Sequential sampling designs for catching the tail of dispersal kernels

Methods to design a sampling strategy should depend on the research question involved when conducting the experiment. The objective of this study is to design a seed trap configuration surrounding a parent plant when the long distance component of the seed dispersal kernel is of interest. In particular, as a population’s invasion speed depends mainly on the tail of the dispersal kernel, the sampling design in this study is based on calculating this quantity. The optimality criterion is to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimated invasion speed (using a limited number of traps) with respect to the “true” calculated invasion speed. Detailed procedures are given on how to calculate an invasion speed, both in a 1D and a 2D setting, with examples on how to implement the method to get a local optimal sampling strategy using Calluna vulgaris as a test system. Results show a trade-off between nearby sampling (many seeds, no long-distance dispersal measured) and distant sampling (few seeds, but long-distance dispersal measured).     

Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

Determining When to Change Course in Management Actions

Time is of the essence in conservation biology. To secure the persistence of a species, we need to understand how to balance time spent among different management actions. A new and simple method to test the efficacy of a range of conservation actions is required. Thus, we devised a general theoretical framework to help determine whether to test a new action and when to cease a trial and revert to an existing action if the new action did not perform well. The framework involves constructing a general population model under the different management actions and specifying a management objective. By maximizing the management objective, we could generate an analytical solution that identifies the optimal timing of when to change management action. We applied the analytical solution to the case of the Christmas Island pipistrelle bat (Pipistrelle murrayi), a species for which captive breeding might have prevented its extinction. For this case, we used our model to determine whether to start a captive breeding program and when to stop a captive breeding program and revert to managing the species in the wild, given that the management goal is to maximize the chance of reaching a target wild population size. For the pipistrelle bat, captive breeding was to start immediately and it was desirable to place the species in captivity for the entire management period. The optimal time to revert to managing the species in the wild was driven by several key parameters, including the management goal, management time frame, and the growth rates of the population under different management actions. Knowing when to change management actions can help conservation managers’ act in a timely fashion to avoid species extinction. Determinar Cuándo Cambiar el Rumbo en las Acciones de Manejo     

Chorus model of the synchronizing bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata

Males of the Malaysian bushcricket species Mecopoda elongata synchronize or alternate their cyclically occurring song elements (chirps) in a duet. The acoustic interaction of males interacting in a duet was successfully simulated by means of mutually coupled song oscillators, which respond to a disturbance by a phase shift which is known from the phase response curves (PRCs) of real males. However, little is known about the acoustic interaction of males in a complex chorus situation. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to extend the duet model to a chorus taking into account an inhomogeneous spacing of agents and a natural variability of oscillator properties. This chorus model was used to study oscillator coupling in a chorus consisting of 15 agents. Since such a computer model allows one to simulate chorus manipulations that far exceed the possibilities of behaviour experiments, the following scenarios were simulated: modification of chorus density, sensory bias during sound production, selective attention to only a subset of neighbors and males joining or leaving a chorus. Simulation results allow one to draw conclusions about the chorusing behavior of males in a real chorus and about signaler and receiver aspects influencing chorusing formation and mate choice.     

The strategic use of innovation to influence regulatory standards

This paper investigates the welfare consequences of strategic behavior by firms to affect the amount of environmental regulation they face. Environmental regulation often attempts to force an industry to develop cleaner technology, but the regulator may have no means to commit to a specific standard. This lack of regulatory commitment induces firms to choose innovation strategically. It is well-known that firms have incentives to suppress innovation to induce the regulator to ratchet down the standard, and this strategic behavior lowers welfare. This paper explores a countervailing incentive. In oligopoly settings, firms have heightened incentives to innovate so as to increase regulation and raise rivals costs. In equilibrium, the incentive to raise rivals cost can mitigate the welfare loss arising from no regulatory commitment. Also, a regulator who is unable to commit ex ante to the stringency of a regulatory standard can induce more clean technology than a regulator with a commitment mechanism.     

Precision of the mean and the design of benthos sampling programmes: caution advised

To calculate the number of samples required to estimate population density to a specified precision, a prior estimate of the sample variance is needed. Using data from the freshwater benthic literature, Downing (1979, 1980a) calculated a regression equation to predict sample variance from sampler size and population density. He used predicted sample variance to calculate the number of samples, of a range of sizes, required to estimate a range of population densities to a specified precision. He concludes that massive savings (1300 to 5000%) of total surface area sampled may be achieved by using sample units of small surface area. These conclusions are misleading. The data set used for the regression does not adequately cover the combination of a low-density population sampled by a device of small surface area. The benthic community of Belhaven Bay, East Lothian, Scotland was sampled in 1982 with a 0.1 m² grab and a 0.0018 m² corer, providing 112 sets of replicate data which were used to test the hypothesis that for a specified precision of the mean a considerable saving of total area sampled may be obtained by sampling with a device of small surface area. The benthos of Loch Creran, Argyll, Scotland was sampled with contiguous corer samples on four occasions in 1980 and 1981, providing 234 independent sets of replicate data. Contiguous samples were grouped to form several simulated series of samples of increasing surface area. A sampler of small surface area provided a saving of total area sampled of about 20%. Whether such a small saving is justifiable will depend on the extra field expenses incurred by taking many small samples.     

Continuous-time correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data

We propose a continuous-time version of the correlated random walk model for animal telemetry data. The continuous-time formulation allows data that have been nonuniformly collected over time to be modeled without subsampling, interpolation, or aggregation to obtain a set of locations uniformly spaced in time. The model is derived from a continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck velocity process that is integrated to form a location process. The continuous-time model was placed into a state-space framework to allow parameter estimation and location predictions from observed animal locations. Two previously unpublished marine mammal telemetry data sets were analyzed to illustrate use of the model, by-products available from the analysis, and different modifications which are possible. A harbor seal data set was analyzed with a model that incorporates the proportion of each hour spent on land. Also, a northern fur seal pup data set was analyzed with a random drift component to account for directed travel and ocean currents.     

Northern magnetic displacements trigger endogenous fuelling responses in a naive bird migrant

In a previous study, we found that juvenile northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) exposed to a magnetic displacement to the west of their natural migration route increased their body mass. The total intensity and inclination used for the western displacement may also have been interpreted as northern compared to the experimental site (stronger total field intensity and steeper inclination angle). In order to investigate whether the fuelling response was a response to an unexpected magnetic field or specific to the northern magnetic field, we conducted a new experiment. Juvenile wheatears from the same study population were magnetically displaced to southwestern magnetic fields, exposing the birds to unexpected magnetic combinations, but eliminating the possible effect of a northern magnetic field. A control group was kept in the local geomagnetic field in Sweden for comparison. There was no difference in body mass increase between treatments, suggesting that the fuelling response previously found was not a simple response to an unexpected magnetic field, but rather a specific response to the northern magnetic field. Juvenile wheatears may have developed a fuelling response to northern magnetic fields in order to enable a successful flight towards the migration goal.     

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.     

A case for quantile regression in behavioral ecology: getting more out of flight initiation distance data

A central goal of behavioral ecology is to quantify and explain variation in behavior. While much previous work has focused on the differences in mean behavior across groups or treatments, we present a complementary approach studying changes in the distribution of the response variable. This is important because changes in the edges of a distribution may be more informative than changes in the mean if behavior at the edges of a distribution better reflects behavioral constraints. Quantile regression estimates the rate of change of conditional quantiles of a response variable and thus allows the study of changes in any part of its distribution. Although quantile regression is gaining popularity in the ecological literature, it is strikingly unused in behavioral ecology. Here, we demonstrate the usefulness of this method by analyzing the relationship between the starting distance (SD) at which an observer approach a focal animal and its flight initiation distance (FID, the distance between the observer and the animal when it decides to flee). In particular, we used a simple model of flight initiation distance to show that in most situations ordinary least-square regression cannot be used to analyse the SD–FID relationship. Quantile regression conducted on the lowest quantiles appears more robust and we applied this approach to data from four bird species. Overall, changes in the lowest FID values appeared to be the most informative to determine if a species displays a “flush early” strategy, a strategy which has been hypothesized to be a general rule. We hope this example will bring quantile regression to the attention of behavioral ecologists as a valuable tool to add to their statistical toolbox.     

Models of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources based on Odum's energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustainability principle

This paper presents a theoretical model of withdrawing resources based on Odum's energy systems diagrams. According to the theory of a general pulsing principle, withdrawing resources changes in time shifting from the initial phases of growth and maturity to the phases of descent and low energy restoration. A simulation was performed in order to hypothesize potential future trends of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources and to show some aspects of their sustainability–unsustainability, respectively. According to Odum's theory, after the rapid growth of the last century, our civilization is living in a climax transition phase and it is now approaching a descent phase. A “way down” will be necessary due to the exhaustion of non-renewable and to the limited use of renewable resources. An integrated “renew–non-renew” model was developed by Odum to show how a “business as usual” trend will bring us to a drastic transition to a world that uses scarce renewable resources. Nevertheless, a different choice is possible, based on Daly's concept of quasi-sustainability that can inspire a new model. The latter argued that the exploitation of a non-renewable resource must be paired with a compensating investment in a renewable substitute. Our model shows that we can use non-renewable resources better to considerably improve our capacity of capturing renewable resources in the future. We present this as a necessary condition to address a sustainable environmental policy.     

Predation risk affects courtship and attractiveness of competing threespine stickleback males

The effect of predation risk and male-male competition on male courtship behaviour and attractiveness to females was studied in the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) by presenting dummy or live females to solitary and competing males under different predation risks. In the presence of a predator, males decreased courtship activity. Different courtship components were, however, adjusted to different extents and in opposing directions to predation risk, probably because the single components may have varied in riskiness. The presence of a competing male decreased overall courtship activity, but increased the frequency of zigzags, suggesting zigzagging to be a competitive strategy against other males. In the presence of a predator male courtship activity was not affected by a competitor. Female mate choice correlated with the males' previous frequency of zigzags towards a dummy female. However, when a live female paid attention to a male, the male decreased zigzagging and instead increased leading and fanning behaviours, probably trying to attract the female to the nest to mate. Predation risk affected the attractiveness of males as females reduced their attention to a male when he faced a predator and reduced his courtship activity. As females instead increased their attention to a competing male that had increased his courtship activity, due to decreased competition, males clearly are balancing mating opportunities against predator avoidance. When males vary in their susceptibility to predators, predation risk may thus affect mating success of competing males. Received: 31 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 15 April 1997     

Community Tolerance Comparison As A New and Sensitive Ecotoxicological Tool

The demonstration of an increased tolerance to a pollutant is direct evidence that this pollutant has presented a selection pressure upon a population or community. Recently, pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) has been applied to the benthic community in a metal-enriched estuary to establish causal linkage between observed changes in community structure and composition and the presence of copper. This paper describes the rationale and methodology behind applying PICT to the marine benthic environment, and shows it to be a sensitive ecotoxicological tool. It also presents a case study, demonstrating how a PICT investigation has aided the interpretation of changes in a benthic community, establishing a causal linkage between these changes in the community and the presence of a specific pollutant.     

Community Tolerance Comparison As A New and Sensitive Ecotoxicological Tool

The demonstration of an increased tolerance to a pollutant is direct evidence that this pollutant has presented a selection pressure upon a population or community. Recently, pollution-induced community tolerance (PICT) has been applied to the benthic community in a metal-enriched estuary to establish causal linkage between observed changes in community structure and composition and the presence of copper. This paper describes the rationale and methodology behind applying PICT to the marine benthic environment, and shows it to be a sensitive ecotoxicological tool. It also presents a case study, demonstrating how a PICT investigation has aided the interpretation of changes in a benthic community, establishing a causal linkage between these changes in the community and the presence of a specific pollutant.     

Governance baselines as a basis for adaptive marine spatial planning

A marine spatial planning (MSP) initiative—if to be successful—has to be rooted in a thorough understanding of the tradition and structures of the governance system in the area targeted for the initiative. After decades of a mainly sectoral approach towards maritime affairs, governments began to recognised the need for a governance framework that applies a more integrated approach to maritime policy. The new Integrated Maritime Policy of the European Union is only one example for such a changed way of policy and decision making. The assembly of a governance baseline can help to identify the crucial hindering and success factors for the implementation of MSP. A governance baseline has two parts. Part One focuses upon the past and current performance of the governance system as it has responded—or failed to respond—to changes in the condition of ecosystems in a specific locale. Part Two of a baseline outlines a strategic approach to the design of a new program and records the goals, objectives and strategies of MSP implementation. Focus on both governance processes and their outcomes is essential and forms the core justification for documenting governance responses to ecosystem change.     

Implementing a new model to measure and assess eco-effectiveness as an indicator of sustainability

A model able to measure eco-effectiveness, which was theoretically proposed and illustrated in a previous article, is here developed and implemented for three case studies (USA, EU-15 and Japan) in order to verify its potential usefulness in the natural resources field. The results obtained by the application of the 'loss function' – ability to measure the distance between a real and an ideal situation – show that the model can be seen as a fundamental basis to assess the exploitation intensity of resources among different countries/areas and/or over time, especially if new measures and best environmental practices are adopted to increase resource productivity and to reduce environmental burdens. Since a main issue in the model implementation is related to the subjective choice of weights to be given to the various resources in the loss function (materials, fossil fuels and biomass), a graphical approach based on a 'weighting triangle' is also proposed to overcome the problem of previous weight selection. This tool permits us to make a distinction between a 'non-sustainability' area and a 'sustainability' area, based on whether an increase or a decrease of the loss function is more plausible.     

Socially facilitated egglaying behavior in Mediterranean fruit flies

We examined the behavior of individual mature female Mediterranean fruit flies (medflies), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), transferred from a holding cage without fruit to a clean host kumquat fruit already occupied by another medfly female engaged in ovipositional behavior. A significantly greater proportion of transferred (=test) ovipositionally naive females initiated ovipositor boring into a fruit in the presence than in the absence of an occupying medfly. Moreover, test females commenced boring significantly sooner in the presence than in the absence of another medfly. Interestingly, similar results occurred when a test medfly was transferred to a kumquat occupied by an ovipositing female oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel. In contrast, there was no enhancement of propensity to bore when a test medfly was transferred to a kumquat occupied by a female Biosteres arisanus (Sonan), a parasitoid attacking medfly eggs. The principal proximate stimulus giving rise to the higher tendency to oviposit of a test medfly in the presence of an occupying medfly or oriental fruit fly appeared to be wing-waving by the occupant during an encounter. We consider our findings to be good evidence of socially facilitated ovipositional behavior in ovipositionally naive medflies, and suggest that such females may benefit from acquisition of a cue demonstrating the acceptability of a host for oviposition. Received: 7 July 1997 / Accepted after revision: 30 August 1997     

Desirable design characteristics for long-term monitoring of ecological variables

Long-term environmental monitoring places a set of demands on a sampling strategy not present in a survey designed for a single time period. The inevitability that a sample will become out of date must be a dominant consideration in planning a long-term monitoring programme. The sampling strategy must be able to accommodate periodic frame update and sample restructuring in order to address changes in the composition of the universe and changes in the perception of issues leading to new questions and concerns. The sampling strategy must be capable of adapting to such changes while maintaining its identification as a probability sample and its capacity to detect trends that span the update occasions. These issues are examined with respect to sub-population estimation, post-stratification via conditioning, and sample enlargement and reduction. Design features that involve complex sample structure create potentially serious difficulties, whereas an equal probability design permits greater adaptability and flexibility. Structure should be employed sparingly and in awareness of its undesirable effects.     

Clinical and analytical follow‐up of 25 persons exposed accidentally to beryllium†

An accidental exposition of 25 persons to beryllium dust was used to follow up trace analytical and clinical parameters over a period of 10 months. Although no exposed person shows any symptoms of an acute beryllium intoxication, up to 5‐fold increased beryllium concentrations could be analysed in serum samples about 10 hours after exposition. The beryllium clearance shows a biological half time in the range of 2 to 8 weeks. The beryllium determination in the nanogram range was carried out using a combined method by flameless a.a.s. with a detection limit of 0.6 ppb Be and a relative standard deviation from 20 to 4% in relation to the concentration range of beryllium measurement.

Beryllium analyses are completed by thorax X‐ray, spirometry, y‐globulins and liver enzymes (SGOT, SGPT), which have shown no pathological values. Because it is known for beryllium to sensitize the cellular immune response, neopterin measurement was used to determine the activity of the immune system. Neopterin, a pteridine synthesized by activated macrophages after stimulation by gamma‐interferon derived from sensitized T‐lymphocytes, was determined in urine samples by HPLC combined with an fluorescence detector. Only in two cases a slight increase of neopterin has been found. As a result of this study it can be summarized, that a short‐time exposure to beryllium (10–20 h), which results in a increase of beryllium in serum to the fivefold normal beryllium level, does not initiate any symptoms of an acute beryllium intoxication. The exposed persons are controlled in future to evaluate the further course.     

Removal of arsenic in tailings by soil flushing and the remediation process monitoring

In order to investigate the optimum conditions for the application of soil flushing of arsenic, a batch test was carried out using EDTA at various concentration and pH levels. Based on the optimum condition derived from the batch test, a column test was conducted to examine the feasibility of the soil-flushing technology under field-equivalent conditions. In this column test, a low flushing solution flow rate showed a significantly higher As removal efficiency (71.6%) than a high flow rate (56.3%). TCLP (toxicity characteristic leaching procedure) and a seed germination test were carried out to monitor the toxicity both during and after the treatment. The finally treated tailings were shown to be significantly remediated, having a reduced toxicity by both the TCLP and seed germination tests.