基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测

为确定化工园区突发事故的应急资源需求,提出了一种基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测方法。该方法主要由三部分组成:(1)基于案例推理的模型构建;(2)化工园区事故的案例描述;(3)基于人工神经网络的案例适应。最后,以石化园区火灾爆炸事故的应急资源需求预测验证该方法的有效性。研究表明,该方法可以实时地对化工园区应急资源需求进行预测,为化工园区的应急资源储备和配置提供支持。     

基于CBR的突发公共事件应急资源需求预测方法

应急资源需求预测是应急资源优化配置的前提和基础.针对应急资源需求预测的特点,提出了基于风险分析方法和案例推理技术(Case-based Reasoning,CBR)的应急资源需求预测方法.这种方法可以对应急资源的需求数量、需求质量和需求种类进行预测.最后,以一个预测案例来说明应急资源需求预测方法在实际中的应用过程.研究表明,这种方法可以满足应急的需要,为今后应急资源的储备、配置等提供依据,也可以为拟建的应急资源配置决策系统提供方法和模型支持.     

基于案例推理的突发环境事件应急决策模型

突发环境事件不确定性高、演化过程复杂,给企业及政府的应急工作带来很大的困难,故如何提高应急决策的质量,是相关应急工作的重点之一。为了增强以往经验的可用性,利用本体模型进行案例的存储,根据情景构成要素提取方法对情景进行多维的空间表达,在此基础上优化情景匹配算法,实现基于情景的应急决策。最后,通过突发环境事件实例应用,验证该方法能够快速建立实例与本体模型之间的关系,提高知识的可用性和共享性,实现情景的多维表达,进而满足“情景-应对”的应急决策要求。     

地震应急物资需求预测的模糊案例推理技术

地震发生后,及时迅速地应急响应是提升应急救援效率、降低震害损失的重要工作之一,而作为震后灾区应急响应前提和基础的物资需求预测是急需解决的关键问题之一。考虑到震后灾区信息贫乏的特点,引入1种基于模糊案例推理的震后物资需求预测技术。首先,在对已有案例库分析总结的基础上,提取若干影响震后物资需求的地震关键特征属性,通过引入模糊集合的概念,建立地震特征模糊集合;其次,计算新旧案例具体特征属性值对于模糊集的隶属度,为了度量新旧案例之间的相似程度,计算基于新旧案例特征属性权重的修正测度贴近度,贴近度最大者代表新旧案例之间的最佳匹配;最后,使用1个实际案例展示技术的具体应用过程,得到与新案例最近似的已有参考案例,为灾后应急救援提供借鉴。     

基于案例推理的地铁非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究

针对地铁非常规突发事故发生时,由于地下环境复杂且封闭,很难获取较全面、准确的事件信息等问题,非常规突发事件的地铁应急决策是一个复杂的过程。通过对地铁事件原则性机理进行分析和研究,得到地铁发生重大火灾事故情景分析的贝叶斯网络节点变量,借鉴CBR模型的思想,将基于结构和属性的双重情景检索的事故案例推理应急决策方法应用到地铁火灾非常规突发事件应急决策中,该方法排除了因属性值缺失造成相似度无法计算或计算有误的情况,可为地铁交通应急平台的后期建设提供理论支持     

不完备信息下基于案例推理的城市火灾应急决策方法研究

城市火灾发生突然,现场情况复杂,信息难以获取,为解决城市火灾中由于部分现场信息不完备造成的火灾扑救决策困难问题,利用案例推理方法,通过研究目标情景与源情景的结构相似度和全局相似度,找到与目标情景相似的情景,并根据以往相似情景的演化过程和解决措施,找到解决当前问题的思路和方法。研究结果表明:该方法可以较快地从案例情景库中找到相似的情景及相关解决措施,从而给目标情景决策提供参考和借鉴。     

移动式承压类特种设备应急平台研发

本文在搭建移动式承压类特种设备应急联动系统的背景下,重点开发移动式承压类特种设备应急平台.该平台是应急联动系统的核心控制部分,可实现危化品车辆管理、在线监测、事故分析、应急救援、统计分析、基础数据管理、系统管理等功能.应急联动系统融入“平战结合”理念,危险发生时,首先,平台从现场侦测装置自动采集数据;其次,启动事故分析和应急救援模块,必要时自动开启喷淋装置;第三,基于模型预测结果生成相应的应急救援方案;最后,发送到手持终端.该系统可以提升移动式承压类特种设备突发事件应急的及时性、科学性和有效性.     

重大事故应急计划要素及其制定程序

论述了重大事故应急计划组成及其十大要素 ;介绍了制定企业事故应急计划的程序方法 ;针对我国现状 ,提出了建立我国重大事故应急救援体系的建议     

Fused CFD-interpolation model for real-time prediction of hazardous gas dispersion in emergency rescue

Accidental releases of hazardous gases in chemical industries can pose great threats to public security. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is commonly applied to predict gas dispersion in complex structured areas. It can provide good accuracy but it is too time-consuming to be used in emergency response. To reduce computation time while keep acceptable accuracy, this paper proposes several fused CFD-interpolation models which combine CFD model with different interpolation methods. Spline, linear and nearest interpolation methods are used. A CFD simulations database is created ahead of time which can be quickly recalled for emergency usage and unknown situations can be predicted instantly by interpolation methods instead of time-consuming CFD model. Fused models were applied to a case study involving a hypothetical propane release with varying conditions and validated against CFD model. The validation shows that prediction accuracy of these fusion models is acceptable. Among these models, CFD-Spline interpolation model performs best. It is faster than CFD model by a factor of 75 and is potentially a good method to be applied to real-time prediction.     

Risk analysis in harbor environments using simulation

The paper proposes the development of an integrated interactive environment for risk analysis applied to harbor and maritime environments. This approach is very effective for properly designing the harbor and maritime infrastructure in terms of resources, structures and services for facing possible emergencies. The authors describe the general architecture of this tool and the integration with a specific simulation module devoted to an oil spill study and analysis, including experimental results and statistical validation.     

河北省水资源演化分析及预测

分析了自20世纪50年代以来河北省水资源环境的演变机制,并在此基础上,采用灰色系统方法预测了河北省水资源环境的发展趋势.分析表明,受全球气候变化影响,河北省年降水量整体呈下降趋势,且人为活动对水资源系统的扰动加剧,水资源开发利用程度极高;河北省地表水和地下水水质恶化,地下水类型发生变化,矿化度和硬度升高,重碳酸型和硫酸盐型地下水面积增加,河北平原浅层地下水水位呈下降趋势.灰色预测表明,未来河北省的降水将稍有减少,地下水开采量将持续增加,进一步破坏河北省脆弱的地下水系统;农业用水将持续下降,而生活用水将持续增加;河北省地表水和地下水水质继续恶化.地下水测井超标率居高不下,地表水超Ⅴ类河长所占比例持续增加,到2010年将达到63.62%,河北平原浅层地下水水位呈下降趋势,预计2010年浅层地下水平均埋深将达到19.92 m.     

Hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources for a chemical industrial parks concentrated area

Accidents in chemical industrial parks always cause fateful damage which can be reduced greatly by providing emergency resources sufficiently and timely. One effective way to enhance the emergency response capacity and agility is by pre-positioning of emergency resources for the potential accidents. The Yangtze River Delta of China is a large region where a large number of chemical industrial parks are concentrated. According to the distributing characteristics of demand points in this region, a mathematical model of hierarchical pre-positioning of emergency resources is proposed to ensure that accidents in all chemical industrial parks in this region can be responded timely and effectively. Considering accident domino effect and minimizing the total cost, the model gives optimal decisions of pre-positioning emergency resources, including the location and inventory of depots. The innovative hierarchical pre-positioning method greatly reduces the total cost in the premise of sufficient preparation for supplying emergency resources. Finally, in a visual graph of the Yangtze River Delta, the model is applied and the result shows its applicability.     

基于需求时间的隧道塌方应急资源分级调度研究

为打破对物资送达时间的绝对性限制,均衡关注关键考量因素,提出需求时间的概念,借助ArcGIS绘制需求时间服务范围;考虑救援需求的不确定性,在需求时间服务范围内建立模型对应急资源进行分级调度,并对关键路段及交叉口制定应急交通管控预案.模型包括2部分,在路径决策方面,建立带需求时间和畅通可靠度阈值约束的路径选择决策综合评价...     

重大事故隐患监控与应急预案的实用性研究

本项实用性研究是将高新技术手段应用于重点企业安全生产管理工作──重大事 故隐患监控、应急预定计划方案、安全管理绩效评价等方面的一项有益的探索与尝试。本项研究应 用了系统论、控制论、运筹学、决策学的学术内容，在方法论上综合了社会环境，人文因素对工程客体 变异过程的影响，同时在管理科学的实用意义上，又将对企业安全管理的文档整理、信息收集、数据 处理、自动警示、动态分析和预测、预防起到技术推动作用，是安全生产工作中的一项创造性工作。     

Consequence prediction for dust explosions involving interconnected vessels using computational fluid dynamics modeling

Combustible dust explosions continue to present a significant threat toward operating personnel and pneumatic conveyance equipment in a wide variety of processing industries. Following ignition of suspended fuel within a primary enclosure volume, propagation of flame and pressure fronts toward upstream or downstream interconnected enclosures can result in devastating secondary explosions if not impeded through an appropriate isolation mechanism. In such occurrences, an accelerated flame front may result in flame jet ignition within the secondary vessel, greatly increasing the overall explosion severity. Unlike an isolated deflagration event with quantifiable reduced pressures (vent sizing according to NFPA 68 guidance), oscillation of pressure between primary and secondary process vessels leads to uncertain overpressure effects. Dependent on details of the application such as relative enclosure volumes, relief area, fuel type, suspended concentration, duct size, and duct length, the maximum system pressure in both interconnected vessels can be unpredictable. This study proposes the use of FLame ACceleration Simulator (FLACS) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to provide reliable consequence predictions for specific case scenarios of dust deflagrations involving interconnected equipment. Required minimum supplement to the originally calculated relief area (A_v) was determined through iterative simulation, allowing for reduced explosion pressures (P_red) to be maintained below theoretical enclosure design strengths (P_es).     

Emergency evacuation model assuming leakage of toxic substances in a chemical plant

Preparedness of emergency evacuation for the leakage of toxic substances in chemical plants is very important in order to reduce damage. In order to implement an emergency evacuation properly, it is necessary to comprehensively and concretely determine the conditions of the leakage and atmospheric conditions and predict the consequences of the dispersed gases. Repeated training for emergencies is also essential. In order to realize effective evacuation, a prediction model of the evacuation area that anyone can use to obtain the same results both accurately and promptly is developed in the present study. The prediction model is designed such that the wind speed and atmospheric conditions are automatically set, and the leakage rate is the only input parameter, so that anyone can use the model easily. In addition, the model can also predict the atmospheric parameters for up to 3 h and can calculate the evacuation distance so that smooth evacuation can be achieved for changing atmospheric conditions. Finally, the evacuation area is defined by statistically analysed wind fluctuations, and a series of emergency evacuation measures is implemented.     

电力应急资源优化调配技术及其在电力企业的应用*

为帮助电力企业实现快速有效的应急响应及应急资源的合理利用,解决应急资源“盲调”问题,对应急资源需求预测业务、应急资源调配业务进行深入分析;基于案例推理技术、模糊评价技术,依托网络地理信息系统,优化电力应急资源调配程序,研发电力应急资源调配系统并将其应用于电力企业。结果表明:该系统可在电力企业开展突发事件应急处置时提出科学、合理的应急资源调配方案并跟踪执行,为进一步提升电力企业应急处置效率、完善电力企业应急体系提供技术支撑。     

浅析职业安全健康领域人力资源管理创新

我国职业安全健康领域人力资源管理存在管理理念落后,激励因素不足,培训开发力度不足等问题,制约我国职业安全健康事业的发展。为盘活现有的人力资源,实现职业安全健康领域人力资源创新管理,笔者认为一是要进行观念创新;二是要进行机制创新;三是要营造有利于职业安全健康领域人力资源管理创新的环境。本文就职业安全健康领域人力资源管理创新提出三点建议：（1）提升职业安全健康领域人力资源管理战略高度;（2）提高职业安全健康领域人力资源管理专业水平;（3）加强职业安全健康领域人力资源管理权力约束机制建设。     

海外石油工程项目社会安全应急资源管理实践与思考

随着国际形势的变化,海外社会安全突发事件在全球日益频繁的爆发,应急资源的合理配置和科学管理,成为海外石油工程项目应急管理的重中之重。本文以南苏丹独立为例,重点阐述中国石油天然气集团公司(以下简称集团公司)苏丹石油工程项目应急资源管理的需求分析、资源准备、优化配置和后续管理4个关键环节,总结了相关实践经验,剖析了存在的问题,并提出了社会安全应急资源管理的几点思考。     

各类突发事件应对异同及健全应急管理体系相关问题探讨

为了健全国家应急管理体系、提升应急管理能力,分析了各类突发事件在危险源性质、事件发生演化规律、事件应对具体措施及所需资源等方面的不同,以及在各类突发事件危险源防控基本理念、事件应对基本过程、应对资源保障模式、指挥协调模式、分级预警和响应模式等方面的相似性;在此基础上,探讨了在构建和完善应急管理体系时需要考虑的对象、目标、责任主体、运行机制和保障条件等问题。研究结果表明:应急管理是一个内涵和外延都十分广泛的综合性概念,具有涉及领域广、环节链条长、社会期望高、工作难度大等特点,健全应急管理体系并没有现成的模式或最优的方案,只有根据实际情况,深入研究和妥善解决应急管理体系各要素存在的问题,才能真正构建起符合国情的应急管理体系,并通过持续的应急能力建设,达成实现国家应急管理体系和能力现代化的目标。