基于云模型的海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估方法

为更好地解决海上船舶溢油应急管理能力评估过程中的不确定性问题,提出1种基于区间二型模糊层次分析法的云模型综合评估方法。针对评估体系的局部性,借鉴PPRR应急管理过程理论,对影响船舶溢油应急管理能力的因素进行分级和分类,构建全局评估指标体系;分别运用区间二型模糊层次分析法和逆向云发生器确定各指标权重和云模型参数;通过浮动云和综合云算法获得最终评估结果。结果表明:将5个评估等级和评估结果进行仿真得出评估云的“云滴”图可显示出评估结果的能力等级以及评估结果的可信度和稳定性。计算某海区船舶溢油应急管理能力的评估等级为“较好”,即管辖该海区的海事管理部门能较好地解决海上船舶溢油突发事故,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址优化

为优化长江干线中下游溢油应急设备点选址,建立溢油应急需求水域风险评价体系,采用云模型对其评价,进而构建以加权距离最小为目标的溢油应急设备点选址模型。采用自适应差分进化算法(Adaptive Differential Evolution,ADE)对其求解。将模型应用于九江港的溢油应急设备点选址,最终解算选址于瑞昌港区及彭泽港区,此评估结果与九江港实际规划相符。     

海上溢油事故双目标应急物资调度模型

为满足海上溢油事故发生后的应急物资需求,最大程度减少事故带来的损失,根据海上溢油应急物资调度的特点,构建基于应急物资需求量和调度时间模糊不确定下应急成本最小和延误时间最少的双目标调度模型。引入三角模糊函数描述应急物资调度中物资需求量和调度时间的不确定性,构建模糊环境下溢油事故点对应急物资应急成本最小和应急延误时间最少的双目标模型,利用遗传算法求解,并通过算例分析证明了该方法的有效性。结果表明,三角模糊数能很好地表征调度中物资需求量和时间的不确定性及模糊属性,确定的调度方案能为海上溢油事故发生时应急物资调度提供决策依据。     

Critical aspects for collision induced oil spill response and recovery system in ice conditions: A model-based analysis

The recovery effectiveness for oil spills in ice conditions depends on a complex system and has not been studied in depth, especially not from a system risk control perspective. This paper aims to identify the critical aspects in the oil spill system to enable effective oil spill recovery. First, a method is developed to identify critical elements in a Bayesian Network model, based on an uncertainty-based risk perspective. The method accounts for sensitivity and the strength of evidence, which are assessed for the different Bayesian Network model features. Then, a Bayesian Network model for the mechanical oil spill recovery system is developed for the Finnish oil spill response fleet, contextualized for representative collision accident scenarios. This model combines information about representative sea ice conditions, ship-ship collisions and their associated oil outflow, the oil dispersion and spreading in the ice conditions, and the oil spill response and recovery of the fleet. Finally, the critical factors are identified by applying the proposed method to the developed oil spill response system model. The identified most critical system factors relates collision aspect: Forcing Representative Scenario, Representative Accident Location, Impact Speed, Impact Location, Impact Angle and response aspect: Response Vessel Operability.     

基于CFD的深水钻井溢油事故定量风险评估

针对深水钻井作业过程中的井喷溢油问题,基于计算流体力学(CFD)方法,通过UDF函数给定海流流剖面、波浪入口边界条件和海水静压分布情况,结合标准k-ε方程,采用VOF模型实现对油、气、水三相自由面的追踪,建立了溢油扩散事故数值仿真模型,评估深水条件下溢油扩散危害区域,研究海流流速、溢油量对原油扩散的影响。结果表明,海流流速和溢油量是原油扩散行为和危害区域分布范围的重要影响因素。     

基于FERC模型的油品流淌火灾定量风险评估方法研究

为了评价油品储运过程中的流淌火灾风险,提出1种基于FERC模型的油品流淌火灾定量风险评估方法。以某汽油管道为例,分析大孔泄漏、中孔泄漏、小孔泄漏３种模式下流淌火各参数的动态变化过程,计算管道周边不同位置处的个人风险值。研究结果表明:流淌火燃烧面积的最大值随泄漏速率的增加而增大,对于给定的算例条件,大孔泄漏情景下的最大燃烧半径较小孔泄漏增大了18.4倍;相较小孔泄漏,大孔泄漏下安全距离增大了6.7倍;在距离泄漏点100 m的位置,小孔泄漏、中孔泄漏和大孔泄漏条件下的辐射热流密度值分别为0.13,1.34,8.02 kW/m2;距离泄漏点34 m处时,大孔泄漏已经占总个人风险的99%;在开展风险评价时,应着重分析大孔泄漏的情景。     

海上溢油应急物资调度双目标规划模型

为最大程度降低溢油事故造成的不利影响,提出充分考虑海上油膜漂移特性及溢油点和漂移点对救援物资需求不确定等特点,基于鲁棒优化思想,建立救援应急成本最小、应急时间最短的双目标规划模型,并基于NSGA-Ⅱ算法设计求解方法.结果 表明:决策者可根据自身对溢油事故规模的判断,得到不同应急物资调度方案,为应急出救点的选择和物资调度...     

An experimental study on the burning rate of a continuously released n-heptane spill fire on an open water surface

Spill fires are common during oil product storage and transportation after a loss of containment. Since the burning fuel is moving and the fuel depth is quite shallow, the burning rate in a spill fire is different from that of a pool fire with a static burning zone. Unlike pool fires, which have been studied for decades and have well-established correlations for burning rate, research on spill fires is inadequate. In this paper, continuously released n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted on open water surfaces with varying fuel discharge rates. The pool diameters were measured, and the spill fire burning rates were estimated based on a dynamic balance between fuel supply and combustion. The burning rates in n-heptane pool fires from the literature were reviewed and compared with the estimated burning rates in spill fires of the same dimension. The spill fire burning rate was found to be close to that in a pool fire during the initial burning phase but lower than that in a bulk burning pool fire and that in a “fuel-level-controlled” pool fire. The distinction between the burning rates of spill fires and pool fires is explained by the heat balance analysis of the fuel layer. A model for the spill fire burning rate was proposed accordingly. The results calculated with the presented model are closer to the measured data than those calculated with pool fire models.     

深水内波条件下井喷原油扩散规律数值仿真分析

为研究深水内波条件下井喷原油扩散问题,基于计算流体动力学CFD方法,建立深水内波条件下的溢油扩散后果预测模型,研究深水溢油在内波流场中的扩散规律,评估溢油在内波流中的上浮时间、扩散距离等关键风险参数,探讨内波工况、井喷流量及海况条件对深水溢油扩散行为和后果的影响。研究表明:泄漏原油喷射涌入海水中形成射流和羽流,向下部海流出口方向偏移,上升至250m处原油破碎分散为小油滴,受内波剪切作用,扩散范围增大,并向上部海流出口方向偏移,溢出点位置位于泄漏口正上方附近;内波流速变化对原油运移至海面所需时间无明显影响,对横向扩散参数有较明显影响;泄漏速率变化对原油的溢出时间和横向扩散参数均有较明显影响;海况条件对原油溢出时间、运移过程和扩散范围均有较明显影响,其中内波条件下,井喷溢油造成的危害最大。     

An experimental and modeling study of continuous liquid fuel spill fires on water

The spread of burning fuel spilled from oil product containers during offshore storage and transportation may cause large damage and trigger further accidents. Some analytical models already exist to predict the spread and burning behavior of liquid fuel spill fires, however, few experimental studies have been conducted to verify the model results. In this paper, continuous n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted in a rectangular trench covered with water. The burning area, fuel spread rate, and thermal flux with different discharge flow rates and ignition delay times were investigated by both experimental and modeling means. The spill fire burning area, with 5 typical phases during burning, has a quasi-steady value which is directly proportional to the discharge rate but irrelevant to the ignition delay times. The steady burning rate, as the ratio of discharge rate over burning area, was estimated. A spread model was modified to simulate the spread of continuous liquid fuel spill fires in a one-dimensional channel, based on the balance between gravity and viscous forces. A cuboid solid flame model was used to compute the thermal flux from spill fires. The burning fuel spread and the heat flux calculated by the models agree with the experimental results.     

A study of spreading of crude oil in an ice channel

An oil spill on solid ice poses unique challenges to that of a spill on water or land. One challenge, which this study has elected to investigate, is the tendency of ice to crack and form channels. These channels are able to transport the oil away from the main mass of the spill making efficient cleanup difficult. Within the context of in situ burning, the oil channels may expedite the critical thickness of the oil spill being reached. A series of bench scale tests using a 100 cm long ice channel were conducted to study the effects of varying ice channel widths on the spread of an oil mixture, to mimic solid sea ice conditions that may be found in higher latitudes. Results suggest that spread rates of oil in ice channels approximately follows a viscous two-dimensional box model. The implication of these results on in situ burning of oil in icy conditions is discussed.     

基于模糊Bow-tie模型的油轮靠港装卸作业溢油风险分析

为了全面分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油事故风险,在风险定量分析中引入了模糊Bow-tie模型,基于事故树方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业发生溢油事故的原因,采用事件树方法分析溢油事故可能导致的后果,利用模糊集理论与专家评价相结合的方法分析油轮靠港装卸作业溢油的模糊可能值,采用层次分析法确定作业溢油后果因素的权重值,采用矩阵乘法计算溢油后果风险值。分析结果表明:油轮靠港装卸作业过程中一旦发生溢油,发生火灾+污染、爆炸+污染的概率较高。基于以上风险分析提出了油轮靠港装卸作业风险的防控措施,可为油轮靠港装卸作业安全风险管理提供参考。     

LNG accident dynamic simulation: Application for hazardous consequence reduction

The evaluation of exclusion (hazard) zones around the LNG stations is essential for risk assessment in LNG industry. In this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations have been conducted for the two potential hazards, LNG flammable vapor dispersion and LNG pool fire radiation, respectively, to evaluate the exclusion zones. The spatial and temporal distribution of hazard in complex spill scenario has been taken into account in the CFD model. Experimental data from Falcon and Montoir field tests have been used to validate the simulation results. With the valid CFD model, the mitigation of the vapor dispersion with spray water curtains and the pool fire with high expansion foam were investigated. The spray water curtains were studied as a shield to prevent LNG vapor dispersing, and two types of water spray curtain, flat and cone, were analyzed to show their performance for reduction and minimization of the hazard influencing distance and area. The high expansion foam firefighting process was studied with dynamic simulation of the foam action, and the characteristics of the foam action on the reduction of LNG vaporization rate, vapor cloud and flame size as well as the thermal radiation hazard were analyzed and discussed.     

基于事故序列图的大型油轮原油泄漏事故风险研究

美国海岸警卫队在利用IRA评估其装备总体风险的过程中,充分运用事故序列图帮助分析人员从整体层面认识事故、灾难从产生到发展的过程,查找事故中的各个要素,分析各要素在事故演变过程中的作用和影响。针对我国大型油轮原油泄漏事故风险日益增加的现状,介绍了事故序列图分析事故的原理,并结合典型事故案例,给出了防止大型油轮发生原油泄漏事故的措施,以及减轻事故影响的方法。     

深水钻井隔水管紧急解脱失效动态风险分析

为了分析钻井隔水管紧急解脱失效动态风险,保证深水钻井隔水管紧急解脱安全运行,通过辨识隔水管紧急解脱相关风险因素,以及隔水管紧急解脱失效的潜在后果,采用模糊事故树和事件序列图相结合的方法,建立隔水管紧急解脱失效后果模型;基于映射准则,将模型转换成贝叶斯网络,进行深水钻井隔水管紧急解脱风险的定量分析;研究了紧急解脱动态失效概率和关键致因,并从钻井隔水管系统设计、钻井作业、紧急解脱测试和操作等方面提出预防措施,以降低紧急解脱失效概率;以南海8号钻井平台为研究对象进行案例分析。研究结果表明:1年内隔水管紧急解脱失效的概率区间为0.075 7至0.105 0;台风、不合理的解脱时刻、过提力不足、井口倾角大和内波是导致紧急解脱失效的主要原因;该模型评估结果与实际情况相符合,该方法可用于钻井隔水管紧急解脱失效风险评价。     

Numerical simulation of LNG dispersion under two-phase release conditions

The use of LNG (liquefied natural gas) as fuel brings up issues regarding safety and acceptable risk. The potential hazards associated with an accidental LNG spill should be evaluated, and a useful tool in LNG safety assessment is computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. In this paper, the ADREA-HF code has been applied to simulate LNG dispersion in open-obstructed environment based on Falcon Series Experiments. During these experiments LNG was released and dispersed over water surface. The spill area is confined with a billboard upwind of the water pond. FA1 trial was chosen to be simulated, because its release and weather conditions (high total spill volume and release rate, low wind speed) allow the gravitational force to influence the cold, dense vapor cloud and can be considered as a benchmark for LNG dispersion in fenced area. The source was modeled with two different approaches: as vapor pool and as two phase jet and the predicted methane concentration at sensors' location was compared with the experimental one. It is verified that the source model affect to a great extent the LNG dispersion and the best case was the one modeling the source as two phase jet. However, the numerical results in the case of two phase jet source underestimate the methane concentration for most of the sensors. Finally, the paper discusses the effect of neglecting the ?9.3° experimental wind direction, which leads to the symmetry assumption with respect to wind and therefore less computational costs. It was found that this effect is small in case of a jet source but large in the case of a pool source.     

成品油管道地下水环境风险评价研究

应用环境风险评价理论,以石家庄-太原成品油管道为例,通过对工程与环境特性进行分析,识别出其主要的地下水环境风险。根据FEMWATER模型软件,结合当地的水文地质条件,模拟在设定的假想事故状态下,对地下水环境风险进行了评价研究。并提出了有针对性的工程防范措施和监测、管理对策,为工程建设环境风险管理和水资源保护提供了参考依据,也为其他成品油管道的环境风险评价提供了参考。     

突发性大气污染事件数字化动态应急预案系统及其应用

针对近些年频繁发生的突发性大气污染事件,构建了数字化动态应急预案系统。该系统由基础信息数据库、气象环境模式与健康风险评估系统、数字化动态应急预案三部分组成,并利用地理信息系统将三者有机结合,将事故基本信息、事故发展预测及救援状况直观、动态地展现在系统界面,使应急行动得以及时、高效地展开。实地外场综合应急演习证明,该系统技术路线稳定畅通,运行高效,功能强大,具有较好的可行性和实效性。     

基于海洋石油作业事故风险分析的应急研究

海洋石油作业具有高危险性、高投入的特点,从事故应急管理内涵角度出发,以海洋石油作业事故历史数据统计及风险分析为基础,开展了不同海洋石油作业事故在应急管理过程中的重点内容的研究,进而指导、细化海洋石油作业应急工作。     

海上平台事故应急演练评估方法研究

针对目前我国海上平台事故应急演练缺乏有效评估体系的现状,结合海上平台事故应急演练典型示例,运用“事故应急指挥系统（ICS）”基本理念,对整个应急演练过程进行系统分析,从人员安全、资产保护、环境保护、企业声誉等4个方面搭建应急演练评估框架。采用层次分析法构建计算模型,合理设置评估指标权重,最终建立了1套具有海洋石油行业特点的应急演练评估指标体系,并选取国内1个海上平台事故应急演练进行了应用分析。研究结果表明:构建的演练评估指标体系及评估方法能较好地应用于海上平台事故应急演练过程,进而在演练评估结果的基础上,实现应急演练的持续改进。