Influences of Climatic Change on Some Ecological Processes of an Insect Outbreak System in Canada's Boreal Forests and the Implications for Biodiversity

Insect outbreaks are a major disturbance factor in Canadian forests. If global warming occurs, the disturbance patterns caused by insects may change substantially, especially for those insects whose distributions depend largely on climate. In addition, the likelihood of wildfire often increases after insect attack, so the unpredictability of future insect disturbance patterns adds to the general uncertainty of fire regimes. The rates of processes fundamental to energy, nutrient, and biogeochemical cycling are also affected by insect disturbance, and through these effects, potential changes in disturbance patterns indirectly influence biodiversity. A process-level perspective is advanced to describe how the major insect outbreak system in Canadian forests, that of the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. [Lepidoptera: Tortricidae]), might react to global warming. The resulting scenarios highlight the possible importance of natural selection, extreme weather, phenological relationships, complex feedbacks, historical conditions, and threshold behavior. That global warming already seems to be affecting the lifecycles of some insects points to the timeliness of this discussion. Some implications of this process-level perspective for managing the effects of global warming on biodiversity are discussed. The value of process-level understanding and high-resolution, long-term monitoring in attacking such problems is emphasized. It is argued that a species-level, preservationist approach may have unwanted side-effects, be cost-ineffective, and ecologically unsustainable.     

Forest-Climate Interactions in the Quetico-Superior Ecotone (Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota)

Acute ecological changes in North American boreal forests in this century are attributed to an array of factors including human activities. In the Quetico-Superior Ecotone of Northwest Ontario and Northern Minnesota warmer, drier climate conditions since mid-century have concurred with extensive manipulation of regional forests by fire suppression and clear-cut logging. Predicted effects of climate changes expected for the next century could compete with transformations in these systems over the past 10 000 yr. The degree of alteration of natural processes and patterns in North American boreal forests requires implementation of realistic strategies to ensure that sufficiently large tracts of these systems maintain their natural integrity.     

Atmospheric Change, Forests and Biodiversity

Predicted atmospheric change, mainly climate change, will have profound effects on the biodiversity of Canadian forests. Predictions derived from forest models, responses of species and ecosystems related to modern ecological characteristics and paleoecological studies suggest large-scale, wide-ranging changes from the biome to physiological levels. Paleoecological analogues in B.C. and other parts of Canada reveal that major changes must be expected in forest composition, range, structure and ecological processes. In B.C., past warmer and drier climates supported a different forest pattern, including forest types with no modern analogue. This produced dramatically different disturbance regimes, specifically more fires, and affected tree growth rates. The relationship of forests with non-forest habitats, especially wetlands and grasslands was different suggesting implications for wildlife biodiversity. British Columbia's Forest Practices Code prescribes guidelines for biodiversity objectives but ignores the issue of atmospheric change. This omission may result from a lack of understanding of the profound potential effects of atmospheric change on forest biodiversity in the next harvest cycle and lack of mechanisms to assess impacts and develop management strategies for specific sites. An example of a simple paleoecological assessment method involving pollen ratios is proposed.     

Monitoring of Biodiversity Indicators in Boreal Forests: a Need for Improved Focus

The general principles of scale and coarse and fine filters have been widely accepted, but management agencies and industry are still grappling with the question of what to monitor to detect changes in forest biodiversity following forest management. Part of this problem can be attributed to the lack of focused questions for monitoring including absence of null models and predicted effects, a certain level of disconnect between research and management, and recognition that monitoring can be designed as a research question. Considerable research from the past decade has not been adequately synthesized to answer important questions, such as which species or forest attributes might be the best indicators of change. A disproportionate research emphasis has been placed on community ecology, and mostly on a few groups of organisms including arthropods, amphibians, migratory songbirds, and small mammals, while other species, including soil organisms, lichens, bats, raptors, some carnivores, and larger mammals remain less well-known. In most studies of community ecology, the question of what is the importance, if any, of the regularly observed subtle changes in community structures, and causes of observed changes is usually not answered. Hence, our ability to deal with questions of persistence is limited, and demographic research on regionally--defined key species (such as species linked to processes, species whose persistence may be affected, species with large home ranges, species already selected as indicators, and rare and threatened species) is urgently needed. Monitoring programs need to be designed to enable managers to respond to unexpected changes caused by forest management. To do this, management agencies need to articulate null models for monitoring that predict effects, focus fine--scale monitoring on key species (defined by local and regional research) in key habitats (rare, declining, important) across landscapes, and have a protocol in place to adapt management strategies to changes observed. Finally, agencies must have some way to determine and define when a significant change has occurred and to predict the persistence of species; this too should flow from a well--designed null model.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

克州退耕还林工作的现状、问题及对策

干旱区的生态环境,特别是绿洲的开发,改变了地-气系统的能量交换。几年来对绿洲气候的研究、气候资料的分析和实地考察表明,新疆南部干旱区最近几年的戈壁绿洲开发已改变了整个地州的气候变化,使其变为有利于人类的生存和发展。在戈壁绿洲的开发利用与环境变化之间,存在着2种截然相反的反馈作用：环境变好→绿洲发展→环境更好→绿洲再发展;环境恶化→绿洲退化→环境更坏→绿洲再退化,甚至消失。决定这2种反馈作用的是大环境的变迁和绿洲开发利用中是否合理利用资源和按自然规律办事。本文针对此问题进行了论述。     

Effects of climate and landcover change on stream discharge in the Ozark Highlands,USA

Stream discharge of a watershed is affected and altered by climate and landcover changes. These effects vary depending on the magnitude and interaction of the changes, and need to be understood so that local water resource availability can be evaluated and socioeconomic development within a watershed be pursued and managed in a way sustainable with the local water resources. In this study, the landcover and climate change effects on stream discharge from the Jacks Fork River basin in the Ozark Highlands of the south-central United States were examined in three phases: site observation and data collection, model calibration and simulation, and model experiment and analysis. Major results of the study show that climate fluctuations between wet and dry extremes resulted in the same change of the basin discharge regardless of the landcover condition in the basin. On the other hand, under a specified climate condition landcover change from a grassland basin to a fully forested basin only resulted in about one half of the discharge change caused by the climate variation. Furthermore, when landcover change occurred simultaneously with climate variation, the basin discharge change amplified significantly and became larger than the combined discharge changes caused by the climate and landcover change alone, a result indicating a synergistic effect of landcover and climate change on basin discharge variability. Agricultural Research Division, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Contribution Number 13437.Qi Hu: Corresponding author: Dr. Qi Hu, Climate and Bio-Atmospheric Sciences Group, School of Natural Resource Sciences, 237 L.W. Chase Hall, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728, USA. E-mail: qhu2@unl.edu.     

An Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Interior Columbia Basin

Driven by the need to replace interim direction, address recent species listings as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act, and break the gridlock of implementing actions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service (FS) and the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management (BLM), initiated an effort to develop a scientifically-sound, ecosystem-based strategy for lands they administer in the Interior Columbia Basin. The effort included an integrated assessment of 58.3 million ha in seven states describing the Basin's current conditions and risks associated with different management strategies. The assessment provides the foundation for environmental impact statements outlining management direction for 31 million hectares of FS and BLM administered lands. The process produced a framework for ecosystem management, ecosystem component (social, economic, landscape, terrestrial, and aquatic) assessments, and estimates of ecological integrity and socioeconomic resiliency.     

On the optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions: an application of FUND

This paper presents the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND), an integrated assessment model of climate change, and discusses selected results. FUND is a nine‐region model of the world economy and its interactions with climate, running in time steps of one year from 1990 to 2200. The model consists of scenarios for economy and population, which are perturbed by climate change and greenhouse gas emission reduction policy. Each region optimizes its net present welfare. Policy variables are energy and carbon efficiency improvement, and sequestering carbon dioxide in forests. It is found that reducing conventional air pollution is a major reason to abate carbon dioxide emissions. Climate change is an additional reason to abate emissions. Reducing and changing energy use is preferred as an option over sequestering carbon. Under non‐cooperation, free riding as well as assurance behaviour is observed in the model. The scope for joint implementation is limited. Under cooperation, optimal emission abatement is (slightly) higher than under non‐cooperation, but the global coalition is not self‐enforcing while side payments are insufficient. Optimal emission control under non‐cooperation is less than currently discussed under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, but higher than observed in practice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Mammal Diversity in Canada

Current large-scale mammalian diversity patterns in Canada can be accurately explained using various measurements of heat energy. Unfortunately, climatic change is predicted to alter the fundamental climatic basis for contemporary diversity gradients, with the expected consequence that much of the Canadian biota will need to migrate in order to remain within climatically suitable regions. We make predictions regarding future mammal diversity patterns in Canada, and therefore provide a preliminary indication of where management intervention should be directed in order to conserve mammal diversity as climate changes. We also examine the current distributions of individual mammal species in Canada in order to determine which taxa cannot migrate farther north because of the Arctic Ocean barrier. Of the 25 species that fall into this category, we examine the predicted loss of habitat in one keystone species – Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, the collared lemming – and find that this taxon is likely to lose approximately 60% of its habitat with unpredictable but likely detrimental consequences for the arctic biota. We discuss the implications of our findings briefly.     

Disembodied and Disembedded? The Social and Economic Implications of Atmospheric Change and Biodiversity

The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management. This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge; and the management of information. In this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses.     

Regional impact analysis of climate change on natural and managed forests in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

A methodology for regional application of forest simulation models has been developed as part of an assessment of possible climate change impacts in the Federal state of Brandenburg (Germany). Here we report on the application of a forest gap model to analyse the impacts of climate change on species composition and productivity of natural and managed forests in Brandenburg using a statistical method for the development of climate scenarios. The forest model was linked to a GIS that includes soil and groundwater table maps, as well as gridded climate data with a resolution of 10 × 10 km and simulated a steady-state species composition which was classified into forest types based on the biomass distribution between species. Different climate scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of species composition to climate change. The simulated forest distribution patterns for current climate were compared with a map of Potential Natural Vegetation (PNV) of Brandenburg.In order to analyse the possible consequences of climate change on forest management, we used forest inventory data to initialize the model with representative forest stands. Simulation experiments with two different management strategies indicated how forest management could respond to the projected impacts of climate change. The combination of regional analysis of natural forest dynamics under climate change with simulation experiments for managed forests outlines possible trends for the forest resources. The implications of the results are discussed, emphasizing the regional differences in environmental risks and the adaptation potentials of forestry in Brandenburg.     

Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative: Context and Prevailing Legacy

The Northern River Ecosystem Initiative (NREI), 1997–2004, has provided new scientific knowledge in response to specific recommendations from its predecessor, the Northern River Basins Study (NRBS), 1990–1996. The two initiatives together provide a remarkable body of science which is, and will continue to be, used by resource managers responsible for economic and environmental sustainability in the northern watersheds of Alberta. The NREI focused its investigative efforts on improving our understanding related to ecological considerations of changes in river flow, effect of climate change on flow, ecological responses to pollution and cumulative effects, vulnerability of drinking water quality, and to a lesser degree, wildlife (birds) response to large scale changes within the watersheds. Key findings are briefly presented in this paper and discussed in greater detail in the other NREI papers included in this. Commensurate with the undertakings of NREI, provincial and territorial governments, First Nation and Métis communities, and other administrative organizations such as the Mackenzie River Basin Board, undertook policy, regulatory, and watershed initiatives towards achieving sustainability and providing reliable drinking water quality.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

The coastal component of the U.S. integrated ocean observing system

The combined effects of human activities and natural variability present significant challenges to the goals of protecting, restoring, and sustaining coastal ecosystems. Meeting these challenges and resolving conflicts in an informed fashion will require: (1) more timely detection and prediction of environmental changes and their consequences; and (2) more timely access to relevant environmental information. The achievement of these goals depends on the development of a sustained and integrated coastal ocean observing system (ICOOS) that insures timely access to the data and information required to improve: (1) climate predictions and the effects of changes in the weather on coastal populations; (2) efforts to sustain and restore healthy coastal marine ecosystems and living marine resources; and (3) compliance monitoring and evaluations of the efficacy of environmental policies. Although the responsible federal and state agencies all require similar environmental information, many separate programs have evolved for collecting, managing, and analyzing data for various purposes. Consequently, there is too much redundancy; access to diverse data from disparate sources is limited and time consuming; and individual programs are inevitably underfunded and too limited in scope. A system is needed that coordinates and integrates many of the elements of these programs to minimize redundancy, be more comprehensive, provide more timely access to data and information, and satisfy the information needs of a greater number of user groups in a more cost-effective fashion. This is the purpose of the ICOOS.