鄂尔多斯房地产业对经济增长的带动效应研究

随着经济活动的增加,鄂尔多斯市在房地产需求递增的同时出现产能过剩.从房地产业来探究鄂尔多斯市经济发展的客观规律,通过分析鄂尔多斯市房地产投资与GDP的协整关系,对鄂尔多斯市1998-2011年房地产投资与GDP序列平稳性检验、协整检验和Grange因果关系检验来确定房地产业与城市经济发展两者之间的因果关系,通过误差修正模型来确定带动效应.结果表明,鄂尔多斯市房地产投资额每增长1％,将带动城市GDP增长0.523905％.     

基于SSA法的城市旅游产业结构比较分析——以南京市为例

偏离—份额分析法(SSA法)是分析区域发展差距变动决定因素的基本方法。运用SSA方法,分别以营业收入、固定资产投入为指标,以南京市为研究对象,通过与长江三角洲地区的旅游强市上海、杭州和苏州的比较,分析由旅行社业、旅游住宿业、旅游景区业3个子产业构成的旅游产业结构特点及其相对优劣势。结果表明,南京市旅行社业获利和资产投入增长优势均弱,旅游住宿业固定资产投资高但获利弱,旅游景区业营业收入增长有较大的优势,但其投资不具备优势。南京市旅游业获利结构在4个城市中最为合理,但固定资产投资结构最差。在SSA分析的基础上,对南京市旅游产业结构的调整与优化提出对策与建议。     

财政支出、房地产发展与经济增长的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

针对我国财政支出、房地产发展与经济增长的动态关系,运用VAR模型对1978—2011年经济数据进行实证分析。结果表明:从长期看,我国财政支出、房地产发展与经济增长有着长期稳定的均衡关系;从短期看,尽管三者受随机干扰的影响会偏离长期均衡关系,但偏离是暂时的,将分别以0.48%、-0.51%、-0.08%的修正幅度调整至均衡状态;房地产发展与经济增长均是财政支出的Granger原因,房地产发展是经济增长的Granger原因;财政支出、房地产发展与经济增长均受到来自相互的正向冲击效应。     

影响中国投资的因素:市域空间相关的角度

运用空间相关性检验的莫兰指数分析讨论了中国城市投资的空间分布特征,并进一步在市域水平对投资进行了空间计量分析.结果表明:①GDP、财政支出、金融资本、人力资本均与投资的正空间相关性显著,即某区域相邻区域这些变量的集聚可带动该区域投资增加.②对全国城市分析的结果发现,除了GDP、财政支出、金融资本以外,空间滞后模型的空间相关系数估计显著,说明空间相关性也是影响投资的重要因素,而人力资本对投资规模的影响不显著.③投资在东、中、西部城市的影响因素具有明显差异.影响投资的主要因素东部是GDP,中部是GDP、财政支出、金融资本,西部则是GDP、财政支出.     

河南省主要粮食作物波动分析

为了减少粮食生产波动给粮食安全带来的不良影响,采用剩余法对改革开放以来河南省主要粮食作物的波动特征进行了分析。结果表明,河南省的粮食总产和三大粮食作物产量在今后一段时间内都将保持增长趋势,粮食产量的增加主要得益于单产的增加,主要粮食作物波动属古典型波动,波动剧烈。河南省粮食总产的波动指数和三大粮食作物产量波动指数的相关性基本相当,说明河南省粮食总产的波动受三大粮食作物的影响基本相等,提出了河南省粮食生产的建议。     

水资源足迹计算模型研究——以南京市为例

在生态足迹理论的基础上探讨了水资源足迹的概念。基于水资源生产力,推导出水资源足迹和水资源承载力的计算公式,用水资源赤字和水资源盈余来衡量水资源利用的可持续性。以南京市为例进行模型实证研究,计算了2003～2007年南京市水资源足迹和水资源承载力,结果表明南京市水资源足迹增长明显,水资源承载力总体平稳,赤字从2004—2007年呈指数增长趋势。实证研究表明模型结果可以在一定程度上衡量生产消费对水资源的影响。     

人口城镇化与经济增长、生态环境关系的实证分析

随着我国城镇化进程加快,转变经济增长方式、加强生态环境保护日益受到人们的关注。通过构建生态环境指标体系,对广东省韶关市人口城镇化率与人均GDP、人口城镇化率与生态环境综合得分运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验,建立回归模型进行实证分析。结果表明,人口城镇化并不是韶关经济增长的主要原因,人口城镇化与生态环境之间存在负影响。因此,加快新型城镇化建设的步伐对韶关市具有重要意义。     

长吉图开发开放先导区固定资产投资效益及其滞后效应分析

随着国家对长吉图先导区经济发展支持力度的加大,对其固定资产投资将会进入一个高速增长时期。因此,通过切实提高长吉图先导区域的固定资产投资效益,对化解长吉图先导区乃至整个吉林省潜在的资金风险,实现区域经济的可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。在分析长吉图先导区固定资产投资与经济增长相关性的基础上,通过建立区域固定资产投资效益模型,全面系统地研究长吉图先导区固定资产的投资效益,并进一步建立投资效益的一期滞后模型。研究结果表明,长吉图先导区的经济增长与固定资产投资额之间密切相关,且滞后一期固定资产投资对长吉图先导区GDP增量的滞后效应最为显著。在实证研究的基础上,提出解决问题的有效措施以及具体的政策建议。     

南京市产业结构优化分析

南京市经济健康、快速发展的关键是产业结构的调整与优化，对南京市产业结构进行深入分析具有十分重要的实际意义。结合定性和定量的方法，从产业结构演变、产业水平、产业效益和工业内部结构等几个方面对南京市产业结构加以分析，并在此基础上，归纳出南京市产业结构的特点，提出了南京市产业结构优化的对策。     

河南省房地产经济发展水平空间格局研究

为探索河南省房地产经济发展水平在空间上的分布特征,选用18个城市的统计数据,选择18个具体指标构建了一套涵盖城市社会经济实力、房地产开发企业、房地产销售和房地产投资等4个方面的房地产经济发展水平综合评价体系,利用主成分分析和聚类分析对河南省房地产经济发展水平进行分析。根据聚类分析的结果,将河南省18市的房地产经济发展水平分为3个类型:郑州市为一类,洛阳市、新乡市、漯河市、安阳市、鹤壁市、商丘市、周口市、驻马店市、平顶山市、开封市为二类,信阳市、济源市、焦作市、濮阳市、许昌市、南阳市、三门峡市为三类,各类城市之间差异较大。     

The relationship among economic growth,CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions,and energy use in the APEC countries: a panel VAR approach

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship among economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and energy use for 19 APEC countries over the 1960–2013 years. Using a panel VAR technique, a three-variable VAR is estimated. Empirical findings illustrate that no causal relationship emerges between real GDP and energy use. Thus, our empirical evidence is in line with the “neutrality hypothesis.” Moreover, panel cointegration tests show that a long-run equilibrium relationship is questionable for the APEC countries. Granger causality analyses confirm our previous results, since in nine countries any causal relationship between GDP and energy is found.     

Steel consumption and economic growth in Korea: Long-term and short-term evidence

This paper examines the long-term and short-term causal relationships between steel consumption and economic activity in Korea between 1975 and 2008 using vector error correction and vector autoregression models. This study disaggregates steel products and steel-consuming industries because the consumption of a specific steel product is closely linked to the output of the corresponding industry. This approach can provide a clear and reliable causal relationship between variable pairs. The results show that total steel consumption and GDP have a long-term equilibrium relationship, running from GDP to total steel consumption. However, a long-term bi-directional causal relationship exists between flat products consumption and the manufacturing GDP. Flat products consumption also demonstrates the long-term relationships between steel-consuming industries, such as automobile, shipbuilding, and fabricated metal product, but causal directions are mixed, depending on variable pairs. These results imply that the reciprocal growth between these industries has contributed to the robust competitiveness of Korean manufacturing. Because Korea has maintained its export-oriented industrial policy based on manufacturing, the steel and steel-consuming industries are expected to play a significant role in economic growth far into the future.     

Causal interactions between environmental degradation,renewable energy,nuclear energy and real GDP: a dynamic panel data approach

Renewable energy as well as nuclear energy are low carbon power that presents the life cycle emissions of greenhouse gases than fossil fuel energy. However, analyzing the relationship between the consumption of renewable energy, consumption of nuclear energy, CO₂ emissions and economic growth is crucial for the economic and energy policy decision; we address this question for developed countries. This paper deals with the relationships between nuclear energy, environmental degradation, real GDP and renewable energy. We apply a panel data model for a global panel consisting of nine developed countries during the period 1990–2013. The group studied consists of Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and the USA. The empirical findings suggest that: (1) a causal link between emissions and real income, (2) a unidirectional causality running from renewable energy to nuclear energy, (3) a unidirectional causal relationship running from capital to environmental degradation, (4) a unidirectional causal relationship running from income to nuclear energy consumption, since the growth hypothesis is valid, (5) a unidirectional causality running from capital to income, (6) no an outstanding role of renewable energy use in the contribution of CO₂ emissions.     

THE FLOOD HAZARD AND DYNAMICS OF THE URBAN RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET1

ABSTRACT: Literature on the flood hazard/residential land market relationship is full of contradictory findings, many of which are counter-intuitive to the belief that flooding has a negative impact on house prices. This research advances a conceptual framework through which these relationships might be re-examined. Based on the expected utility model, the theoretical framework integrates the economic notion of capitalization with spatial and temporal characteristics of the flood hazard. Four communities with different flood regimes are used to test the effect of flooding on the residential real estate market. Results show that, (1) there is an identifiable relationship between characteristics of the flood hazard and changes in house values; (2) the length of the recovery period is dependent on characteristics and expectations of flooding, attributes of the real estate market, and availability of capital to fuel recovery; and (3) dynamics of the urban market and spatial extent of the flood hazard influence these relationships. Further research is now necessary to examine these findings under different spatial, temporal, hydrological, and socio-economic conditions.     

重庆市环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与分析

随着经济持续发展,西部地区环境与经济矛盾日益突出,为研究西部地区经济与环境关系,本文以重庆市为例,选取1990年~2011年共22年的经济指标(人均GDP)与污染物(废水、工业废气、工业固体废弃物等)排放量为环境指标,建立经济与环境指标的协同演化模型,绘制环境库兹涅茨曲线并对重庆市经济与环境协同发展关系进行研究;结果表明:重庆市人均GDP与工业废水排放量之间呈现明显EKC关系,其转折点为2005年,即人均GDP为10982元;重庆市人均GDP与工业SO2排放量及与工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物排放的良性关系出现和将要出现在2010年和2015年;重庆市人均GDP与总体的工业"三废"排放量之间呈现出明显的倒"U"EKC关系,2006年以后,随着人均GDP的增加,工业"三废"排放量不断减少,2011年时,工业"三废"排放量趋于平缓。由此也说明,重庆市工业"三废"排放量有明显好转的趋势。     

Effects of economic growth on biodiversity in the United States

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997‐2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non‐human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth.     

辽宁省房地产业市场结构与价格行为的实证分析

从产业组织理论的角度对辽宁省房地产市场的市场结构进行了分析,得出辽宁省房地产市场处于完全竞争类型,且市场集中度有下降趋势.虽然城镇居民和农村居民的可支配收入年均增长率大于房价年均增长率,但房价增长对城镇居民的影响并不明显,而对农村居民的影响较明显,尤其是那些从农村出来准备定居城市的"准城市"居民.应用价格蛛网模型推导出辽宁省房地产市场在房价为3114.3元/m2时,该市场处于出清状态.基于当前的房价,辽宁省房地产市场有一定的泡沫.     

基于主成分—聚类分析的贫困县（区）经济发展研究——以陕南地区国家级贫困县（区）为例

采用国内生产总值、人均纯收入、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额等11个指标,运用主成分分析法对陕南地区20个国家级贫困县（区）的经济发展水平进行了评价,在此基础上运用聚类分析法将贫困县（区）分成四种类型：第一类是＂第二、第三产业并进型＂的汉滨区,第二类是＂特色农业带动型＂的商州区,第三类是＂优势矿业驱动型＂的洛南县和旬阳县,第四类是＂传统农业主导型＂的其余16个贫困县,针对各类型贫困县（区）提出相应的发展对策。     

How renewable energy and service growth influence environmental quality: Evidence from a sustainable development perspective

The present study inspects the relationships between the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, real GDP, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, as well as the service growth for top ten countries (TTC) in service activities. The empirical modeling used in the study involves the procedures of cointegration and tests of Granger causality to inspect the dynamic interaction between the variables during the period from 1980 to 2018. The results of the present study suggest that the variables are cross-sectionally dependent. In addition, the variables appear to be cointegrated based on several tests. The long-run outcomes revealed an inversed U-shaped form between emissions-GDP proving the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve assumption. The fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic OLS estimates show that the non-renewable energy and economic growth contribute to the increase of CO₂ emissions, while service value-added leads to decrease emissions. Furthermore, the renewable energy coefficient comes through as negative but insignificant for the selected panel. The TTC in service should stimulate the usage of renewable energy in various service events for following the path of sustainable development. Devising the investment plans associated with the use of renewable energies is quite essential for the advancement of the service sector leading to mitigating emissions portion.