Climate change and natural disasters: macroeconomic performance and distributional impacts

Commonly occurring natural events become natural disasters when they affect the population through death and injury, and/or through the destruction of natural and physical capital on which people rely for their livelihood and quality of life. Climate change plays a role in that it tends to increase the frequency and intensity of weather-related natural disasters. Additionally, climate change may put people at risk by influencing access to water, coastal flooding, disease and hunger, and leaving them with a more degraded environment, leading, in turn, to increased vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present a review and synthesis of the literature and case studies addressing differential impacts of climate change-related natural disasters on a society and its economy. Developed and developing countries show different vulnerabilities to natural disasters. Even within countries, impacts vary significantly across population and economic sectors. When losses from natural disasters are large, their cumulative effect can have notable macroeconomic impacts, which feed back to further pronounce existing income inequalities and lower income levels. Impacts tend to be most pronounced for women, the young and elderly, and people of ethnic or racial minorities.

Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe

Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.

The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany,the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south.

Training future experts in “biodiversity and ecosystem services”: a progress report

Biodiversity is essential for multiple aspects of human life and well-being, but many current assessments of the functioning of biodiversity and ecosystems, understanding of risks posed by environmental change and the best practice of their management of ecosystems are lacking a unified scientific and conceptual basis. Methods such as scenario analysis, and terms such as ecosystem services, are widely used, but their meaning is understood in many different ways depending on context, user needs and experience of researchers. In order to advance the conceptual basis for ecosystem analysis and management in a rapidly changing world, as well as the ability of young scientists to reflect upon these concepts, we have organised five 2-week-long summer schools in Peyresq, a remote village in the Southern French Alps. In total 173 participants have worked intensively with 69 experienced researchers and a team of conveners and tutors in order to discuss a broad range of views on topics on ecosystem analysis and functioning. Topics ranged from conditions of and threats to various ecosystems due to environmental change, models and scenarios for assessment, stakeholder perceptions and needs for information, to the social and economic contexts for biodiversity. We report our experience from these schools, present the training concept which has emerged from them and suggest lines of further development.

A spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of ecosystem service change in Europe

Environmental change alters ecosystem functioning and may put the provision of services to human at risk. This paper presents a spatially explicit and quantitative assessment of the corresponding vulnerability for Europe, using a new framework designed to answer multidisciplinary policy relevant questions about the vulnerability of the human-environment system to global change. Scenarios were constructed for a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate. These scenarios were used as inputs in a range of ecosystem models in order to assess the response of ecosystem function as well as the changes in the services they provide. The framework was used to relate the impacts of changing ecosystem service provision for four sectors in relation to each other, and to combine them with a simple, but generic index for societal adaptive capacity. By allowing analysis of different sectors, regions and development pathways, the vulnerability assessment provides a basis for discussion between stakeholders and policymakers about sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The influence of climate and dam construction on the Ibera wetlands, Argentina

The purpose of this work is to assess the impact on the Esteros del Ibera wetland ecosystem caused by the Yacyreta dam, a large hydroelectric power plant on the Parana River, Argentina, in comparison to other factors of environmental change. The project of the dam started around 1970. The power plant began operating in 1994. In 1989, the neighboring Ibera wetland ecosystem showed a substantial increase in the water level for which several different causes were conceivable, including climate change and the dam construction. We analyzed all existing hydrometeorological data and studied other changes that were observed in this ecosystem. A water balance model was used to analyze different scenarios. Increased groundwater inflow, generated since the construction of the dam, appears to be affecting the wetland more than any other factor. The study has implications for the assessment of global and regional consequences of building dams.

Policy sciences contributions to analysis to promote sustainability

The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for the policy sciences articles of this special feature.

The benefits of the Kyoto Protocol to developing countries

The Kyoto Protocol relies on incentive-based regulations layered underneath a global cap on net emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Kyoto Protocol are opportunities and constraints for signatory nations. Of concern to developing nations are the constraints the Kyoto Protocol could place on future growth. We examine the constraints and the opportunities offered to developing countries within the Kyoto Protocol. By identifying the potential costs and benefits the Kyoto Protocol has to offer to developing countries and by examining the incentives each create, we hope to spark serious investigations into ways to minimize the potential costs of entering the Kyoto Protocol and take full advantage of the potential benefits.

Willingness to pay and demand elasticities for two national parks: empirical evidence from two surveys in Pakistan

Using survey-based data approach for modeling the demand for environmental goods/resources, this study estimates income and price elasticities of demand for improved environmental quality of two National Parks in Northern Pakistan. The study uses data from two studies. The estimates indicate that improved environmental quality effects can be described as a luxury and an ordinary and price elastic service. Confidence intervals show however that the classification as a luxury is not statistically significant. Income elasticities of willingness to pay are estimated for a broad range of environmental services. The study finds that income and willingness to pay vary directly and significantly. The elasticity estimates, in general, are greater than zero, but less than unity. The study concludes that environmental improvements are more beneficial to low-income groups than for high-income groups.

The environmental impact of industrialization in East Asia and strategies toward sustainable development

The East Asian economy has been growing fast in recent years, and environmental stresses are building up rapidly. Transboundary air pollution, water shortages, drinking water contamination, freshwater and marine pollution, deforestation, climatic disasters, and other environmental problems are becoming serious threats to the well-being of people in this densely populated region. The ESI (environmental sustainability index) reported by the World Economic Forum in 2005 is a good indicator of the environmental status of the region; most East Asian countries ranked at the bottom. East Asia is not moving toward a sustainable society, and the environment will not sustain the current rate of economic development for long. The traditional culture of East Asia used to be sustainable, so we can learn much from our traditions. Land use should be planned from an ecological point of view so as to best preserve the land’s productivity and stability. There should be definite goals as to where and how much to preserve the three important ecological bases: forests, coastal wetlands and agricultural farms. The forest is the base for the terrestrial ecosystem, including flood control, water resources, and climate; the coastal wetland is the base for the marine ecosystem; farmland is the base for producing food. Within these defined goals, limits should be set on how much land can be utilized for activities like urban development, manufacturing, and recreation. Limits on the pollution load resulting from such activities should be set so as not to irreversibly damage the environment. Economic development should be planned to allow the use of energy and resources only after satisfying these constraints.

Accounting for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries

The underlying reason for the mismanagement of tropical nearshore fisheries is the implementation of policies and programs based on Western models and approaches, coupled with an inability and/or unwillingness to consider non-Western alternatives of empirically proven value. Such attitudes are embedded in donor and development agency behavior, and are demonstrated by the temperate bias in conventional approaches to fisheries education and management, with a corresponding lack of understanding of tropical milieux, and in the persistence of various prejudices. Adaptive Management, The Ecosystem Approach, Local Knowledge, and Protected Areas are discussed from the perspectives of Western models and pre-existing Pacific Island systems as alternative models. Given the parlous condition of the global environment and resources, the best non-Western pre-existing models and Western approaches must be blended to provide sustainable solutions.

Sustainable engineering education in the United States

Sustainable engineering is a conceptual and practical challenge to all engineering disciplines. Although the profession has experience with environmental dimensions of engineering activities that in some cases are quite deep, extending the existing body of practice to sustainable engineering by including social and cultural domains is a significant and non-trivial challenge. Nonetheless, progress is being made, as a recent study undertaken by the Center for Sustainable Engineering in the United States demonstrates.

Europe–Middle East–North Africa cooperation for sustainable electricity and water

This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in MENA is also described.

Building a freshman-year foundation for sustainability studies: Terrascope, a case study

Terrascope is a freshman learning community at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in which teams of students work to find solutions to large ‘unsolvable’ problems and to communicate about those problems with a wide variety of audiences in multiple formats. The program strongly promotes students’ autonomy in focusing and structuring their work, and student projects culminate in public presentations, both to general audiences and to panels of technical specialists. Students who have completed the program tend to show strong engagement with environmental and sustainability issues, as well as the skills and experience to work intensively on such issues within multidisciplinary teams. Here, we present the program as a case study, with some discussion of the factors that are key to its operation.

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

Commentary: the challenge of quantifying susceptibility to drought-related crisis

This paper is a response to a recent special issue of Regional Environmental Change, “Quantifying vulnerability to drought from different disciplinary perspectives” (vol. 8, number 4, 2008). In this paper, we examine some of the challenges facing efforts to understand vulnerability to drought through quantification as they are manifest in some of the articles in this special issue.

Motivation of Japanese companies to take environmental action to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions: an econometric analysis

To analyze the motivations of Japanese companies to take environmental actions to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, we used FY2006 research data and questioned Japanese industries regarding their reduction of GHG emissions. Empirical investigations revealed that voluntary targets set by industry organizations, government requirements, and advance responses to possible future regulations can positively influence environmental actions for GHG emission reduction; however, cost reductions and corporate social responsibility fulfillment cannot.

A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability

A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy and ecosystem management.

The ecological footprint: an exhibit at an intergenerational trial?

This paper aims at assessing the extent to which the ecological footprint indicator (EF) can be regarded as an exhibit allowing an intergenerational trial about the use of natural resources. For that purpose, we examine various criticisms questioning the relevancy of EF measures for the study of environmental justice between generations. We explore the difficulties raised by the physical—and highly aggregated—nature of EF measures, as well as problems related to the number, the possible non-existence, and the tastes of future generations. The extent to which postulates on nature’s regeneration and technological progress affect the significance of EF studies is also discussed. It is concluded that those criticisms, by identifying various weaknesses of EF measures for the study of intergenerational justice, point to several crucial refinements of existing EF-based analyses.

Population, environment and poverty in Pakistan: linkages and empirical evidence

This study explores the interlinkages among population, environment and poverty and presents empirical evidence in a developing country like Pakistan. It gives alternative views on population environment linkages. It explains poverty trap, market based harmony, and dual effect of poverty on the basis of a link between population growth and natural resource degradation. In addition, the paper also highlights social and political instability through population-poverty-environment spiral. It also presents empirical evidence on population-environment-poverty nexus in Pakistan. It also compares environmental sustainability index and human development index for selected Asian countries. The paper also gives scores for different components of environmental sustainability index for Pakistan and compares these with India. The paper concludes that the causal relationship between poverty and environment works in both directions, often through changes in GDP and population. Population stress does not have any significant direct effect on all aspects of environmental status in Pakistan.