我国循环经济发展路径的思考

通过对EKC理论研究,对我国环境经济指标变化情况进行分析,判断目前发展阶段,对我国发展循环经济模式应采取的措施及有效路径进行了展望。     

Analysing the determinants of environmental technology investments. A panel-data study of Spanish industrial sectors

The aim of this paper is to empirically assess the determinants of environmental technology investments in the Spanish industrial sectors with the help of panel data econometric techniques. The paper confirms the relevance of the stringency of environmental regulation to explain overall investment patterns in environmental technologies. These investments are also positively related to human and physical capital intensity and R&D intensity, and negatively related to the export intensity of sectors. Furthermore, the study shows that the determinants for investments are likely to differ between environmental technology types (i.e., end-of-pipe versus cleaner technologies).     

军用物资集装箱内部温-湿度环境条件对比分析

以武汉和深圳两个高温地区军用物资开展集装箱运输为背景,分别对两个地区的集装箱内部温湿度变化及大气温度等数据进行测试并对比分析,对武汉地区的数据进行回归分析,建立了集装箱内部温度模型,预测出该地区集装箱内部最恶劣的温度及湿度范围,为危险军用物资集装箱安全储运提供了理论依据。     

国外物质流分析研究进展

回顾了国外物质流分析研究的起源和发展,并对其主流研究方法作一概述;探讨了物质流分析研究框架及指标体系的发展及应用,对30余个国家的指标体系使用情况做一统计;总结了国外已研究物质流分析的主要国家物质流分析信息的应用情况;指出了国外物质流分析研究的不足之处。     

非感潮河流水污染带范围的估算

在河流污染带范围随机模拟方法的基础上提出了一个附加概率意义的污染带新定义，然后利用线性回归，分别采用３种曲线拟合和１个方面拟合两种方法，对污染带的范围进行估算，结果表明，能较真实地反映河流污染带的实际情况。     

Transition to large-scale organic vegetable production in the Salinas Valley, California

Studying the management strategies suited to large-scale organic production, particularly during the mandated 3-year transition period from conventional management, is a unique research challenge. Organic production traditionally relies on small, diverse plantings and complex management responses to cope with soil fertility and pest pressures, so research should represent decision-making options of an organic grower at the farm scale. This study analyzes crop, soil, pest and management changes during the organic transition period on two ranches (40 and 47 ha) in the Salinas Valley, California in cooperation with a large conventional vegetable producer, Tanimura and Antle, Inc. Permanent transects were established across the two ranches at the onset of adoption of organic practices, and soil and plants were sampled at harvest of almost all crops, while all management operations were recorded by the co-operator. The 10 ha blocks were divided into many small plantings, and 17 different cash crop and cover crop species were planted during the transition period. Management inputs consisted of a range of organic fertilizers and amendments, sprinkler and drip irrigation, cultivation and hand-hoeing, and several types of organic pesticides. Results from the 3-year period followed these general trends: increase in soil biological indicators (microbial biomass and arbuscular mycorrhizae), low soil nitrate pools, adequate crop nutrients, minor disease and weed problems, and sporadic mild insect damage. Multivariate statistical analyses indicated that some crops and cultivars consistently produced higher yields than others, relative to the maximum yield for a given crop. Multi-factor contingency tables showed clear differences in insect and disease damage between crop taxa. Although Tanimura and Antle, Inc. used some of the principles of organic farming (e.g., crop diversity, crop rotation, and organic matter (OM) management), they also relied on substitution-based management, such as fertigation with soluble nutrients, initially heavy applications of organic pesticides, and use of inputs derived from off-farm sources. Their initial production of a large number of crop taxa in small plantings at staggered intervals proved to be an effective strategy for avoiding risks from low yields or crop failure and allowed them to move towards a smaller number of select, successful crops towards the end of the transition. This study demonstrates the feasibility of large-scale producers to transition to organic practices in a manner that was conducive to both production goals and environmental quality, i.e., increased soil C pools, low soil nitrate, and absence of synthetic pesticides.     

Environmental impacts of building materials and building services components for commercial buildings in Hong Kong

The growing concerns over the environmental impacts of buildings have led to increasing demands for more environmental friendly buildings and building materials. Hitherto, there are not any comprehensive studies that show the overall environmental impact profiles of building materials and building services components for buildings. This paper intends to bridge this gap by reporting overall lifecycle environmental profiles of buildings as well as the ranking orders of environmental impacts of all the building materials and building services materials and components for commercial buildings. Twenty-five commercial buildings in Hong Kong, which include three Grade A office buildings, four Grade B office buildings, one Grade C office buildings, four retail centers and three hotels, have been selected for our study. Based upon these collected samples, no statistical differences were found in the average lifecycle environmental impacts for different building types despite some minor variations were detected. Subsequently, 10 types of building materials and 10 types of building services components have been identified for their significant lifecycle environmental impacts on commercial buildings. Among all, concrete, reinforcement bar, copper power cables, and copper busbars were ranked to be the four most significant materials or components to the total lifecycle environmental impacts. These should form the major targets for improvements in environmental performance of commercial buildings.     

Towards the harmonization of water-related policies for managing drought risks across the EU

Drought is recognized as a major issue in the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean region, posing risks to the environment as well as to local and regional economies. The EU policy on water management is continuously evolving, particularly in relation to water scarcity and drought. Starting with the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), which sets the general policy framework for water management across the EU, the EC Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007) 414 final set the priorities for managing water scarcity and drought risks. Three follow-up reports (COM(2008) 875 final, COM(2010) 228 final and COM(2011) 133) highlighted achievements and yearly progress within the context of the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, whereas guidance has further been provided through the issue of Technical Reports (e.g. the EC Water Scarcity Drafting Group Technical Report 2008–023 on Drought Management, Including agricultural, drought indicators and climate change aspects). The 2012 EU Water Review (“Blue Print for Safeguarding European Waters” will assess achievements and identify further requirements towards long-term sustainable water use across the EU. However, a harmonized approach on drought risk management at the EU level is still lacking, whereas drought risk in several countries and regions has not been yet fully integrated in water management and relevant sectoral policies.This paper focuses on a proposed paradigm shift from crisis to risk management, which is currently gaining ground as a means of reducing societal vulnerability to droughts. The paper underlines the importance of engaging into risk assessment and management practices and identifies policy gaps and requirements for further improvement of the drought management policy framework at all levels of governance: at the EU, at the national and at the river basin and regional levels.     

污染河流悬沙与铜、锌污染相关性研究

通过对矿区选矿废水污染的河流水样和悬沙进行采样,分析悬沙、铜、锌质量浓度,探讨河流悬沙与铜、锌之间的相关关系,是有重要现实意义的.研究结果表明:河流水质铜超标严重,丧失了作为农业用水的使用功能.水中铜污染物量与悬沙量相关关系,锌污染物量与悬沙量相关关系都是极显著的.经过曲线回归方程拟合,锌污染物量与悬沙量之间的回归关系比铜污染物量与悬沙量之间的回归关系显著,有3个曲线方程较优,即:对数方程、二次多项式方程、三次多项式方程.据此,通过测定污染河流悬沙量可以粗略地估算水中锌污染物量.     

太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型初探

以太湖2005年的监测资料为基础,运用多元统计回归和BP人工神经网络方法构建模型,探求叶绿素a与水深、水温、营养盐等10项环境因子之间的关系,通过验证发现BP模型对叶绿素a浓度的拟合值与叶绿素a浓度的实测值之间的均方误差为220．3059,优于统计回归模型的235．4569;此外对两种模型进行了灵敏度测试,结果都显示总磷不是太湖叶绿素a浓度的限制因子,而水深、水温、总氮的变化对叶绿素a浓度影响显著。本研究对太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型的建立是十分有意义的。     

Incentivizing REDD+: How developing countries are laying the groundwork for benefit-sharing

Benefit distribution plays a central role in incentivizing action in REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation and forest enhancement). Conceived as a global performance-based incentive mechanism to reduce land-use emissions in developing countries, REDD+ involves changes in resource governance by many actors at multiple scales, in order to minimize the climate impact of land-use activities or to maximize their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A key governance issue for developing countries is how to incentivize action among stakeholders and the way countries design their benefit-sharing mechanisms (BSMs) is therefore seen as a critical factor in determining the success of REDD+ in the long term. This comprehensive research investigates up-to-date national level REDD+ planning documents to provide new evidence on how countries are planning to implement BSMs, including an analysis of common governance themes and where gaps exist. Our unique comparative study based on five country cases reveals that there is a lack of comprehensive participatory, transparent and accountable processes among country strategies and in particular, shortcomings in preparation for local and subnational governance, financial disbursement and dispute-resolution mechanisms. Furthermore, countries are making slow progress on land tenure and carbon rights reform. In fact, such ambiguous legislation on carbon benefits, coupled with weak institutional capacity and ineffective dispute-resolution mechanisms, may make it difficult for REDD+ stakeholders to participate fully in initiatives and receive a fair distribution of benefits. This research indicates that REDD+ actors including donors and national governments will need to further rethink strategies and policy frameworks to improve their BSMs and to guarantee effective, equitable and efficient REDD+ outcomes in the long term.     

成都市生活垃圾分类支付意愿及影响因素的问卷调查分析

为了为成都市垃圾分类政策制定提供科学依据,文章基于问卷调研,运用条件价值评估法结合二元Logistic回归模型、多元线性回归模型,分析了成都市居民对城市生活垃圾分类的支付意愿(WTP)及其影响因素。调研发现:问卷填报者中95.3%的人支持强制垃圾分类,但仅21.0%人深入掌握垃圾分类知识;造成成都市垃圾分类失效的原因,73.8%的人认为政策不到位,需要采取强制监管措施,67.6%的人认为垃圾分类桶等基础硬件设施建设不到位,69.2%的人认为居民自身环保意识差,需要加强环保宣传教育。成都市居民生活垃圾治理的WTP金额为12.65元/月/户。年龄、有无住房、户口类型和月收入4个因素对支付额度有显著影响。     

“冰冻灾害”过程中长途汽车司机心理安全感与应付方式的初步调查

“春季冰灾”的严重后果无疑是“京珠高速”的瘫痪,而长时间滞留其中的长途汽车司机既是灾害当事人,也是灾害见证人。在灾害持续过程中了解当事人心理活动及其变化过程,在灾害心理学上无疑具有理论意义与实践价值。调查结果表明,灾害持续时间（车辆滞留时间）与当事人的心理活动有着密切的关系,灾害持续一周后,当事人的心理安全感显著下降,应付方式开始从成熟型应对向不成熟型应对退化。看来,灾害持续不仅消解心理健康,而且瓦解应变能力。     

沿江感潮水闸环境引水量的计算方法及实例

墅沟临江水闸对上海嘉宝北片的北引南排以及水资源调度提供了重要保护，本文以墅沟临江水闸为例，采用回归分析法和流量系统法探讨了基于水利调度方案下的沿江水闸环境引水量计算过程，并分析了沿江水闸环境引水量计算的主要影响因子。结果表明：（1）影响墅沟水闸引水量的主要因子是闸门的开度；（2）流量系数可以校正一次过闸流量的影响，但难以反映一潮引水中水闸开度动态变化所产生的影响，仍需进行校正；（3）沿江感潮水闸环境引水量的计算，难点在于闸门开度随闸内外水位差而发生复杂的变化，墅沟水闸闸门开度的设计调度方案与水位的变化是逆向的，人为调控的因素起到很大的作用。分析计算表明不同年型对水闸引水量影响较小，可以认墅沟水闸基本能够保证在不同年型的持续稳定引水。     

Assessment of GHG inventories from the LUCF sector of Annex-I countries

Reporting of CO₂ emissions and removals from the landuse change and forestry (LUCF) sector is assessed in this paper based onthe National GHG inventories and the National Communications submittedby the Annex-I countries. LUCF sector is a net sink for 27 countries outof 31 countries and a source for Australia, Estonia, Lithuania and UnitedKingdom. LUCF sector for Annex-I countries, as a group is a net sink of2035 Tg CO₂ (555 Tg Carbon). The sink feature is largely due toCO₂ removal by the existing forests, plantations and other trees.Forest and grassland conversion (deforestation) is not a major source ofCO₂ in the Annex-I countries. Many Annex-I countries have notfully adopted the reporting format of IPCC limiting the comparability andtransparency. Several Annex-I countries have modified the CO₂emission/removal estimates for 1990, but have not explained the reasons.Reporting of uncertainty is very limited. The methods adopted andparticularly reporting is inadequate to meet the requirements foroperationalising the Kyoto Protocol articles relevant to LUCF;comparability, transparency and verifiability.     

支持向量回归方法在震级预测中的应用

本文阐述了支持向量回归(SVR)理论及其特性,提出了基于SVR的次年最大震级的预测方法,并对所选样本进行训练和预测,结果与实际值符合较好,理论分析和实例结果验证了基于SVR的震级预测方法比BP神经网络具有更高的预测精度和可靠性.     

基于DEA-Tobit的城市生态效率评价及影响因素研究——以江苏省为例

基于DEA-Tobit两阶段分析框架,利用超效率DEA模型评价了江苏省13个地级市及苏南、苏中、苏北3个区域2009~2013年的工业生态效率,并采用Tobit模型测量了城镇化率、产业结构、环境规制对该效率值的影响。研究表明:江苏省城市工业生态效率整体处于中上水平,但地区间差异较大:苏中优于苏南,苏南优于苏北;工业用水、工业用地消耗过多,工业废气排放过量是目前影响江苏省城市工业生态效率提升的主要原因;提高城镇化率对江苏省城市工业生态效率有积极的影响,产业结构调整对城市工业生态效率有微弱的抑制作用,环境规制对城市工业生态效率影响并不显著。     

便携β射线法手工监测PM_(2.5)的可行性研究

提出利用自动射线原理结合重量法的简捷便携特点的便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的思路,平行比对了便携射线法和手工重量法所测60组PM2.5浓度的监测结果,采用线性回归及T检验、F检验等理论分析了两者数据结果间的有效性和可比性。结果表明,便携式射线仪监测结果与重量法监测结果之间有效可比且得到了两者间的线性回归方程;此外进行了20组数据的实样验证,换算值和真值之间相对误差在8%以内,因而确定了便携射线仪手工监测PM2.5的可行性。