主体功能区划下经济-人口协调障碍及对策研究

通过对影响我国经济-人口协调的主要因素进行分析，找出在人口系统福利与经济系统福利方面的冲突环节和发展障碍，从市场体制、人口管理体制、财税体制、领导干部政绩评价制度等方面寻找成因，提出切实可行的对策建议，为我国主体功能区经济-人口协调发展提供参考。     

温州市生态文明城市的建设

生态文明城市是由人口、资源、环境、经济(PREE)组成的复合系统。本文从生态文明城市的概念和内涵入手,具体分析了其创建的基本原则。并以温州市为例,从生态经济建设、人口—社会系统建设、资源环境建设及保障体系建设等方面提出了对生态文明城市建设的对策和意见。     

西北干旱区人口—农业经济—生态耦合协调态势分析——以甘肃省民勤县为例CSSCI

根据2000—2014年甘肃省民勤县人口、农业经济和生态三个方面的相关数据,构建人口—农业经济—生态综合评价指标体系,运用变异系数法和耦合协调度模型对该县人口—农业经济—生态系统的耦合度、耦合协调度和综合评价指数进行了测算与分析。结果表明:近15年来,民勤县的人口—农业经济—生态系统耦合度C为0.372—0.696,经历了颉颃耦合和磨合耦合两个阶段,呈先下降后上升的趋势;耦合协调度D为0.325—0.639,整体实现了由失调衰退到协调发展的良性转化,虽然耦合度和耦合协调度都有所改善,但耦合协调程度较低。根据这一发展态势,结合民勤县特殊的自然条件,提出相应的对策建议。     

西北干旱区人口—农业经济—生态耦合协调态势分析——以甘肃省民勤县为例

根据2000—2014年甘肃省民勤县人口、农业经济和生态三个方面的相关数据,构建人口—农业经济—生态综合评价指标体系,运用变异系数法和耦合协调度模型对该县人口—农业经济—生态系统的耦合度、耦合协调度和综合评价指数进行了测算与分析。结果表明:近15年来,民勤县的人口—农业经济—生态系统耦合度C为0.372—0.696,经历了颉颃耦合和磨合耦合两个阶段,呈先下降后上升的趋势;耦合协调度D为0.325—0.639,整体实现了由失调衰退到协调发展的良性转化,虽然耦合度和耦合协调度都有所改善,但耦合协调程度较低。根据这一发展态势,结合民勤县特殊的自然条件,提出相应的对策建议。     

水库移民安置对不同年龄阶段移民的福利影响研究CSSCI

以湖南皂市水库移民为研究对象,在对移民年龄阶段进行细分的基础上,基于可行能力理论构建系统的水库移民福利评价体系,利用模糊评价方法测度不同年龄阶段移民的福利变化差异。研究发现:(1)水库移民安置对不同年龄阶段移民的福利影响差异明显。64岁以上移民的福利水平下降了26.71%,45—54岁移民的福利水平下降了19.45%,35岁以下移民的福利水平下降了12.32%。(2)不同年龄阶段移民的功能性活动的变化方向和变化程度不同。移民的居住、生产条件有所改善,社会保障、社会参与水平均下降,经济状况和社会交往功能在不同年龄阶段移民间的变化方向不同。研究结论认为,政府应提高安置过程中移民的社会参与水平,并针对不同年龄阶段移民的需求制定细致多样的补偿政策。     

水库移民安置对不同年龄阶段移民的福利影响研究

以湖南皂市水库移民为研究对象,在对移民年龄阶段进行细分的基础上,基于可行能力理论构建系统的水库移民福利评价体系,利用模糊评价方法测度不同年龄阶段移民的福利变化差异。研究发现:(1)水库移民安置对不同年龄阶段移民的福利影响差异明显。64岁以上移民的福利水平下降了26.71%,45—54岁移民的福利水平下降了19.45%,35岁以下移民的福利水平下降了12.32%。(2)不同年龄阶段移民的功能性活动的变化方向和变化程度不同。移民的居住、生产条件有所改善,社会保障、社会参与水平均下降,经济状况和社会交往功能在不同年龄阶段移民间的变化方向不同。研究结论认为,政府应提高安置过程中移民的社会参与水平,并针对不同年龄阶段移民的需求制定细致多样的补偿政策。     

黄河流域旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调度评价及影响因素

正确认识和恰当处理旅游经济与生态环境的关系是实现区域生态保护和旅游业高质量发展的重要议题。采用耦合协调度模型和空间回归分析方法,评价2007—2017年我国黄河流域9省区旅游经济与生态环境的耦合协调度及影响因素。结果表明:①2007—2017年,黄河流域旅游经济和生态环境两大系统的评价值均呈增长趋势,旅游经济的增长速度明显高于生态环境。②2007—2017年,黄河流域各省区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调度呈上升态势。③政府控制力、产业结构(第三产业占比)、人口规模和人民生活水平4个因素对本地区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调发展具有显著正向影响,工业研发投入对本地区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调具有显著负向影响。     

西部民族地区城镇化对能源效率影响的实证分析——以云南省为例

利用云南省2005—2013年的统计数据建立灰色关联度模型,实证分析了我国西部民族地区城镇化对能源效率的影响。结果表明,经济城镇化、社会城镇化和人口城镇化均对能源效率的提升有促进作用。其中,人口城镇化的作用最大,其次是社会城镇化,第三是经济城镇化,而土地城镇化的能源效率改善效应不明显。     

城市化对能源效率的影响研究

选择能源强度作为代表能源效率的指标,以非农人口比重、非农产业产值比重、人均建成区面积、万人拥有医生数分别作为人口城市化、经济城市化、土地城市化、社会城市化方面的代表性指标,利用中国29个省区1995—2010年的面板数据建立面板回归模型,从实证层面探究中国城市化对能源强度的影响,以此为寻求碳减排路径提供依据。研究结果表明,城市化对能源效率有显著影响,其中人口城市化和土地城市化是能源效率提高的抑制因素,经济城市化是能源效率提高的主要促进因素。     

人口—产业—资源协同发展对贫困的影响研究——以湖南武陵山片区为例

基于2006—2015年湖南武陵山片区33个县市区的面板数据,构建子系统有序度模型和复合系统协同度模型,选择系统序参量,对该地区的人口、产业和资源的协同发展水平进行测度,利用ArcGIS10.4软件对协同发展水平的时空格局进行分析,再结合计量模型实证检验协同发展水平对贫困的影响。研究结果表明:湖南武陵山片区的人口—产业—资源协同发展水平持续提高,但片区内各县市人口—产业—资源协同发展水平的增长速度存在较大的差异,区域整体协同发展程度不高。计量分析结果表明,人口—产业—资源的协同发展对贫困减缓有显著的正向影响。根据研究结论,提出提高人口—产业—资源协同发展水平以提高扶贫效率的相关政策建议。     

AN APPLICATION OF INVESTMENT TIMING ANALYSIS: DUAL WATER SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A general methodology to study the economics of dual water systems (defined here as a separate distribution system for untreated low quality local surface Water for outdoor municipal water supply) is summarized and the application of the method to a rapidly growing city is presented. In the first step, a cost-benefit criterion for evaluating dual systems is developed. The criterion is then extended to a dynamic case where the population to be served increases with time and where the dual system is allowed to expand. The optimal investment time to introduce the dual water supply project is obtained by maximizing social welfare. The model is applied to the city of West Jordan, Utah, where a dual system is currently being proposed. Model results indicate that for the city as a whole dual supply is not economically feasible. However, when the model is applied to a part of the city, it is found feasible and the optimal time to initiate the project would be in the year 1989.     

Qualitative Stakeholder Analysis for the Development of Sustainable Monitoring Systems for Farm Animal Welfare

Continued concern for animal welfare may be alleviated when welfare would be monitored on farms. Monitoring can be characterized as an information system where various stakeholders periodically exchange relevant information. Stakeholders include producers, consumers, retailers, the government, scientists, and others. Valuating animal welfare in the animal-product market chain is regarded as a key challenge to further improve the welfare of farm animals and information on the welfare of animals must, therefore, be assessed objectively, for instance, through monitoring. Interviews with Dutch stakeholder representatives were conducted to identify their perceptions about the monitoring of animal welfare. Stakeholder perceptions were characterized in relation to the specific perspectives of each stakeholder. While producers tend to perceive welfare from a production point of view, consumers will use visual images derived from traditional farming and from the animals natural environments. Scientists perceptions of animal welfare are affected by the need to measure welfare with quantifiable parameters. Retailers and governments (policy makers) have views of welfare that are derived from their relationships with producers, consumers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and scientists. All interviewed stakeholder representatives stated that animal welfare is important. They varied in the extent to which they weighted economic considerations relative to concern for the animals welfare. Many stakeholders emphasized the importance of communication in making a monitoring system work. Overall, the perspectives for the development of a sustainable monitoring system that substantially improves farm animal welfare were assessed as being poor in the short term. However, a reliable system could be initiated under certain conditions, such as integrated chains and with influential and motivated stakeholders. A scheme is described with attention points for the development of sustainable monitoring systems for farm animal welfare in the long term.     

Development of a Decision Support System for Assessing Farm Animal Welfare in Relation to Husbandry Systems: Strategy and Prototype

Due to increasing empiricalinformation on farm animal welfare since the1960s, the prospects for sound decisionmakingconcerning welfare have improved. This paperdescribes a strategy to develop adecision-making aid, a decision support system,for assessment of farm-animal welfare based onavailable scientific knowledge. Such a decisionsupport system allows many factors to be takeninto account. It is to be developed accordingto the Evolutionary Prototyping Method, inwhich an initial prototype is improved inreiterative updating cycles. This initialprototype has been constructed. It useshierarchical representations to analysescientific statements and statements describingthe housing system. Welfare is assessed fromwhat is known about the biological needs of theanimals, using a welfare model in the form of atree that contains these needs as welfarecomponents. Each state of need is assessedusing welfare relevant attributes of thehousing system and weighting factors.Attributes are measurable properties of thehousing system. Weighting factors are assignedaccording to heuristic rules based on theprinciple of weighting all components(attributes and needs) equally, unless thereare strong reasons to do otherwise. Preliminarytests of the prototype indicate that it may bepossible to perform assessment of farm-animalwelfare in an explicit way and based onempirical findings. The procedure needs to berefined, but its prospects are promising.     

Impact of Animal Welfare on Costs and Viability of Pig Production in the UK

The European Union welfare standardsfor intensively kept pigs have steadilyincreased over the past few years and areproposed to continue in the future. It isimportant that the cost implications of thesechanges in welfare standards are assessed. Theaim of this study was to determine theprofitability of rearing pigs in a range ofhousing systems with different standards forpig welfare. Models were constructed tocalculate the cost of pig rearing (6–95 kg) in afully-slatted system (fulfilling minimum EUspace requirements, Directive 91630/EEC); apartly-slatted system; a high-welfare,straw-based system (complying with the UK-basedRoyal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty toAnimals, Freedom Food standards) and afree-range system. The models were also used toassess the consequences of potential increasesin space allowance, and to estimate the cost ofrearing pigs under organic standards.The cost of rearing pigs ranged from92.0 p/kg carcass weight (cw) and 94.6 p/kgcw forthe partly-slatted and fully-slatted systems,to 98.8 p/kgcw and 99.3 p/kgcw for the FreedomFood and free-range systems respectively. Whenspace allowance was increased by 60% to levelsin a recent proposal to revise pig welfareDirective (91/630/EEC), the rearing costs wereunchanged for the free-range system but rose by4.6 p/kgcw for the fully-slatted system. Rearingcosts under organic standards were 31% higherthan in the free-range system. These resultssuggest that improved pig welfare can beachieved with a modest increase in costAt present, price premiums received for meatproduced under high welfare systems in the UKoffset the higher costs of production in thesesystems. To ensure profitability in the longterm, it is important that these premiums aremaintained.     

Outlining a Conception of Animal Welfare for Organic Farming Systems

The concept of animal welfare refersto the animal's quality of life. The choice ofdefinition always reflects some basicvaluation. This makes a particular conceptionof welfare value-dependent. Also, the animalhusbandry system reflects certain values oraims. The values reflected in the chosenconception of animal welfare ought tocorrespond to values aimed for in the husbandrysystem. The IFOAM Basic Standards and otherwritings dealing with organic animal husbandryshould be taken as a departure point for adiscussion of how to interpret the conceptionof welfare in organic farming systems. Theconception of welfare is related to two corevalues in the organic agriculture movement.These core values should be considered in termsof (1) aim for holistic view and (2) aim forsustainability. A third, implicit core value,based on bio- and ecocentric views: (3) respectfor nature is needed as a supplement to thesetwo core values. There are importantimplications of these core values for an``organic' conception of animal welfare and forconfronting two dilemmas due to conflictinginterests. Comparisons among the three commonlyused welfare definitions will show thesuperiority of the third approach, which canprovide an outline for a conception of animalwelfare more suitable for organic farmingsystems. This outline combines a holisticecocentric approach with respect for theindividual animal, and it can be used as thebasis for a complex definition with emphasis onnatural behavior. Such a systemic approachconsiders welfare in relation to differentsystemic levels. The systemic view also offerspossibilities for resolving the dilemmas in newways.     

Does Organic Farming Face Distinctive Livestock Welfare Issues? – A Conceptual Analysis

The recent development and growth oforganic livestock farming and the relateddevelopment of national and internationalregulations has fueled discussions amongscientists and philosophers concerning theproper conceptualization of animal welfare.These discussions on livestock welfare inorganic farming draw on the conventionaldiscussions and disputes on animal welfare thatinvolve issues such as different definitions ofwelfare (clinical health, absence of suffering,sum of positive and negative experiences,etc.), the possibility for objective measuresof animal welfare, and the acceptable level ofwelfare. It seems clear that livestock welfareis a value-laden concept and that animalwelfare science cannot be made independent ofquestions of values and ethics. The questioninvestigated here is whether those values thatunderpin organic farming, in particular, alsoaffect the interpretation of livestock welfare,and, if so, how. While some of the issuesraised in connection with organic farming arerelatively uncontroversial, others are not. Theintroduction of organic farming values seems tointroduce new criteria for what counts as goodanimal welfare, as well as a different ethicalbasis for making moral decisions on welfare.Organic farming embodies distinctive systemicor communitarian ethical ideas and the organicvalues are connected to a systemic conceptionof nature, of agriculture, of the farm, and ofthe animal. The new criteria of welfare arerelated to concepts such as naturalness,harmony, integrity, and care. While the organicvalues overlap with those involved in theconventional discussion of animal welfare, someof them suggest a need to set new prioritiesand to re-conceptualize animal welfare – forexample, with respect to ``naturalness,' inrelation to the possibilities for expression ofnatural behavior and in relation to animalintegrity as a concept for organismic harmony.The organic perspective also seems to suggest awider range of solutions to welfare problemsthan changes in farm routines or operations onthe animals. The systemic solutions include thechoice and reproduction of suitable breeds,changes in the farm structure, and changes inthe larger production and consumption system – including consumer perceptions andpreferences. But the organic values may alsocall for sacrifices of individual welfare in aconventional sense in order to advance welfarefrom the perspective of organic farming.Whether this is good or bad cannot be decidedwithout entering into an inquiry and discussionof the values and ethics involved.     

Longevity as an Animal Welfare Issue Applied to the Case of Foot Disorders in Dairy Cattle

In current dairy farming it is possible to run a profitable farm without having to adapt the system to the needs of dairy cows. In such systems the interests of the farmer and animals often diverge. Consequently, specific animal welfare problems occur. Foot disorders in dairy cattle are an illustrative example resulting from the specific methods of housing and management in current dairy farming. Foot disorders and the resulting lameness are considered the most important welfare problem in dairy farming. However, these foot disorders not only typify welfare problems related to certain housing systems, but they also lead to the premature culling of cows. The assessment of the impact of foot disorders on the welfare of dairy cows raised the question of whether premature culling affects animal welfare since it affects the longevity of a cow. We argue that this aspect of longevity is morally relevant as an animal welfare issue. In this paper we aim to explore whether longevity is both (a) a morally relevant aspect in the discussion on killing animals and (b) a constitutive element of animal welfare. In other words, we aim to explore whether longevity is an independent moral argument in an animal welfare discussion. We claim that longevity is not merely important as an indicator of animal welfare, but is also a constitutive element of animal welfare. We argue that we need a more integrated approach to animal welfare and that an assessment that includes the aspect of time is necessary. This view involves a shift from views on animal welfare in terms of functioning or feeling well to a view on animal welfare that includes the aspect of natural living in which species-specific development is important. To show the impact of these points of view, we look at the practical implications for choices concerning the management of foot disorders in dairy cattle.     

A New Framework for the Assessment of Animal Welfare: Integrating Existing Knowledge from a Practical Ethics Perspective

When making an assessment of animal welfare, it is important to take environmental (housing) or animal-based parameters into account. An alternative approach is to focus on the behavior and appearance of the animal, without making actual measurements or quantifying this. None of these tell the whole story. In this paper, we suggest that it is possible to find common ground between these (seemingly) diametrically opposed positions and argue that this may be the way to deal with the complexity of animal welfare. The model will have to be acceptable for the different parties that will be affected by it and real benefits for the animal should result from it. This will be the basis of a practical ethical approach. All this can be condensed into a model that essentially is made up out of three basic elements: the classical welfare analysis with an existing welfare assessment tool, an assessment of the stockholder, and an implementation of the Free Choice Profiling technique. This new framework does not pretend to be a different or better animal welfare matrix; it is intended to integrate existing knowledge and to provide a practical tool to improve animal welfare. It identifies whether there are welfare problems on a farm, if present whether these problems are caused by the housing system or the stockholder, and what can be done to improve the situation.     

中国绿色服务政策演进、协同及文本内容分析

绿色服务作为促进绿色产业专业化、高端化、规范化发展的综合性服务业,是保障绿色产业持续健康发展的重要支撑。本文以《绿色产业指导目录》为依据,全面梳理1986年以来我国中央政府颁布的各类绿色服务政策,从政策演进、政策主体关系、文本类型、政策工具结构等方面对我国绿色服务政策进行量化分析。研究发现:(1)我国中央政府颁布的绿色服务政策数量及总力度都越来越大,绿色服务政策的制定已经渡过探索期,进入高质量发展的政策体系全面形成阶段;(2)政策主体牵涉广泛,部际合作现象明显且合作模式较为固定,整体上部际合作增强但又呈现出阶段性的发展特征;(3)政策类型多种多样,但不同形式的政策文件分布不均,多通知、公告类低效力文件,缺乏高效力文件;(4)政策客体结构较为完整,但行业分布不平衡;(5)总体上政策工具类型逐渐多样化,但过度重视管理,供给型、环境型、需求型三大政策工具间存在一定程度的失衡,具体表现为重环境,轻供给和需求。本文建议,应进一步加强部际协调和有效合作,平衡政策工具结构和政策的行业分布,完成绿色服务政策由量到质的升级发展。