Why businessmen should be honest: The argument from rational egoism

You are a business owner who has just taken out a loan to manufacture a new high technology product, for which you have lucrative orders. Although you thought you could make the product to specifications, you have not been able to do so. You will not be able to meet the delivery deadline and cash is running short — so short that it is threatening the viability of the rest of your business. Things are in a critical state, but you desperately want the product to succeed. You have several options. You could tell the customers about your problems, ask for a postponement of the deadline, and hire an outside consultant to help with the product. But this will anger your customers, take time and not solve your cash flow problem. You could also get another bank loan by telling the bank's president that you need it to expand an old line of business. You know he will refuse more money for the new product, but he does not have to be told how you will actually use the money. The loan will take a while to process but you need money now. You can get it from your children's college savings accounts; it would upset your wife (who helped fund the accounts) and the kids, but you do not have to tell them and can repay later. You can also borrow money from the employee pension fund. The employees do not have to know. Finally, you can ship the products even though they do not meet specs, and hope that nobody finds out right away. You can use customers' payment to pay back the various loans and worry about fixing the product later. What should you do? Should you take the honest route or the dishonest route? Clearly, you have to make a moral choice, but you can only do so by reference to a moral code. In this essay we will address three questions: (1) What are the main moral codes that have been accepted throughout the centuries and what are their views on honesty? (2) Why are they inadequate and what would be a rational moral code and its argument for honesty? (3) How would one apply it to the issue of businessmen being honest?     

Development and application of equipment maintenance and safety integrity management system

Equipment management in process industry in China essentially belongs to the traditional breakdown maintenance pattern, and the basic inspection/maintenance decision-making is weak. Equipment inspection/maintenance tasks are mainly based on the empirical or qualitative method, and it lacks identification and classification of critical equipment, so that maintenance resources can’t be reasonably allocated. Reliability, availability and safety of equipment are difficult to control and guarantee due to the existing maintenance deficiencies, maintenance surplus, potential danger and possible accidents. In order to ensure stable production and reduce operation cost, equipment maintenance and safety integrity management system (MSI) is established in this paper, which integrates ERP, MES, RBI, RCM, SIL and PMIS together. MSI can provide dynamic risk rank data, predictive maintenance data and RAM decision-making data, through which the personnel at all levels can grasp the risk state of equipment timely and accurately and optimize maintenance schedules to support the decision-making. The result of an engineering case shows that the system can improve reliability, availability, and safety, lower failure frequency, decrease failure consequences and make full use of maintenance resources, thus achieving the reasonable and positive result.     

Assessing the maintenance unit of a nuclear power plant – identifying the cultural conceptions concerning the maintenance work and the maintenance organization

Various organizational accidents have indicated that the shared interpretations and experiences of the personnel concerning the work, the organization, and the associated risks are of crucial importance for the safety and effectiveness of the operations. These conceptions are an element of the organizational culture. The cultural conceptions should thus be studied and their contribution to the organizational safety and effectiveness should be assessed proactively. Nevertheless, organizational assessments often focus on either the general safety attitudes and/or values of the personnel, or formal organizational structures and the official practices. In this article a case study is reported that was carried out in a Nordic nuclear power plant maintenance unit. We will illustrate how the employees in the organization construct their work, their organization and the demands of the maintenance task. We focus on explicating and assessing the cultural conceptions prevalent in the maintenance organization. Our aim is to illustrate how the cultural conceptions and organizational practices, tools and the organizing of the work and the organizational climate influence each other, and how they relate to the demands of the maintenance work. The principal methods utilized in the case study were organizational culture questionnaire (CULTURE), semi-structured interviews, group working, and personnel development seminars.     

The Airline Lifesaver: a 17-year analysis of a technique to prompt the delivery of a safety message

INTRODUCTION: The Airline Lifesaver (AL) is a 13.3 cm x 9.8 cm card any passenger can deliver to the attendant of a commercial airline in order to prompt the delivery of an important safety message. In particular, the AL requests the following safety--belt reminder be added to the regular announcements given at the end of the flight-"Now that you have worn a seat belt for the safest part of your trip, the flight crew would like to remind you to buckle-up during your ground transportation." METHOD: The AL card was handed to 1,258 flight attendants over a 17-year period and compliance with the request for the safety message was systematically tracked. Slightly more than one-third of the AL cards (n=460) included an incentive for making the announcement. RESULTS: Without the incentive, compliance to give the buckle-up reminder was 35.5% of 798 flights. With the incentive, compliance was significantly higher (i.e., 53.3%). IMPACT: The validity of the AL intervention is discussed with regard to its: (a) relevance to cognitive dissonance and consistency theory, and (b) broad-based applicability as a component of community-wide efforts to facilitate a safety-focused culture. The 17-year study also demonstrated a practical and cost-effective application of a behavior-based incentive program.     

基于SEM的维修资源管理对机务人员不安全行为的影响研究

为减少维修差错导致的不安全事件,从维修资源管理对机务人员不安全行为的影响进行探讨,以团队合作、沟通交流、工作压力、领导能力、工作环境及惯例作为维修资源管理变量,考虑不安全行为意向对不安全行为的中介作用,提出了维修资源管理各因素对机务人员不安全行为的影响假设。通过实证分析,采用结构方程模型(SEM)的方法验证了维修资源管理各因素对机务人员不安全行为的影响假设。实证结果表明:维修资源管理各因素对机务人员不安全行为及意向有不同的影响作用。为机务人员的安全行为管理提供理论支持。     

BP神经网络在航空机务人员本质安全程度评价中的应用

航空机务是飞机安全服役的重要保障,为提高航空机务系统的本质安全性,需要对航空机务人员的本质安全程度进行准确评价。在对本质安全人进行定义并明确航空机务人员本质安全程度评价项目后,构建了一种基于MATLAB的用于本质安全程度评价的BP神经网络模型。实例分析中,以某航空公司10位机务人员的专家打分数据作为样本输入,在对输入数据进行标准化处理,并明确期望输出后,通过编程计算,确定了网络隐含层神经元的最佳数目。采用优化结构进行仿真计算,结果表明BP网络的期望输出值和实际仿真输出值能较好吻合,证实了模型的可信性。基于BP网络的航空机务人员本质安全程度评价具有较好的适用性和可行性。     

基于模糊贴近度和熵权的航空装备维修安全综合评价

航空装备维修安全是确保装备飞行安全的重要因素,为提高航空装备飞行的安全性,需要对航空装备维修安全进行准确评价。根据航空装备维修安全评价涉及的不确定性问题,采用模糊数学和熵理论,提出一种基于模糊贴近度和熵权的航空装备维修安全综合评价方法。在建立航空装备维修安全评价指标体系的基础上,采用熵确定各指标的权重值、加权平均算子确定综合评价集,利用非对称贴近度进行决策分析。通过对某型飞机调查数据的算例分析,确定航空装备维修安全的主要影响因素,得出该型飞机维修安全水平的评价值。     

铁路真空卸污设备远程运行维护系统设计

以铁路真空卸污设备为研究对象,进行远程运行维护系统的开发设计。根据真空卸污设备的运行特点,确定系统具备的功能,采集的数据类型、信号传输方式,并进行硬件开发集成和软件开发。该系统可以实现对铁路真空卸污设备运行状态数据的采集与分析,加快真空卸污设备故障诊断和维护的响应速度,提高设备的安全性和可靠性,提升铁路真空卸污设备运行维护智能化水平。     

道化学评价法的改进及其在联合站安全评价中的应用

道化学评价法是一种在化学工业领域应用广泛的安全评价方法,针对道化学评价法评价未考虑人员、环境及设备维护等因素而使评价结果不够准确的情况,提出了在安全补偿系数选取中引入物质系数修正、人因危险补偿系数、环境补偿系数和设备状态补偿系数对道化学法进行改进。首先通过对物质燃烧性进行温度修正获取实际情况下的物质系数值,同时通过统计数据分析计算出人因行为概率,进而计算人因危险补偿系数,此外结合设备可靠度引入了设备状态补偿系数。将以上改进方法应用到某油田联合站原油稳定装置和轻烃储罐装置的安全评价中,结果表明经过改进的道化学评价法能更客观地反映实际情况,评价结果更准确,同时根据改进后得到的危险等级提出了稳定装置及轻烃储罐装置安全运行的对策措施,最后结合事故案例对比了传统道化学和改进道化学的结果,说明了改进方法的准确性和优势。     

A framework to estimate the risk-based shutdown interval for a processing plant

Petrochemical plants and refineries consist of hundreds of pieces of complex equipment and machinery that run under rigorous operating conditions and are subjected to deterioration over time due to aging, wear, corrosion, erosion, fatigue and other reasons. These devices operate under extreme operating pressures and temperatures, and any failure may result in huge financial consequences for the operating company. To minimize the risk and to maintain operational reliability and availability, companies adopt various maintenance strategies. Shutdown or turnaround maintenance is one such strategy. In general, shutdown for inspection and maintenance is based on the original equipment manufacturer's (OEM) suggested recommended periods. However, this may not be the most optimum strategy given that operating conditions may vary significantly from company to company.The framework proposed in this work estimates the risk-based shutdown interval for inspection and maintenance. It provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making by considering the probability of the equipment or system for failure and the likely consequences that may follow. The novel risk-based approach is compared with the conventional fixed interval approach. This former approach, characterized as it is by optimized inspection, maintenance and risk management, leads to extended intervals between shutdowns. The result is the increase in production and the consequent income of millions of dollars.The proposed framework is a cost effective way to minimize the overall financial risk for asset inspection and maintenance while fulfilling safety and availability requirements.     

基于安全性的特种设备维修策略研究

针对我国目前安全生产形势，对特种设备使用与维修应予以特别重视，分析了特种设备维修管理现状及存在的问题，阐述了特种设备维修中的关键问题并提出了解决这些关键问题维修策略；利用计算机辅助故障树分析，找同特种设备维修重点；以特种设备的安全运行为目标；提出了合理维修周期求解模型；设计并实现了特种设备维修管理信息系统，将故障树分析和维修周期求解融入其中，实现了特种设备维修决策的科学化和规范化。实践证明，该信息系统实现了提出的维修策略，对提高特种设备的安全性和经济性有较大的实用价值。     

What you don’t manage will leak: A tribute to Trevor Kletz

This paper expands on a simple concept shared with us over three decades ago by Trevor Kletz: what you don’t have can’t leak. Despite many efforts at eliminating hazards through inherently safer process methodologies, as encouraged by Kletz and others, the reality is that the use of hazardous materials and processes is still quite common. Therefore, we consider those processes that still handle hazardous materials – the cases where what you do not manage will leak and may cause a fire, explosion or toxic release. Our intended audience is quite broad. As Kletz has noted over the years, it is not just the people running a process who are responsible for its safety, but also those who make decisions on its design, operation, maintenance, staffing, etc. We hope that this paper contributes to an understanding of why we continue to have hazardous materials leak, potentially leading to accidents that cause fatalities, serious injuries, property damage, and environmental harm.We expand on the fundamental equation for risk, a function of both the frequency and the consequence of a possible event, by considering the effects of poor operational discipline on risk, and ultimately, on the possible leak or release of the hazardous material. Continued safe operation involving hazardous materials depends on and is sustained by the operational discipline of everyone involved in the design of processes and their continuing operation and maintenance. What we do not manage will leak and therein lays the fundamental challenge that Kletz continues to emphasize today.     

基于物联网技术的设备状态维修安全管理研究

随着物联网(IOT)技术的不断发展,状态维修(CBM)理论逐步运用于设备安全管理中。通过构建基于物联网技术的设备状态维修安全管理体系,建立CBM预测决策模型,并通过设备轴承状态维修的例证来说明模型的可用性。结果表明:设备实现物联网后,基于物联网技术的设备状态维修安全管理是科学可行的,便于设备的维修管理,提高设备的安全工作寿命。     

适合于钢铁企业设备检修的安全管理办法

根据钢铁企业设备检修的环境和特点,提出了1套适合于钢铁企业设备检修的安全管理方法--"1165安全管理模式";指出关注并解决设备检修作业过程中的安全问题,是当今企业安全管理的一个重要课题.     

民航机务维修安全管理水平未确知测度分析

为了准确判断机务维修安全管理状况,从维修人员、机械设备、环境和管理4个方面分析和探讨机务维修安全管理影响因素。基于国内外民航机务维修日常安全管理现状,采用系统工程和安全科学理论,结合现场调研结果,提出机务维修安全管理水平指标体系,并确定指标体系中的安全管理水平分级标准。针对民航维修安全管理具有不确定性和复杂性的特点,运用未确知测度理论建立机务维修安全管理水平分析模型。应用该模型计算某维修单位安全管理测度向量值,利用置信度准则判定其安全等级。结果表明,应用该模型所得分析结果与航空公司机务维修实际安全管理水平相符,该单位今后应重点加强维修人员引进、新机型培训和老龄飞机维护等管理工作。     

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing – Unexpected reaction case studies make the case for technical discipline

The old saying, “what you don't know can't hurt you,” implies that ignorance is bliss. “A little knowledge is a dangerous thing,” may be closer to the truth; however, it is not the little that we know that is dangerous, but that which is not known. By design, the processes used in the chemical industry are reactive, and the intended reaction receives much scrutiny. However, other reactions occur, often unexpectedly, and possibly with severe consequences. The lessons we learn from these reactions must drive the improvement of our process development and technology management processes and the culture that shapes those processes, a culture of Technical Discipline.Technical Discipline, analogous to Operating Discipline in the manufacturing organization, is a culture committed to fully identifying and characterizing chemical and reaction hazards, and properly documenting and communicating those hazards to create a permanent knowledge and understanding within the organization operating that process.A culture of Technical Discipline will reveal reaction hazards that might otherwise remain unknown until being unveiled in a dramatic and unexpected fashion. Until you fully identify and characterize the hazards of the materials you handle in your processes…what you don't know can hurt you.     

Development of a risk-based maintenance strategy using FMEA for a continuous catalytic reforming plant

Petrochemical facilities and plants require essential ongoing maintenance to ensure high levels of reliability and safety. A risk-based maintenance (RBM) strategy is a useful tool to design a cost-effective maintenance schedule; its objective is to reduce overall risk in the operating facility. In risk assessment of a failure scenario, consequences often have three key features: personnel safety effect, environmental threat and economic loss. In this paper, to quantify the severity of personnel injury and environmental pollution, a failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) method is developed using subjective information derived from domain experts. On the basis of failure probability and consequence analysis, the risk is calculated and compared against the known acceptable risk criteria. To facilitate the comparison, a risk index is introduced, and weight factors are determined by an analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the appropriate maintenance tasks are scheduled under the risk constraints. A case study of a continuous catalytic reforming plant is used to illustrate the proposed approach. The results indicate that FMEA is helpful to identify critical facilities; the RBM strategy can increase the reliability of high-risk facilities, and corrective maintenance is the preferred approach for low-risk facilities to reduce maintenance expenditure.     

直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型

为有效提高直升机电力作业安全评价能力,落实通用航空作业标准化和规范化管理,本文以直升机电力作业中人员因素、直升机设备因素、电力作业设备因素、自然环境因素、机场环境因素、组织因素、规章管理因素7个模块为一级指标建立安全评价指标体系。结合多位专家给出的概率语义值,基于模糊集与改进的证据融合理论量化各指标风险程度,同时采用三角模糊数法确定中间节点条件概率,最后利用贝叶斯网络模型灵活推理能力,提出直升机电力作业非线性动态安全评价模型。通过对某通用航空公司直升机电力作业安全状况评价分析可知,企业组织因素、电力作业设备因素以及人员因素为主要薄弱环节,需加强管理,可通过提高从业人员的安全防范意识、提高设备可靠性以及加强人员培训等措施对风险进行预防。     

Integrating switchgear breakers and contactors into a safety instrumented function

In the process industries, electrical circuit breakers are tripped for a variety of reasons including hazard prevention and mitigation. This paper will discuss the application of tripping electrical breakers for process safety reasons. It often occurs that a risk assessment study has determined the need to include the shutdown of a large electric motor as part of a safety instrumented function (SIF). In the process industries, it is common practice to control and protect large horsepower motors (typically 2000 HP and above), with medium-voltage switchgear breakers. Safety instrumented functions that include electric motors utilizing medium-voltage switchgear for tripping have unique final element subsystems, which require specialized knowledge in order to implement correctly. This paper will discuss the design considerations for integrating medium-voltage switchgear used for shutdown of an electric motor into a safety instrumented function. First, an overview of typical low and medium-voltage electrical equipment used for controlling and protecting electric motors will be discussed. Next, a review of generic sourced failure data for medium-voltage switchgear breakers will be presented. Focus will be on the taxonomy used to classify different breaker types and the relevant failure modes and effects used for quantifying performance. Next, specific SIF design details for tripping medium-voltage switchgear breakers will be analyzed in the context of achieving a certain integrity level. Parameters to be considered include hardware fault tolerance requirements, voting, available diagnostics, energize vs. de-energize to trip shutdown circuits, certified equipment vs. proven-in-use, and alternate means of shutdown (including manual intervention and protective relaying). This paper will also analyze the common electrical equipment that is shared among potential protection layers used to trip the same breaker, and determine how much credit can be taken considering common cause failure. Finally, inspection, test, and preventive maintenance (ITPM) of medium-voltage switchgear will be discussed as a means for maintaining the electrical equipment in the “as good as new” condition.     

船舶设备事故中的人为因素分析与控制研究

根据设备维修系统设备维修的人为失误环节和船员失误分析模式以及轮机管理人员具有明感知设备的运行状态、隐感知设备的故障趋势等特点,实施有效管控措施。结合航运市场特性,基于设备可靠度,提出风险性和经济性的维修方式策略,可大幅提高航运公司的安全航运水平和经济效益。利用维修系统的信息流,建立了船舶设备维修管理信息系统,整合设备运行状态、船员的综合素质状态及组织管理信息,以便于阻断导致事故发生的事件链,提高航运公司的船舶运输安全。