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1.
Climate change induces non-linear and unevenly distributed changes, such rising sea levels and extreme weather events that materialise on the regional level and considerably contribute to changes in the social fabric of regions, communities and places. Because of the need for societal responses, an in-depth understanding of individual and collective forms of engagement with climate change is of growing relevance. To contribute to close this gap, this paper applies a place-based approach for investigating how people’s place attachments and meanings inform individual and collective engagement with climate change. As a case study, the district of North Frisia (Germany) was chosen, a region between climate-change vulnerability and renewable-energy potential. Qualitative interviews and a household survey with coastal dwellers of the municipality of Reußenköge have been conducted, a group discussion with the Country Youth (Landjugend) and further interviews with experts from government, companies and associations spread over North Frisia and in Kiel. The results reveal two main findings: firstly, place-dependent attachments and meanings play a pivotal role for understanding people’s engagement with climate change, and secondly, the behavioural dimension of engagement involves diverse adaptation and mitigation measures adopted on individual and collective level. In sum, the findings conceptually and empirically reveal the importance of memories, experiences, knowledge and creativity for how people engage with climate change, but also exhibit the importance of policies mobilising community-based actions.  相似文献   

2.
Scientific consensus shows that the changes related to climate change are already occurring and will intensify in the future. This will likely result in significant alterations to coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, increase coastal hazards and affect lifestyles of coastal communities. There is increasing speculation that mangrove, a socio-economically important ecosystem, will become more fragile and sensitive to uncertain climate variability such as sea level rise. As a result, mangrove-dependent societies may find themselves trapped in a downward spiral of ecological degradation in terms of their livelihoods and life security. Strengthening the resilience capacity of coastal communities to help them cope with this additional threat from climate change and to ensure sustainability calls for immediate action. In this context, this paper critically examines the regional implications of expected sea level rise and threats to mangrove-dependent communities through a case study approach. The main objective is to highlight the requirement for climate change communication and education to impart information that will fulfil three expectations: (1) confer understanding; (2) assess local inference on climate change through a participatory approach; and (3) construct a framework for climate change awareness among mangrove-dependent communities through community-based non-formal climate change education. This scale of approach is attracting increasing attention from policymakers to achieve climate change adaptation and derive policies from a social perspective.  相似文献   

3.
The coastal stretch of north-eastern Mediterranean Morocco holds vitally important ecological, social, and economic functions. The implementation of large-scale luxury tourism resorts shall push socio-economic development and facilitate the shift from a mainly agrarian to a service economy. Sufficient water availability and intact beaches are among the key requirements for the successful realization of regional development plans. The water situation is already critical, additional water-intense sectors could overstrain the capacity of water resources. Further, coastal erosion caused by sea-level rise is projected. Regional climate change is observable, and must be included in regional water management. Long-term climate trends are assessed for the larger region (Moulouya basin) and for the near-coastal zone at Saidia. The amount of additional water demand is assessed for the large-dimensioned Saidia resort; including the monthly, seasonal and annual tourist per capita water need under inclusion of irrigated golf courses and garden areas. A shift of climate patterns is observed, a lengthening of the dry summer season, and as well a significant decline of annual precipitation. Thus, current water scarcity is mainly human-induced; however, climate change will aggravate the situation. As a consequence, severe environmental damage due to water scarcity is likely and could impinge on the quality of local tourism. The re-adjustment of current management routines is therefore essential. Possible adjustments are discussed and the analysis concludes with management recommendations for innovative regional water management of tourism facilities.  相似文献   

4.
This paper presents a generic framework for assessing inherent climate change hazards in coastal environments through a combined coastal classification and hazard evaluation system. The framework is developed to be used at scales relevant for regional and national planning and aims to cover all coastal environments worldwide through a specially designed coastal classification system containing 113 generic coastal types. The framework provides information on the degree to which key climate change hazards are inherent in a particular coastal environment, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system includes a total of 565 individual hazard evaluations, each graduated into four different hazard levels based on a scientific literature review. The framework uses a simple assessment methodology with limited data and computing requirements, allowing for application in developing country settings. It is presented as a graphical tool—the Coastal Hazard Wheel—to ease its application for planning purposes.  相似文献   

5.
Vietnam’s coastal zone provides a diverse range of natural resources and favourable conditions for social and economic development. However, its coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable, due to several natural coastal hazards, over-exploitation and other human activities. In spite of diverse interventions, Vietnam’s coastal zone continues to experience significant damage from floods, erosion and typhoons. These hazards are being intensified by climate change and associated rising sea levels. This paper assesses the potential vulnerability of Vietnam’s coast to climate change and discusses possible adaptation policies and plan to reduce the impacts. GIS analysis was used for the assessment of coastal vulnerability. Related literature was reviewed to develop detailed understanding of coastal adaptation to climate change. Adaptation policies and plans were appraised to identify potential coastal adaptation policies and plans that could be adapted by Vietnam. It was identified that vulnerability of the coastal zone of Vietnam could not be attributed only to climatic factors, but also to the physical condition of the coastline. Much of Vietnam’s coastline, particularly, areas around the Red River delta and the Mekong River have elevations below 1 m. These coastlines are largely developed and serve as economic centres of the country, which makes the coast more vulnerable to climate change and the rising sea level. The paper concluded that a non-structural approach (coastal buffer zones, building houses on stilts, storm warning systems, growing of flood-resistant crops and elevated storm shelters with medicine and food storage) could be used by Vietnam to adapt her low-lying coastline around the two deltas to climate change as this strategy enables vulnerable areas to be occupied for longer before eventual retreat. However, for these policies to be successful, it should be planned, implemented well in advance, monitored and evaluated over time.  相似文献   

6.
This paper analyzes local stakeholders’ perception of the effects of, and vulnerability to, climate change in the case of the Ebro delta (NW Mediterranean Sea). The specific survey carried out amongst relevant local stakeholders showed a high level of concern about the current and future effects of climate change on the physical and socio-economic structures of the Ebro delta. The results of the survey also showed that there is a general agreement on the lack of social and political awareness of the problems that climate change can create in the delta in the near future, as well as a lack of adaptation strategies (only suggested or already being implemented). Finally, the conclusions of the study mainly rely on the different adaptation strategies proposed by previous studies. If any of these strategies is to be developed, there is a clear need for a firm will - from the local, regional and national political authorities and stakeholders - that should allow the development of a new manner of governance that until now it has not been possible to develop in the Ebro delta.  相似文献   

7.
The dynamic coastline of Soc Trang Province in the Mekong Delta of Viet Nam is in most parts protected from erosion, storms and flooding by a narrow belt of mangroves. However, the unsustainable use of natural resources and development in the coastal zone is threatening the protection function of this forest belt. This situation is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, particularly by the increased intensity and frequency of storms, floods and by rising sea levels. Based on analysis of past experience of mangrove planting and historical changes in mangrove cover, an integrated and site-specific approach to adaptation to climate change has been put in place, which comprises mangrove planting and rehabilitation with emphasis on resilience to climate change, and participatory involvement of local communities in effective mangrove management and protection through co-management. To address uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change, testing of new mangrove planting techniques has started. This includes mimicking successful natural regeneration for small-scale planting in sites with high wave energy and transformation of existing even-aged plantations into more diverse forests—both in terms of structure and species composition. The pre-requisite for mangrove rehabilitation in erosion sites has successfully been put in place: breakwaters made from bamboo have reduced erosion and stimulated sedimentation. The design and construction of the wave-breaking structures, which was based on a numerical model which simulates hydrodynamics and shoreline development, ensures that downdrift erosion can be avoided as far as possible. A comprehensive monitoring program has been established and initial results provide evidence for the effectiveness of the bamboo breakwaters. Early experience shows that co-management is an effective way of maintaining and enhancing the protection function of the mangrove forest belt and at the same time providing livelihood for local communities. Payment for ecosystem services contributes to sustainability of co-management as well as livelihood improvement.  相似文献   

8.
The global change currently observed is deemed to generate accelerated coastal erosion and an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Populated tropical island coasts are particularly vulnerable. Awareness of this vulnerability has prompted recourse to the construction of operational observatories on the coastal dynamics of several French tropical islands, including Mayotte. The aims of this initiative are to characterise the coastal morphology of tropical islands and to monitor their rhythms and mechanisms of evolution, adaptation and resilience in the face of extreme climate and wave events (cyclones, storms, surges, strong swells…). Based on this, appropriate defence and/or adaptation strategies can be developed and implemented. Mayotte Island is a fine example of the implementation and utility of such an observatory. The island, in the southwest Indian Ocean, is characterised by a highly diversified coral reef-lagoon complex comprising pocket beaches and mangroves subject to increasing pressure from strong island demographic growth. The operational observatory set up on the island incorporates a Geographical Information System (GIS) based on a network sourced by various field measurements and observations conducted on the coastal forms on the basis of a predefined protocol and methodology. Field experiments include hydrodynamic measurements, topographic surveys, and observations, and these are coupled with the analysis of aerial photographs and regional meteorological data in order to gain a better understanding of the coastal morphology and of the evolution of the reef-lagoon complex. The results fed into the observatory and analysed through the GIS provide interactive maps of the coastal landforms and their evolution and dynamics over various timescales. Within a local framework of strong socio-economic and demographic pressures, and a more global context of environmental change, this observatory should lead to a better understanding and prediction of the morphodynamics of the coast of Mayotte, while providing data to the public at large, to researchers, and to stakeholders involved in decision-making in the face of the major and rapid environmental and socio-economic changes liable to affect the fragile reef-mangrove systems and pocket beaches.  相似文献   

9.
In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not based merely on the need for coastal protection due to physical coastal erosion. There is also the need to determine the level of awareness of sea-level rise and responses in coastal communities to improve adaptation planning. This study assesses the impact of future erosion on the coastal land cover of Ghana. This assessment estimates approximately 2.66 km2, 2.77 km2, and 3.24 km2 of coastal settlements, 2.10 km2, 2.20 km2 and 2.58 km2 of lagoons, 1.39 km2, 1.46 km2 and 1.71 km2 of wetlands to be at risk of inundation by the year 2050 based on coastal erosion estimates for the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study also assesses the level of awareness of respondents to SLR on the coast of Ghana and explores the availability and level of integration of scientific knowledge of SLR into coastal adaptation strategies in Ghana. Assessment of the awareness of SLR responses to the changing climate in Ghana is made through semi-structured interviews at national, municipal/district and coastal community scales. Although settlements may be inundated based on the coastal erosion estimates, coastal dwellers interviewed cherish their proximity to the sea and are determined to maintain their occupancy close to the sea as spatial location influences their source of livelihood (fishing). Respondents lack knowledge/understanding of SLR, as the majority of household interviewees attributed the rise or fall in sea level to God. Respondents from Ngiresia alleged that the ongoing coastal sea defence project in their community has led to increased malaria cases.  相似文献   

10.
Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection.  相似文献   

11.
Teleconnections are quasi-periodic changes in atmospheric circulation that oscillate over long periods of time and impact climate over large regions. These patterns are often linked to long-term variations in climate and extreme weather events and may explain regional differences in climate vulnerability. We apply methods of functional data analysis to examine regional impacts of teleconnections on climate in British Columbia, Canada, between 1951 and 2000. We focus on monthly mean temperature as an overall determinant of crop growth and apply functional principal components analysis (FPCA) to study variations in the impacts of four major teleconnection indices affecting the Northern Hemisphere (the Southern Oscillation Index, the Pacific North American (PNA), Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North American Oscillation indices). Two challenges we consider are that the impacts of teleconnections cannot be observed directly and that fine scale data required to study regional variations may come from different sources with highly varied records. We first fit thin-plate regression splines to the raw data to construct complete series of pseudo-data at fixed grid points. Regression models incorporating Bayesian P-splines were then fit to the pseudo-data to estimate the impacts of the four teleconnections over time. Finally, FPCA was then applied to study regional variations in these effects. Our analysis identified strong variations in mean temperature associated with the PNA. The resulting spatial patterns also reveal areas of increased/decreased temperature variability that may have higher climate risk or be suitable for expansion of agricultural activity.  相似文献   

12.
The recent 2014 floods in Serbia highlighted the potential extent of climate-related risks in the region, resulting in more than 30 deaths and more than 30,000 displaced people, with the overall cost of the damage close to €1.5 billion. By the end of this century, Serbia will experience an increase in temperature of up to 4°C and a decrease in summer precipitation of up to 50%. Adaptation to those changes calls for the redefinition of a strategic approach and the integration of climate change challenges into the processes of local sustainable development planning. The objective of this study was to assess current local sustainable development strategies (LSDSs) and highlight some of the threats and opportunities which may help or hinder the adaptation process, the evaluation of development priorities, coordination mechanisms at the local level and risk management practice. Based on climate trends and vulnerability level, 20 of the potentially most vulnerable municipalities in Serbia were selected. The analysis shows that although local sustainable development planning still lacks cross-sectorial planning practice and risk management plans and measures, and does not yet recognize vulnerable sectors as climate sensitive, it can still serve as a platform for adaptation planning. Based on the assessed LSDS framework, the most suitable approach to the development of an adaption strategy is the vulnerability-based approach. At the same time, the potential for initiating adaptation planning is recognized in the utilization of already established networks with external and international donors and planning experts, joined county or regional adaptation planning, and cross-border collaboration.  相似文献   

13.
Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability, but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg, increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study, past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated, considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.-I., Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106, 261–289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas, but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns, though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from −4% to −15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21st century. An average decrease of more than 25 mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole, indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless, soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well, and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved.  相似文献   

14.
Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.  相似文献   

15.
This paper introduces the need, in Italian countries, of a real integration of scientific knowledge into coastal policy. Actually, in Italy, still exists a gap between Science and Policy, interfering the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) process, while there is no coordination between local, regional and national authorities. This lack of an overall strategy has induced some regions to adopt regional plans for the sustainable development of their coastal areas, to compensate the shortcomings of a national planning. Besides, along Italian coasts, there is a heavy landscape urbanization producing conditions of environmental decay and highlighting the risk of erosions in littoral areas. In this critical context, it is necessary to adopt an effective Integrated Coastal Zone Management policy, to connect ecosystem and environmental approaches with the social and economic development of coastal areas. So, in Italian landscape, it is necessary to integrate the national cultural heritage into coastal management, joining scientific and cultural issues. In this framework, ICZM process could play an important role connecting scientists and policy makers towards an effective integration for the social and economic growth of local people.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Understanding how vulnerable forest ecosystems are to climate change is a key requirement if sustainable forest management is to be achieved. Modelling the response of species in their regeneration niche to phenological and biophysical processes that are directly influenced by climate is one method for achieving this understanding. A model was developed to investigate species resilience and vulnerability to climate change within its fundamental-regeneration niche. The utility of the developed model, tree and climate assessment (TACA), was tested within the interior Douglas-fir ecosystem in south-central British Columbia. TACA modelled the current potential tree species composition of the ecosystem with high accuracy and modelled significant responses amongst tree species to climate change. The response of individual species suggests that the studied ecosystem could transition to a new ecosystem over the next 100 years. TACA showed that it can be an effective tool for identifying species resilience and vulnerability to changes in climate within the most sensitive stage of development, the regeneration phase. The TACA model was able to identify the degree of change in phenological and biophysical variables that control tree establishment, growth and persistence. The response to changes in one or more of these variables resulted in changes in the climatic suitability of the ecosystem for species and enabled a measure of vulnerability to be quantified. TACA could be useful to forest managers as a decision support tool for adaptation actions and by researchers interested in modelling stand dynamics under climate change.  相似文献   

18.
Africa is most vulnerable to climate change, although it makes the least contribution to factors that result in global and regional climatic changes. High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity across the continent have been linked to, among other things, poverty. This paper discusses and analyses the relationship between climate change and poverty in Africa. It investigates the relationship between climate change and poverty patterns in Africa, analyses the resultant impact, and discusses potential adaptation policies for moderating the consequences of climatic changes on poverty in the region. The record shows that climate change is happening. What is not discussed or is little researched is the potential devastating impact of climate change on socio-economic development in Africa and the policy measures available to the continent for adaptation.  相似文献   

19.
Establishing protected areas, where human activities and land cover changes are restricted, is among the most widely used strategies for biodiversity conservation. This practice is based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. However, protected areas can maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change and subsequent shifts in distributions have been questioned. We evaluated the degree to which protected areas influenced colonization and extinction patterns of 97 avian species over 20 years in the northeastern United States. We fitted single-visit dynamic occupancy models to data from Breeding Bird Atlases to quantify the magnitude of the effect of drivers of local colonization and extinction (e.g., climate, land cover, and amount of protected area) in heterogeneous landscapes that varied in the amount of area under protection. Colonization and extinction probabilities improved as the amount of protected area increased, but these effects were conditional on landscape context and species characteristics. In this forest-dominated region, benefits of additional land protection were greatest when both forest cover in a grid square and amount of protected area in neighboring grid squares were low. Effects did not vary with species’ migratory habit or conservation status. Increasing the amounts of land protection benefitted the range margins species but not the core range species. The greatest improvements in colonization and extinction rates accrued for forest birds relative to open-habitat or generalist species. Overall, protected areas stemmed extinction more than they promoted colonization. Our results indicate that land protection remains a viable conservation strategy despite changing habitat and climate, as protected areas both reduce the risk of local extinction and facilitate movement into new areas. Our findings suggest conservation in the face of climate change favors creation of new protected areas over enlarging existing ones as the optimal strategy to reduce extinction and provide stepping stones for the greatest number of species.  相似文献   

20.
Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.  相似文献   

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