危险品运输泄漏引发的河流污染事故模拟研究

针对农药运输过程中发生翻车泄漏事故造成的河流污染,结合SMS软件中的二维有限元水动力模块RMA2及美国环境保护署推出的WASP软件进行模拟研究.利用RMA2模拟水在河流系统中的物理运动,通过一定的转换规则将RMA2输出的结果转变为WASP所需要的形式,运行WASP得到污染物浓度在空间和时间上的变化规律并加以分析.模拟结果表明:在泄漏事故后不久,污染物还没有完全扩散到泄漏点对岸;在一段时间后,在横向扩散的作用下,污染物开始整个横断面上蔓延,断面横向浓度梯度不断减小,但还没有达到完全混合;断面浓度最大值开始从泄漏一侧向河流中心迁移.最后,针对研究案例提出与模拟结果相应的预警分析和应急措施.     

某矿斜井跑车伤害事故分析及对策

利用事故树对某矿斜井运输中的跑车伤害事故进行了分析,并提出了相应的隐患整改措施和标准化作业程序。     

我国生产安全事故伤亡比率分析

生产安全事故能够造成人员不同程度的伤害。根据几项安全科学实验与理论研究成果,结合四个工业化国家的相关统计数据分析,认为生产安全事故造成的死亡人数和受伤人数之间存在一个固定的比率关系。由于从我国家统计数据中无法直接得到这个比率值,因此,通过对比分析,本文给出了我国生产安全事故死亡人数与受伤人数的比值,并估算了2006年生产安全事故造成人员受伤人数及其直接经济损失。     

基于尖点突变理论的人群拥挤现象分析

针对偏微分方程模型对初始条件有很强的依赖性,且不能反映拥挤人群的非连续性现象,应用突变理论分析人群拥挤现象的形成机理.建立了拥挤人群的尖点突变模型,并推导出人群拥挤状态的临界密度和临界速率.研究表明,基于复杂系统的突变模型不但能描述人群状态的非连续性现象,而且更能针对性地求出人群状态突变的临界密度和临界速率;突变模型在实践中可以通过对变量的监测和调整,实现拥挤人群状态的预测和控制.由于突变模型对初始条件没有要求,因而更符合现实情景.     

论伤亡事故的必然性与偶然性

通过分析伤亡事故的外在表现形式和内在本质规律,揭示了伤亡事故的偶然性与必然性的辩证关系,透过现象看本质,从中找出故事的危险因素,并做好预防事故的转化工作。     

永安火电厂人为继电保护不正确动作事故分析及预防对策

通过历年来永安火电厂继电保护人为不正确动作事故情况,进行原因分析,并采取一系列措施,取得了较好效果。     

全国死亡百人以上事故统计分析

本文统计了1990～2005年我国死亡百人以上的事故。此类事故共计25起，总死亡人数4340人。此外，进一步分析了这些事故的类型、所属行业和发生时间等，找出了事故发生的规律。最后，对死亡百人以上事故的预防提出了对策建议。     

An analysis of accidents caused by improper functioning of machine control systems.

The scope of this study covers events resulting from improper functioning of machine control systems. An accident model providing a basis for formulating a checklist for accident analysis has been developed. Data about 700 accidents were collected. An analysis has proved that in the group of accidents caused by improper functioning of machine control systems, serious accidents happened much more frequently as compared to the group of accidents with no relation to the control system. The reasons for the majority of incidents caused by improper performance of safety functions consist in the errors made by designers. In view of that, incorrect behaviour of a worker should be treated as a normal event instead of a deviation causing an accident.     

A Bayesian network analysis of workplace accidents caused by falls from a height

This article analyses, using Bayesian networks, the circumstances surrounding workplace tasks performed using auxiliary equipment (ladders, scaffolding, etc.) that may result in falls. The information source was a survey of employees working at a height. We were able to determine the usefulness of this approach – innovative in the accident research field – in identifying the causes that have the greatest bearing on accidents involving auxiliary equipment: in these cases, the adoption of incorrect postures during work and a worker’s inadequate knowledge of safety regulations. Likewise, the duration of tasks was also associated with both these variables, and therefore, with the accident rate. Bayesian networks also enable dependency relationships to be established between the different causes of accidents. This information – which is not usually furnished by conventional statistical methods applied in the field of labour risk prevention – allow a causality model to be defined for workplace accidents in a more realistic way. With this statistic tool, the expert is also provided with useful information that can be input to a management model for labour risk prevention.     

全国生产安全事故直接经济损失抽样调查方案研究

本文采取分层、分阶段和整群抽样方法,以十万人死亡率、地区人均生产总值为指标,结合地区产业结构、重特大事故发生情况和地理位置等因素,对全国生产安全事故及其直接经济损失抽样调查方案进行研究.使用国家相关统计数据给出了2005年度抽样方案实例.研究结论对评估我国生产安全事故造成的直接经济损失情况有实际指导意义.     

饮用水水源突发性铊污染应急处理试验研究

模拟自来水厂现有工艺对含铊(Tl)原水进行处理,含Tl质量浓度为0.15 μg/L的原水在处理后剩余Tl质量浓度为0.142 μg/L,未能达到世界饮用水卫生标准规定的0.1 μg/L限值.在水厂现有工艺基础上,通过投加高锰酸钾、粉末活性炭和调节pH值来强化Tl去除.单因素试验和正交试验结果表明,高锰酸钾对Tl去除有极显著影响.最佳去除率方案为:高锰酸钾1.00 mg/L,pH值9.00,粉末活性炭30.0mg/L,聚合氯化铝铁1.88 mg/L.在此条件下处理Tl质量浓度为0.336 μg/L的原水,出水剩余Tl质量浓度为0.045 μg/L,同时该条件能使质量浓度低于1.24 μg/L的Tl污染原水处理后达标.以经济投药方案处理Tl质量浓度为0.336μg/L的原水,出水Tl质量浓度为0.081 μg/L,而每吨水的制水成本较原工艺仅增加0.021元.该投药方案也适用于质量浓度低于0.64μg/L的Tl污染原水.研究表明,在应对饮用水水源突发性Tl污染时,可采用高锰酸钾预氧化强化混凝应急处理.     

液氨储罐泄漏中毒事故的个人风险分析

分析液氨储罐泄漏中毒事故的个人风险,为厂区的安全规划及防护措施方案的制订提供科学依据.以天津某化工厂液氨储罐为例,根据中毒事故个人风险计算方法计算液氨储罐周围区域的个人风险值,同时采用Surfer 8.0软件绘制该区域的个人风险等值线,实现风险分析结果在地图信息中的可视化.结果表明,液氨储罐泄漏可能会造成严重中毒事故;中毒事故个人风险值受该地区风向概率影响较大.首次将Surfer 8.0软件应用于绘制个人风险等值线,展示了该软件在表示个人风险方面很大的应用和推广价值.     

浅谈蒸气锅炉的水位事故

通过分析锅炉缺水、满水和汽水共腾三种锅炉水位事故的原因 ,有针对性地提出了预防措施及发生锅炉水位事故的处理方法     

General assessment of the occupational accidents that occurred in Turkey between the years 2000 and 2005

Occupational accidents still constitute one of the major problems in Turkey, as they do all over the world. Every year, nearly one thousand people die due to occupational accidents and two thousand people are injured, becoming temporarily or permanently disabled. This leads to social and economic problems for these people. As a result, families suffer from occupational accidents socially and psychologically. On the other hand, the economy of the country and the employers are faced with economic loss and work day loss. The aim of this study is to assess the results of occupational accidents occurring between the years 2000 and 2005 in Turkey in terms of various criteria. In this study, a fluctuation in Turkey in the number of occupational accidents between 2000 and 2005 and a downward fluctuation in the number of deaths resulting from occupational accidents have been observed. Permanent disabilities have also shown a falling trend since 2002. Occupational accidents are mostly seen in the sectors of manufacture of metal goods (except for machines), construction, the textile industry, coal mining and manufacture of transportation vehicles, while the deaths of workers and permanently disabled persons due to occupational accidents are mostly seen in the construction sector.     

我国高速公路交通事故特征分析

随着我国高速公路的快速发展,高速公路交通事故逐年上升,高速公路交通事故死亡人数明显增加.分析表明:现阶段我国高速公路交通事故严重程度不断增加,高速公路的安全性尚未有效体现出来;与一般道路交通事故相比,高速公路交通事故有着明显不同的特征和规律.随着高速公路建设的进一步快速发展,我国的高速公路交通事故仍有可能呈继续上升趋势.     

Analysis of safety functions and barriers in accidents

A new method for accident investigations is presented. It is based on the concept of safety function, which is defined as a technical or organisational function, a human action or a combination of these, that can reduce the probability and/or consequences of accidents and other unwanted events in a system. An analysis starts with the identification of safety functions related to the event. These are structured; an assessment is then made of whether they worked or not, and finally safety improvements are proposed.The method has been applied to five different incidents, coming from different types of work sites, such as electrical power distribution, a railway, and hospitals. For each case, around 40 safety functions were identified, of which less than half had worked. It was found that technical, organisational and human safety features existed side-by-side. The method supports a consistent analysis of a variety of safety features, and can integrate them into a common format.Each system contained formal and informal elements in parallel, often overlapping. This can be seen as safety redundancy, which makes the safety system less vulnerable to change that supports the preservation of safety. It might be more adequate to describe this as a safety web rather than a distinct set of barriers, and there is also an analogy with the concept of safety resilience.     

2005-2019年我国重特大安全生产事故特征分析

为探究我国重特大安全生产事故特征,选取2005-2019年国内852起重特大事故作为研究对象,基于Python编程语言针对重特大事故发生的年份、季度、月份、工作日与非工作日、地域特征进行分析.结果表明:2005-2019年,国内重特大安全生产事故起数和死亡人数均在不断下降;第四季度发生重特大事故最多,而第三季度平均每起事故造成的死亡人数最多;重特大事故数量和死亡人数随月份显示出反复波动的趋势,均呈现3个"^",形;工作日期间发生的重特大事故数量最多,非工作日平均事故率最大;国庆节是重特大事故发生最多的节假日;贵州、湖南、山西、云南、河南等省份"十四五"期间需要重点加强安全和应急管理.     

Analysis of the circumstances of accidents and impact of transformations on the accidents in a beverage delivery company

The aim of the study was to analyze the narratives in accident files to document the circumstances of accidents in a beverage delivery company, in particular, in regard with the activities performed at the time of the accident and the deviations reported. A second aim was to understand the impact of the transformations introduced by the company on accident patterns. Narrative material from 546 files covering a 7-year period was analyzed. Special attention was given to collecting information on the activities conducted at the time of the accident, including location, foot support base, operation, and material involved. The analysis allowed specifying elements that have good potential for improving handling situations and decreasing accident risks. Three categories of deviation were analyzed: situations reported as particular or difficult, unforeseen events, and dysfunction reported in the activity itself. Results show that several external factors play an important role in the occurrence of accidents. Most of these factors are beyond risk analysis of handling situations. The impact of the transformations on the number, seriousness, and causes of accidents was dramatic. Analysis shows that current investigative risk tools are insufficient in helping management predict how decisions will affect safety. The discussion situates the results within the various theories of musculoskeletal mechanisms of injury.     

Analysis of accidents and incidents occurring during transport of packaged dangerous goods by sea

The release of packaged or containerized dangerous goods during transport can have serious consequences on board a ship. This study was focused on identifying factors contributing to these types of releases and on investigating the contribution of dangerous goods accidents to overall container ship accident rates. Records of dangerous goods releases from a US and a UK database for an 11-year period covering 1998–2008 were analyzed to identify and categorize main contributing factors. The majority of releases, estimated as 97% of the US events and 94% of the UK events, did not follow another primary accident type such as a collision. Faults that occurred during activities such as preparation of the goods for transport, packaging, stuffing containers, and loading the ship were main factors contributing to the release of the dangerous goods on board the ship. For container ship casualties occurring worldwide during the same period, 1998–2008, accidents involving packaged dangerous goods were estimated to account for 15% of all fatalities. Self-ignition or ignition of incorrectly declared dangerous goods was identified as a contributing factor for the fatal accidents. Ensuring that dangerous goods are correctly prepared and documented for marine transport is thus very important for preventing releases and improving on board safety.