A retro-synthesis approach for hazard evaluation and risk screening

Risk screening instruments can be very useful for evaluating hazards and establishing priorities for risk reduction. Further, these instruments can provide educational value to field staff when they are distributed to individuals outside of traditional process safety roles. This paper describes a retro-synthesis technique whereby risk screening instruments can be readily generated for these types of hazard evaluation and priority setting activities. Further, by utilizing a retro-synthesis approach, data gathered at the field level can often be drawn upon at a later point if a more detailed risk assessment is required. The retro-synthesis approach involves working backwards from traditional risk functions (relationships) so as to define the predominant elements for incorporation within the risk screening instrument. Compared to conventional techniques, the retro-synthesis approach utilizes deductive reasoning techniques in a manner similar to Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). However, the directional relationships that are established between causes and consequences become inverted.For example, risk can be defined as a function of “likelihood” and “severity”, where “severity” may be a function of the “energy released” and the “exposure group”. Similarly, the “energy released” is often a function of the “properties of the material involved” and the “amount of material released”. Through identifying these relationships, “risk” in this example can be characterized as a function of “likelihood”, “exposure group”, “properties of the material involved”, and “amount of material released”. Further, by highlighting the various influential parameters, the relationships between each of these parameters, as related to risk, can also be understood. Once the various terms and functions are defined, screening categories can then be developed to quantify each of the terms so as to allow for an approximation of the relative risk involved for the given scenarios.This approach benefits from being simple to develop, maintaining alignment with the mathematics required for more detailed quantitative risk assessments, and generating screening categories which can be given to field staff. Through careful construction of the screening categories field staff can then rapidly, and in a reproducible manner, screen a large number of scenarios so as to identify those situations which represent priority hazards.     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.     

Utility optimization strategy of safety management capability of coal mine - A case study of JCIA

This article describes optimization strategy of SMCCM from perspective of utility of coal miner with the method of empirical research. Four elements of SMCCM are put forward which consist of “employee safety knowledge”, “equipment safety knowledge”, “environment safety knowledge” and “rule safety knowledge”. Eight elements of utility are put forward which consist of “benefit satisfaction”, “promotion satisfaction”, “job satisfaction”, “enterprise satisfaction”, “management satisfaction”, “colleague satisfaction”, “relationship satisfaction” and “communication satisfaction”. Then hypotheses of influence path between SMCCM and utility are proposed. JCIA is chosen as the sample to carry out survey, which questionnaire is designed based on the likert six-point scale to avoid the middle tendency of the test samples. Data analysis is done from following angles: analysis of the structure and utility of test samples, variables analysis of SMCCM and utility, model analysis of interaction between SMCCM and utility. And then results are obtained from the analysis of elements of SMCCM and elements of utility. Conclusions: first, “rule safety knowledge” should be strengthened above all; second, “job satisfaction” should be paid more attention to; third, coal miner’s benefit should be concerned specially.     

基于ANP方法的社区事故应急能力评估指标权重的确定

在分析社区在重大事故应急救援中特殊作用和地位的基础上,指出开展社区事故应急能力评估的目的和意义。简要分析化工型社区事故危险性和应急特点,综合考虑社区事故应急能力的各类影响因素,构建化工型社区事故应急能力评估指标体系。选择网络分析法对社区事故应急能力进行评估,建立社区事故应急能力评估指标体系的网络层次结构模型,并利用网络分析法计算各指标的权重。该方法将较好地考虑社区事故应急能力评估指标体系之间存在相互影响和反馈关系的特点,从而提高对社区事故应急能力评价的可靠性和准确性。     

Exploring the perceived influence of safety management practices on project performance in the construction industry

Although safety management is known to be vital to construction projects, very few studies have solicited views from construction practitioners about their perceptions of which safety management practices (SMPs) are important to construction projects and related to project performance. An empirical study was undertaken in Hong Kong in order to shed more light on this topic. In the study, the importance levels of 15 popular SMPs and five project performance criteria were rated by 232 respondents. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and three SMP categories - information, process, and committees - were extracted. Of these three categories, safety management process was perceived by the construction practitioners as being the most important, followed by safety management information and committees. Moreover, the effect of the three SMP categories on a composite project performance variable was tested using hierarchical regression analysis. Results indicate that the “information” and “committees” categories were associated with project performance positively and significantly. One of the major conclusions of the study is that the construction industry has paid relatively less attention to safety management committees, which were empirically analyzed as having a strong perceived impact on project performance. In order to improve project performance, construction companies should promote the criticality of safety management committees.     

基于灰色层次分析法的突发事件应急管理能力评价

突发事件的频发,使得对应急能力的评价备受关注。首先按照应急管理能力评价指标的选取原则,构建了突发事件应急管理能力评价指标体系。然后利用层次分析法确定各评价指标的权重系数,采用专家打分法建立评价指标集,运用灰色系统理论计算评分,进而建立了适用于突发事件应急管理能力的灰色层次分析评价模型。最后对某区域的突发事件应急管理能力进行实例分析,在定量计算的基础上,对其应急能力进行缺陷诊断,并提出措施建议,为完善应急能力提供科学有效的依据。     

Ethics and fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria

Ethics are concerned with distinguishing between what actions are “right” and “wrong” and what values are “good” and “bad”, etc. and there is a long academic tradition in discussing ethics and ethical theories. Risk acceptance criteria, on the other hand, distinguish between levels of risks that are acceptable and levels that are intolerable. In some sense, one may say that risk acceptance criteria distinguishes between “good” and “bad” systems and activities with regards to the risk they expose the society or elements of a society to and there is thus an obvious link between ethics and risk acceptance criteria or to risk management at large. However, there are few references in the literature that explores this link, and in this paper, the ethical foundation of fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria will be elaborated upon.This paper considers some important principles for establishing risk acceptance criteria for safety critical systems and activities. The various principles and the philosophies behind them might at first sight seem contradictory and exclusive, but it is demonstrated how they may coexist in one and the same regulatory regime; They may complement each other in order to achieve the overall safety objectives of society. Then, some brief considerations of the ethical foundations for the principles will be given and some relevant examples of actual risk acceptance criteria will be given from the maritime industries. However, it is believed that the principles and discussions are of general interest and apply to all areas of technical risk and to safety regulations in a broader perspective.     

Risk management and workers’ safety behavior control in coal mine

According to the risk management characteristics and the actual needs of safety production in coal mine, we thoroughly analyze the system of risk management method in coal mine and implement it in Geting Coal Mine. The system manages and controls the potential accident risks, hazard sources and human behavior risks. On this basis, the system of workers’ safety behavior control technology in coal mine is further studied, the “three disobeying” is classified and managed, the “three disobeying” database and safety countermeasures database are established, and the application software - the system of risk management and safety countermeasures optimization in coal mine based on B/S mode is developed and applied, which uses intranet to analyze and supervise the “three disobeying”, publish early-warning information, optimize management and control countermeasures; at the same time, the important prompting messages can be automatically sent to the mobile phones of relevant managers and the person in charge through public communication system in order to improve the real time capability and effectiveness of unsafe behavior control. The technological system and application software implemented in Geting Coal Mine has achieved good results.     

基于可拓理论的化工园区应急管理能力评估

为了提高化工园区应急管理水平,探索园区应急管理存在的问题,引进可拓理论 对化工园区应急能力进行评估。首先,建立化工园区应急管理能力评估指标体系,选取 预防与应急准备能力、监测与预警能力、应急处置与救援能力以及事后恢复与重建能力 为一级评估指标;管理建设能力、人员培训能力、应急保障能力等9项为二级评估指标 ;规章制度、机构体系、应急预案等31项为三级评估指标。然后,构建化工园区应急管 理能力可拓评估模型,对榆林市某化工园区进行实证评估研究,结果表明:该化工园区 应急管理能力级别变量特征值为2.03,评估级别为良好。     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

基于耦合协调度的煤矿安全应急管理评价

针对煤矿安全应急管理主动性和协调性缺乏易导致矿难事故发生的问题,提出基 于网络层次分析法（ANP）与序参量法的安全应急管理耦合协调度评价模型。通过归纳 煤矿安全应急管理进程中的耦合协调度,构建包括5个子系统、11个序参量以及33个二 级指标的煤矿安全应急管理耦合协调度评价指标体系。借助超级决策软件确定各指标权 重,然后采用序参量法对煤矿安全应急管理的预防、准备、响应和恢复4个环节进行协 调度测算。结果表明:示例煤矿安全应急管理的准备与响应两环节的各子系统协调度最 高,系统整体协调度较低。     

关于构建高校突发事件应急管理机制的思考

建立健全高校突发事件应急管理机制,增强高校的应急管理能力,是积极预防和妥善处置高校突发事件的必然要求。本文界定了高校突发事件应急管理机制的内涵,指出高校突发事件应急管理机制具有协调、发展、稳定与规范等功能,阐述当前高校突发事件应急管理机制建设中主要存在应急管理理念滞后、应急管理制度缺乏、应急预案可操作性不强、应急管理模式落后、心理干预薄弱等问题的基础上,认为高校突发事件应急管理机制至少应包含五个核心要素,即由应急管理理念创新机制、危机教育机制、心理危机干预机制、师生利益诉求反映机制组成的应急预防机制、由预案制定机制、应急保障机制组成的应急准备机制、监测预警机制、由救援处理机制、综合协调机制、信息披露机制组成的应急处置机制、由恢复重建机制、调查评价机制、心理恢复机制组成的善后处理机制。     

地铁工程建设应急管理评估体系的构建

提出了兼顾多方视角和"天平原则"的地铁工程建设应急管理评估体系构建原则,从应急管理过程和应急管理职能两个维度建立评估体系框架;根据法律法规条例、权责现状调查、文献研究,细化评估指标并制定评估条款,选用主观性评估和客观性评估相结合的评估方法;形成针对建设行政主管部门、建设单位、施工单位等不同应急管理主体的地铁工程建设应急管理评估体系,并进行了评估体系的科学性与系统性以及实用性与适用性的论证。     

基于过程方法的企业安全评价指标体系构建方法

针对安全评价技术的应用现状,分析现有安全评价体系在构建上的局限性,认为安全评价体系应基于现代安全管理体系的运作方式进行构建;回顾安全管理的发展过程,对代表现代安全管理的两种管理模式的起源及特点进行了分析,认为两种管理模式都应用了质量管理的过程方法;在该基础之上,结合过程方法的特点与企业的实际运作方式,提出基于过程方法的安全管理模型,并运用该模型,对安全评价体系的指标构成进行分析;以危险源识别、管理过程、安全教育与培训和应急准备与响应4个指标为基础,构建了安全评价体系的框架。     

The oil and gas industry,the competence assessment of Offshore Installation Managers (OIMs) and Control Room Operators (CROs) in emergency response,and the lack of effective assessment of underpinning technical knowledge and understanding

Within the UKCS offshore oil and gas industry there exist key personnel who perform critical roles in an emergency as part of the installation's emergency response team (ERT), two of these personnel are the Offshore Installation Manager (OIM) and the offshore Control Room Operator (CRO). The OIM is responsible for the safety and well-being of all persons onboard and within 500 m of the installation. Should an emergency situation arise, the OIM performs one of the most critical roles in emergency response - management of the response to the emergency to mitigate and make safe the installation to secure a place of safety for persons onboard or organise their safe evacuation. Such emergency response shall also include limiting the loss of hydrocarbons to the environment. The CRO monitors and interprets the output from an installation's Distributed Control System (DCS) and Fire and Gas Panel (FGP), responding to alarms and deviations from steady state. In many instances, an offshore CRO's actions in response to these deviations can determine whether or not the situation deteriorates into a disaster. Should an emergency occur, the CRO will act in accordance with an installation's emergency response procedures and OIM instructions.The persistence of incidents, a number leading to disasters, in the industry highlights the importance of both OIM and CRO competence in controlling emergencies. Both positions require an effective system to assess the competence of job holders. Research at the University of Aberdeen identified potential barriers that can prevent the effective competence assessment of an OIM in emergency response. An extension to this research analyses the two offshore industry standards for competence in emergency response: OPITO 7025 – OIM Controlling Emergencies and OPITO 9004 – Control Room Operator Emergency Response, and associated documentation, applying a critical hermeneutic approach, focusing on the assessment of underpinning knowledge and understanding within the roles. The key findings are that there currently exists no effective means to assess the underpinning technical knowledge and understanding of either OIMs or CROs in emergency response within the offshore industry. Knowledge and, in particular, understanding are poorly defined within the relevant OPITO standards. There exists no validation of evidence collated to support an individual's underpinning knowledge and understanding and no truly independent audit of collated evidence or the process of assessment.The research is important to Duty Holders (see also OSD Installation Operators under UK Offshore Safety Directive Regulations) and employers within the offshore oil and gas industry, organisations associated with the offshore industry, safety engineers and UK Government departments with regard to the effectiveness of competence assessment of appointed OIMs and CROs. It is also significant to risk engineers when considering the probable competence of key emergency response personnel in a given environment at a given point in time. The research is not just applicable to the UKCS offshore industry but also to the global offshore oil and gas industry.     

基于云模型和TODIM的应急预案评估方法研究*

为提高应急预案评估的科学性，提出基于云模型和TODIM法的应急预案评估新方法,利用云模型表征语言评估信息，通过得分函数处理云值，提出基于云值的主客观权重计算方法，以弥补单一赋权法求解评估指标权重的不足；基于云模型和TODIM法对候选应急预案进行优劣排序，并验证本文方法的可行性和有效性。研究结果表明:基于云模型和TODIM法的应急预案评估新方法计算出的数值结果合理、准确，研究结果可为相关部门提高应急管理能力提供借鉴。     

基于风险和应急准备能力评估的 应急救援能力建设

为提升我国应对综合自然灾害的应急响应与救援能力,笔者首先指出我国目前在应急准备能力评估和应急救援能力建设方面存在的主要问题;然后以地震为例,提出应急准备能力评估的指标体系框架、指标分类及评价方法,通过评估找出现存能力差距,开展基于风险评估和应急准备能力评估的应对综合自然灾害的救援能力建设。研究表明:开展基于风险和应急准备能力评估的救援能力建设能实现重特大自然灾害快速有效响应与指挥调度能力,极大提升我国重特大自然灾害的应对能力。     

安全生产中介组织参与安全生产事故应急管理研究

在工业企业安全生产事故应急管理中,安全生产中介组织能为政府和企业提供重要的科技服务与支撑。为了更好地发挥安全生产中介组织科技中介的作用,研究了安全生产中介组织如何利用技术与知识优势参与工业企业安全生产事故应急管理。在事故应急预防与准备阶段,通过参与应急预案编制与演练、隐患排查与风险控制、应急技术研究,为企业和政府提供人才与技术支持;在事故应急响应阶段,从信息和处置技术方面协助事故现场应急处置;在事故后的恢复与重建阶段,参与事故信息分析整理、协助恢复企业经营活动、协助设计监督与评估机制等。通过加强自身能力建设参与应急管理的全过程,真正发挥专业科技型中介组织的作用。     

基于城市地铁实证分析的突发事件风险发展趋势评价模型研究

为了更好地完善突发事件风险评价过程,运用风险发展趋势评价模型对风险评价过程进行补充。采用Daniel趋势函数、灰色理论和模糊理论建立突发事件的风险发展趋势评价模型,并对广州市地铁运营风险发展趋势进行实证分析。结果表明,从执行过程看,该模型改善了突发事件风险评价的范围和评价结果的准确度,评价过程具有一定的可行性和客观性,可以推广应用到各类突发事件的风险发展趋势评价中。通过实证分析,该城市的地铁运营风险当前处于临界状态以下,可以保持当前的运营状态,与该城市的地铁运营状况相符合,对于单个子系统,乘客和员工素质系统目前处于临界状态,对整个地铁系统的安全性有较大影响,城市居民和员工素质需要进一步提高。     

北京西站应急管理现状及对策

从2006年春运期间北京西站发生的大规模旅客滞留事件入手,通过对事件发生的原因、发生过程以及事件发生过程中管理者应对突发事件的措施详细分析,以及对北京西站现有应急管理措施的总结,指出北京西站在应急管理中存在的主要问题。首先缺乏持续全面的风险评估工作,其次应对新的突发事件中准备不足,再次应急管理的中心环节应急响应过程中措施不得力,再次之是恢复阶段工作重点不突出。针对暴露出的问题给出提高西站应急管理能力的几点建议,建立长期动态的风险评估机制,加强铁路与地方的协调合作,加快对硬件设施的改造,以及完善应急预案和加强培训、应急演练等解决措施。