放电(DBD)和光催化相结合可以净化汽车尾气中的NO.介绍了DBD及其与TiO2联合作用时NO初始体积分数、混合气体流量和放电参数对NO净化的影响,实验结果表明,无论有无TiO2催化剂,NO的净化率都随着NO初始体积分数的增加而降低,随着混合气体流量的增大而减小,也随着放电电压的升高而升高.在相同条件下,加入光催化剂后,NO的净化率有了不同程度的提高,而且初始体积分数越低、气体流量越小、放电电压越高,光催化效果越明显.     

国家硫酸工业污染物排放标准制定中的思考

硫酸工业污染物排放标准预计将于2010年内发布实施。在对有关法律法规、规范性文件等进行研究,对我国硫酸工业现状和国外相关排放标准进行分析的基础上,对硫酸工业污染物排放标准制定中有关适用范围、时段划分、污染物控制等内容进行了思考。     

Consequences and Correctives Related to Lake Acidification, Liming and Mercury in Fish – A Case-Study for Lake Huljesjön, Sweden, Using the LakeWeb-model

This work exemplifies how a given lake (Lake Huljesjön, Sweden) would likely respond to changes in pH-values and to liming (a standard measure against anthropogenic acidification). The basic questions are: How would a liming influence pH? How long would the changes last? How would the changes influence the structure and function of lake ecosystems? The work uses a comprehensive lake ecosystem model, LakeWeb, which accounts for production, biomasses, predation, abiotic/biotic interactions of nine key functional groups of organisms, phytoplankton, bacterioplankton, two types of zooplankton (herbivorous and predatory), two types of fish (prey and predatory), zoobenthos, macrophytes and benthic algae. LakeWeb is a dynamic model and gives weekly variations. It has been critically tested using empirical data and regressions from many lakes. Those tests are not presented here but have shown that the model can capture typical functional and structural patterns in lakes very well. This gives credibility to the results presented in this work, which would be very costly to obtain in the traditional manner by extensive field studies in one or a few lakes. This work presents for the first time predictions at the ecosystem level of how functional groups of organisms (and not individual species) are likely to respond to acidification and liming. Two existing dynamic models, one for liming, the other for Hg-concentrations in fish, have been added to the LakeWeb-model. These two models have previously been tested and proven to yield good predictions. The results presented here indicate that there are several probable changes in the structure and function of the lake foodweb related to acidification and liming. The predicted changes in macrophyte cover will influence the predation pressure on fish, and thereby the fish biomass. Reductions in primary production at low pH-values will cause reductions in fish biomass. There are several interesting compensatory effects between factors that increase fish biomass and factors that tend to decrease the biomass. Such matters can be handled quantitatively by the LakeWeb-model.     

Health Risks Associated with Predicted Increase of Cadmium in Cultivated Soils and in the Diet

We have assessed the change of the dietary intake and the potential health risks of cadmium in Finland, assuming that a high level of cadmium in fertilizers (138 mg Cd/kg P) would prevail for the next 100 years. Soil measurements and modelling were used to derive the predicted level of cadmium in foods. In three important cultivars, wheat, potato and sugar beet, the cadmium concentration would increase by 20–35%. Consequently, the average dietary intake of cadmium in Finland would increase from 7.9 to 10.0 μg/day, corresponding with the urinary level of about 0.2 μg/l, a level that has not been associated with effects on the human health. However, in the risk group with 1) high dietary intake of cadmium, 2) elevated gastrointestinal absorption, and 3) tobacco smoking, the estimated urinary level of cadmium would be 2.0 μg/l. Recent epidemiological studies have shown that urinary level of 1–2 μg Cd/l is associated with an increased risk of bone demineralization and fractures, and 2–4 μg Cd/l with pre-clinical kidney damage. People characterized by more than one of the above-mentioned risks factors, may develop the adverse health effects at an old age, when cadmium has accumulated in the body.