Risk tolerance and pilot involvement in hazardous events and flight into adverse weather

INTRODUCTION: According to Lopes [Lopes, L.L. (1987). Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-295] tolerance of risk may be governed by sensitivity to either the opportunities for gain or threats of loss involved. Methods: In the initial study, qualified pilots were presented with 36 written flight scenarios that varied in the levels of opportunity and threat present. The pilots rated the likelihood that they would undertake each flight. Pilots were largely risk averse, as their ratings were all significantly influenced by threat. Results: The pilots whose ratings were significantly influenced by opportunity had been involved in more hazardous aviation incidents than the other pilots. In the final study, 32 qualified pilots completed both the risk tolerance measure and a simulated flight into adverse weather. The pilots who continued flying into adverse weather were less risk averse compared to the pilots who diverted. This further highlighted the link between risk tolerance and risk-taking, and suggested that some pilots may fly into adverse weather because of a greater tolerance of risk. Impact on Industry:The studies provide evidence that a measure of risk tolerance can predict potential accident involvement amongst general aviation pilots.     

A comparison of general aviation accidents involving airline pilots and instrument-rated private pilots

Introduction: The extremely low accident rate for U.S air carriers relative to that of general aviation (∼1 and ∼60/million flight hours respectively) partly reflects advanced airman certification, more demanding recurrency training and stringent operational regulations. However, whether such skillset/training/regulations translate into improved safety for airline pilots operating in the general aviation environment is unknown and the aim of this study. Methods: Accidents (1998–2017) involving airline pilots and instrument-rated private pilots (PPL-IFR) operating non-revenue light aircraft were identified from the NTSB accident database. An online survey informed general aviation flight exposure for both pilot cohorts. Statistics used proportion testing and Mann-Whitney U tests. Results: In degraded visibility, 0 and 40% (χ² p = 0.043) of fatal accidents involving airline and PPL-IFR airmen were due to in-flight loss-of-control, respectively. For landing accidents, airline pilots were under-represented for mishaps related to airspeed mismanagement (p = 0.036) relative to PPL-IFR but showed a dis-proportionate count (2X) of ground loss-of-directional control accidents (p = 0.009) the latter likely reflecting a preference for tail-wheel aircraft. The proportion of FAA rule violation-related mishaps by airline pilots was >2X (7 vs. 3%) that for PPL-IFR airmen. Moreover, airline pilots showed a disproportionate (χ² p = 0.021) count of flights below legal minimum altitudes. Not performing an official preflight weather briefing or intentionally operating in instrument conditions without an IFR flight plan represented 43% of airline pilot accidents involving FAA rule infractions. Conclusions: These findings inform safety deficiencies for: (a) airline pilots, landing/ground operations in tail-wheel aircraft and lack of 14CFR 91 familiarization regulations regarding minimum operating altitudes and (b) PPL-IFR airmen in-flight loss-of-control and poor landing speed management. Practical Applications: For PPL-IFR airmen, training/recurrency should focus on unusual attitude recovery and managing approach speeds. Airline pilots should seek additional instructional time regarding landing tail-wheel aircraft and become familiar with 14CFR 91 rules covering minimum altitudes.     

基于生物数学模型的飞行疲劳预测建模与仿真

为了合理调整机组排班计划来减少飞行疲劳隐患,重点分析与排班相关的时间因素对飞行疲劳的影响,将飞行员在一天中的飞行疲劳分解为执勤期和休息期的两个分量,然后基于生物数学模型对其进行量化,建立在机组排班过程中预测飞行员飞行疲劳的数学模型。以东航A330机队部分飞行员的任务计划为例进行仿真分析,结果表明,在目标时间段内延长飞行员的连续执勤时间、增加任务总数以及缩短相邻任务间的休息时间,均会使飞行员的疲劳值增加。因此,为了降低飞行疲劳风险,机组在制定排班计划时,应适当减少飞行员的连续执勤时间,酌情增加相邻任务间的休息时间。     

基于k-SC聚类的飞行操作模式及危险性分析

为挖掘飞行数据中的高危险性操作模式,采用k-SC时间序列聚类算法,并基于K-W检验分析聚类结果与不安全事件之间的关系。以特定条件下某机队着陆阶段的驾驶杆操作数据和长着陆事件为例进行模型验证。结果表明:机队有5类不同的驾驶杆操作模式;不同操作模式的着陆平飘距离分布具有显著性差异,且长着陆的危险性最高可达68.18%。研究结果可为提升航空公司飞行员操作能力、分析飞行员操作特性及其他不安全事件（如重着陆、擦机尾等）提供理论参考。     

某航空公司飞行员飞行认知能力状况调查与分析

飞行员作为一项特殊职业,从客观上要求飞行员具备良好认知能力。从飞行认知能力入手对某航空公司的37名飞行员进行了飞行综合素质测试,分析年龄、职位、飞行时间和疲劳等因素对某航空公司飞行员飞行认知能力的影响。测试结果表明某航空公司飞行员在飞行认知能力上整体表现较好,但年龄、工作时间和疲劳等对飞行认知能力有所影响。建议航空公司对飞行员群体进行大规模测试,制定相应的培训计划并加强管理保障措施,对飞行员人为差错进行主动的风险管理,为民航飞行员飞行综合素质评估提供数据支持,为科学、合理的机组搭配和排班提供依据,对改善飞行安全、提高安全管理水平具有重要意义。     

Pilot see,pilot do: Examining the predictors of pilots’ risk management behaviour

Decision-making under uncertainty, known as risk management, is common in many professions including medicine and the military. Within general aviation, it is a skill that pilots are largely expected to acquire through experience. This study sought to determine if there are known markers (i.e., attitude and risk perception) and or personal characteristics (i.e., flight experience and age) that predict the acquisition and utilization of this skill. Fifty-six participants were presented with a risky flight which involved searching for a wayward parachutist with minimal fuel on board their aircraft. A clear distinction in terms of ‘risk perception’ was evident between those pilots who elected to undertake the risky flight (36 participants) and those pilots who did not (20 participants). There was also evidence of attitudinal and demographic differences between the two groups. The results have implications for the selection and training of pilots.     

The impact of risk tolerance,risk perception and hazardous attitude on safety operation among airline pilots in China

The present study integrates personality approach and social cognition approach to investigate the relationships between risk tolerance, risk perception, hazardous attitude and safety operation behavior in order to understand the mechanisms underlying pilots’ safety operation behavior in aviation. The study sample consisted of 118 commercial airline pilots from China Southern Airlines Ltd. The results show risk tolerance displays an indirect effect on safety operation behavior through influencing hazardous attitude; risk perception has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between risk tolerance and safety operation behavior. Based on the above, it can be concluded that the low risk tolerance primarily influences safety operation behavior indirectly through affecting hazardous attitude. With risk perception increasing, the negative effects of risk tolerance on safety operation behavior are gradually reduced. Practical implications for aviation safety campaigns are also discussed.     

HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制研究

为了解决平视显示器（Head Up Display,HUD）飞行中的注意资源分配问题，基于飞行模拟器，设计双作业飞行任务开展相关研究。基于事件相关电位（Event Related Potential，ERP）技术，选取行为绩效和P300成分为评价指标，采用oddball模式，在双作业飞行任务条件下开展实验研究。结果表明:随主任务难度的增加，主、辅任务的作业绩效均显著下降，被试者对HUD上异常信息的正确操作率降低，且反应时间延长；随主任务难度的增加，由辅任务所诱发的P300的波幅显著降低。在实验结果的基础上，最终提出了HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制。     

基于认知可靠性的飞行差错影响因素体系的构建

提高飞行员认知可靠性可以有效降低飞行差错发生概率。合理确定飞行差错影响因素有利于客观、快速地评估飞行差错,提高飞行中的安全性。基于人的认知可靠性建立P-D-A-F飞行认知可靠性模型分析飞行差错发生机理;并结合对人的认知可靠性影响因素分析结果,构建以心理、生理、外部为主要影响因素的飞行差错影响因素体系;运用Delphi法确定体系包含40个影响因子,并提出影响因子以独立或者联合影响的方式影响飞行差错。该影响因素体系可以应用于飞行差错分析与评估。     

Effects of controller-pilot communication medium,flight phase and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness

This study explores the effects of communication medium, flight phase, and the role in the cockpit on pilots’ workload and situation awareness. Eight pilots with the experience of Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLCs) participated in this simulated experiment. Two types of communication medium (voice and datalink), three types of flight phase (departure, cruise, and arrival), and two types of role (pilot flying and pilot non-flying) were investigated in the experiment. The results indicated that flight phase is a significant factor and cruise is the most suitable phase for datalink use on pilots’ acceptance, workload, and situation awareness performance. Both medium and role were not the significant factors. Since there is no significant difference on medium when no extra tasks and interferences involved in a normal flight, that the use of CPDLC can be justified during all phases of a no-event flight. In addition, the results of usability indicated that the simulated CPDLC with command selection functions proposed in this study provides good utility for the participants. In order to use the CPDLC for all phases of flight in the future, adding more command selection functions in place of typing messages by pilots and accommodating appropriate interfaces for different phases are recommended to enhance the usability of the CPDLC unit.     

我国民航飞行员个性特征及影响因素研究

采用卡特尔16种个性因素量表(16PF)对我国民航飞行员的个性特征进行测试与分析,为探讨与飞行员操作特征之间的联系,保证飞行安全提供依据。运用基本数据统计分析、单一样本T检验、因素分析、多变量方差分析等方法对我国民航飞行员的个性特征进行分析。统计分析结果表明飞行员所具有的基本个性特征有稳定性、恃强性、兴奋性、有恒性和敢为性以及敏感性、怀疑性和独立性。年龄、职务和飞行时间对飞行员的个性特征有显著性影响。利用因素分析提取的7种主要因素,包含了飞行员较为全面的个性特征,且具有一定的客观性和代表性。     

基于综合素质的飞行员安全风险评价模型的构建

如何预防由飞行员自身原因所导致的航空事故,一直是全球航空系统乃至全球性公共安全重大课题。通过对飞行员综合素质,即飞行员的认知能力、人格特征以及心理健康状况的研究,分析整理出了影响飞行员飞行安全的关键素质,基于这些素质指标,构建出飞行员风险评价模型,为航空安全系统性、区域性保障提供参考。     

基于同时仪表进近的航空器在特情下的碰撞风险模型研究

同时仪表进近模式可有效提高平行跑道的容量,但发生特情时会造成极为严重的后果,因此研究在特殊情况下基于同时仪表进近模式的航空器碰撞风险具有重要意义。首先,与首都机场进近管制员沟通,总结了4种可能会发生的特情,其次,建立基于位置误差概率的同时仪表进近模式下的航空器在特殊情况下的碰撞风险模型,模型最关键的位置误差和速度参数根据采集的实际运行航空器航迹的ADS-B数据得到,其他参数为国际民航推荐值或本地区一线管制员的经验值,然后运用MATLAB软件进行仿真,得出发生特情时每个时刻的碰撞风险,从而得出整个过程碰撞风险的变化趋势。     

基于模糊层次分析法的编队内碰撞风险评价模型研究

编队内碰撞是编队飞行最大的安全威胁。为解决编队飞行灵活性与编队飞行安全的矛盾,建立了编队内各机碰撞风险评价模型指标体系,使用模糊互补判断矩阵确定了各指标的碰撞权重,实现了编队内各机碰撞的风险评估。以空军航空兵某部一架机型G与一架机型H混合双机编队为例进行了实证研究,结果表明,该模型简便易操作,可提高编队飞行训练效率。     

基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析*

为了预防民航不安全事件的发生,应用机组威胁与差错管理（TEM）模型分析2014—2020年民航事故/征候的航空安全报告资料,提取事件里存在于民航运行风险中潜在的情况、威胁、机组差错等因素,通过改进的关联规则方法挖掘其中的关联关系,包括挖掘与事件严重程度有关的因素,找到TEM模型中的关键因素和影响航空器结束状态的致因因素,并进行关联网络图分析。研究结果表明:手动操纵/飞行控制差错、缺少/不足的飞行培训和安全管理、飞行员之间沟通差错与程序执行错误是造成事故/征候的显著因素;关联规则能够有效利用航空安全报告信息,通过定量的方法挖掘事故/征候的特征,找到影响民航不安全事件的强关联因素,为民航安全管理人员提供决策依据。     

飞机驾驶舱人机几何适配性评价指标研究

飞机驾驶舱人机几何适配性评价对于保障人机效能的充分发挥和飞行安全至关重要。针对一些评价指标制定了相关标准和规范,但未形成一套可操作的指标体系。针对该问题,提出采用改进德尔菲法建立飞机驾驶舱人机几何适配性评价指标体系。通过对现有相关标准、规范和技术数据进行分析研究,初步确定出38个评价指标。针对确定的指标,聘请了飞过多种型号飞机的23名现役有经验飞行员作为专家咨询人员进行了两轮咨询,在对咨询结果进行统计处理的基础上,筛选出了21个评价指标,该指标体系的建立为飞机驾驶舱人机几何适配性综合评价奠定了基础,也可为航空工程部门的评价工作提供科学依据,并有一定的指导作用和实用价值。     

The influence of trait mindfulness on incident involvement among Chinese airline pilots: The role of risk perception and flight experience

Introduction The primary objective of this study is to investigate the relationships between trait mindfulness, risk perception, flight experience, and incident involvement among Chinese airline pilots. Method The study used a sample consisting of 295 commercial airline pilots from China Southern Airlines Ltd. Results The results show that trait mindfulness has a direct and negative effect on airline pilots' incident involvement, and an indirect effect on incident involvement through influencing risk perception. Flight experience was also found to strengthen the negative and direct effect of trait mindfulness on incident involvement. Practical applications The practical implications of the study include recommendations as to injury prevention efforts in incident involvement. Future research directions are also discussed.     

起飞质量数据输入错误的安全风险分析

为了提高民用航空安全水平,降低起飞质量数据输入错误的风险概率,针对近年来因起飞质量数据输入错误引发的不安全事件,重点探讨分析起飞质量和飞机性能之间的关系。输入错误的起飞质量数据不仅会对飞机性能造成影响,还会严重威胁飞行安全;当输入的起飞质量数据比实际重量少时,可能会造成飞机提前失速、机动能力下降以及影响飞机起飞滑跑距离等。为避免类似不安全事件的发生,给出了预防起飞质量数据输入错误的建议和对策。     

飞行认知能力的测量方案设计及模型研究

为了对飞行员飞行认知能力水平提供评价依据,进行飞行认知能力测量方案设计。根据飞行员的驾驶特征以及操作行为提出6项测量指标,分别为空间定位能力、空间定向能力、空间想象能力、信息获取能力、信息加工能力和学习能力;根据测量指标和认知能力测试量表功能间的对应关系,设计包括6项认知测验的测量方案。随后开展测量并对结果进行分析,提取3个主因子分别命名为空间认知能力、信息管理能力和学习能力,从而建立起二阶多维度的认知能力结构模型。该模型可应用于飞行认知能力的测评工作。     

基于蒙特卡洛方法的着陆擦机尾风险预测

为解决对航班和机队着陆时擦机尾风险客观预测问题，基于飞行QAR数据和蒙特卡洛模拟方法，建立擦机尾风险预测模型，将某航空公司Boeing737-800机队的380套QAR数据作为样本数据，运用MATLAB编程进行5 000次模拟抽样试验，得到不同机队着陆时俯仰角的分布和擦机尾风险预测曲线。研究结果表明:当着陆俯仰角大于4.5°时，机队2擦机尾风险较大；运用蒙特卡洛模拟预测的飞机着陆俯仰角更为稳定和准确。该模型可进一步软件化，为航空公司的擦机尾超限事件管理提供可靠性指标参考，实现对飞行员操作风险的动态管理。