Predicting the Planform Configuration of the Braided Toklat River,Alaska, With a Suite of Rule‐Based Models1

Abstract: An ensemble of rule‐based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large‐scale influences on stability with several reduced‐complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two‐parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley‐scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)‐derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large‐scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley‐scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.     

From agricultural intensification to conservation: sediment transport in the Raccoon River, Iowa, 1916-2009

Fluvial sediment is a ubiquitous pollutant that negatively affects surface water quality and municipal water supply treatment. As part of its routine water supply monitoring, the Des Moines Water Works (DMWW) has been measuring turbidity daily in the Raccoon River since 1916. For this study, we calibrated daily turbidity readings to modern total suspended solid (TSS) concentrations to develop an estimation of daily sediment concentrations in the river from 1916 to 2009. Our objectives were to evaluate long-term TSS patterns and trends, and relate these to changes in climate, land use, and agricultural practices that occurred during the 93-yr monitoring period. Results showed that while TSS concentrations and estimated sediment loads varied greatly from year to year, TSS concentrations were much greater in the early 20th century despite drier conditions and less discharge, and declined throughout the century. Against a backdrop of increasing discharge in the Raccoon River and widespread agricultural adaptations by farmers, sediment loads increased and peaked in the early 1970s, and then have slowly declined or remained steady throughout the 1980s to present. With annual sediment load concentrated during extreme events in the spring and early summer, continued sediment reductions in the Raccoon River watershed should be focused on conservation practices to reduce rainfall impacts and sediment mobilization. Overall, results from this study suggest that efforts to reduce sediment load from the watershed appear to be working.     

Assessment of Coarse Sediment Mobility in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River,Colorado

The Gunnison River in the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park (BCNP) near Montrose, Colorado is a mixed gravel and bedrock river with ephemeral side tributaries. Flow rates are controlled immediately upstream by a diversion tunnel and three reservoirs. The management of the hydraulic control structures has decreased low-frequency, high-stage flows, which are the dominant geomorphic force in bedrock channel systems. We developed a simple model to estimate the extent of sediment mobilization at a given flow in the BCNP and to evaluate changes in the extent and frequency of sediment mobilization for flow regimes before and after flow regulation in 1966. Our methodology provides a screening process for identifying and prioritizing areas in terms of sediment mobility criteria when more precise systematic field data are unavailable. The model uses the ratio between reach-averaged bed shear stress and critical shear stress to estimate when a particular grain size is mobilized for a given reach. We used aerial photography from 1992, digital elevation models, and field surveys to identify individual reaches and estimate reach-averaged hydraulic geometry. Pebble counts of talus and debris fan deposits were used to estimate regional colluvial grain-size distributions. Our results show that the frequency of flows mobilizing river bank sediment along a majority of the Gunnison River in the BCNP has significantly declined since 1966. The model results correspond well to those obtained from more detailed, site-specific field studies carried out by other investigators. Decreases in the frequency of significant sediment-mobilizing flows were more pronounced for regions within the BCNP where the channel gradient is lower. Implications of these results for management include increased risk of encroachment of vegetation on the active channel and long-term channel narrowing by colluvial deposits. It must be recognized that our methodology represents a screening of regional differences in sediment mobility. More precise estimates of hydraulic and sediment parameters would likely be required for dictating quantitative management objectives within the context of sediment mobility and sensitivity to changes in the flow regime.     

Modeling channel management impacts on river migration: a case study of Woodson bridge state recreation area,Sacramento river,California, USA

Understanding how hydraulic factors control alluvial river meander migration can help resource managers evaluate the long-term effects of floodplain management and bank stabilization measures. Using a numerical model based on the mechanics of flow and sediment transport in curved river channels, we predict 50 years of channel migration and suggest the planning and ecological implications of that migration for a 6.4-km reach (river miles 218–222) of the Sacramento River near the Woodson Bridge State Recreation Area, California, USA. Using four different channel management scenarios, our channel migration simulations suggest that: (1) channel stabilization alters the future channel planform locally and downstream from the stabilization; (2) rock revetment currently on the bank upstream from the Woodson Bridge recreation area causes more erosion of the channel bank at the recreation area than if the revetment were not present; (3) relocating the channel to the west and allowing subsequent unconstrained river migration relieves the erosion pressure in the Woodson Bridge area; (4) the subsequent migration reworks (erodes along one river bank and replaces new floodplain along the other) 26.5 ha of land; and (5) the river will rework between 8.5 and 48.5 ha of land in the study reach (over the course of 50 years), depending on the bank stabilization plan used. The reworking of floodplain lands is an important riparian ecosystem function that maintains habitat heterogeneity, an essential factor for the long-term survival of several threatened and endangered animal species in the Sacramento River area.     

Initial Adjustments Within a New River Channel: Interactions Between Fluvial Processes, Colonizing Vegetation, and Bank Profile Development

A conceptual model of the morphological development of the riparian margins of newly cut river channels is presented, suggesting early feedbacks between vegetation growth and bank form. To test the model, observations of long and cross profiles, bank sediment and seed deposition, and bank vegetation development were collected over the first 2 years of river flows through a reach of the River Cole, West Midlands, UK. The newly created channel had a sinuous planform and varying asymmetric trapezoidal cross section in sympathy with the planform. No imposed bedforms or bank reseeding were included in the design. Over the 2 years, development of bedforms was rapid, with bed sediment sorting and bank profile adjustment occurring more steadily and progressively. Six classes of bank profile were identified by the end of the study period, illustrating close associations with sediment aggradation, vegetation colonization, and growth patterns. Vegetation colonization of the banks was seeded predominantly from local sources during the summer and from hydrochory (transport by the river) during the winter. Colonizing vegetation on the riverbanks appeared to act as a significant propagule source by the second summer and as an increasingly important roughness element, trapping both propagules and sediment, within the second year and providing early feedback into bank evolution. As a result, the time required for riparian margin development in the conceptual model was found to be considerably longer than observed in the study river. In addition, the role of surface wash/bank failure in modifying the bank profile and transporting seeds onto the upper bank face during the first year of bank development was found to be important in initiating rapid bank vegetation colonization and surface stabilization. This set of processes had not been incorporated in the initial conceptual model. In relation to channel restoration, this research illustrates that in small temperate rivers of modest energy the provision of an initial, sinuous corridor is sufficient to induce rapid development of fluvial features and vegetation cover without the need to construct bed forms or to seed the banks.     

Characterizing Geomorphic Change from Anthropogenic Disturbances to Inform Restoration in the Upper Cache River,Illinois

Over the past century, channelization, agricultural tiling, and land use changes have resulted in significant stream channel degradation of the Cache River in southern Illinois. With the increasing interest in restoration of the watershed's bottomland forests and swamps, we sought to characterize geomorphic change over the past 110 years to inform restoration and management. A previously surveyed stretch of river was resurveyed in the fall of 2011, following a record flood in the spring of that year. Results suggest that the slope of the channel in this section of the river has increased 345% between 1903 and 1972 (p < 0.01), but has not changed significantly since (p = 0.12). Within that same time period, bank heights increased between 1 and 7 m and bed elevation decreased between 1 and 5 m. Changes in resurveyed cross sections appear to be primarily due to recent flood scour. It appears as though early 20th Century stream channel modifications had immediate effects on the geomorphology of the channel; however, channel geometry is now at or near equilibrium. This case study of the Cache River watershed demonstrates how and why successful restoration will require integration of geomorphic processes of the system.     

HISTORICAL CHANGES IN UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER WATER AREAS AND ISLANDS1

ABSTRACT: Periodic surveys of the upper Mississippi River since 1866 and a discharge record of nearly equal length provided an opportunity to learn more about the magnitudes and rates of geomorphic processes at work in large stream systems. Furthermore, geomorphic and hydrologic adjustments could be evaluated in relation to watershed land use changes, small‐scale climate fluctuations, and considerable modifications to the channel and floodplain during the period of record. The present study uses GIS mapping to quantitatively compare historical changes in mapped land and water phenomena in the upper Mississippi River Pool 10, located along southwest Wisconsin's border. Modest channel widening and decreases in island area throughout the study reach during the last century are detectable. Flood magnitudes and frequencies also have varied during this time, and stages and low flow discharges have increased since the 1940s. The latter hydrologic change appears to be closely associated with the reach's geomorphic adjustments. Results are representative of a valley reach where a major tributary contributes a large sand bedload, forming an alluvial fan of considerable size in the floodplain.     

Channel Characteristics and Planform Dynamics in the Indian Terai, Sharda River

The Sharda River creates and maintains the ecologically diverse remnant patches of rare Terai ecosystem in northern India. This study used repeat satellite imagery and geographic information system analysis to assess the planform dynamics along a 60 km length of the Sharda River between 1977 and 2001 to understand the altered dynamics and its plausible causes in this data-poor region. Analyses revealed that the Sharda River has undergone significant change corresponding to enhanced instability in terms of increased number of neck cut-offs and consistent occurrence of avulsions in subsequent shorter assessment periods. An increased channel area (8 %), decreased sinuosity (15 %), increased braiding intensity, and abrupt migrations were also documented. The river has migrated toward the east with its west bankline being more unstable. The maximum shifts were 2.85 km in 13 years (1977–1990), 2.33 km in next 9 years (1990–1999), and a substantial shift of 2.39 km in just 2 years (1999–2001). The altered dynamics is making the future of critical wildlife habitats in Kishanpur Wildlife Sanctuary and North Kheri Forest Division precarious and causing significant economic damage. Extensive deforestation and expansion of agriculture since the 1950s in the catchment area are presumed to have severely impacted the equilibrium of the river, which urgently needs a management plan including wildlife habitat conservation, control, and risk reduction. The present study provides a strong foundation for understanding channel changes in the Sharda River and the finding can serve as a valuable information base for effective management planning and ecological restoration.     

ALTERED STREAMFLOW AND SEDIMENT ENTRAINMENT IN THE GUNNISON GORGE1

ABSTRACT: The Gunnison River in the Gunnison Gorge is a canyon river where upstream dams regulate mainstem discharge but do not affect debris-flow sediment supply from tributaries entering below the reservoirs. Regulation since 1966 has altered flood frequency, streambed mobility, and fluvial geomorphology creating potential resource-management issues. The duration of moderate streamflows between 32.3 and 85.0 m³/s has increased threefold since 1966. This, along with flood-peak attenuation, has facilitated fine-sediment deposition and vegetation encroachment on stream banks. The Shields equation and on-site channel geometry and bed-material measurements were used to assess changes in sediment entrainment in four alluvial reaches. Sand and fine gravel are transported through riffle/pool reaches at most discharges, but the cobbles and boulders composing the streambed in many reaches now are infrequently entrained. Periodic debris flows add coarse sediment to rapids and can increase pool elevation and the streambed area affected by backwater and fine-sediment accumulation. Debris-flow supplied boulders accumulate on fans and in rapids and constrict the channel until reworked by larger floods. The response to streamflow-régime changes in the Gunnison Gorge could serve as an analog for alluvial reaches in other regulated canyon rivers.     

Quantifying ground water inputs along the Lower Jordan River

The flow rate of the Lower Jordan River has changed dramatically during the second half of the 20th century. The diversion of its major natural sources reduced its flow rate and led to drying events during the drought years of 2000 and 2001. Under these conditions of low flow rates, the potential influence of external sources on the river discharge and chemical composition became significant. Our measurements show that the concentrations of chloride, calcium, and sodium in the river water decrease along the first 20-km section, while sulfate and magnesium concentrations increase. These variations were addressed by a recent geochemical study, suggesting that ground water inflow plays a major role. To further examine the role of ground water, we applied mass-balance calculations, using detailed flow rate measurements, water samplings, and chemical analyses along the northern (upstream) part of the river. Our flow-rate measurements showed that the river base-flow during 2000 and 2001 was 500 to 1100 L s(-1), which is about 40 times lower than the historical flow rates. Our measurements and calculations indicate that ground water input was 20 to 80% of the river water flow, and 20 to 50% of its solute mass flow. This study independently identifies the composition of possible end-members. These end-members contain high sulfate concentration and have similar chemical characteristics as were found in agricultural drains and in the "saline" Yarmouk River. Future regional development plans that include the river flow rate and chemistry should consider the interactions between the river and its shallow ground water system.     

A historical perspective of river basin management in the Pearl River Delta of China

Three innovations in water and soil conservancy technology in the Pearl River Delta of South China, i.e., dike building, land reclamation, and dike-pond systems, were examined from a historical perspective. They were found to best reflect local farmers' efforts to cope with the challenges of various water disasters and to build a harmonious relationship with the changed environment. These technologies were critical to the agricultural success and sustainability over the past 2000 years, and reflected local farmers' wisdom in balancing land use and environmental conservation. Imprudent use of a new agricultural technology could damage the environment, and could disturb the human-environment relationship, as evidenced by the more frequent flooding that followed inappropriate dike building and premature reclamation. It is suggested that as the urbanization and industrialization process in the delta region continues, the kind of thinking that made the water and soil conservancy sustainable needs to be incorporated into the design of similar technologies for water use and river basin management today.     

Locational Probability for a Dammed, Urbanizing Stream: Salt River, Arizona, USA

/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another.     

Response of a stream in disequilibrium to timber harvest

Timber was harvested on South Fork of Thomas Creek, White Mountains of Arizona, USA, for the first time in 1978–1979. This caused significant increases in annual flow volumes and annual instantaneous peak flows. North Fork remained untouched, but both streams were in disequilibrium before harvest time. Due to wetter years during the postharvest period, North Fork also experienced some flow increases, but the difference was not significant. Flow increases cause increased erosion in disequilibrium channels. While in South Fork channel cross sections enlarged by 10% since preharvest time, those in North Fork enlarged by only 2.5%. The number of knickpoints tripled in South Fork, which was about double that in North Fork. Knickpoint development resulted in destruction of the natural control structures (log steps and transverse gravel bars) in South Fork (47%), while in North Fork they increased by 23%. Knickpoints are scarps on the channel bed that have the appearance of gully headcuts. The tripling of the number of knickpoints signifies that adjustment processes of the bed profile are intensified drastically in South Fork. The geomorphic changes signify that due to increases in discharge, the extent of disequilibrium is exacerbated in South Fork. Yet, volumes of erosion are relatively small, as will be sediment volumes leaving the watershed at a given time, because of the stepwise sediment transport occurring in this ephemeral stream.     

PERSISTING SEDIMENT YIELDS AND SEDIMENT DELWERY CHANGES1

ABSTRACT: The Buffalo River is a tributary to the Mississippi River in west-central Wisconsin that drains a watershed dominated by agricultural land uses. Since 1935, backwater from Lock and Dam 4 on the Mississippi River has inundated the mouth of the Buffalo's valley. Resurveys of a transect first surveyed across the lake in 1935 and cesium-137 dating of backwater sediments reveal that sedimentation rates at the Buffalo's mouth have remained unchanged since the mid-1940s. Study results indicate that sediment yields from the watershed have persisted at relatively high levels over a period of several decades despite pronounced trends toward less cultivated land and major efforts to control soil erosion from agricultural land. The maintenance of sediment yields is probably due to increased channel conveyance capacities resulting from incision along some tributary streams since the early 1950s. Post-1950 incision extended the network of historical incised tributary channels, enhancing the efficient delivery of sediment from upland sources to downstream sites.     

NATURAL RESTABILIZATION OF STREAM CHANNELS IN URBAN WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Stream channels are known to change their form as a result of watershed urbanization, but do they restabilize under subsequent conditions of constant urban land use? Streams in seven developed and developing watersheds (drainage areas 5–35 km²) in the Puget Sound lowlands were evaluated for their channel stability and degree of urbanization, using field and historical data. Protocols for determining channel stability by visual assessment, calculated bed mobility at bankfull flows, and resurveyed cross‐sections were compared and yielded nearly identical results. We found that channel restabilization generally does occur within one or two decades of constant watershed land use, but it is not universal. When (or if) an individual stream will restabilize depends on specific hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics of the channel and its watershed; observed stability is not well predicted by simply the magnitude of urban development or the rate of ongoing land‐use change. The tendency for channel restabilization suggests that management efforts focused primarily on maintaining stability, particularly in a still‐urbanizing watershed, may not always be necessary. Yet physical stability alone is not a sufficient condition for a biologically healthy stream, and additional rehabilitation measures will almost certainly be required to restore biological conditions in urban systems.     

Effect of Human Activities on Overall Trend of Sedimentation in the Lower Yellow River,China

The Yellow River has been intensively affected by human activities, particularly in the past 50 years, including soil–water conservation in the upper and middle drainage basin, flood protection in the lower reaches, and flow regulation and water diversion in the whole drainage basin. All these changes may impact sedimentation process of the lower Yellow River in different ways. Assessing these impacts comprehensively is important for more effective environmental management of the drainage basin. Based on the data of annual river flow, sediment load, and channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River between 1950 and 1997, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the overall trend of channel sedimentation rate at a time scale of 50 years, and its formative cause. It was found in this study that erosion control measures and water diversion have counteractive impacts on sedimentation rate in the lower Yellow River. Although both annual river flow and sediment decreased, there was no change in channel sedimentation rate. A regression analysis indicated that the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River decreased with the sediment input to the lower Yellow River but increased with the river flow input. In the past 30–40 years, the basin-wide practice of erosion and sediment control measures resulted in a decline in sediment supply to the Yellow River; at the same time, the human development of water resources that required river flow regulation and water diversion caused great reduction in river flow. The former may reduce the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River, but the reduction of river flow increased the sedimentation. When their effects counterbalanced each other, the overall trend of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River remained unchanged. This fact may help us to better understand the positive and negative effects of human activities in the Yellow River basin and to pay more attention to the negative effect of the development of water resources. The results of this study demonstrate that, if the overuse of river water cannot be controlled, the reduction of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River cannot be realized through the practice of erosion and sediment control measures.     

River channel network design for drought and flood control: A case study of Xiaoqinghe River basin, Jinan City, China

Vulnerability of river channels to urbanization has been lessened by the extensive construction of artificial water control improvements. The challenge, however, is that traditional engineering practices on isolated parts of a river may disturb the hydrologic continuity and interrupt the natural state of ecosystems. Taking the Xiaoqinghe River basin as a whole, we developed a river channel network design to mitigate river risks while sustaining the river in a state as natural as possible. The river channel risk from drought during low-flow periods and flood during high-flow periods as well as the potential for water diversion were articulated in detail. On the basis of the above investigation, a network with “nodes” and “edges” could be designed to relieve drought hazard and flood risk respectively. Subsequently, the shortest path algorithm in the graph theory was applied to optimize the low-flow network by searching for the shortest path. The effectiveness assessment was then performed for the low-flow and high-flow networks, respectively. For the former, the network connectedness was evaluated by calculating the “gamma index of connectivity” and “alpha index of circuitry”; for the latter, the ratio of flood-control capacity to projected flood level was devised and calculated. Results show that the design boosted network connectivity and circuitry during the low-flow periods, indicating a more fluent flow pathway, and reduced the flood risk during the high-flow periods.     

River Channel Geometry and Rating Curve Estimation Using Height above the Nearest Drainage

River channel geometry is an important input to hydraulic and hydrologic models. Traditional approaches to quantify river geometry have involved surveyed river cross sections, which cannot be extended to ungaged basins. In this paper, we describe a method for developing a synthetic rating curve to relate flow to water level in a stream reach based on reach‐averaged channel geometry properties developed using the Height above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method. HAND uses a digital elevation model (DEM) of the terrain and computes the elevation difference between each land surface cell and the stream bed cell to which it drains. Taking increments in water level in the stream, HAND defines the inundation zone and a water depth grid within this zone, and the channel characteristics are defined from this water depth grid. We apply our method to the Blanco River (Texas) and the Tar River (North Carolina) using 10‐m terrain data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) dataset. We evaluate the method's performance by comparing the reach‐average stage‐river geometry relationships and rating curves to those from calibrated Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS) models and USGS gage observations. The results demonstrate that after some adjustment, the river geometry information and rating curves derived from HAND using national‐coverage datasets are comparable to those obtained from hydraulic models or gage measurements. We evaluate the inundation extent and show our approach is able to capture the majority of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100‐year floodplain.     

Water Quality and Land Use Changes in the Alafia and Hillsborough River Watersheds,Florida, USA1

Abstract: Spatial distribution of land use can have a substantial effect on surface and groundwater quality. Our objective was to test for trends in flow components and water quality related to changes in land use in the Alafia and Hillsborough River watersheds in Florida, USA, over the period 1974‐2007. In addition, water quality statistics were evaluated in the perspective of numeric water quality criteria and proposed reclassification of segments of the Alafia River. Trends in 10 water quality parameters and three discharge variables were evaluated using a nonparametric trend detection test. Results of land use analysis indicated substantial urbanization and loss of agricultural land in the study area. Discharge variables did not exhibit significant trends, whereas trends in the majority of water quality concentrations were negative or nonsignificant with total nitrogen and total Kjeldahl nitrogen as exceptions showing positive trends. Changes in nutrient pathways could not be clearly identified. Considering recently promulgated numeric nutrient criteria and standards for dissolved fluoride, much of the Alafia River was found to be out of compliance. While there were land use changes and changes in water quality over the study period, it was difficult to identify a direct cause‐effect relationship. Responses to regulatory efforts, such as the Clean Water Act and improvements in phosphate mining practices, may have had greater impacts on water quality than changes in land use.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF VARIABLE ANNUAL FLOW ON RIVER CHANNEL MEANDER MIGRATION PATTERNS,SACRAMENTO RIVER,CALIFORNIA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Flow regulation impacts the ecology of major rivers in various ways, including altering river channel migration patterns. Many current meander migration models employ a constant annual flow or dominant discharge value. To assess how flow regulation alters river function, variable annual flows ‐ based on an empirical relationship between bank erosion rates and cumulative effective stream power ‐ were added into an existing migration model. This enhanced model was used to evaluate the potential geomorphic and ecological consequences of four regulated flow scenarios (i.e., different hydrographs) currently being proposed on the Sacramento River in California. The observed rate of land reworked correlated significantly with observed cumulative effective stream power during seven time increments from 1956 to 1975 (r²= 0.74, p = 0.02). The river was observed to rework 3.0 ha/yr of land (a mean channel migration rate of 7.7 m/yr) with rates ranging from 0.8 ha/yr to 5.1 ha/yr (2.0 to 13.3 m/yr), during the analyzed time periods. Modeled rates of land reworked correlated significantly with observed rates of land reworked for the variable flow model (r²= 0.78, p = 0.009). The meander migration scenario modeling predicted a difference of 1 to 8 percent between the four flow management scenarios and the base scenario.