Transport risk modeling for hazardous chemical transport Companies—A case study in China

Traffic accidents of hazardous chemical transport vehicles strongly correlate with the operation and management level of road transport companies. An accurate risk assessment of these transport companies will play a critical role in improving their management and supervision and in turn the overall safety of roadways, property, and most importantly people's lives. Therefore, this study constructs a logistic regression scorecard model to evaluate transport risk of hazardous chemical transport companies and evaluates it using a case study in China. This study first selected 16 indicators from the dimensions of driver behaviors, driving performance, dangerous goods and company business operation to construct company user portraits. Next, a K-means++ algorithm was used to cluster the data samples of the companies on a monthly basis. On this basis, a scorecard was constructed based on a logistic regression scorecard model to realize and visualize the monthly risk portrait of companies. The constructed scorecard predicted transport risk of companies accurately. The results show that the more complex the types of dangerous goods transported, the higher the risk value of the company in the dangerous goods index. Moreover, for transport companies, the driver behaviors and driving performance on their trips are closely related to their business risk. In a practical application, the proposed scorecard can realize the dynamic risk monitoring of transport companies and enable managers and supervision departments to clarify where the risk is from. The transport companies can also carry out safety training and rectification for drivers and operations to reduce the occurrence of hazardous materials-related traffic accidents.     

城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究

针对城市应急管理的特点,提出了一种城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法。在ARAMIS方法的基础上,对严重度计算进行了修订,引入了急性暴露指南（AEGL）标准对事故后果进行分区;同时,增加了与应急救援效率相关的指标进行风险目标的脆弱性评估;利用GIS技术,对严重度和脆弱性进行叠加分析,绘制出城市重大危险源区域风险地图。以液氨储罐毒气泄漏事故为例,对文中提出的方法进行了验证。实例分析表明,此方法为快速获取城市重大危险源区域风险的空间分布格局提供了新思路,对于降低城市突发环境污染事故的影响和辅助决策者制定科学的城市公共安全管理决策具有一定的现实意义。     

How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

Safety performance measurement in collectivized oil companies in China: Contribution of leading indicators to lagging indicators

With the collectivization of the Chinese oil industry, oil companies have been expanding in size. However, the intensified differences in the safety performance of subsidiaries have severely hindered the collaborative management of the headquarters. Understanding the safety status of each member is urgent for parent companies and their subsidiaries to identify gaps and make improvements. A unified set of safety performance indicators and a practical measurement tool are essential for the Chinese oil industry. Hence, this study identified a set of safety performance indicators encompassing both leading and lagging indicators using data envelopment analysis (DEA) and entropy weight method (EWM) to reveal the critical factors affecting the safety performance of the oil industry. A total of 300 front-line workers from eight subsidiaries of an oil company participated in the survey. The identified indicators were preliminarily weighted using EWM. Then, DEA was employed to measure the safety performance of the eight subsidiaries, demonstrating that management commitment was the most crucial factor in distinguishing safety performance; safety culture was more differentiated than risk management. Safety performance was not entirely positively correlated with safety investments, but the reasonable allocation of safety resources played a vital role. In addition, the weaknesses in each subsidiary's safety management were identified, and the quantitative effects of each leading indicator on safety performance were obtained.     

油气长输管道作业分级定量风险评价方法研究及应用

为客观掌握油气管道生产运营岗位主要作业风险,实现油气长输管道企业作业风险管理,提出一种作业分级定量风险评价方法。首先,辨识油气管道系统主要危险作业类型和引起作业事故的危险有害因素;然后由作业分级法确定事故发生的可能性与严重性;最后建立基于作业分级的风险矩阵,得到各作业活动的风险级别。将该方法应用于某管道公司,以该公司生产区内部高处作业为例,对作业过程中的危险有害因素进行识别与评价,得出高处作业过程中各步骤的风险程度。结果表明该评价方法具有一定的可操作性,可反映各类危险作业过程中的风险程度,为后期有针对性的风险控制提供指导,有助于公司的风险管理。     

Risk indicators for major hazards on offshore installations

Major hazards risk indicators are proposed for offshore installations, based on what has been used by the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway for the Risk Level approach in the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry. Since 2002 also leading indicators are used, in the sense that indicators for barrier performance are included together with the lagging indicators. There are individual indicators for a number of barrier functions, including fire and gas detection, a number of safety valves, active fire protection and mustering of personnel. The performance of the leading indicators during several years of data collection as well as lessons learned from the project are discussed. This is followed by a review of how indicators may be used by individual companies, and how the lessons may be utilised by individual companies to develop risk indicators for individual installations as well as company wide indicators.     

基于改进层次分析法的火灾高危单位消防安全评估

开展消防安全评估对提升火灾高危单位消防安全管理水平和维护公共安全具有重要意义。根据火灾高危单位的特点,给出了消防安全评估指标体系,包括建筑防火、消防设备设施和消防安全管理3项一级指标,建筑整体布局、安全疏散系统、消防给水系统、自动灭火系统、防排烟系统、电气防火系统、其他设备及器材、日常管理、应急制度及培训教育、电器燃气消防器材管理10项二级指标,建筑类别、安全出口、室外消防水、自动喷水灭火系统、风机、消防电源及其配电、防火门窗、消防安全管理制度、应急制度、电器管理等54项三级指标。在现场调研和理论分析的基础上,利用改进的层次分析法计算得到某火灾高危单位消防安全评估指标体系各指标的权重,建立了火灾高危单位消防安全评估模型,对其火灾危险性进行了评估。     

直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型

为有效提高直升机电力作业安全评价能力,落实通用航空作业标准化和规范化管理,本文以直升机电力作业中人员因素、直升机设备因素、电力作业设备因素、自然环境因素、机场环境因素、组织因素、规章管理因素7个模块为一级指标建立安全评价指标体系。结合多位专家给出的概率语义值,基于模糊集与改进的证据融合理论量化各指标风险程度,同时采用三角模糊数法确定中间节点条件概率,最后利用贝叶斯网络模型灵活推理能力,提出直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型。通过对某通用航空公司直升机电力作业安全状况评价分析可知,企业组织因素、电力作业设备因素以及人员因素为主要薄弱环节,需加强管理,可通过提高从业人员的安全防范意识、提高设备可靠性以及加强人员培训等措施对风险进行预防。     

基于灰色多层次的航空公司飞行安全评价研究

针对影响航空公司飞行安全诸多因素具有的灰色性,引入灰色理论对航空公司飞行安全进行风险评价,从机组、飞机、环境和管理4个因素,提出航空公司飞行安全风险评价的指标体系,采用层次分析法(AHP)确定评价指标权重,建立基于灰色多层次的航空公司飞行安全风险评价模型。根据建立的模型,对国内某航空公司飞行安全状况进行评价,通过分析认为该航空公司的飞行安全介于高风险与较高风险之间,急需加强安全防范,尤其应该加强对飞行安全管理。综合评价的结果为航空公司制定飞行安全措施及预防对策提供科学的依据。     

Reducing unknown risk: The safety engineers’ new horizon

A significant gap exists between accident scenarios as foreseen by company safety management systems and actual scenarios observed in major accidents.The mere fact that this gap exists is pointing at flawed risk assessments, is leaving hazards unmitigated, threatening worker safety, putting the environment at risk and endangering company continuity. This scoping review gathers perspectives reported in scientific literature about how to address these problems.Safety managers and regulators, attempting to reduce and eventually close this gap, not only encounter the pitfalls of poor safety studies, but also the acceptance of ‘unknown risk’ as a phenomenon, companies being numbed by inadequate process safety indicators, unsettled debates between paradigms on improving process safety, and inflexible recording systems in a dynamic industrial environment.The immediacy of the stagnating long term downward major accident rate trend in the Netherlands underlines the need to address these pitfalls. A method to identify and systematically reduce unknown risks is proposed. The main conclusion is that safety management can never be ready with hazard identification and risk assessment.     

基于物元分析法的古建筑火灾风险评价

古建筑火灾风险评估是突发事件应对中"关口前移"的体现,以物元分析法为基础提出了古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型,并对某世界名镇内古建筑进行风险评估。首先,在火灾风险影响因素的事故树分析基础上,选取能够反映古建筑火灾风险特性的51个指标作为评价指标体系;其次,建立古建筑火灾风险评价的物元模型;最后,根据实地调研数据进行标准化赋值,实现对古建筑火灾风险的定量化评价,通过评价方法对比验证了模型有效性和先进性。结果表明,所评价建筑的总体关联度系数为-0.248,四项"优秀"级别指标关联度分别为-0.129、-0.183、-0.211、-0.216,两项"较差"级别指标关联度为0.025、-0.016,表明所评价建筑火灾风险等级的显性结果为"优秀"级别,但隐性结果为"良好+"级别,火灾风险等级潜在提升能力较强。     

Integrating major accidents hazard into occupational risk assessment: An index approach

Major Accident Hazard (MAH) and Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) are two separated topics in both industrial practice and legislation; recently, interest is increasing toward an integrated risk assessment mainly forced by the tendency to a more efficient safety management system. The present study proposes a semi-quantitative approach to integrate MAH in OSH risk assessment. The two risk types are characterized by opposite features: the OSH analysis is usually task-based and focused on job profiles, while the MAH analysis is space-based and focused on plant characteristics. The basic idea of the proposed approach is to merge spatial information and job profile features in order to improve OSH assessment; thus, a risk index derived by the recent standard ISO 12100 (2010) has been adapted. In detail, the proposed index combines exposure times of each worker at each plant unit – derived from the OSH analysis – with damage areas derived from MAH analysis allowing a quantitative assessment of the MAH risk level for each individual job profile. The model has been tested in a large petrochemical plant; several hypotheses have been developed in order to validate the model. Results have showed the potentiality of the proposed approach in providing a common and coherent representation of both MAH and OSH risks, according to job profiles and plant units.     

石油天然气钻井工程风险量化技术

基于风险的概念,在对石油天然气钻井工程设计、工艺设备、施工管理、复杂情况和事故等总体分析的基础上,提出钻井工程风险量化方法———风险评估指数系统。此方法结合科学计算和专家经验,确定了固有风险指标、事故易发性指标和后果严重度指标等三个指标及量化标准,并将钻井工程风险划分为4个等级,最终建立了由指数体系、评分体系、风险分级标准组成的风险评估系统。本方法可用于专业机构的风险评估,也可用于安全管理部门的检查,以指导采取相应措施降低工程的危险性。     

Operational leeway in work situations: do ergonomic risk assessment tools consider operational leeway for job analysis?

Our study shows that information on operational leeway is limited in the originator articles of the ergonomic risk assessment tools for prevention of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The tools’ underlying theoretical models do not consider the indicators of operational leeway, and they cannot determine the sufficiency of the situational operational leeway in a work situation. Consequently, regulation of the activity, which ensures the performance goals and the individual's health, has been overlooked. The lack of literature on indicators of situational operational leeway is one of the reasons for this deficit. Defining the indicators for this concept would be an innovation in the approach of MSD risk prevention. Developing empirically the concept of situational operational leeway in risk assessment tools would help to progress the current approach of MSD prevention. This study therefore proposes indicators of situational operational leeway to increase the representativeness and reliability of the risk assessment tools for MSDs.     

Actual safety performance of the Malaysian offshore oil platforms: Correlations between the leading and lagging indicators

IntroductionThis study establishes the correlations between performance of a set of key safety factors and the actual lagging performance of oil platforms in Malaysia, hence the relevance of the key safety factors in evaluating and predicting the safety performance of oil and gas platforms. The key factors are crucial components of a safety performance evaluation framework and each key safety factor corresponds to a list of underlying safety indicators.MethodIn this study, participating industrial practitioners rated the compliance status of each indicator using a numbering system adapted from the traffic light system, based on the actual performance of 10 oil platforms in Malaysia. Safety scores of the platforms were calculated based on the ratings and compared with the actual lagging performance of the platforms. Safety scores of two platforms were compared with the facility status reports' findings of the respective platforms.ResultsThe platforms studied generally had good performance. Total recordable incident rates of the platforms were found to show significant negative correlations with management and work engagement on safety, compliance score for number of incident and near misses, personal safety, and management of change. Lost time injury rates, however, correlated negatively with hazard identification and risk assessment. The safety scores generally agreed with findings of the facility status reports with substandard process containment found as a contributor of hydrocarbon leaks.ConclusionsThis study proves the criterion validity of the safety performance evaluation framework and demonstrates its usability for benchmarking and continuous improvement of safety practices on the Malaysian offshore oil and gas platforms.Practical applicationsThis study reveals the applicability of the framework and the potential of extending safety reporting beyond the few conventional lagging safety performance indicators used. The study also highlights the synergy between correlating safety factors to streamline safety management on offshore platforms.     

基于DHGF算法和三角模糊数的装备研制风险评价

针对风险管理方法难以对装备研制风险进行有效评价的问题,提出基于DHGF算法和三角模糊数的装备研制风险评价方法。运用德尔菲法建立装备研制风险的综合评价指标体系。基于三角模糊数和层次分析法(AHP)计算评价指标的权重。利用灰色系统理论确定评价灰类,计算灰色评价系数,得出灰色评价权向量和权矩阵。形成综合评判矩阵,进行模糊运算,求得综合评价结果。算例表明,该方法可有效用于装备研制风险的评价。     

Work-related road safety: A case study of Roche Australia

Fleet, work-related or occupational road safety has the potential to make a major contribution to reducing both human harm and asset damage. To date, however, there would appear to be a dearth of well researched and evaluated case studies in the public domain in this area.This paper provides an on-going, documented, real-world case study of work-related road safety within an Australian company that has sought to manage, monitor and improve its road safety performance over the last 5 years through a range of proactive, fleet manager, insurance and risk-led initiatives.Roche Australia has successfully implemented a Company Motor Vehicle Safety Program with support from its fleet insurers and risk management advisors. Four key initiatives are set out covering: (1) Driver risk assessment, monitoring and improvement. (2) Policy development and communications. (3) Process and outcomes evaluation. (4) Continuous review and refinement of policies, processes, programs and future developments.The program has led to a range of process and performance-based outcomes. Typical barriers to success in work-related road safety have been identified and overcome. Almost 100% risk assessment and improvement process compliance by drivers has been achieved. A predictive relationship between risk assessment outcomes and collision history has been identified. Reductions in insurance claims, collision costs and claims ratio have been sustained. A detailed project plan is in place to continue the program for the next 3 years.The paper concludes that with effective management, a well developed work-related road safety program can result in performance improvements within the initiating organisation. Several limitations in the case study methodology, as well as areas for further work and lessons for policy makers, researchers and practitioners are also identified.     

Risk-based asset integrity indicators

Asset integrity is a major concern of process facilities. Monitoring and assessing asset integrity is a challenging task due to the involvement of various dependent and independent parameters. Monitoring and assessing asset performance through indicators is one easily doable option. Lack of an appropriate set of indicators quantification technique and measurement cohesion limits the use of an indicator system. To overcome this, in the present paper a hierarchical framework is prepared to for asset integrity monitoring and assessment. The hierarchical structure is used to characterize the asset and relate it to an organization’s strategic goal. The hierarchical structure is based on three major areas of asset integrity, namely: mechanical, personnel and process. Further, it provides an opportunity to follow a bottom-up perspective for identifying multilevel level indicators. The proposed approach uses a risk metric to classify asset integrity through the integration of leading and lagging indicators’ outcome. The analytical hierarchy process is used to determine the weights, or for prioritization of each level indicator and for the aggregation of the indicators to classify risk. To test the proposed model, a benchmark study is conducted. The estimated asset integrity index value provides a tangible asset’s performance index. The system of indicators and their integration provide a comprehensive view of the process facility’s status and also reveal which sections of the facility need more attention.     

基于云模型的富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价

为适应风险因素不确定性、随机性及动态反馈性等特点,建立新型富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价体系,提出1种基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法.选取5个1级指标、29个2级指标构建评价指标体系;综合层次分析、熵权与加权平均计算法合理分配各指标权重;利用云生成算法计算出云数字特征参数并生成足够数量的云滴;将方法应用于贵州省某隧道涌水风险评...     

Analysis of business safety performance by structural equation models

Domestic safety performance, which has had gained increasingly greater importance in recent years, is the subject of many studies. However, studies on the application of the structural equation model (SEM) in systematic safety performance model fitness verifications remain scarce. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the safety performance with the aim at one private representative chemical and food company in Taiwan, for providing the strategy and improvement consult in safety management. In order to obtain the best-fit safety performance model, the Amos 17.0 (Analysis of Moment Structure 17.0) was used to construct a series of SEM competition models to confirm the four various orientations of the safety performance model through the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) method. The results showed that the first-order multi-factor oblique model and second-order single-factor safety performance model were the best-fit models. The results of this study will contribute to the related enterprises’ ability to assess the safety indicators and will also be an even greater contribution to the future development of enterprise security.