Robustness of the western United States power grid under edge attack strategies due to cascading failures

Power systems are the basic support of modern infrastructures and protecting them from random failures or intentional attacks is an active topic of research in safety science. This paper is motivated by the following two related problems about cascading failures on power grids: efficient edge attack strategies and lower cost protections on edges. Applying the recent cascading model by adopting a local load redistribution rule, where the initial load of an edge ij is (k_ik_j)^θ with k_i and k_j being the degrees of the nodes connected by the edge, we investigate the performance of the power grid of the western United States subject to three intentional attacks. Simulation results show that the effects of different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures have close relations with the tunable parameter θ. Particularly, the attack on the edges with the lower load in the case of θ < 1.4 can result in larger cascading failures than the one on the edges with the higher load. In addition, compared with the other two attacks, a new attack, i.e., removing the edges with the smallest proportion between the total capacities of the neighboring edges of and the capacity of the attacked edge, usually are prone to trigger cascading failures over the US power grid. Our findings will be not only helpful to protect the key edges selected effectively to avoid cascading-failure-induced disasters, but also useful in the design of high-robustness and low-cost infrastructure networks.     

Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid

The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. Adopting the initial load of a node j to be L_j=[k_j(Σ_mΓjk_m)]^α with k_j and Γ_j being the degree of the node j and the set of its neighboring nodes, respectively, where α is a tunable parameter and governs the strength of the initial load of a node, we investigate the response of the US power grid under two attacks during the cascading propagation. In the case of α<0.7, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks in the case of α=0.7 may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.     

Long-term prediction model of rockburst in underground openings using heuristic algorithms and support vector machines

Rockburst possibility prediction is an important activity in many underground openings design and construction as well as mining production. Due to the complex features of rockburst hazard assessment systems, such as multivariables, strong coupling and strong interference, this study employs support vector machines (SVMs) for the determination of classification of long-term rockburst for underground openings. SVMs is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning algorithms, uses classification technique by introducing radial basis function (RBF) kernel function. The inputs of models are buried depth H, rocks’ maximum tangential stress σ_θ, rocks’ uniaxial compressive strength σ_c, rocks’ uniaxial tensile strength σ_t, stress coefficient σ_θ/σ_c, rock brittleness coefficient σ_c/σ_t and elastic energy index W_et. In order to improve predictive accuracy and generalization ability, the heuristic algorithms of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) are adopted to automatically determine the optimal hyper-parameters for SVMs. The performance of hybrid models (GA + SVMs = GA-SVMs) and (PSO + SVMs = PSO-SVMs) have been compared with the grid search method of support vector machines (GSM-SVMs) model and the experimental values. It also gives variance of predicted data. A rockburst dataset, which consists of 132 samples, was employed to evaluate the current method for predicting rockburst grade, and the good results of overall success rate were obtained. The results indicated that the heuristic algorithms of GA and PSO can speed up SVMs parameter optimization search, the proposed method is robust model and might hold a high potential to become a useful tool in rockburst prediction research.     

Prediction of minimum ignition energy of aerosols using flame kernel modeling combined with flame front propagation theory

Flammable aerosols have created many fire and explosion hazards in the process industry, but the flammability of aerosols has not been fully understood. The minimum ignition energy has been widely used as an indicator for flammability of combustible mixtures, but the amount of experimental data on the minimum ignition energy of aerosols is very limited. In this work, the minimum ignition energy of tetralin aerosols is predicted using an integrated model. The model applies the flame front propagation theory in aerosol systems to the growth of the flame kernel, which was created during the spark discharge in the ignition process. The aerosol minimum ignition energy was defined as the minimum level of energy in the initial flame kernel to maintain the kernel temperature above the minimum ignition temperature of 1073 K specific for tetralin aerosols during the kernel growth. The minimum ignition energy obtained in the model is influenced by the fuel-air equivalence ratio and the size of the aerosol droplets. For tetralin aerosols of 40 μm diameter, E_min decreases significantly from 0.32 mJ to 4.3 × 10 e⁻³ mJ when the equivalence ratio rises from 0.57 to 1.0. For tetralin aerosols of 0.57 equivalence ratio, E_min increases from as 0.09 mJ to 0.32 mJ when the droplet diameter rises from 10 μm to 60 μm. The trends are in agreement with previous experimental observations. The method used in current work has the potential to prediction of the minimum ignition energy of aerosol.     

Green thermal analysis for predicting thermal hazard of storage and transportation safety for tert-butyl peroxybenzoate

Liquid organic peroxides, such as tert-butyl peroxybenzoate (TBPB), have been widely employed in the petrifaction industry as a polymerization formation agent. This study investigated the thermokinetic parameters of TBPB by isothermal kinetic algorithms and non-isothermal kinetic equations, using thermal activity monitor III (TAM III) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), respectively. Simulations of 0.5 L, 25 kg, 55 gallon, and 400 kg reactors in liquid thermal explosion models were performed and compared to the results in the literature. A green thermal analysis was developed for a reactor containing TBPB to prevent pollution and reduce the energy consumption by thermal decomposition. It is based on the thermal hazard properties, such as the heat of decomposition (ΔH_d), activation energy (E_a), self-accelerating decomposition temperature (SADT), control temperature (CT), emergency temperature (ET), and critical temperature (TCR). From the experimental results, the optimal conditions to avoid violent runaway reactions during the storage and transportation of TBPB were determined.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Influence of super-absorbent polymer on the growth rate of gas hydrate

The growth rate of hydrate and morphology of methane hydrate formation were studied in a visual pressure cell at 5.5 MPa. The gas hydrate formation was carried out (coal mine methane (CMM) + tetrahydrofuran (THF) + sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) + H₂O) with and without SAP. Experimental data on the hydrate growth rate and induction time were obtained for three different CMM samples. The influence of SAP on hydrate growth rate was determined. Results showed that after the addition of SAP, with the methane concentration increased in CMM, the induction time was reduced by 9 min, 10 min and 3 min, and the growth rate was shortened by 0.56 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹, 0.53 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹ and 1.42 × 10⁻⁶/m³ min⁻¹, respectively. This study could be useful for the recovery of methane from CMM by forming hydrate in the chemical and mining industry.     

The relationship between recruitment processes, familiarity, trust, perceived risk and safety

Introduction and Method

Participants′ perceptions of the safety-related aspects of their organization′s recruitment processes were examined, as were their perceptions of safety aspects associated with new recruits.

Results

One hundred and fifty-four professional fire fighters indicated the trust they held in the safety-related aspects of their organizations′ selection and pre-start training. Perceived trust in pre-start training was negatively correlated (r = -.24, p < .01) with the risk associated with new recruits, and positively correlated (r = .50, p < .01) with ratings of trust in recruits to immediately work safely. Furthermore, trust in recruits to immediately work safely was negatively correlated (r = -.21, p < .01) with crews′ safety behavior toward recruits.

Conclusions

These results are interpreted as particularly dangerous for workers, as new recruits lack familiarity with aspects of their new workplace that cannot be addressed by either selection or pre-start training, making them a risk.

Impact on Industry

Organizations should actively identify new recruits, and encourage existing team members not to immediately trust new recruits to work safely.     

Behavior and lifestyle characteristics of male Kuwaiti drivers

Introduction: The high traffic accident risk among young drivers is a well-known and well-documented fact in most countries. Lifestyle has proven to affect driving behavior as well as accident risk. This study covers the lifestyle component of the problems related to young male Kuwaiti drivers’ accident risk. Methods: The purpose of the study is to measure the relationship between lifestyle and accident risk. Lifestyle is measured through a questionnaire, where 302 male Kuwaiti drivers (mean age = 28 years; range 25-35 years) answer 39 questions related to behavioral and social factors, road conditions, police enforcement, and life satisfaction. They also report their involvement in accidents and traffic violations. Results: The questionnaire's validity and reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.7) were achieved. Principal component analysis reduced the 39 items on the questionnaire to 5 factors. Inadequate police enforcement is strongly correlated (r = 0.862) to accident risk and traffic violations and is thus considered the best predictor of traffic accidents in Kuwait. Impact on Industry: As driving-related incidents (on-the-job and off-the-job) are a significant source of fatalities and lost-work-days, the study points to the importance of considering cultural factors in the design of comprehensive safety programs for industry.     

A theoretical model for the prediction of the minimum ignition energy of dust clouds

In this study, a physical model of the dust cloud ignition process is developed for both cylindrical coordinates with a straight-line shaped ignition source and spherical coordinates with a point shaped ignition source. Using this model, a numerical algorithm for the calculation of the minimum ignition energy (MIE) is established and validated. This algorithm can evaluate MIEs of dusts and their mixtures with different dust concentrations and particle sizes. Although the average calculated cylindrical MIE (MIE_cylindrical) of the studied dusts only amounts to 63.9% of the average experimental MIE value due to reasons including high idealization of the numerical model and possible energy losses in the experimental tests, the algorithm with cylindrical coordinates correctly predicts the experimental MIE variation trends against particle diameter and dust concentration. There is a power function relationship between the MIE and particle diameter of the type MIE ∝ d_p^k with k being approximately 2 for cylindrical coordinates and 3 for spherical coordinates. Moreover, as dust concentration increases MIE(conc) first drops because of the decreasing average distance between particles and, at fuel-lean concentrations the increasing dust cloud combustion heat; however, after the dust concentration rises beyond a certain value, MIE(conc) starts to increase as a result of the increasingly significant heat sink effect from the particles and, at fuel-rich concentrations the no longer increasing dust cloud combustion heat.     

Required hours of practice for learner drivers: A comparison between two Australian jurisdictions

Problem

This study considers whether requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours while on a learner license affects the amount of hours of supervised practice that they undertake. It compares the amount of practice that learners in Queensland and New South Wales report undertaking. At the time the study was conducted, learner drivers in New South Wales were required to complete 50 hours of supervised practice while those from Queensland were not.

Method

Participants were approached outside driver licensing centers after they had just completed their practical driving test to obtain their provisional (intermediate) license. Those agreeing to participate were interviewed over the phone later and asked a range of questions to obtain information including socio-demographic details and amount of supervised practice completed.

Results

There was a significant difference in the amount of practice that learners reported undertaking. Participants from New South Wales reported completing a significantly greater amount of practice (M = 73.3 hours, sd = 29.12 hours) on their learner license than those from Queensland (M = 64.1 hours, sd = 51.05 hours). However, the distribution of hours of practice among the Queensland participants was bimodal in nature. Participants from Queensland reported either completing much less or much more practice than the New South Wales average.

Summary

While it appears that the requirement that learner drivers complete a set number of hours may increase the average amount of hours of practice obtained, it may also serve to discourage drivers from obtaining additional practice, over and above the required hours.

Impact on Industry

The results of this study suggest that the implications of requiring learner drivers to complete a set number of hours of supervised practice are complex. In some cases, policy makers may inadvertently limit the amount of hours learners obtain to the mandated amount rather than encouraging them to obtain as much practice as possible.     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

Development of new footwear sole surface pattern for prevention of slip-related falls

In this study, a new rubber surface pattern for a footwear sole was developed to prevent slip-related falls. This pattern shows a high static coefficient of friction (SCOF) and a high dynamic coefficient of friction (DCOF) when sliding against a liquid contaminated surface. A hybrid rubber block, in which a rubber block with a rough surface (Ra = 30.4 μm) was sandwiched between two rubber blocks with smooth surfaces (Ra = 0.98 μm), was prepared. The ratio of the rough surface area to the whole rubber block surface area r was 0%, 30%, 50%, 80%, and 100%. The coefficient of friction of the rubber blocks was measured when sliding against a stainless steel plate with Ra of 0.09 μm contaminated with a 90% aqueous solution of glycerol. While the SCOF increased with an increase of the rough surface area ratio r, the DCOF during steady-state sliding decreased with an increase of the rough surface area ratio r. The rough surface area ratio of 50% achieved a SCOF value around 0.5 or more and a DCOF value greater than 0.5. Furthermore, the difference in the value of the SCOF and DCOF was the smallest for the rubber block with r of 50%. The results indicated that the rubber block with r of 50% would be applicable to a footwear sole surface pattern to prevent slip and fall accidents on contaminated surfaces.     

Predicting safety culture: the roles of employer, operations manager and safety professional

Introduction: This study explores predictive factors in safety culture. Method: In 2008, a sample 939 employees was drawn from 22 departments of a telecoms firm in five regions in central Taiwan. The sample completed a questionnaire containing four scales: the employer safety leadership scale, the operations manager safety leadership scale, the safety professional safety leadership scale, and the safety culture scale. The sample was then randomly split into two subsamples. One subsample was used for measures development, one for the empirical study. Results: A stepwise regression analysis found four factors with a significant impact on safety culture (R² = 0.337): safety informing by operations managers; safety caring by employers; and safety coordination and safety regulation by safety professionals. Safety informing by operations managers (ß = 0.213) was by far the most significant predictive factor. Impact on industry: The findings of this study provide a framework for promoting a positive safety culture at the group level.     

The extreme carbon dioxide outburst at the Menzengraben potash mine 7 July 1953

Carbon dioxide is an asphyxiant and an irritant gas. An extreme outburst of carbon dioxide took place 7 July 1953 in a potash mine in the former East Germany. During 25 min, a large amount of CO₂ was blown out of the mine shaft with great force. It was wind still and concentrated CO₂ accumulated in a valley leading to multiple asphyxiation casualties. Based on a review of concentration-response relationships, the location of victims, and other information, it is concluded that concentrations of 10-30% carbon dioxide may have occurred 450 m from the point of release for at least 45 min. It is concluded that 1100-3900 tonnes of CO₂ were blown out of the mine shaft, possibly with intensities around 4 tonnes/s. It is also concluded that the large majority of the gas escaped as a near-vertical high-velocity jet with only little loss of momentum due to impingement. The release was modelled using PHAST. Output from the model is inconsistent with the asphyxiation harm observed. The high-momentum release is predicted to disperse safely and never reach the ground. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) schemes will involve handling and transportation of unprecedented quantities of CO₂. Case histories to date include sudden releases of CO₂ of up to 50 tonnes only, far too small to provide a suitable empirical perspective on predicted hazard distances for CCS projects. The 1953 outburst contributes to filling this gap.     

Thermal hazard accident investigation of hydrogen peroxide mixing with propanone employing calorimetric approaches

Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), historically, due to its broad applications in the chemical industries, has caused many serious fires and explosions around the world. Its thermal hazards may also be incurred by an incompatible reaction with other chemicals, and a runaway reaction may be induced in the last stage. This study applied thermal analytical methods to explore the H₂O₂ leading to these accidents by incompatibility and to discuss what might be formed by the upset situations. Thermal hazard analysis contained a solvent, propanone (CH₃COCH₃, so-called acetone), which was deliberately selected to mix with H₂O₂ for investigating the degree of thermal hazard. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2) were employed to evaluate the thermal hazard of H₂O₂. The results indicated that H₂O₂ is highly hazardous while mixed with propanone, as a potential contaminant. The time to maximum rate (TMR) was used as emergency response time in the chemical industries. Therefore, TMR of H₂O₂ was calculated to be 70 min for runaway reaction (after T₀) and TMR of H₂O₂/propanone was discovered to be 27 min only. Fire and explosion hazards could be successfully lessened if the safety-related data are properly imbedded into manufacturing processes.     

Research and practice on fluctuation water injection technology at low permeability coal seam

In order to solve the problem of poor affusion effect on low permeability coal seam, the paper analyzes the micro process of the coal seam water infusion in wetting coal and determines the main factors affecting coal seam water infusion. The permeability of the NO.3 coal seam in east working face of Xingcun coal mine by MTS815.03 servo-controlled rock mechanical test system has been tested. Results show that when the peak stress in coal sample specimens reaches 48.53 MPa, permeability ranges from 0.5158 to 2.9576 × 10⁻⁸ Darcy, and it means that the coal seam is low in permeability and difficult in water injection. Based on the characteristics of low permeability and geostress situation, efficient fluctuation water injection technology with permeable agent and relevant process parameters have been designed. The surface tension of the permeable agent developed here is 31.18 m N/m when mass concentration reaches 0.05%. The permeable agent can permeate into 2 cm thick coal layer completely in 10 s, thus improving the wettability of water effectively and the water injection pressure fluctuates between 7 MPa and 25 MPa. The application of the technique in the 3rd coal seam in east working face of Xingcun coal mine shows not only single-arch injection experienced a significant increase on average, from no more than 10 m³ to 63.3886 m³, but also the effect of dust fall, cooling and rock burst prevention is remarkable.     

The thermal hazard evaluation of 1,1-di (tert-butylperoxy) cyclohexane by DSC using non-isothermal and isothermal-kinetic simulations

1,1-Di (tert-butylperoxy) cyclohexane (DTBPH) has been widely employed in the chemical industry. Unfortunately, organic peroxides have been involved in many serious fires and explosions in manufacturing processes, storage, and transportation. This study investigated the thermokinetic parameters by isothermal kinetic and non-isothermal-kinetic simulation, using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) tests. DSC was applied to assess the kinetic parameters, such as kinetic model, frequency factor (ln k₀), activation energy (E_a), reaction order, and heat of reaction (ΔH_d). Comparisons of non-isothermal and isothermal-kinetic model simulation led to a beneficial kinetic model of thermal decomposition to predict the thermal hazard of DTBPH. Simulations of a 0.5 L Dewar vessel and 25 kg barrel commercial package in liquid thermal explosion models were performed and compared to the results in the literature. From the results, the optimal conditions for use of DTBPH to avoid violent runaway reactions during the storage and transportation were determined. This study established the features of thermal decomposition that could be executed as a reduction of energy potential and storage conditions in view of loss prevention.