芦芽山不同海拔灌丛土壤细菌群落组成和多样性研究

揭示土壤细菌群落组成和多样性海拔格局及其驱动因素一直是生态环境研究的热点问题。以芦芽山灌丛土壤细菌群落为研究对象,沿海拔梯度分别在高海拔（2 668-2 689 m）、中海拔（1 835-1 855 m）和低海拔（1 368-1 392 m）选取鬼箭锦鸡儿灌丛、中国沙棘灌丛和黄刺玫灌丛进行植被调查和土壤取样,利用Illumina MiSeq测序技术对3个不同海拔段土壤细菌群落特征进行分析。研究结果表明,变形菌门（Proteobacteria）、放线菌门（Actinobacteria）、绿弯菌门（Chloroflexi）、酸杆菌门（Acidobacteria）、拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）、芽单胞菌门（Gemmatimonadetes）是灌丛样地土壤细菌优势类群。随着海拔的升高,变形菌门的相对丰度逐渐增加,而放线菌门的相对丰度却逐渐减少,土壤细菌群落多样性整体上呈现先上升后下降的趋势。线性判别分析（LEfSe）分析表明低海拔样地和高海拔样地土壤细菌群落具有较多的显著差异物种（P<0.05）,在组成上表现出一定的特有性,而中海拔样地的特有性相对较低,但多样性相对较高。相关性...     

云南稻种磷高效特性相关性状的生态差异

云南不仅是世界稻种(Oryza sativa L.)最大的遗传和生态多样性中心之一,也是中国土壤类型最丰富的地区;中国南方和云南耕地65%以上缺乏有效磷,土壤缺磷已成为稻作生产的主要限制因子.该文中,缺磷(速效磷6.26 mg·kg-1)与适磷(速效磷40 mg·kg-1)酸性红壤进行比较,以相对茎蘖数(RTA)、相对总质量(RTB)、相对地上质量(RDWU)和相对地下质量(RDWG)为参数,研究了来自云南省16个州市5个稻作区577份水稻核心种质的磷高效基因型及其生态差异,结果表明:低磷胁迫下云南稻核心种质的相对茎蘖数、相对总质量、相对地上质量和相对地下质量密切相关,这4个性状是水稻磷高效鉴定较可靠和方便的指标,并筛选出10个磷高效品种;磷高效基因型在籼粳间存在较大差异,但丁颖分类性状中的水陆、粘糯间差异较小;水稻磷高效品种广泛分布于5个稻作区和绝大多数州市,特别是磷高效极强品种主要来自云南稻种的遗传多样性中心(思茅、临沧、西双版纳、德宏和文山州)和基因多样性中心(南部边缘水陆兼作区).这些结果有力地支持了水稻磷高效特性与酸性红壤和遗传多样性中心有关,更好地理解水稻磷高效特性的地理生态和遗传多样性机制.     

芦芽山土壤有机碳和全氮沿海拔梯度变化规律

研究不同海拔梯度和坡向的土壤碳氮分布,能在较小的空间尺度上反映不同气候状况下土壤碳氮分布规律,揭示多个互相关联的环境因子对土壤碳氮分布规律的综合影响。对山西省北部芦芽山芦芽山沿海拔梯度土壤有机碳和全氮含量的变化规律进行了分析。自海拔1703.1 m至2756.3 m每上升约50 m设置一个样带（共计21块）,每样带内布设30 m＆#215;30 m样地3个,每个样地内“S”形布点,分3层（0~10、10~25、25~40 cm）钻取土样。结果表明,在研究海拔范围内土壤垂直剖面自表层向下有机碳质量分数分别为（35.71±13.32）、（29.18±12.85）和（26.39±12.74） g＆#183; kg-1,全氮质量分数分别为（2.83±0.93）、（2.38±0.84）和（2.12±0.80） g＆#183; kg-1。土壤有机碳和全氮含量的分布特征均表现为随海拔升高而增加的趋势,与海拔呈极显著的线性正相关。土壤有机碳含量与海拔线性模型的回归系数在10~25 cm土层最大,而全氮与海拔线性模型的回归系数随土层深度增加而递减。土壤有机碳含量最高值出现在较高海拔处寒温性针叶林下,而土壤全氮含量最高值出现在最高海拔的亚高山草甸。碳氮含量的剖面分布呈现为表层（0~10 cm）最高,随深度下降而递减。研究区土壤C/N值介于5~19,最小值为海拔最高（2756.3 m）的亚高山草甸,而最大值为较高海拔分布的寒温性针叶林（2332.6 m）,沿海拔梯度表现呈“Λ”型的变化趋势。     

贡嘎山高低海拔上优势杨柳科植物性别比例与繁殖特性北大核心CSCD

雌雄异株植物的性比问题一直是进化生物学的研究热点之一.为揭示杨柳科植物不同性比格局的内在机理,从繁殖投入、种群密度和传粉效率等方面对贡嘎山两个海拔高度（2 000和2 600 m）上冬瓜杨和川滇柳的性别比例与繁殖投入进行对比研究.结果显示：（1）低海拔下冬瓜杨和川滇柳雄雌性比（M/F）接近1：1平衡;而在高海拔区域出现性比失衡,即杨树偏雄（M/F=2.36,P=0.008）,而柳树偏雌（M/F=0.62,P=0.033）.（2）冬瓜杨和川滇柳种群密度随海拔升高均明显下降,但川滇柳密度显著高于冬瓜杨,柱头接收花粉数量亦显著高于冬瓜杨.（3）枝条水平上,杨柳的总繁殖结构生物量（花序干重＋种子干重）在两个海拔上都为雌株高于雄株;相对繁殖投入在低海拔时雌株高于雄株,高海拔上冬瓜杨雌株高于雄株,而川滇柳由于叶片的补偿生长,包括更高的叶片生物量投入和光合能力,导致相对繁殖投入雌雄间无显著差异.冬瓜杨雌株繁殖投入显著高于雄株,雌株对高海拔更敏感,因而高海拔时偏雄性.川滇柳的繁殖投入在海拔间无差异,加之传粉效率较高,可能容易产生花粉管竞争,从而偏雌性.本研究发现较之低海拔,贡嘎山上杨柳科植物在高海拔上叶与繁殖结构生物量权衡关系改变容易导致性比失衡,未来需在分子水平上,结合性别决定基因、性染色体和表观遗传学等进一步深入研究.     

海拔及细胞质背景对水稻测交群体遗传分化的影响

温度是导致水稻（Oryza sativa L.）遗传分化的一个重要环境因素,而海拔是导致环境温度差异的一个重要的地理因素。水稻的雄配子即花粉粒的活性极易受环境温度的影响。研究用来自云南2 670 m海拔的粳稻地方品种小麻谷与具籼稻细胞质背景的籼粳交后代品系南34正反交产生的F1,然后将其分布种植在海拔高低相差达1 800 m的4个海拔点并与育性稳定的1个滇Ⅰ型细胞质不育系杂交产生了8个测交群体,用SSR标记检测发现海拔因素和细胞质背景都对测交群体的遗传分化产生了影响。结果表明：同一海拔产生的正反交群体（合系42A//小麻谷/南34）间的遗传多样性具有比较明显的差异。正交组合F1（小麻谷×南34）在1 860 m的海拔产生的群体的遗传多样性最高,在1 600 m的海拔产生的群体的遗传多样性最低。在反交组合F1产生的群体中,群体的遗传多样性随产生群体海拔（400 m海拔除外）的升高而降低。利用Nei′s遗传距离评价各群体间的遗传分化,正反交组合F1产生测交群体间的遗传分化均高于同一组合在不同海拔下产生的测交群体之间的遗传分化,同一组合在4个海拔产生的测交群体间的遗传分化总体趋势是随海拔差异的增加而增大。研究证实了环境温度差异及细胞质背景导致F1产生的雄配子基因型发生选择,导致雄配子基因型的遗传比例偏离孟德尔规律,影响其后代群体的遗传多样性和遗传分化。     

转基因抗虫水稻生态安全性研究进展

我国转基因抗虫水稻的商业化种植已成为国内外广泛关注的热点问题.本文系统综述了转基因抗虫水稻的遗传转化、基因漂流、靶标害虫的抗性风险、对非靶标生物和稻田节肢动物群落的影响以及B t杀虫蛋白在土壤中的残留等方面的研究进展.现有研究表明,B t水稻对二化螟、三化螟和稻纵卷叶螟等主要靶标害虫具有较高的抗性水平,对稻飞虱、叶蝉、捕食性天敌等非靶标生物的生长发育和稻田节肢动物群落的稳定性无明显影响.靶标害虫的抗性和转基因水稻与杂草稻、野生稻之间的基因漂移风险是转基因抗虫水稻商业化种植的主要环境安全问题.参60     

云南稻核心种质苗期耐冷性及其地理生态差异

采用Nagamine等(1991)法研究了598份云南稻核心种质在稻作区划间、地州间苗期耐冷性强弱、变异程度及其地理生态差异。结果表明,稻作区划间苗期耐冷强弱差异较大,平均耐冷级别为:I(4.70)>II(4.78)>V(4.79)>III(5.34)>IV(5.36),40份强耐冷种质频率为II(45%)>I(25%)>III(22.5%)>V(5.0%)>IV(2.5%),其变异系数为II(32.22%)>I(31.28%)>V(29.65%)>III(19.66%)>IV(19.59%);揭示了苗期耐冷性与低温胁迫下水稻冬春育秧、冷泉水密切相关,其耐冷基因源是云南南部地区冬季育秧和滇中一带苗期倒春寒长期协同进化的结果;苗期耐冷种质广泛存在于热带、亚热带和温带地区,品种间苗期耐冷差异也明显。云南稻核心种质16个地州平均苗期耐冷强弱差异较大。根据气候、生态、云南稻种多样性及其苗期耐冷性等将云南稻作区划分为重冷害多样性贫乏区、冷害多样性中区和轻冷害区三部分。其中,曲靖、大理、楚雄、昆明和丽江5个地州平均耐冷级别3.65~4.32,0—2级苗期强耐冷种质占27.5%(2.5%~10%)和高海拔冷泉水苗期灌溉,属于重冷害多样性贫乏区;文山、红河、思茅、保山、德宏和临沧6个地州平均耐冷级别4.45~5.40,0—2级苗期耐冷种质占70%(5%~30%)和冬春育秧,属于冷害多样性中区;怒江、玉溪、昭通、迪庆和西双版纳5个地州平均耐冷级别5.05~5.87,0—2级苗期耐冷种质占2.5%(0~2.5%),属于轻冷害多样性扩散区。水稻冬春育秧和高海拔冷泉水灌溉在云南稻核心种质苗期耐冷基因源演化中起了重要作用。     

利用CRISPR/Cas9技术编辑水稻负调控抗病基因OsEDR1及基因功能分析

拟南芥EDR1(Enhanced Disease Resistance1),一个Raf样MAPKKK蛋白激酶,通过级联蛋白激酶途径MKK4/MKK5-MPK3/MPK6负调控水杨酸诱导的免疫防卫反应.为研究水稻OsEDR1基因的功能,利用CRISPR/Cas9技术创制OsEDR1的功能缺失突变体的同时,构建过表达载体p TCK303-Ubi-OsEDR1转化水稻,获得转基因植株,最后接种白叶枯病菌.此外,也构建pBI1.4t-35S-OsEDR1表达载体并转化拟南芥,分析转基因植株的白粉菌抗病性.结果表明利用CRISPR/Cas9技术创制了单碱基插入的OsEDR1功能缺失突变体;白叶枯病原菌Xoo PXO99的接种实验表明,该功能缺失突变体与日本晴相比,病斑长度减少约50%,增强了水稻对Xoo PXO99的抗性.定量PCR和接种实验结果显示在日本晴中过量表达OsEDR1增强了水稻对Xoo PXO86的感病性.在拟南芥edr1突变体中异源表达OsEDR1无法抑制edr1突变体对白粉菌的抗病和白粉菌诱导的细胞死亡.综上所述,OsEDR1负调控水稻对白叶枯的抗病反应和自发的细胞死亡,可能与拟南芥所依赖的防御反应信号通路不同相关;结果可为下一步深入研究EDR1基因的作用机制和在水稻育种中的应用提供参考.(图4表1参29)     

湖南八大公山两栖动物多样性时空格局观测

研究多样性的时空格局是探明生物多样性与生态系统相互关系的有效途径,能为保护政策的制定提供理论依据。于2018年对八大公山国家级自然保护区两栖动物物种多样性的时空格局进行观测,从低海拔至高海拔选取10条样线,在4、6、8和10月进行4次调查。结果显示,两栖动物物种组成和物种多样性指数(物种丰富度、香农-威纳指数、Pielou均匀度指数)随着时间、空间的变化存在明显不同。在时间尺度上,4月的优势种为福建掌突蟾和华南湍蛙;6月的优势种为花臭蛙;8月的优势种为花臭蛙和绿臭蛙;棘腹蛙和华南湍蛙在10月占绝对优势。在空间尺度上,低海拔样线的优势种为花臭蛙和华南湍蛙;中海拔样线的优势种为福建掌突蟾和黄斑拟小鲵;高海拔样线的优势种为棘腹蛙、峨眉髭蟾和桑植趾沟蛙。在物种多样性的时间尺度上,3个多样性指数基本表现为6、8月高于4、10月。在物种多样性的空间尺度上,全年的物种丰富度与海拔无显著相关性,全年的香农-威纳指数和Pielou均匀度指数随着海拔升高呈驼峰型响应。将4个月份的物种多样性指数与海拔分别进行相关性分析,均无显著相关关系,但6月的香农-威纳指数随着海拔升高呈现接近驼峰型的响应。两栖动物因其各自不同的生活史会产生不同的繁殖周期、冬眠周期,所以物种多样性在时间尺度上存在差异;同时又因为不同两栖动物的温度适应能力和生境偏好不同,因此空间尺度上的物种多样性也各有不同。     

贺兰山东坡不同植被类型的土壤真菌多样性及其群落结构

为了解植被对土壤真菌群落结构及其优势菌群影响,利用高通量测序技术,研究了贺兰山东坡山地荒漠草地、浅山灌丛、亚高山针叶林和亚高山草甸4种植被类型土壤真菌多样性及其群落结构。结果表明,（1）贺兰山东坡不同植被类型土壤真菌α多样性由高到低依次为浅山灌丛、山地荒漠草地、亚高山草甸、亚高山针叶林;且亚高山针叶林显著低于其他植被类型。（2）相对丰度1%的真菌共检测到子囊菌门（Ascomycota）、担子菌门（Basidiomycota）、被孢霉门（Mortierellomycota）、球囊菌门（Glomeromycota）、壶菌门（Chytridiomycota）5个门类,其中子囊菌门和担子菌门为主要优势菌群,平均丰度占比分别为46.7%和29.6%;担子菌门在亚高山针叶林中丰度显著高于其他菌门,子囊菌门在山地荒漠草地、浅山灌丛和亚高山草甸植被类型中显著高于其他菌门。（3）从土壤真菌群落组成与环境因子相关性分析可知,植物多样性、pH、年均温、土壤有机质、年均降雨量、土壤含水率及海拔都会显著影响到真菌群落组成;从真菌α多样性指数与植物多样性指数和海拔Pearson相关性分析可知,植物多样性是影响真菌...     

Elevation-related differences in novel environment exploration and social dominance in food-caching mountain chickadees

Harsh and unpredictable environments have been assumed to favor the evolution of better learning abilities in animals. At the same time, individual variation in learning abilities might be associated with variation in other correlated traits potentially forming a behavioral syndrome. We have previously reported significant elevation-related differences in spatial memory and the hippocampus in food-caching mountain chickadees. Here, we tested for elevation-related differences in novel environment exploration, neophobia, and social dominance—behavioral traits previously thought to correlate with individual variation in cognition, using different birds from the same elevations. Compared to low-elevation birds, high-elevation chickadees were slower at novel environment exploration, but there were no detectable differences in neophobia. High-elevation chickadees were also socially subordinate to low-elevation chickadees in pairwise interactions. Considering previously reported elevation-related differences in cognition and the brain, our results suggest, however indirectly, that elevation-related variation in spatial memory might be associated with differences in novel environment exploration and in ability to obtain a high social rank in winter social groups. Whether these behavioral traits represent a behavioral syndrome or whether climate might affect these traits independently, our results suggest that multiple differences between elevations might assist with elevation-related separation. High-elevation chickadees would likely experience higher mortality if they move to lower elevation due to their low social dominance status and low-elevation chickadees might experience higher mortality if they move to higher elevation due to reduced memory ability and lack of behavioral adaptations to colder climate.     

Spatial mismatch between wild bee diversity hotspots and protected areas

Wild bees are critical for multiple ecosystem functions but are currently threatened. Understanding the determinants of the spatial distribution of wild bee diversity is a major research gap for their conservation. We modeled wild bee α and β taxonomic and functional diversity in Switzerland to uncover countrywide diversity patterns and determine the extent to which they provide complementary information, assess the importance of the different drivers structuring wild bee diversity, identify hotspots of wild bee diversity, and determine the overlap between diversity hotspots and the network of protected areas. We used site-level occurrence and trait data from 547 wild bee species across 3343 plots and calculated community attributes, including taxonomic diversity metrics, community mean trait values, and functional diversity metrics. We modeled their distribution with predictors describing gradients of climate, resource availability (vegetation), and anthropogenic influence (i.e., land-use types and beekeeping intensity). Wild bee diversity changed along gradients of climate and resource availability; high-elevation areas had lower functional and taxonomic α diversity, and xeric areas harbored more diverse bee communities. Functional and taxonomic β diversities diverged from this pattern, with high elevations hosting unique species and trait combinations. The proportion of diversity hotspots included in protected areas depended on the biodiversity facet, but most diversity hotspots occurred in unprotected land. Climate and resource availability gradients drove spatial patterns of wild bee diversity, resulting in lower overall diversity at higher elevations, but simultaneously greater taxonomic and functional uniqueness. This spatial mismatch among distinct biodiversity facets and the degree of overlap with protected areas is a challenge to wild bee conservation, especially in the face of global change, and calls for better integrating unprotected land. The application of spatial predictive models represents a valuable tool to aid the future development of protected areas and achieve wild bee conservation goals.     

Climate determines upper, but not lower, altitudinal range limits of Pacific Northwest conifers

Does climate determine species' ranges? Rapid rates of anthropogenic warming make this classic ecological question especially relevant. We ask whether climate controls range limits by quantifying relationships between climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) and tree growth across the altitudinal ranges of six Pacific Northwestern conifers on Mt. Rainier, Washington, USA. Results for three species (Abies amabilis, Callitropsis nootkatensis, Tsuga mertensiana) whose upper limits occur at treeline (> 1600 m) imply climatic controls on upper range limits, with low growth in cold and high snowpack years. Annual growth was synchronized among individuals at upper limits for these high-elevation species, further suggesting that stand-level effects such as climate constrain growth more strongly than local processes. By contrast, at lower limits climatic effects on growth were weak for these high-elevation species. Growth-climate relationships for three low-elevation species (Pseudotsuga menziesii, Thuja plicata, Tsuga heterophylla) were not consistent with expectations of climatic controls on upper limits, which are located within closed-canopy forest (< 1200 m). Annual growth of these species was poorly synchronized among individuals. Our results suggest that climate controls altitudinal range limits at treeline, while local drivers (perhaps biotic interactions) influence growth in closed-canopy forests. Climate-change-induced range shifts in closed-canopy forests will therefore be difficult to predict accurately.     

喀斯特山地草地植物群落物种数量特征及多样性分析

选择贵州典型喀斯特山地草地植物群落为研究对象,采用标准样地调查法,对不同海拔、坡向的植物群落数量特征、物种特性、以及物种丰富度、多样性、均匀性等特征展开研究,结果表明,（1）喀斯特山地草地植物群落密度随海拔升高呈显著增加趋势（F=20.600;P≤0.01）。植物群落中矛叶荩草（Arthraxon lanceolatus）和扭黄茅（Heteropogon contortus）种群在数量上占优势,同时矛叶荩草和扭黄茅种群密度随海拔升高呈现出增加趋势;但矛叶荩草种群密度在群落中的比例呈现出下降趋势,而扭黄茅种群密度在群落中的比例呈现出升高趋势。（2）喀斯特山地草地植物群落以禾本科（Gramineae）、菊科（Compositae）、蔷薇科（Rosaceae）、唇形科（Labiatae）为主;其中禾本科植物种类比例随海拔升高呈现出下降趋势,而菊科、蔷薇科、唇形科植物种类比例呈现出升高趋势。（3）喀斯特山地草地植物群落丰富度指数随海拔升高呈现出增加趋势,Simpson多样性指数、Shannon-Wiener多样性指数随海拔升高呈现先降后升趋势,Peilow均匀性指数随海拔升高呈现下降趋势。     

江苏省水稻秸秆资源量及其可收集量估算

以江苏省23个主要水稻品种为研究对象,对不同品种类型、种植方式和单产水平的水稻进行取样调查,分析不同生产条件下的水稻草谷比及不同留茬高度下的秸秆可收集量,结合相关统计资料估算江苏省水稻秸秆资源量及其可收集量。结果表明,水稻草谷比在不同品种类型间差异较小（0.98～1.03）,不同种植方式（0.80～1.19）和不同单产水平（0.83～1.12）间差异较大;当留茬高度为5、15、20和25 cm时,水稻秸秆可收集系数分别为0.815～0.868、0.668～0.732、0.600～0.669和0.533～0.618,水稻秸秆可收集量分别为1 352.16×104～1 458.09×104、1 145.70×104～1 228.13×104、1 043.20×104～1 121.52×104和951.37×104～1 021.30×104 t。估算得到2009年江苏省水稻秸秆资源量（以干质量计）为1 585.93×104～1 704.92×104 t,比传统方法的估算结果高2.45%～10.14%。江苏省水稻秸秆资源丰富,可收集量主要受留茬高度和种植方式的影响。     

水稻土甲烷氧化菌对镉胁迫的响应

重金属污染影响土壤微生物群落结构与活性,间接影响土壤碳（如CO2、CH4）的生物地球化学循环和全球气候变化。甲烷氧化菌氧化消耗CH4,降低大气中CH4含量,在缓解由温室气体导致的全球温暖化方面起着重要作用。本研究通过短期土壤培养实验,比较研究了不同强度重金属镉（Cd）胁迫下,水稻土中甲烷氧化菌的多度、群落组成及其氧化CH4潜势的差异。结果表明,添加Cd含量越大,水稻土氧化CH4潜势越弱,甲烷氧化菌pmoA基因拷贝数显著减少;甲烷氧化菌多度与水稻土氧化CH4潜势之间存在显著正相关关系（P〈0.001）。群落组成分析发现,在相对低含量Cd（1 mg.kg-1）条件下,有新的甲烷氧化菌菌属出现,而添加较高含量Cd（10 mg.kg-1）时甲烷氧化菌种类减少。总之,Cd胁迫降低水稻土中甲烷氧化菌多样性及其氧化CH4潜势,可能导致原位CH4消耗减少,从而增加稻田CH4排放。     

水稻对UV-B辐射响应的敏感性差异

综述了UV-B辐射对水稻（Oryza sativa L.）的影响和水稻对UV-B辐射的抗性机制。UV-B辐射对水稻生长、叶片形态、生物量、产量、光合系统、病害等产生一定的影响。水稻对UV-B辐射的敏感性因子主要有CPD光解酶、UV-B吸收物质、抗氧化酶等。UV-B辐射使水稻叶片中产生了ROS,导致Rubisco酶降解,光合色素含量变化,抑制了光合作用,最终影响水稻籽粒形成和产量。水稻对UV-B辐射响应存在着品种差异,CPD光解酶编码基因的自然突变会引起水稻UV-B敏感性的差异,CPD光解酶活性是水稻对UV-B敏感性的关键因素。通过建立响应指数公式,对水稻UV-B响应敏感性的品种差异进行评估,存在品种差异的原因主要是基因、生长、生理、生育期和环境背景的差异。最后对UV-B辐射对水稻的影响、水稻对UV-B响应的差异及机理有待深入研究的方向进行了展望。     

间伐对杉木人工林林下植被多样性及生物量的影响

对间伐了4年的杉木（Cunninghamia lanceolata（Lamb.）Hook.）人工林林下植被的生物量和生物多样性进行了调查和分析。结果表明：林下植被相似系数随着间伐强度增加而增加;间伐显著提高了林下植被的物种丰富度、Simpson指数、Shannon-Weiner指数和生物量（P〈0.05）,而对均匀度指数无显著影响（P〉0.05）;强度和中度间伐显著增加了灌木生物量,而草本生物量在弱度和中度间伐下显著增加（P〈0.05）;3种间伐强度均显著提高草本的物种丰富度、Simpson指数和Shannon-Weiner指数,而灌木的3种指数仅在强和中度间伐下得到显著提高（P〈0.05）。     

Future Climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region and Its Potential Impact on Vegetation

Biotic responses to future changes in global climate are difficult to project for a particular region because the responses involve processes that operate at many spatial scales. This difficulty is exacerbated in mountainous regions, where future vegetation changes are often portrayed as simple upward displacements of vegetation zones in response to warming. We examine the scope of future responses that may occur in a mountainous area by illustrating the potential distributions of selected tree taxa in the region of Yellowstone National Park. The output of a coarse-resolution climate model that incorporated a doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere was interpolated onto a 5-minute grid of topographically adjusted climate data. The output was also used as input into statistical relationships between the occurrence of individual taxa and climate. The simulated vegetation changes include a combination of elevational and directional range adjustments. The range of high-elevation species decreases, and some species become regionally extirpated. The new communities have no analogue in the present-day vegetation because they mix low-elevation montane species currently in the region with extralocal species from the northern and central Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest. The projected climate changes within the Yellowstone region and the individualism displayed by species in their potential range adjustments are equal or greater than the changes seen in the paleoecologic record during previous warming intervals. Although the results support conservation strategies that include habitat connectivity, the magnitude of the changes may exceed the ability of species to adjust their ranges. The predicted patterns call into question the adequacy of current management objectives to cope with the scope of future changes.