太湖流域农业面源污染及控制研究进展

太湖及其流域的水环境质量呈现严重恶化趋势,农业面源污染是太湖流域水体环境恶化的主要原因之一.论文通过文献分析,总结了太湖流域农业面源污染的影响因素、相应的治理措施以及农业面源污染控制的特点.结果表明:①虽然太湖流域典型区域的面源污染影响及排污系数的研究较多,但是着眼于太湖流域整体的农业面源污染负荷总量的研究并没有明确答案:②农业面源污染的治理技术研究较多,但将这些自然科学成果应用到实际的管理实践中的政策研究较少;③对农田面源污染的研究较多,对畜禽渔业养殖废弃物处理的研究比较薄弱,并且两者没有很好地结合起来进行研究;④虽然已经有了一些关于农业面源污染控制管理的讨论,但缺乏管理实施标准的研究;⑤围绕农业面源污染治理的主要手段都与农户行为有关,例如土地利用方式、耕作方式等,但现在很少有从环境污染主体即农户行为的角度去研究如何减少环境污染.     

Analysis of microcystins in cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples from Meiliang Bay,Taihu Lake,China

Taihu Lake is the third largest freshwater lake in China. In recent years, the water pollution of cyanobacteria blooms has become a severe problem in this area. Microcystins (MCs) are an important group of toxic compounds mainly produced by some cyanobacteria species and have both acute and chronic hepatotoxic effects on animals and humans. This paper presents the first data on the identification and detection of MCs in both natural occurring cyanobacteria blooms and surface water samples (0-0.5 m), collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China. A conventional method for extraction and isolation of MCs from cyanobacteria blooms was applied. High-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis showed that the main toxic component in the cyanobacteria materials was MC-LR. The monoclonal antibody (mAb) against MC-LR produced by hybridoma technique was employed for direct competitive ELISA to detect the concentrations of MCs in bloom and water samples collected in 2001. The results not only revealed the presence of MCs but also temporal variations of MCs levels of three sampling stations in Meiliang Bay in 1 year. It is obvious that the MC contents were relatively higher during warm months and related with the status of eutrophication. Our study indicates the threat associated with MCs in water body of Taihu Lake. To prevent the MCs potential hazard on public health in this area, some necessary measures of monitoring and control of growth of cyanobacteria are urgently needed.     

Composition, sources, and potential toxicological significance of PAHs in the surface sediments of the Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China

Twenty-five surface sediment samples were collected from Meiliang Bay, Taihu Lake, China, in 2003. The concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), identified as priority pollutants by the USEPA, were determined by gas chromatography equipped with a mass spectrometry detector (GC-MS). Total concentrations of the PAHs ranged from 1207 to 4754 ng/g dry weight. Sediment samples with the highest PAH concentrations were from the northern site of the bay, which is in proximity to the incoming PAH source; the PAH levels in the southern part were relatively low. The observed PAH levels were higher than those in river sediments in China but were lower than those found in sediments of urban areas and harbors. According to the observed molecular indices, PAHs originated largely from the high-temperature pyrolytic process, whereas the petrogenic process was more commonly responsible for PAH contamination in harbors. A good correlation existed between the benzo[a]pyrene level and the total PAH concentration (r=0.97), making benzo[a]pyrene a potential molecular marker for PAH pollution. According to the numerical effect-based sediment quality guideline (SQGs) of the United States, the levels of PAHs at most studied sites in Meiliang Bay, except some sites in the northern part of the bay, should not exert adverse biological effects. In the northern part of the bay, the PAH levels at sites 21 and 22 exceed the effects range low (ERL) and could thus cause acute biological impairments, in comparison with the sediment quality guidelines. The total PAH levels were expressed as the B[a]P toxicity equivalents (TEQs(carc)) and compared to the contaminated sediments from Guba Pechenga, Barents Sea, Russia.     

太湖流域跨界水污染的危害、成因及其防治

跨界水污染严重影响流域水环境保护,严重干扰环境友好型社会的建设,引起了各方面的高度关注。在客观分析太湖流域跨界水污染多方面危害的基础上,揭示了粗放型经济增长方式、水环境管理体制不合理和水污染防治的制度缺失是跨界水污染的三大成因,并针对性地提出：第一,实现流域管理体制创新是破解跨界水污染难题的根本。第二,创建流域水生态补偿机制是破解跨界水污染难题的关键。第三,构建水环境保护联合执法机制是破解跨界水污染的保证。     

Changes of public environmental awareness in response to the Taihu blue-green algae bloom incident in China

Environmental problems are becoming increasingly severe in China with industrial discharges and household sewages being the main sources of water pollution in the country. For example, in the case of Taihu Lake, more than half of the total phosphorus in the lake comes from household sewage. While industrial pollution can be treated through technology innovation and controlled by environmental regulations and laws, decreasing household sewage relies entirely on residents. Raising public environmental awareness therefore is essential for ensuring effective environmental improvement and protection. A quantitative assessment of public awareness can inform policy and decision makers; however, not many such studies have been conducted. Changes in the awareness levels in response to a major environmental pollution incident are of particular interest because of the people’s first-hand experience of the triggered consequences. The present paper establishes a system of indicators for the assessment of public environmental awareness. Combined with a fuzzy matter-element analysis method, a model is set-up to quantitatively assess the public environmental awareness. The model is then applied to assess the environmental awareness of the residents of Wuxi City after its major lake Taihu suffered a severe algae bloom in 2007. This study examines whether this serious environmental incident affected people’s environmental awareness and to what degree. The findings show that the matter-element model is capable to resolve well the fuzziness of the ranking affiliation and classification of subjective perceptions, such as public environmental awareness. They show that this environmental incident has had significant positive impacts on the environmental awareness of Wuxi residents. The paper concludes with recommendations related to raising public environmental awareness.     

Development of the Greening of Industrial Firms in the Cities along Taihu Lake： A Case Study in Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province

Under the globalization, the coastal China becomes a hot area of the international manufacturing investment due to its priority location, excellent environment, lower labor and land costs, etc. However, the fast industrialization has aroused the great demolishment to the local ecological environment. For example, the heavy water eutrophication in Taihu Lake has affected the source of drinking water for the cities around the lake. Anyway, in order to keep the economic increase and reduce the resource ex- pense and pollution at the same time, it is necessary to encourage the greening of industrial enterprises actively for sustainable de- velopment. On the basis of the investigation of industrial enter- prises in Wuxi city within Taihu Basin, the relatively developed region in coastal China, this paper analyzed the development process of green industry. This article concluded that governmen- tal principal is the main pressure for enterprises to protect envi- ronment while the market factor plays a part role. Moreover, en- terprises in the high technology development zone work better in environmental protection than those in the villages and towns, while the large enterprises work better than those small enterprises.     

白马湖水污染特征及其成因分析

为揭示白马湖水污染特征及其成因,在历史监测数据收集的基础上,于2016年11月初对白马湖25个采样点的水质指标进行了分析。结果表明:近年来白马湖水质波动较大,2010~2014年期间,白马湖水体水质总体处于Ⅳ类;2015年好转为Ⅲ类;2016年又下降为Ⅴ类。白马湖水体富营养化综合指数(TLIc)呈显著增加趋势,由最初的轻度富营养化水平演变到目前的中度富营养化水平(TLIc:66.66)。采样期间,白马湖水体主要以氮污染物为主,其次是磷污染物和耗氧污染物。湖泊水体污染程度依次为:北部湖区东部和中部湖区南部湖区。湖水中总氮(TN)约83%以溶解性总氮(TDN)的形式存在,氨氮(NH+4-N)占TDN的65%,其次是NO3--N(25%);总磷(P)约60%以溶解性总磷(TDP)的形式存在,正磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)占TDP的55%左右。北部湖区TDN/TDP比值最高(50.51±19.16)(p0.05),P是北部湖区藻类生长的限制因子;中部、东部和南部湖区TDN/TDP比值均已适应藻类生长。陆域外源污染源输入是引起白马湖水质空间异质性和水质下降的主要因素,湖内水生植被消亡和水产养殖污染引起的生态功能退化也是造成白马湖水质下降的一个原因。研究可为当下白马湖水质演化研究及水环境治理提供新的理论基础。     

湖域工业初始排污权纳什议价模型研究——以江苏省太湖流域纺织行业为例

针对湖域工业初始排污权定价问题,文章从多利益相关者合作视角出发,结合我国现阶段基本国情,利用合作博弈理论构建了基于多利益相关者合作的湖域工业初始排污权纳什议价(Nash-Bargaining)定价模型。即在满足湖域水环境排污权总量控制及区域产业规划调整方案的前提下,通过政府主体与行业主体之间考虑议价能力系数λ影响的Nash-Bargaining,求解符合价格约束的行业初始排污权价格的最大满意解。其中,价格约束通过求解行业治污成本函数的Aumann-Shapley值给出。并以江苏省太湖流域纺织染整行业为例,针对湖域工业点源氨氮初始排污权定价问题,对比分析了Nash-Bargaining定价模型与江苏省太湖流域现行氨氮类资源价格,结果表明:议价能力系数λ对Nash-Bargaining定价模型影响显著,λ的合理区间为0.5≤λ≤0.7,现行氨氮初始排污权价格对应于0.3<λ<0.4时的情况,不利于初始排污权资源的可持续利用;现行氨氮初始排污权价格的标准化系数ξ=0.91,以λ=0.6时的价格为例,Nash-Bargaining定价模型所给出的价格的标准化指数ξ=0.85,具有比现行价格更强的资源补偿性能,考虑到太湖流域污染现状,Nash-Bargaining定价模型所得价格可行性更强。因此,建议适当调高氨氮初始排污权价格。     

中国高质量发展阶段最优环境保护税率研究

中国开始实施环境保护税法的时间位于从高速增长向高质量发展过渡的时期。环境保护税法规定了大气和水污染物的税率区间,因此实际执行的税率存在优化的空间。虽然征收环境保护税是为了达成环境目标,但是该项税收同样可以服务于经济和社会目标。本文拟对环境保护税这一市场化的环境政策价格工具进行优化,从这一崭新研究视角切入,探讨协调经济与环境关系的原则,以期为实现高质量发展提供理论依据。本文的研究方法基于一个包括企业、政府和消费者的世代交替模型,各经济主体进行分散化决策。企业在生产过程中排放污染,政府向企业征收环境保护税并且治理污染,消费者的内生寿命受到污染存量和人均产出的共同影响。根据市场均衡条件,本文得到描述物质资本和污染存量动态变化的非线性差分方程,在此基础上进行解析证明和数据模拟。研究得到以下三点结论:第一,同一个环境保护税率无法同时实现经济产出最大化和社会福利最大化的目标,这意味着在高质量发展阶段政府需要抛弃以经济增长为中心的政策思路,转而以社会福利最大化为目标确定最优的环境保护税率。政府提高环境保护税率,可以实现由经济产出最大化向社会福利最大化的转变。第二,相较于最大化经济产出的税率,最大化社会福利的环境保护税率在转移路径上会造成各主要变量较小的波动,并用一定的经济产出换取更多的物质资本、更优的环境质量、更长的人均寿命、以及更高的社会福利水平,因此支持了前述政府需要以社会福利最大化为目标确定最优环境保护税率的结论。第三,最大化社会福利的环境保护税率在基准模型中的数值为1.96,但污染物的异质性会影响最优税率的数值。污染物较低的自然扩散速度、较严重的健康损害程度、较高的治理技术水平都会提高最优的环境保护税率。本文提出三点政策建议:第一,通过征收环境保护税最大化社会福利水平。第二,通过提高环境保护税率体现发展理念的转变。第三,促进医疗卫生和污染治理技术进步。     

农地流转对农户农地投入影响的区域比较——基于江汉平原和太湖平原的实证分析

本文采用湖北省江汉平原6个县(市、区)和太湖平原5个县(市、区)的893份农户调查问卷,分析了农地流转对农户农地投入行为影响的区域差异。研究表明,在要素市场活跃的情况下,农户生产决策和消费决策是分离的,且生产决策优先于消费决策;在市场不活跃的情况下,农户生产决策和消费决策是相互作用的。农地流转规模和稳定性存在区域差异,因此农户农地流转的目标不同,进而使得农地流转对不同区域农户农地投入行为的影响不同。相对于经济较不发达的地区,经济发达地区的农户流转农地的规模相对较大,稳定性较高,其农业生产目标更多地表现为利润最大化,更有条件从事农业规模化经营,更有增加投入的动机。农地流转市场发育程度、农地流转的稳定性和规范性,对农户农地投入行为产生较显著的影响。因此,完善农地流转市场,规范农户农地流转行为,对引导农户对农地进行合理投入、促进农地可持续利用极其重要。     

Prediction of primary energy demand in China based on AGAEDE optimal model

In this article,we present an application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm Energy Demand Estimation(AGAEDE) optimal model to improve the efficiency of energy demand prediction.The coefficients of the two forms of the model(both linear and quadratic) are optimized by AGA using factors,such as GDP,population,urbanization rate,and RD inputs together with energy consumption structure,that affect demand.Since the spurious regression phenomenon occurs for a wide range of time series analysis in econometrics,we also discuss this problem for the current artificial intelligence model.The simulation results show that the proposed model is more accurate and reliable compared with other existing methods and the China's energy demand will be 5.23 billion TCE in 2020 according to the average results of the AGAEDE optimal model.Further discussion illustrates that there will be great pressure for China to fulfill the planned goal of controlling energy demand set in the National Energy Demand Project(2014—2020).     

群链产业合作模式下“京津冀”区域水资源优化配置研究

产业间的合作在不同区域中呈现出不同的形式,这会导致基于其建立的水资源合作联盟形式各异,进而会影响区域内合作水资源的整体收益。为优化"京津冀"区域内的水资源配置,本文基于产业合作的群链模式机理和模糊联盟博弈思想,提出了一种具有三阶段结构的"京津冀"区域水资源配置模式。在第一阶段,以满足"京津冀"区域居民生活用水需求并兼顾产业间的水资源配置公平为目标,通过构建水资源一次配置模型,进行区域内各用水主体间的一次配置;在第二阶段,针对"京津冀"区域内产业间合作的群链结构,分析产业间进行水资源模糊合作博弈可能出现的模糊联盟形式,进而构建出水资源二次配置模型以实现水资源收益(效率)最大化,二次配置模型采用"优先规则"建立各水资源合作模糊联盟的支付函数,将"京津冀"区域内所有产业用水主体在第一阶段配置中获得的水资源按一定比率配置到各联盟中;在第三阶段,考虑模糊联盟的稳定性,采用模糊shapley值法对第二阶段配置后各模糊联盟的收益分配给产业用水主体。本文运用算例对上述水资源配置模式的有效性进行了验证。算例分析结果显示:(1)"京津冀"区域内各产业间合作关系为群链模式时,各产业通过形成多种形式的水资源合作模糊联盟,获得比其单独利用水资源时更高的用水收益;(2)京津冀区域内各产业的总体用水收益也高于各产业单独利用水资源时的总用水收益。即本研究中的水资源配置模式有效。因此,该水资源配置模式可为产业合作关系为群链模式的区域,在进行产业间水资源优化配置时提供决策参考。     

Strategic assessment of the magnitude and impacts of sand mining in Poyang Lake, China

Planning for the extraction of aggregates is typically dealt with at a case to case basis, without assessing environmental impacts strategically. In this study we assess the impact of sand mining in Poyang Lake, where dredging began in 2001 after sand mining in the Yangtze River had been banned. In April 2008 concern over the impact on the biodiversity led to a ban on sand mining in Poyang Lake until further plans could be developed. Planning will require consideration of both sand extraction in relation to available sediment resources and also environmental impacts within the context of future demand for sand in the lower Yangtze Valley. We used pairs of near-infrared (NIR) Aster satellite imagery to estimate the number of vessels leaving the lake. Based on this we calculated a rate of sand extraction of 236 million m³ year⁻¹ in 2005–2006. This corresponds to 9% of the total Chinese demand for sand. It qualifies Poyang Lake as probably the largest sand mining operation in the world. It also indicates that sand extraction currently dominates the sediment balance of the lower Yangtze River. A positive relation between demand for sand and GDP, revealed by historic data from the USA, suggests that the current per capita demand for sand in China might increase in the near future from 2 to 4 m³ year⁻¹. We review various environmental impacts and question whether it will be possible to preserve the rich biodiversity of the lake, while continuing at the same time satisfying the increasing Chinese demand for sand. Finally we review alternative options for sand mining, in order to relieve the pressure from the Poyang Lake ecosystem.     

生态敏感区村域尺度土地生态经济系统的耦合协调发展研究——以重庆市江津区为例

评估土地生态经济系统的耦合协调发展状况,有助于揭示区域人地关系地域系统的动态演化规律,促进土地资源可持续利用.以三峡库区生态敏感区江津区为例,在剖析土地生态经济系统耦合机理的基础上,构建土地生态经济系统耦合协调发展的评价指标体系,通过土地综合评价和耦合协调度测度模型研究村域尺度土地生态经济系统的耦合协调发展特征.结果表明:(1)江津区土地生态系统发展逐渐变坏,总体表现出低等级村域空间挤压高等级村域空间的趋势,且土地生态系统发展表现出明显的空间分异;(2)江津区土地经济系统发展呈现向好趋势,但土地经济系统发展具有较大的空间差异,并呈现出显著的城乡分界;(3)江津区土地生态经济系统的耦合协调发展朝着子系统相互促进的方向演进,但全区整体的土地生态经济系统耦合协调水平还有待提升;(4)江津区村域土地生态经济系统的耦合协调发展具有显著的空间差异,高耦合协调的村域零星分布,中、低耦合协调的村域广泛分布,失调村域主要分布在城区范围之外.     

On application of the orthogonal distance method to Onego Lake plankton seasonal cycling modelling

This paper proposes a new approach to describing of Onego Lake plankton seasonal dynamics. The approach is based on the construction of the nonlinear regression measurement error models by virtue of the orthogonal distance method. The models describe average long-term plankton characteristics for every day of vegetative period, enable identify the main seasonal phenomena dates and evaluate annual and long-term plankton variability.     

Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes

Both climate extremes and agricultural disasters have been reported to increase in recent decades; however, so far, we have little idea on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes, as well as their meteorological and agronomic causes. Here, using the observed records on rice disasters at agro-meteorological stations across China and the meteorological indexes, we investigated the temporal and spatial changes of major rice disasters occurrence frequency and their relationships to climate change, climate extremes and agronomic practices from 1991 to 2009. We presented the temporal and spatial changes in occurrence frequency of major rice disasters, including droughts, floods, heat stress, chilling damage, insects and diseases, during the warmer period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000, based on both the observed records and the meteorological indexes. The results showed that changes in rice disasters could be largely ascribed to changes in climate extremes in recent decades. Floods, insects and diseases occurred more frequently at earlier growth stages; in contrast, chilling damage occurred more frequently at later growth stages in southwestern China during the period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000. Our findings highlighted the options should be taken timely and scientifically to reduce the disasters and to cope with ongoing climate change, based on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes in recent decades.     

Tracing operational conditions for the Ecologically Sustainable Economic Development: the Pareto optimality and the preservation of the biological crucial levels

The operational designing of Environmentally Sustainable Economic Development (ESED) emerges as an urgent and demanding task. Even though ESED has paved the way for thought-provoking and constructive scientific dialogue, appeal for designing an operational ESED is still lagging behind the needs of contemporary societies, leaving much to be desired. With this in mind, the present paper will aim at delineating principles for the operational application of ESED. First, the preservation of crucial properties of environmental functions and ecosystems, emerges as a prime condition of ESED. The second condition concerns the provision of the economic process with sufficient natural inputs; in this context, the paper intends to trace certain operational tenets governing the use of natural resources. Finally, the appropriate institutional settings for the operational design of ESED are traced. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Potential flood hazard due to urban expansion in the karst mountainous region of North China

Since China’s economic reform in 1978, the cities of China have experienced rapid expansion and urbanization, thereby profoundly transforming the spatial pattern of urban land use in the karst regions, particularly in the urban mountainous area within city, and urbanization has had and continues to have a negative impact on urban mountain area in cities of China. With the rapid development of urbanization and civilization in these regions, environmental degradation has been increasingly serious, especially in the urban karst mountain area, thereby resulting in the destruction and breakage of urban hills that induce serious natural hazard, i.e., flood hazard.