A criterion for developing credible accident scenarios for risk assessment

Maximum credible accident analysis is one of the most widely used concepts in risk assessment of chemical process industries. Central to this concept is the aspect of ‘credibility’ of envisaged accident scenarios. However, thus far the term credibility is mostly treated qualitatively, based on the subjective judgement of the concerned analysts. This causes wide variation in the results of the studies conducted on the same industrial unit by different analysts.

This paper presents an attempt to develop a criterion using which credible accident scenarios may be identified from among a large number of possibilities. The credible scenarios thus identified may then be processed for detailed consequence analysis. This would help in reducing the cost of the analysis and prevent undue emphasis on less credible scenarios at the expense of more credible ones.     

Occupational accident: An example of fatalistic beliefs among medical waste workers in Bangladesh

This study was conducted to see whether fatalism is an important factor in explaining occupational accidents among medical waste operatives in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Data were collected using a variety of qualitative techniques and included observation, formal and informal dialogue. Sampling strategies included formal representative sampling, purposive and authoritative sampling. Employers did not supply PPE or offer training to their staff. Most workers (73%) did not wear PPE regularly, and a further 18% wore only insufficient PPE. Consequently, most waste workers (95%) reported that they had experienced occupational accidents, mostly (75%) from used needles and other sharps. These observations were associated with fatalistic beliefs among the participants, both managers and employees, who attributed these events to “fate” reflecting their perceived lack of control over such accidents. This study reveals many examples of a lack of organisational awareness that can occur within a culture of fatalism.     

某铁路隧道作业场所职业危害风险控制效果评价

为了解铁路隧道作业场所职业病危害特征,评估其职业病危害风险控制效果,采用现场调查与职业病危害因素检测相结合的方法,对某铁路隧道作业场所职业病危害特征进行调查,采用职业病危害风险指数评估模型进行控制效果评估。结果表明,该铁路隧道作业场所职业危害因素主要包括生产过程中职业病危害、劳动过程中危害和生产环境中危害;主要职业病危害因素为电焊烟尘、矽尘、NO、NO2、CO、CO2、噪声、振动、高湿等;隧道内工务、电务、供电三大线路作业场所的线路维护人员接触的噪声均为轻中度危害,氮氧化物(NO、NO2)为轻度危害,接触的CO为中高度危害,线路维护人员矽尘作业岗位为轻中高度危害,易导致职业病损的发生。提出应重点监控该铁路隧道接触噪声、CO和矽尘的作业岗位,采取科学综合防控措施,改善作业环境质量,强化个人防护。     

Occupant injury severity from lateral collisions: A literature review

Problem

Side impacts are a serious automotive injury problem; they represent about 30% of all fatalities for passenger vehicle occupants. This literature review focuses on occupant injuries resulting from real lateral collisions. It emphasizes the interaction between injury patterns and crash factors, taking into account type of injuries and their severity. It highlights what is known on the subject and suggests further studies.

Method

We reviewed papers identified by searches in two electronic databases for the 1996-2009 publication period, and in specific journals and conference proceedings.

Results

Studies on the Primary Direction of Force (PDOF) have revealed that fatal crashes occur most frequently when the PDOF is at 3 or 9 o'clock. The risk of serious injury is two to three times higher for the near-side occupant than for the far-side occupant. Head injuries predominate in oblique impacts and thoracic injuries in perpendicular ones. A few results are also reported on side airbag protection.

Conclusions

This literature review presents an overall picture of the injuries caused by lateral collisions, though each of the papers or articles examined focuses mostly on some particular aspect of the problem. The incidence of specific injuries depends on the data source used. Very few population-based analyses of lateral collision injuries were found.

Impact on industry

New studies are needed to evaluate new protective devices (e.g., lateral airbags, inflatable curtains). Without interfering with their care duties, Emergency Medical Technicians could be systematically trained to observe the collision's specific characteristics and to report all their relevant observations to the emergency physicians to increase the likelihood of prompt diagnosis and proper care.     

电炉生产系统工伤事故控制技术的研究

本文是综合应用安全系统工程的原理和方法,控制生产系统的工伤事故,并采用系统辨识理论,辨识生产中的潜在危险和后果,定量评价潜在危险的危害程度和发生概率;综合应用数理统计、工程逻辑、故障树、事件树、管理失误和风险树等多种分析方法,对电炉炼钢生产的原料、冶炼、铸锭、天车、电气、机械等子系统进行了事故发生可能性的预分析和安全状况评价。据分析评价结果,结合生产实际和管理现状,制定了控制事故的综合技术对策,并开发了一系列适合于我国企业安全管理实际需要的计算机软件。     

Driver aging and its effect on male and female single-vehicle accident injuries: some additional evidence

INTRODUCTION: This study explores the differences in injury severity between male and female drivers, and across the different age groups, in single-vehicle accidents involving passenger cars. METHOD: Given the occurrence of an accident, separate male and female multinomial logit models of injury severity (with possible outcomes of no injury, injury, and fatality) were estimated for young (ages 16 to 24), middle-aged (ages 25 to 64), and older (ages 65 and older) drivers. RESULTS: The estimation results show statistically significant differences in the factors that determine injury-severity levels between male and female drivers and among the different driver age groups. CONCLUSIONS: We discuss a number of plausible explanations for the observed age/gender differences and provide suggestions for future work on the subject. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: A better understanding of age and gender differences can lead to improvements in vehicle and highway design to minimize driver injury severity. This paper provides some new evidence to help unravel this complex problem.     

Implementation and evaluation of the Safety Element Method at four mining sites

The Safety Element Method (SEM) is a method for improvements of safety results and safety approaches in the Norwegian mining industry. The method is developed by users and researchers in co-operation. The main approach of the method is that a group of organisational members assesses the current and desired situation for their own organisation within defined areas. Based on this assessment they work out a strategy and action plan to reach the internal goals for desired achievement, i.e. the desired situation defined. This article presents the implementation of the method in four mining companies and evaluates the method for its construct validity, criterion validity, face validity, how the method functions and is accepted among the users. The results show that the opinions regarding the experiences with the method are, on the whole, positive. The method is regarded as a valuable approach towards safety improvements. Subjective assessments play a prominent role in SEM, but these assessments are supported by an extensive review of empirical data such as accident reports, interview results and a questionnaire. This means that the internal assessments correspond well to the safety results of the companies and also to the independent external reviews carried out by the researcher.     

I2SI: A comprehensive quantitative tool for inherent safety and cost evaluation

This paper presents details of an integrated inherent safety index (I2SI). The conceptual framework of this index was presented at the 37th Annual Loss Prevention Symposium of the AIChE (2003) and published in Process Safety Progress (volume 23(2), 136–148, 2004). In addition to the framework, the current paper discusses additional features of the index such as the cost model and system design model, which were not presented or discussed earlier. I2SI is called an integrated index because the procedure considers the life cycle of the process with economic evaluation and hazard potential identification for each option. I2SI is comprised of sub-indices which account for hazard potential, inherent safety potential, and add-on control requirements. In addition to evaluating these respective characteristics, there are also indices that measure the economic potential of the option. To demonstrate the applicability and efficacy of I2SI, an application of the index to three acrylic acid production options is also discussed in the paper.     

On the development of a new hybrid risk assessment process using occupational accidents’ data: Application on the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

The occupational accidents have a major impact upon human integrity and also bring about high costs for the social health and insurance system of a country. In addition, risk analysis is an essential process for the safety policy of a company, having as main aim the effacement of any potential of damage in a productive procedure, while the quantified risk evaluation is the most crucial part of the whole procedure of assessing hazards in the work. The main goal of this study is double: a) the development and presentation of a new hybrid risk assessment process (HRAP) and b) the application of HRAP in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) (the unique electric power provider and the largest industry in Greece), by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 12-year period of 1993-2004. The new process consists of four distinct phases a) the hazard sources’ identification phase, b) the risk consideration phase, c) the risk-evaluation phase, and d) the phase of the risk assessment and safety-related decision making. The results show that in some cases the risk value has been calculated in PPC to be higher than 500 (in the risk rating of 0-1000), which imposes the taking of suppressive measures for abolishing the danger source, while the fatal accident frequency rate (per 10⁸ man-hrs) is FAFR ≅ 2.4.     

Overcoming the blame game to learn from major accidents: A systemic analysis of an Anhydrous Ammonia leakage accident

This article aims to demonstrate the need for changing the methods with which accidents are analyzed, if we truly wish to use what we uncover from them to learn and enrich our knowledge base of organizational management. The goal is to relinquish the broadly adopted and rather simplistic paradigm that accepts the search for human error and unsafe acts performed by workers, and produces “guilt diagnostics”. Instead, we use a systemic accident analysis methodology, based on the sociotechnical principle of understanding the real operating conditions in which accidents take place. In order to demonstrate the benefits of the theoretical framework, we compare the analyses of an Anhydrous Ammonia gas leakage accident in a fish processing plant using the traditional accident analysis model based on unsafe acts and the proposed systemic approach. The results favor the latter since it tends to be more reliable and offering useful recommendations to safety management processes, thus helping to prevent accidents, especially in complex systems.     

Developing a new alternative risk assessment framework in the work sites by including a stochastic and a deterministic process: A case study for the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

An individual method cannot achieve the optimum risk-assessment result in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the parallel application of a deterministic approach with a stochastic approach. In particular, the risk analysis and assessment techniques of the deterministic (DET) approach are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). Furthermore, the stochastic (STO) approach includes the classic statistical approach (CSA) and the accident forecasting modeling (AFM). The objective of this paper is triple: (a) the presentation and classification of the main risk analysis and risk assessment methods and techniques of the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach as well, (b) the development and presentation of a new alternative risk assessment framework (called as STODET) including a stochastic and a deterministic process, and (c) the application of STODET in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 17-year period of 1993-2009. In particular, the STODET application proves that required actions (or suppressive measures) are essential and must be taken in a medium-term period (1 working year) for abolishing the hazard sources.     

Thermal risk in batch reactors: Theoretical framework for runaway and accident

Thermal safety and risk of accidents are still challenging topics in the case of batch reactors carrying exothermic reactions. In the present paper, the authors develop an integrated framework focusing on defining the governing parameters for the thermal runaway and evaluating the subsequent risk of accident. A relevant set of criteria are identified in order to find the prior conditions for a thermal runaway: failure of the cooling system, critical temperature threshold, successive derivatives of the temperature (first and second namely) vs. time and no detection in due time (reaction time) of the runaway initiation. For illustrative purposes, the synthesis of peracetic acid (PAA) with hydrogen peroxide (HP) and acetic acid (AA) is considered as case study. The critical and threshold values for the runaway accident are identified for selected sets of input data. Under the conditional probability of prior cooling system failure, Monte Carlo simulations are performed in order to estimate the risk of thermal runaway accident in batch reactors. It becomes then possible to predict the ratio of reactors, within an industrial plant, potentially subject to thermal runaway accident.     

CDC's research portfolio in older adult fall prevention: a review of progress, 1985-2005, and future research directions

PROBLEM: Falls are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity among adults age 65 and older. Population models predict steep increases in the 65 and older population bands in the next 10-15 years and in turn, public health is bracing for increased fall rates and the strain they place on health care systems and society. To assess progress in fall prevention, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a research portfolio review to examine the quality, relevance, outcomes and successes of the CDC fall prevention program and its impact on public health. METHODS: A peer review panel was charged with reviewing 20 years of funded research and conducting a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis for extramural and intramural research activities. Information was collected from grantees (via a survey instrument), staff were interviewed, and progress reports and products were reviewed and analyzed. RESULTS: CDC has invested over $24,900,000 in fall-related research and programs over 20 years. The portfolio has had positive impacts on research, policies and programs, increasing the public health injury prevention workforce, and delivering effective fall prevention programs. DISCUSSION: Public health agencies, practitioners, and policy makers recognize that while there are some evidence-based older adult fall prevention interventions available, many remain unused or are infeasible to implement. Specific recommendations across the public health model, include: additional research in gathering robust epidemiologic data on trends and patterns of fall-related injuries at all levels; researching risk factors by setting or sub-population; developing and testing innovative interventions; and engaging in translation and dissemination research on best practices to increase uptake and adoption of fall prevention strategies. CDC has responded to a number of suggestions from the portfolio review including: funding translation research of a proven Tai Chi fall intervention; beginning to address gaps in gender, ethnic, and racial differences in falls; and collaborating with partner organizations who share in CDC's mission to improve public health by preventing falls and reducing fall-related injuries. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Industry has an opportunity to develop more accessible and usable devices to reduce injury from falls (for example, hip protectors and force reducing flooring). By implementing effective, evidence-based interventions to prevent falls and reduce injuries from falls, significant decreases in health care costs can be expected.     

RAPID-N: Rapid natech risk assessment and mapping framework

Natech accidents at industrial plants are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences. For the mitigation of natech risk, authorities need to identify natech prone areas in a systematic manner. In order to facilitate probabilistic natech risk mapping, a unified methodology was developed that is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, determination of damage probabilities of plant units, and assessment of probability and severity of possibly triggered natech events. The methodology was implemented as an on-line, extensible risk assessment and mapping software framework called RAPID-N, which allows rapid local and regional natech risk assessment and mapping with minimal data input. RAPID-N features an innovative data estimation framework to complete missing input data, such as on-site natural hazard parameters and plant unit characteristics. The framework is also used for damage assessment and natech consequence analysis, and allows easy modification of input parameters, dynamic generation of consequence models according to data availability, and extension of models by adding new equations or substituting existing ones with alternatives. Results are presented as summary reports and interactive risk maps, which can be used for land-use and emergency planning purposes by using scenario hazards, or for rapid natech consequence assessment following actual disasters. As proof of concept, the framework provides a custom implementation of the U.S. EPA's RMP Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology to perform natech consequence analysis and includes comprehensive data for earthquakes. It is readily extendible to other natural hazards and more comprehensive risk assessment methods.     

Slip and fall accident prevention: A review of research, practice, and regulations

This paper summarizes current research, practices, and regulations regarding walking/working surface slipperiness and coefficient of friction (COF) measurements. The literature and data are reviewed from three aspects:

1. (a) the biomechanics of walking and psychophysiological factors involved in slips and falls studied by the scientific community,

2. (b) various measuring devices and methods developed in an attempt to quantify the “slipperiness” of walking/working surfaces, and

3. (c) an acceptable quantitative standard for the “slipperiness” of surfaces and the impact of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) on such a standard.

Unresolved issues related to slip-resistance are identified. A multifaceted approach and synergy from researchers, the building industries, standards organizations, and government are needed to obtain concensus on such issues.     

The role of production and teamwork practices in construction safety: A cognitive model and an empirical case study

Problem

In construction, the challenge for researchers and practitioners is to develop work systems (production processes and teams) that can achieve high productivity and high safety at the same time. However, construction accident causation models ignore the role of work practices and teamwork. This study investigates the mechanisms by which production and teamwork practices affect the likelihood of accidents.

Method

The paper synthesizes a new model for construction safety based on the cognitive perspective (Fuller's Task-Demand-Capability Interface model, 2005) and then presents an exploratory case study. The case study investigates and compares the work practices of two residential framing crews: a 'High Reliability Crew' (HRC)—that is, a crew with exceptional productivity and safety over several years, and an average performing crew from the same company.

Results

The model explains how the production and teamwork practices generate the work situations that workers face (the task demands) and affect the workers ability to cope (capabilities). The case study indicates that the work practices of the HRC directly influence the task demands and match them with the applied capabilities. These practices were guided by the 'principle' of avoiding errors and rework and included work planning and preparation, work distribution, managing the production pressures, and quality and behavior monitoring.

Summary

The Task Demand-Capability model links construction research to a cognitive model of accident causation and provides a new way to conceptualize safety as an emergent property of the production practices and teamwork processes. The empirical evidence indicates that the crews' work practices and team processes strongly affect the task demands, the applied capabilities, and the match between demands and capabilities.

Impact on Industry

The proposed model and the exploratory case study will guide further discovery of work practices and teamwork processes that can increase both productivity and safety in construction operations. Such understanding will enable training of construction foremen and crews in these practices to systematically develop high reliability crews.     

Systems-based accident analysis methods: A comparison of Accimap, HFACS, and STAMP

Three accident causation models, each with their own associated approach to accident analysis, currently dominate the human factors literature. Although the models are in general agreement that accidents represent a complex, systems phenomenon, the subsequent analysis methods prescribed are very different. This paper presents a case study-based comparison of the three methods: Accimap, HFACS and STAMP. Each was used independently by separate analysts to analyse the recent Mangatepopo gorge tragedy in which six students and their teacher drowned while participating in a led gorge walking activity. The outputs were then compared and contrasted, revealing significant differences across the three methods. These differences are discussed in detail, and the implications for accident analysis are articulated. In conclusion, a modified version of the Accimap method, incorporating domain specific taxonomies of failure modes, is recommended for future accident analysis efforts.     

Children's behavioral traits and risk of injury: Analyses from a case-control study of agricultural households

Problem

Children on family agricultural operations have high risk of injury. The association between children's behavioral traits and their risk of injury is not well understood.

Method

Data from the Regional Rural Injury Study-II were used to assess behavioral risk factors for injury to children ages six to < 20 years. A total of 379 injury events (cases) and 1,562 randomly selected controls were identified. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), calculated using logistic regression, were used to estimate injury risk in reference to behavioral traits.

Results

Injury risks were greater for children with high levels of depressive symptoms (OR = 1.9, CI = 1.0-3.7) and aggression (OR = 1.6, CI = 0.9-2.7), and low levels of careful/cautious behavior (OR = 1.8, CI = 1.1-2.9). Children with low levels of self-regulation had reduced risks (OR = 0.4, CI = 0.2-0.8).

Discussion

Results suggest that children's behaviors affect their risk of agricultural injury. Additional research could elucidate mechanisms and inform interventions.

Impact on industry

The development of multifaceted, sustainable approaches for prevention is necessary for this unique population. These findings suggest a need for interventions that incorporate specific behavior-related risk factors in the context of family farms and ranches.     

Age and lost working days as a result of an occupational accident: A study in a shiftwork rotation system

The present work analyzed the relationship of age and tenure with occupational accident severity of 156 male shiftworkers at an industrial plant. Based on past research, negative binomial regression analyses were performed to examine the association of age and tenure with the lost working days due to medically certified occupational accidents (LWDI). The main effects of age and tenure and the contribution of age by tenure interaction and age squared terms were examined. Regression results indicated a significant association of age by tenure interaction with LWDI. However, this relationship was non-significant when considering an age squared term in the regression equation, suggesting a non-linear association of age with LWDI. The findings are discussed in regard to the specific preventative measures of occupational accidents in shiftwork systems that could be addressed to different age groups.