Effects of ozone exposure in open-top chambers on poplar (Populus nigra) and beech (Fagus sylvatica): a comparison

Rooted cuttings of poplar (Populus nigra) and seedlings of beech (Fagus sylvatica) were exposed to ozone in open-top chambers for one growing season. Three treatments were applied: charcoal-filtered (CF), non-filtered (NF) and non-filtered air plus 30 ppb (nl l(-1)) ozone (NF+). Extra ozone was only added on clear days, from 09:00 until 17:00-20:00. The AOT40s (accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb), calculated from April to September were 4055 ppb.h for the NF and 8880 ppb.h for the NF+ treatments. For poplar ozone exposure caused highly significant reductions in growth rate, light-saturated net CO(2) assimilation rate, stomatal conductance, F(v)/F(m) and chlorophyll content. The largest effects were observed in August at which time ozone concentrations were elevated. A reduction was noticed in new leaf production, while accelerated ageing and visible damage to leaves caused high leaf losses. For beech the responses were similar but less pronounced: ozone exposure resulted in non-significant growth reductions, slight changes in light-saturated photosynthesis and accelerated leaf abscission. The chlorophyll content of beech leaves was not affected by the ozone treatments. The results confirmed previous observations that fast-growing tree species, such as most poplar species and hybrids, are more sensitive and responsive to tropospheric ozone than slower-growing species, such as beech. The growth reductions observed and reported here for beech were within the range of those reported in relationship to the AOT40 (accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb) critical level for ozone.     

Modelling critical levels of ozone for the forested area of austria modifications of the aot40 concept

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Ozone is the most important air pollutant in Europe for forest ecosystems and the increase in the last decades is significant. The ozone impact on forests can be calculated and mapped based on the provisional European Critical Level (AOT40 = accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb, 10,000 ppb x h for 6 months of one growing season calculated for 24 h day(-1)). For Norway spruce, the Austrian main tree species, the ozone risk was assessed in a basis approach and because the calculations do not reflect the health status of forests in Austria, the AOT40 concept was developed. METHODS: Three approaches were outlined and maps were generated for Norway spruce forests covering the entire area of Austria. The 1st approach modifies the AOT40 due to the assumption that forests have adapted to the pre-industrial levels of ozone, which increase with altitude (AOTalt). The 2nd approach modifies the AOT40 according to the ozone concentration in the sub-stomata cavity. This approach is based on such factors as light intensity and water vapour saturation deficit, which affect stomatal uptake (AOTsto). The 3rd approach combines both approaches and includes the hemeroby. The pre-industrial ozone level approach was applied for autochthonous ('natural') forest areas, the ozone-uptake approach for non-autochthonous ('altered') forest areas. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The provisional Critical Level (AOT40) was established to allow a uniform assessment of the ozone risk for forested areas in Europe. In Austria, where ozone risk is assessed with utmost accuracy due to the dense grid of monitoring plots of the Forest Inventory and because the continuously collected data from more than 100 air quality measuring stations, an exceedance up to the five fold of the Critical Level was found. The result could lead to a yield loss of up to 30-40% and to a severe deterioration in the forest health status. However, the data of the Austrian Forest Inventory and the Austrian Forest Damage Monitoring System do not reflect such an ozone impact. Therefore, various approaches were outlined including the tolerance and avoidance mechanisms of Norway spruce against ozone impact. Taking into consideration the adaptation of forests to the pre-industrial background level of ozone, the AOT40 exceedances are markedly reduced (1st approach). Taking into account the stomatal uptake of ozone, unrealistic high amounts of exceedances up to 10,000 ppb x h were found. The modelled risk does not correspond with the health status and the wood increment of the Austrian forests (2nd approach). Consolidating the forgoing two approaches, a final map including the hemeroby was generated. It became clear that the less natural ('altered') forested regions are highly polluted. This means, that more than half of the spruce forests are endangered by ozone impact and AOT40 values of up to 30,000 ppb x h occur (3rd approach). CONCLUSIONS: The approaches revealed that a plausible result concerning the ozone impact on spruce forests in Austria could only be reached by combining pre-industrial ozone levels, ozone flux into the spruce needles and the hemeroby of forests.     

Ozone exposure thresholds and foliar injury on forest plants in Switzerland

Canton Ticino in southern Switzerland is exposed to some of the highest concentrations of tropospheric ozone in Europe. During recent field surveys in Canton Ticino, foliar symptoms identical to those caused by ozone have been documented on native tree and shrub species. In Europe, the critical ozone level for forest trees has been defined at an AOT40 of 10 ppm.h O3 (10 ppm.h accumulated exposure of ozone over a threshold of 40 ppb) during daylight hours over a six-month growing season. The objective of this study was to determine the amount of ambient ozone required to induce visible foliar symptoms on various forest plant species in southern Switzerland. Species were grown within eight open-top chambers and four open plots at the Vivaio Lattecaldo Cantonal Forest Nursery in Ticino, Switzerland. Species differed significantly in terms of the ppb.h exposures needed to cause visible symptoms. The most to least symptomatic species grown within open-plots in this study rank as Prunus serotina, Salix viminalis, Vibrnum lantana, Rhamnus cathartica, Betula pendula, Rumex obtusifolius, Sambucus racemosa, Morus nigra, Prunus avium, Fraxinus excelsior, Rhamnus frangula, Alnus viridis, Fagus sylvatica and Acer pseudoplatanus. Similar rankings were obtained in the non-filtered chamber plots. The ranking of species sensitivity closely follows AOT values for the occurrence of initial symptoms and symptom progression across the remainder of the exposure season. Species that first showed evidence of foliar injury also demonstrated the most sensitivity throughout the growing season, with symptoms rapidly advancing over ca. 25-30% of the total plant leaf surfaces by the end of the observation period. Conversely, those species that developed symptoms later in the season had far less total injury to plant foliage by the end of the observation period (1.5 to < 5% total leaf area injured). The current European ambient ozone standard may be insufficient to protect native plant species from visible foliar injury, and many more native species may be sensitive to ozone-induced foliar injury than are currently known.     

Using plant biomonitors and flux modelling to develop O3 dose-response relationships in Catalonia

We used tobacco Bel-W3 biomonitoring data and ozone flux modelling (WINDEP model) with the aim of developing the absorbed dose-response relationship, and comparing this approach with the most commonly used AOT40 (the sum of hourly ozone concentrations above a cut-off of 40 ppb during daylight hours, when global radiation exceeds 50 W m(-2)) in the estimation of exposure-damage curves. Leaf damage values were more related to OAD(15 days, potential) (potential ozone absorbed dose calculated over 15 consecutive days) than to AOT40 in all the studied stations. An OAD(15 days, potential) of 180 mg m(-2) was found to be the threshold for damage to the most sensitive species in this region under well watered conditions. The results show the applicability of the flux approach for risk assessment at the local scale, the improvement of the ozone damage estimation when the potential absorbed dose is modelled and used instead of just the ozone exposure, and finally, the possibilities opened by the use of biomonitoring networks.     

Ozone air pollution and foliar injury development on native plants of Switzerland

The objectives of this study were to examine the foliar sensitivity to ozone exposure of 12 tree, shrub, and herbaceous species native to southern Switzerland and determine the seasonal cumulative ozone exposures required to induce visible foliar injury. The study was conducted from the beginning of May through the end of August during 2000 and 2001 using an open-top chamber research facility located within the Lattecaldo Cantonal Forest Nursery in Canton Ticino, southern Switzerland (600 m asl). Plants were examined daily and dates of initial foliar injury were recorded in order to determine the cumulative AOT40 ppb h ozone exposure required to cause visible foliar injury. Plant responses to ozone varied significantly among species; 11 species exhibited visible symptoms typical of exposures to ambient ozone. The symptomatic species (from most to least sensitive) were Populus nigra, Viburnum lantana, Salix alba, Crataegus monogyna, Viburnum opulus, Tilia platyphyllos, Cornus alba, Prunus avium, Fraxinus excelsior, Ribes alpinum, and Tilia cordata; Clematis spp. did not show foliar symptoms. Of the 11 symptomatic species, five showed initial injury below the critical level AOT40 10 ppmh O3 in the 2001 season.     

Modelling stomatal ozone flux across Europe

A model has been developed to estimate stomatal ozone flux across Europe for a number of important species. An initial application of this model is illustrated for two species, wheat and beech. The model calculates ozone flux using European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) model ozone concentrations in combination with estimates of the atmospheric, boundary layer and stomatal resistances to ozone transfer. The model simulates the effect of phenology, irradiance, temperature, vapour pressure deficit and soil moisture deficit on stomatal conductance. These species-specific microclimatic parameters are derived from meteorological data provided by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI), together with detailed land-use and soil type maps assembled at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Modelled fluxes are presented as mean monthly flux maps and compared with maps describing equivalent values of AOT40 (accumulated exposure over threshold of 40 ppb or nl l(-1)), highlighting the spatial differences between these two indices. In many cases high ozone fluxes were modelled in association with only moderate AOT40 values. The factors most important in limiting ozone uptake under the model assumptions were vapour pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture deficit (for Mediterranean regions in particular) and phenology. The limiting effect of VPD on ozone uptake was especially apparent, since high VPDs resulting in stomatal closure tended to co-occur with high ozone concentrations. Although further work is needed to link the ozone uptake and deposition model components, and to validate the model with field measurements, the present results give a clear indication of the possible implications of adopting a flux-based approach for future policy evaluation.     

Critical levels for ozone effects on vegetation in Europe

The evidence of detrimental effects of ozone on vegetation in Europe, and the need to develop international control policies to reduce ozone exposures which are based on the effects of the pollutant, has led to attempts to define so-called critical levels of ozone above which adverse effects on trees, crops and natural vegetation may occur. This review is a critical assessment of the scientific basis of the concepts used to define critical levels for ozone and identifies the key limitations and uncertainties involved. The review focuses on the Level I critical level approach, which provides an environmental standard or threshold to minimise the effects of ozone on sensitive receptors, but does not seek to quantify the impacts of exceeding the critical level under field conditions. The concept of using the AOT (accumulated exposure over a threshold) to define long-term ozone exposure is demonstrated to be appropriate for several economically important species. The use of 40 ppb (giving the AOT40 index) as a threshold concentration gives a good linear fit to experimental data from open-top chambers for arable crops, but it is less certain that it provides the best fit to data for trees or semi-natural communities. Major uncertainties in defining critical level values relate to the choice of response parameter and species; the absence of data for many receptors, especially those of Mediterranean areas; and extrapolation to field conditions from relatively short-term open-top chamber experiments. The derivation of critical levels for long-lived organisms, such as forest trees, may require the use of modelling techniques based on physiological data from experimental studies. The exposure-response data which have been applied to derive critical levels should not be used to estimate the impacts of ozone over large areas, because of the uncertainties associated with extrapolation from the open-top chamber method, especially for forest trees, and because of spatial variation in atmospheric and environmental conditions, which may alter ozone uptake.     

Relations between crown condition and ozone and its dependence on environmental factors

It is now widely accepted that stomatal ozone uptake provides a more reliable indicator for the assessment of risk of ozone damage to forest trees than ozone exposure. Thus, environmental factors influencing stomatal opening strongly affect the sensitivity of forest trees towards high ozone concentrations. In this study the hydrological model WAWAHAMO is used to simulate stomatal opening dependent on air temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and soil water potential. Then, a statistical analysis was carried out to investigate relations between crown defoliation and ozone concentrations dependent on stomatal opening. The results support the hypothesis that tropospheric ozone contributes to the observed crown defoliation. However, environmental factors strongly affect tree response to high ozone concentrations.     

Instrumental recording and biomonitoring of ambient ozone in the Greek countryside

Among eight commercial Greek varieties of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) tested for their ozone-sensitivity levels, the Zichnomirodata (KK6/5) variety was found to be the most sensitive, although less sensitive than the well-known super-sensitive Bel-W3. Besides qualitative differences in the appearance of macroscopic symptoms these two varieties can be used simultaneously as a reliable pair of ozone bioindicators. The occurrence of ozone in the Greek countryside was surveyed by biomonitoring in 14 rural regions over the country and by a simultaneous biomonitoring and instrumental recording of ozone concentrations at a single remote side (Pournaria, Arcadia). Phytotoxic symptoms were observed mainly on the leaves of Bel-W3 and occasionally on those of Zichnomirodata varieties, suggesting that ozone levels were high enough to affect at least sensitive species. The instrumental monitoring (during a total period of 912 h) revealed maximum hourly O3 concentration 62 ppb, while the thresholds of 30, 40 and 50 ppb were exceeded for 40%, 20% and 6% of the recording period, respectively. The accumulated exposure over 40 ppb (AOT40) for the daylight hours over the 38 monitored days was 680 ppb h.     

Simulations of stomatal conductance and ozone uptake to Norway spruce saplings in open-top chambers

A simulation model was developed to estimate the stomatal conductance and ozone flux to Norway spruce saplings in open-top chambers. The model was parameterized against needle conductance measurements that were made on 4-6-year-old spruce saplings, grown in open-top chambers, in July-September during three different seasons. The spruce saplings were either maintained well watered or subject to a 7-8 week drought period in July-September each year. The simulated conductance showed a good agreement with the measured conductance for the well-watered as well as the drought stress-treated saplings. The simulations were significantly improved when different vapour pressure deficit (VPD) functions were applied for well-watered and drought-stressed spruce saplings. The cumulated ozone uptake which was calculated from the conductance simulations showed less variation between years, compared to the cumulative ozone exposure index AOT40 (accumulated exposure over a threshold of 40 ppb or nl l(-1)) for the corresponding time periods. Measurements in May 1995 demonstrated the occurrence of long-term 'memory-effects' from the drought stress treatments on the conductance. Memory-effects need to be considered when simulation models for stomatal conductance are to be applied to long-lived forest trees under a multiple stress situation.     

A comparison of two different approaches for mapping potential ozone damage to vegetation. A model study

Two very different types of approaches are currently in use today for indicating risk of ozone damage to vegetation in Europe. One approach is the so-called AOTX (accumulated exposure over threshold of Xppb) index, which is based upon ozone concentrations only. The second type of approach entails an estimate of the amount of ozone entering via the stomates of vegetation, the AFstY approach (accumulated stomatal flux over threshold of Y nmol m(-2) s(-1)). The EMEP chemical transport model is used to map these different indicators of ozone damage across Europe, for two illustrative vegetation types, wheat and beech forests. The results show that exceedences of critical levels for either type of indicator are widespread, but that the indicators give very different spatial patterns across Europe. Model simulations for year 2020 scenarios suggest reductions in risks of vegetation damage whichever indicator is used, but suggest that AOT40 is much more sensitive to emission control than AFstY values.     

Field responses of Prunus serotina and Asclepias syriaca to ozone around southern Lake Michigan

Higher ozone concentrations east of southern Lake Michigan compared to west of the lake were used to test hypotheses about injury and growth effects on two plant species. We measured approximately 1000 black cherry trees and over 3000 milkweed stems from 1999 to 2001 for this purpose. Black cherry branch elongation and milkweed growth and pod formation were significantly higher west of Lake Michigan while ozone injury was greater east of Lake Michigan. Using classification and regression tree (CART) analyses we determined that departures from normal precipitation, soil nitrogen and ozone exposure/peak hourly concentrations were the most important variables affecting cherry branch elongation, and milkweed stem height and pod formation. The effects of ozone were not consistently comparable with the effects of soil nutrients, weather, insect or disease injury, and depended on species. Ozone SUM06 exposures greater than 13 ppm-h decreased cherry branch elongation 18%; peak 1-h exposures greater than 93 ppb reduced milkweed stem height 13%; and peak 1-h concentrations greater than 98 ppb reduced pod formation 11% in milkweed.     

Tibouchina pulchra (Cham.) Cogn., a native Atlantic Forest species, as a bio-indicator of ozone: visible injury

Tibouchina pulchra saplings were exposed to carbon filtered air (CF), ambient non-filtered air (NF) and ambient non-filtered air+40 ppb ozone (NF+O3) 8 h per day during two months. The AOT40 values at the end of the experiment were 48, 910 and 12,895 ppb h(-1), respectively, for the three treatments. After 25 days of exposure (AOT40=3871 ppb h(-1)), interveinal red stippling appeared in plants in the NF+O3 chamber. In the NF chamber, symptoms were observed only after 60 days of exposure (AOT40=910 ppb h(-1)). After 60 days, injured leaves per plant corresponded to 19% in NF+O3 and 1% in the NF treatment; and the average leaf area injured was 7% within the NF+O3 and 0.2% within the NF treatment. The extent of leaf area injured (leaf injury index) was mostly explained by the accumulated exposure of ozone (r2=0.89; p<0.05).     

Near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares

Large petrochemical flares, common in the Houston Ship Channel (the Ship Channel) and other industrialized areas in the Gulf of Mexico region, emit hundreds to thousands of pounds per hour of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). We employed fine horizontal resolution (200 m?×?200 m) in a three-dimensional (3D) Eulerian chemical transport model to simulate two historical Ship Channel flares. The model reasonably reproduced the observed ozone rise at the nearest monitoring stations downwind of the flares. The larger of the two flares had an olefin emission rate exceeding 1400 lb/hr. In this case, the model simulated a rate of increase in peak ozone greater than 40 ppb/hr over a 12 km?×?12 km horizontal domain without any unusual meteorological conditions. In this larger flare, formaldehyde emissions typically neglected in official inventories enhanced peak ozone by as much as 16 ppb and contributed over 10 ppb to ambient formaldehyde up to ～8 km downwind of the flare. The intense horizontal gradients in large flare plumes cannot be simulated by coarse models typically used to demonstrate ozone attainment. Moreover, even the relatively dense monitoring network in the Ship Channel may not be able to detect many transient high ozone events (THOEs) caused by industrial flare emissions in the absence of stagnant air recirculation or stalled sea breeze fronts, even though such conditions are unnecessary for the occurrence of THOEs.

Implications: Flare minimization may be an important strategy to attain the U.S. federal ozone standard in industrialized areas, and to avoid inordinate exposure to formaldehyde in neighborhoods surrounding petrochemical facilities. Moreover, air quality monitoring networks, emission inventories, and chemical transport models with higher spatial and temporal resolution and more refined speciation of HRVOCs are needed to better account for the near-source air quality impacts of large olefin flares.     

Background ozone monitoring and phytodetection in the greater rural area of Corinth--Greece

Natural background ozone levels were monitored in three places within the greater rural area of Corinth, namely Bogdani Hill, Astronomical Observatory of Krionerion, and Kiato, and compared with ambient ozone monitored in the metropolitan area of Athens. Measurements were made sequentially, for a few weeks at each place, during the summer of 2000. In addition, ozone phytodetection, using tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) plants of the Bel-W3 and Zichnomirodata varieties, was conducted in 12 places (the above included). Moreover, stomatal conductance was measured in the Bel-W3 plants, as well as in leaves of cultivated grape-vines (Vitis vinifera L.) and in needles of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) trees and compared with the diurnal pattern of ozone concentrations.The 24 and 12 (08:00-20:00) hourly averages of ozone concentrations were high in Athens (37; 51 ppb), at Bogdani Hill (53; 56 ppb) and at the Astronomical Observatory (56; 55 ppb), but relatively low in Kiato (30; 34 ppb). Furthermore, the average daily AOT40 (accumulated exposure over 40 ppb for the daylight hours) (ppbh) was 193 in Athens, 212 at Bogdani Hill, 192 at the Astronomical Observatory and 47 in Kiato. Ozone concentrations exhibited the usual diurnal pattern in Athens (altitude 50 m), where they were maximum during midday and early afternoon hours, as well as at Bogdani Hill (300 m) and in Kiato (5 m) where, however, they were maximal 1-3 h later. At the Astronomical Observatory (altitude 920 m) ozone remained constant during both daylight and night hours. The differences in diurnal patterns are consistent with those in places of different elevation, reported elsewhere.The Bel-W3 plants were injured at all 12 places; Zichnomirodata plants exhibited lower injury and only in some of the places; probable ozone symptoms were also observed on vine plants and pine trees. The greatest injury was observed at the high altitude places of Astronomical Observatory and Mougostos. Stomatal conductance, in all three species, peaked during morning and early midday hours when ozone levels were higher in the high altitude, and lower in the low altitude, places.     

Suitability of Nicotiana tabacum 'Bel W3' for biomonitoring ozone in São Paulo, Brazil

Nicotiana tabacum 'Bel W3' is a widely used sensitive bioindicator for ambient ozone, but it is rarely used in tropical countries. Our goal was to determine the suitability of this plant for biomonitoring ozone in the city of S?o Paulo by evaluating the relationships between leaf necroses and ozone under field conditions and measurements of chlorophyll a fluorescence and antioxidants in plants exposed to different concentrations of ozone in closed chambers. While a weak linear relationship between leaf injury and ozone concentrations (R(2)=0.10) was determined in the field, a strong linear relationship was observed in the chamber experiments. Maximum leaf injury was observed in plants submitted to 40 ppb, which coincided with a significant decrease in fluorescence and total ascorbic acid. The relationship between leaf damage observed in the field and ozone was improved when the concentrations were limited to 40 ppb (R(2)=0.28).     

Estimates of ozone AOT40 from passive sampling in forest sites in South-Western Europe

Weekly-fortnightly ozone (O3) concentrations measured by passive sampling at 81 forest monitoring plots in France, Italy, Spain and Switzerland over the period 2000-2002 were used to estimate the cumulative exposure index AOT40. The estimation method is based on a deterministic model which describes the O3 daily profile as a function of relative altitude (the difference between the altitude of the site and the lowest altitude within a 5 km radius) and the time of the day. Estimated AOT40 values (AOT40(e)) were evaluated against co-located automatic measurement stations and with 14 independent automatic stations located throughout Italy whose weekly mean O3 values were used to simulate passive samplers. AOT40 can be predicted by modelling passive sampling data (R2: 0.90; P<0.0001, SE of estimates: 3271 ppb h), although considerable deviations can occur for individual sites. Estimated AOT40 shows a distinct, significant latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. Taking the 3-year average as a whole, exceedance of critical level of 5000 ppb h occurs at 77-100% of the monitored sites, respectively.     

Response of native plants of northeastern United States and southern Spain to ozone exposures; determining exposure/response relationships

Tropospheric ozone has been identified as the most important regional scale air pollutant across much of eastern United States of America and many areas of Mediterranean climes in southern Europe. Recent field surveys in the northeastern USA and in southeastern Spain have revealed many additional plant species that exhibit symptoms typical of ozone-induced injuries. Objectives of this study were to confirm ozone as the cause of the observed foliar symptoms, determine ozone induced exposure/response relationships, and identify possible bio-indicator species. Thirteen native species of northeastern USA and 27 native species of southeastern Spain were selected for study. Plant species were exposed to ozone within 16 CSTR chambers in a greenhouse during the summer seasons of 2000 and 2001; ozone exposures of 30, 60, 90, and 120 ppb were delivered for 7 h/day, 5 days/week. Results have confirmed that with few exceptions, symptoms observed in the field were induced by exposures to ambient ozone. Species differed significantly in terms of the exposures required for the initiation of visible symptoms and subsequent injury progression.     

Differences in growth, leaf senescence and injury, and stomatal density in birch (Betula pendula Roth.) in relation to ambient levels of ozone in Finland

The differences in growth, leaf senescence, visible ozone injuries and stomatal density between one coastal site (natural ozone) and two inland sites (natural and elevated ozone) in Finland were determined for saplings of Betula pendula clones grown under open-field conditions during two growing seasons. Responses in growth, leaf senescence, visible injuries, and stomatal density were determined in relation to cumulative ozone exposure accumulated over the thresholds of 30, 40 and 50 ppb (10(9)) during the exposure period. In addition, the effects of the different ozone exposures on ultrastructure of chloroplasts were studied. Increasing ozone exposure resulted in reduced shoot dry weight, stimulated (first year) or reduced (second year) height growth, accelerated autumn yellowing of leaves, increased stomatal density, visible symptoms and chloroplast injuries, and increased number and size of plastoglobuli. Newly expanded mature leaves in midsummer were more sensitive to ozone episodes than younger developing leaves in the early growing season. In most parameters, the best correlation was achieved with the exposure index AOT30. Ozone risk for birch is highest in the southern coastal area of Finland, where background ozone concentrations are higher than in inland sites.     

An enhanced ozone forecasting model using air mass trajectory analysis

An enhanced ozone forecasting model using nonlinear regression and an air mass trajectory parameter has been developed and field tested. The model performed significantly better in predicting daily maximum 1-h ozone concentrations during a five-year model calibration period (1993–1997) than did a previously reported regression model. This was particularly true on the 28 “high ozone” days ([O₃]>120 ppb) during the period, for which the mean absolute error (MAE) improved from 21.7 to 12.1 ppb. On the 77 days meteorologically conducive to high ozone, the MAE improved from 12.2 to 9.1 ppb, and for all 580 calibration days the MAE improved from 9.5 to 8.35 ppb. The model was field-tested during the 1998 ozone season, and performed about as expected. Using actual meteorological data as input for the ozone predictions, the MAE for the season was 11.0 ppb. For the daily ozone forecasts, which used meteorological forecast data as input, the MAE was 13.4 ppb. The high ozone days were all anticipated by the ozone forecasters when the model was used for next day forecasts.