The UK national obsession with energy supply

Summary

Whilst the European Union is proposing a Directive on integrated resource planning and leading cities in both Europe and America are investing in demand side measures, the UK electricity industry seems to be obsessed with building more supply capacity. Recent developments in Leicestershire emphasise this obsession with energy supply.

There is an alternative and local government should be vigorously pursuing this by both a close liaison with local utilities and by increasing public awareness of the social, economic and environmental benefits of reducing energy demand and providing energy services.     

The contribution of energy efficiency to sustainable development in developing countries

The demand for energy services is growing rapidly in developing countries. Low levels of energy efficiency in electric power supply and in energy use mean that the energy sector threatens to absorb an intolerably high share of available financial resources. Energy inefficiency also contributes to local and global environmental problems. A strategy of vigorously improving energy efficiency is thus a key element of a sustainable development path. Results reported in this paper show that there is considerable room for efficiency improvement in both existing and new capital stocks, but a much larger effort than presently underway is essential if the potential is to be realized. Assistance from the industrialized countries can play a major role in such an effort.     

An environmental assessment of food supply chains: a case study on dessert apples

The contemporary food system provides consumers with convenience, extensive choice, and the year-round availability of fresh produce. In this paper these achievements are recognized within the context of the associated environmental impacts. While many analyses have considered the energy and material efficiency of various options for food production and packaging, very few studies have investigated the environmental impacts of the transport components of food supply chains. This is surprising, given that the global sourcing of food produce, centralized distribution systems, and shopping by car have become prevalent in recent decades and have contributed to an increase in the distance between producer and consumer or “food miles.” In a case study the transport energy consumption is calculated for all possible ways in which dessert apples can be supplied to the UK consumer. The aim is to assess the environmental performance of the predominant fresh produce supply chains and to investigate claims that localized systems are more environmentally efficient. The main criteria used to compare the environmental efficiency in alternative food supply chains are the transport-related fossil-fuel energy consumption and associated carbon dioxide emissions. Analysis of the empirical data shows that transportation is now responsible for a considerable fraction of the total energy consumption in the life cycle of fresh apples, and in most cases exceeds the energy consumed in commercial apple cultivation. By developing local production and marketing systems for fresh products, transport demand can be reduced and many of the environmental impacts associated with existing supply chains can be avoided. The results of the study are then discussed in relation to the wider issues of transport policy, international trade, food security, and product-related environmental information for consumers.     

Implications of Upstream Flow Availability for Watershed Surface Water Supply across the Conterminous United States

Although it is well established that the availability of upstream flow (AUF) affects downstream water supply, its significance has not been rigorously categorized and quantified at fine resolutions. This study aims to fill this gap by providing a nationwide inventory of AUF and local water resource, and assessing their roles in securing water supply across the 2,099 8‐digit hydrologic unit code watersheds in the conterminous United States (CONUS). We investigated the effects of river hydraulic connectivity, climate variability, and water withdrawal, and consumption on water availability and water stress (ratio of demand to supply) in the past three decades (i.e., 1981–2010). The results show that 12% of the CONUS land relied on AUF for adequate freshwater supply, while local water alone was sufficient to meet the demand in another 74% of the area. The remaining 14% highly stressed area was mostly found in headwater areas or watersheds that were isolated from other basins, where stress levels were more sensitive to climate variability. Although the constantly changing water demand was the primary cause of escalating/diminishing stress, AUF variation could be an important driver in the arid south and southwest. This research contributes to better understanding of the significance of upstream–downstream water nexus in regional water availability, and this becomes more crucial under a changing climate and with intensified human activities.     

Urban household energy use patterns in Nigeria

Urban household energy use accounts for a large proportion of commercial fuel consumption in Nigeria. As population and urbanization increase, consumption is expected to rise rapidly in the future. It is therefore important to have information on the utilization pattern and factors driving consumption of urban household energy. Such information will be useful within the national energy planning framework for deriving strategies for a more rational energy utilization and increased reliability of energy supply to the urban household. In this paper, the major results from an urban household survey are presented. In the survey, data on various factors including energy consumption by income group, fuel preferences, sources and reliability of energy supply, and expenditure on energy are collected and analysed. Major conclusions are drawn on the possibilities for fuel supply/demand balance, and strategies for efficient energy utilization in the urban household .     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The pressure on water resources from energy resource development and transformation is likely to be greater in the future than it has been in the past. A rational resolution of the political problems that this situation will generate requires that: 1) planning based on predictions of future energy supply and demand be replaced by scenario, or “what if?” analysis; 2) full attention be paid to the uncertainties in per-unit-energy water requirements; 3) suitable stochastic measures of water availability be used to compare water supply with water demand; 4) realistic ecological criteria, and other alternative use criteria, be developed for estimating impacts of water withdrawn or consurned for energy development; 5) human consequences of ecological impaccts are described in a manner that will allow the political process to intervene in an optimum manner to allocate water resources.     

Managing Water Stress: The Logic of Demand Side Infrastructure Planning

Management of water supply in Britain is increasingly facing up to the problems posed by supply-led strategies. Although the eradication of water stress has traditionally been viewed as a techno-managerial problem, with supply being increased to meet rising demand, this is no longer possible as a general solution. Pressures both from government and from voluntary bodies are leading to approaches which manage the level of demand, and which recognize that water may, for various reasons, be in relatively short supply. The issues are illustrated by a case study of a recent tourist development, in which demand side management measures were extensively utilized.     

A Level‐of‐Service Concept for Planning Future Water Supply Projects under Probabilistic Demand and Supply Framework

One of the most challenging tasks of water supply utilities is planning the timing and quantity of new water supply sources as demand for water consumption grows. Many water supply utilities target on meeting 100% of their customers' needs based on scenario‐based deterministic demand projections numbers even though there are uncertainties in both supply and demand values. This may result in under or overly conservative approach in assessing future needs. In this article, a level‐of‐service concept is introduced to capture a utility's willingness to accept a given level of risk, plan for it, and invoke a management strategy during extreme events than build a facility to accommodate those in planning for new water supply sources. Accounting for uncertainties in both supply and demand help quantify reliability by achieving a prescribed level of service. The major benefit of such an approach for planning future water supply is that it allows policy makers to evaluate the use of adaptive water management strategies and develop supply in an incremental fashion as demand warrants it. For example, if a given level of service cannot be reliably met with the existing system at a future time t, an incremental water supply project would come online to bring the required reliability level up but no more.     

MODELING OF WATER SUPPLY/DEMAND IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN, 1970–20201

ABSTRACT: The application of a water balance model in finding “solutions” to the supply/demand problem was demonstrated using the South Platte River basin as a case study. Solutions were ascertained by hand, using both “average” and “stress” supply/demand conditions, and were developed for 1980, 2000, and 2020; nonquantifiable boundary conditions were incorporated by judgement. The solution obtained for a particular set of conditions is not unique and has strong normative characteristics; thus it must be judged by various interest groups having different ethical positions. The water balance model has a tabular display format and so the “model” is merely a simple table, i.e., a “water balance table.” In this work the water balance table was displayed on an eight-foot by eight-foot color-coded magnetic board. The board provides a means to both find and display the needed supply/demand “solution.” The tabular display facilitates understanding of the systemwide solution and the formulation of value judgments. Based upon these value judgments and an initial “straw man” solution, successive negotiated solutions can be found which can minimize “conflict.”     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

An economic appraisal of the Australian oil and gas industry

The author assesses Australian oil and gas production within the context of overall domestic energy supply and demand. Future domestic production of petroleum is unlikely to meet more than 60% of domestic demand after this decade, although gas reserves should be adequate until 2000. Important economic issues - leasing, royalties, taxation, pricing, and exploration incentives - and their relationship to future supply and demand, are identified and evaluated.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

Regional industrial ecology: examples from regional economic systems of forest industry and energy supply in Finland

Industrial ecology (IE) promotes the development of industrial systems based on recycling of matter and cascading of energy through cooperation. In this paper, the local/regional industrial ecosystem approach is reflected in two examples from Finland. The local forest industry system is based on renewable resources, waste materials and energy utilisation between forestry companies, a saw-mill, a pulp mill, a paper mill and a forest industry power plant. Waste energy from electricity production is used for production of heat and process steam. Regional city energy supply systems in Finland are also to a large extent arranged around power plants that utilise waste energy. The potential of combining the forest industry system with the energy supply systems of cities is considered and the conditions for success in the Finnish case are discussed.     

Tri-generation investment analysis using Bayesian network: A case study

The increasing energy demand, increasing energy dependency, energy supply security, and environmental concerns have become a part of business policies since COP21 agreements in Paris, 2015. Combined cooling, heating, and power (CCHP or tri-generation) systems play an important role in paying the necessary attention to these policies. Tri-generation investment is a complex decision with hybrid use of energy resources. This article aims to reduce the complexity of this decision by the use of Bayesian belief networks in pre-investment stage of tri-generation investment project cycle. The proposed model gives an insight into decision analysis and helps the decision-makers either generate or purchase from it in order to meet the energy demand with different scenarios. The model is studied for a university case. The investment decision for a CCHP (tri-generation) system will be discussed as an alternative for purchasing the electricity and natural gas from the national grids.     

JAMAICA - A CASE STUDY OF ENERGY PLANNING

The analysis shows the impact of the 'New International Energy Order' on Jamaica, a developing country almost totally dependent on imported oil for satisfying national energy demand. The energy supply/demand situation between 1961 and 1976 and the structure of energy consumption by major sectors of the economy are discussed. The high income elasticity of commercial energy demand and the increase in the energy intensity of the economy is directly related to expansion of the alumina industry. The structural problems of decoupling GDP and energy growth are indicated. In particular, the impact of the 'New Energy Order' on the development prospects of major bauxite/alumina producing countries which are deficient in indigenous primary energy resources is assessed. Finally, the indigenous resource base is outlined and the major elements of the five-year (1978–1982) national energy plan summarized.     

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO₂ emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production.Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO₂ emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions.Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement.     

Toward a CO2 zero emissions energy system in the Middle East region

Climate change and energy security are global challenges requiring concerted attention and action by all of the world’s countries. Under these conditions, energy supplier and exporter countries in the Middle East region are experiencing further challenges, such as increasing domestic energy demand while energy exports have to concurrently be kept at high levels. Middle East countries process the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world and contribute a large fraction of the world’s CO₂ emissions from the use of these as fuels both domestically and internationally. This paper addresses different policies that could dramatically change the future course of the Middle East region toward a zero CO₂ emission energy system. To this aim, an integrated energy supply–demand model has been developed to analyze required commitments including renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and the potential of nuclear power, all of which should need to be considered in order to reduce CO₂ emissions by 2100. The results indicate that nearly 43% of the global energy of the Middle East region can be supplied from non-fossil fuel resources in 2100.     

Characterizing Drought in Irrigated Agricultural Systems: The Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI)

Quantifying surface water shortages in arid and semiarid agricultural regions is challenging because limited water supplies are distributed over long distances based on complex water management systems constrained by legal, economic, and social frameworks that evolve with time. In such regions, the water supply is often derived in a climate dramatically different from where the water is diverted to meet agricultural demand. The existing drought indices which rely on local climate do not portray the complexities of the economic and legal constraints on water delivery. Nor do these indices quantify the shortages that occur in drought. Therefore, this research proposes a methodological approach to define surface water shortages in irrigated agricultural systems using a newly developed index termed the Surface Water Delivery Index (SWDI). The SWDI can be used to uniformly quantify surface water deficits/shortages at the end of the irrigation season. Results from the SWDI clearly illustrate how water shortages in droughts identified by the existing indices (e.g., SPI and PDSI) vary strongly both within and between basins. Some surface water entities are much more prone to water shortages than other entities based both on their source of water supply and water right portfolios.     

Linking energy scenarios with metal demand modeling–The case of indium in CIGS solar cells

Some renewable energy technologies rely on the functionalities provided by geochemically scarce metals. One example are CIGS solar cells, an emerging thin film photovoltaic technology, which contain indium. In this study we model global future indium demand related to the implementation of various energy scenarios and assess implications for the supply system. Influencing parameters of the demand model are either static or dynamic and include technology shares, technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere. Parameters’ levels reflect pessimistic, reference, and optimistic development. The demand from other indium containing products is roughly estimated. For the reference case, the installed capacity of CIGS solar cells ranges from 12 to 387 GW in 2030 (31–1401 GW in 2050), depending on the energy scenario chosen. This translates to between 485 and 15,724 tonnes of primary indium needed from 2000 to 2030 (789–30,556 tonnes through 2050). One scenario exemplifies that optimistic assumptions for technological progress and handling in the anthroposphere can reduce cumulative primary indium demand by 43% until 2050 compared to the reference case, while with pessimistic assumptions the demand increases by about a factor of five. To meet the future indium demand, several options to increase supply are discussed: (1) expansion of zinc metal provision (indium is currently a by-product of zinc mining), (2) improving extraction efficiency, (3) new mining activities where indium is a by-product of other metals and (4) mining of historic residues. Potential future constraints and environmental impacts of these supply options are also briefly discussed.