Atmospheric composition change: Climate–Chemistry interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds like methane (CH₄), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds like ozone (O₃), sulfate and organic aerosols, both formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate–chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate–chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds like O₃ and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds like O₃, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects like ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AeroCom project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric–tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favoring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 5–10 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modeling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modeling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.     

Uncertainty Requirements in Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

Abstract

The continuing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) makes it essential that climate sensitivity, the equilibrium change in global mean surface temperature that would result from a given radiative forcing, be quantified with known uncertainty. Present estimates are quite uncertain, 3 ± 1.5 K for doubling of CO₂. Model studies examining climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit large differences in sensitivities and imposed aerosol forcings that raise questions regarding claims of their having reproduced observed large-scale changes in surface temperature over the 20th century. Present uncertainty in forcing, caused largely by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols, precludes meaningful model evaluation by comparison with observed global temperature change or empirical determination of climate sensitivity. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing must be reduced at least three-fold for uncertaintyin climate sensitivity to be meaningfully reduced and bounded.     

Antarctic krill fishery effects over penguin populations under adverse climate conditions: Implications for the management of fishing practices

Fast climate changes in the western Antarctic Peninsula are reducing krill density, which along with increased fishing activities in recent decades, may have had synergistic effects on penguin populations. We tested that assumption by crossing data on fishing activities and Southern Annular Mode (an indicator of climate change in Antarctica) with penguin population data. Increases in fishing catch during the non-breeding period were likely to result in impacts on both chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarcticus) and gentoo (P. papua) populations. Catches and climate change together elevated the probability of negative population growth rates: very high fishing catch on years with warm winters and low sea ice (associated with negative Southern Annular Mode values) implied a decrease in population size in the following year. The current management of krill fishery in the Southern Ocean takes into account an arbitrary and fixed catch limit that does not reflect the variability of the krill population under effects of climate change, therefore affecting penguin populations when the environmental conditions were not favorable.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01386-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Nitrous oxide and methane in a changing Arctic Ocean

Human activities are changing the Arctic environment at an unprecedented rate resulting in rapid warming, freshening, sea ice retreat and ocean acidification of the Arctic Ocean. Trace gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) play important roles in both the atmospheric reactivity and radiative budget of the Arctic and thus have a high potential to influence the region’s climate. However, little is known about how these rapid physical and chemical changes will impact the emissions of major climate-relevant trace gases from the Arctic Ocean. The combined consequences of these stressors present a complex combination of environmental changes which might impact on trace gas production and their subsequent release to the Arctic atmosphere. Here we present our current understanding of nitrous oxide and methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and its relevance for regional and global atmosphere and climate and offer our thoughts on how this might change over coming decades.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01633-8.     

Monitoring a changing Arctic: Recent advancements in the study of sea ice microbial communities

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO₂ exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01658-z.     

Increasing risks for emerging infectious diseases within a rapidly changing High Asia

The cold and arid mountains and plateaus of High Asia, inhabited by a relatively sparse human population, a high density of livestock, and wildlife such as the iconic snow leopard Panthera uncia, are usually considered low risk for disease outbreaks. However, based on current knowledge about drivers of disease emergence, we show that High Asia is rapidly developing conditions that favor increased emergence of infectious diseases and zoonoses. This is because of the existing prevalence of potentially serious pathogens in the system; intensifying environmental degradation; rapid changes in local ecological, socio-ecological, and socio-economic factors; and global risk intensifiers such as climate change and globalization. To better understand and manage the risks posed by diseases to humans, livestock, and wildlife, there is an urgent need for establishing a disease surveillance system and improving human and animal health care. Public health must be integrated with conservation programs, more ecologically sustainable development efforts and long-term disease surveillance.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01599-7.     

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution)

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg⁻¹ dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO₂ and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO₂ assimilation rate (A_sat) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A_sat in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change.     

Climate Change and Agricultural Development: Adapting Polish Agriculture to Reduce Future Nutrient Loads in a Coastal Watershed

Currently, there is a major concern about the future of nutrient loads discharged into the Baltic Sea from Polish rivers because they are main contributors to its eutrophication. To date, no watershed-scale studies have properly addressed this issue. This paper fills this gap by using a scenario-modeling framework applied in the Reda watershed, a small (482 km²) agricultural coastal area in northern Poland. We used the SWAT model to quantify the effects of future climate, land cover, and management changes under multiple scenarios up to the 2050s. The combined effect of climate and land use change on N-NO₃ and P-PO₄ loads is an increase by 20–60 and 24–31 %, respectively, depending on the intensity of future agricultural usage. Using a scenario that assumes a major shift toward a more intensive agriculture following the Danish model would bring significantly higher crop yields but cause a great deterioration of water quality. Using vegetative cover in winter and spring (VC) would be a very efficient way to reduce future P-PO₄ loads so that they are lower than levels observed at present. However, even the best combination of measures (VC, buffer zones, reduced fertilization, and constructed wetlands) would not help to remediate heavily increased N-NO₃ loads due to climate change and agricultural intensification.     

Changes in the wet precipitation of sodium and chloride over the continental United States, 1984–2006

Data on wet-only precipitation from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network were analysed for trends in the sodium and chloride fluxes over the United States between 1 January 1984 and 31 December 2006. The data were first checked for consistency and for ionic balance. It was necessary to correct for changes in bicarbonate due to changes in atmospheric CO₂ levels over the study period, in order to obtain a balance. The fluxes were calculated and the trends determined by linear regression in the log domain. The significance of the trends was checked using both F- and t-tests. At 154 sites having reasonably continuous records over the assessment period, the sodium flux fell significantly at 139 and increased significantly at only one. The chloride flux similarly fell significantly at 140 and increased significantly at the same one as the sodium flux increased. At coastal sites the chloride to sodium ratio was the same as that in sea water, within experimental limits. Further from the coast the ratio changed apparently due to changes in the entire aerosol chemistry. The findings are discussed in terms of the simplicity and robustness of the methodology employed to determine the trends; the oceanic origin of most observable sodium even in the interior of the continent, probably because it occurs as a fine (<1 micron) aerosol which is poorly scavenged by precipitation; and the possibility that the drop in sodium and chloride fluxes might be driven by climate change.     

Enhanced ozone strongly reduces carbon sink strength of adult beech (Fagus sylvatica) - Resume from the free-air fumigation study at Kranzberg Forest

Ground-level ozone (O₃) has gained awareness as an agent of climate change. In this respect, key results are comprehended from a unique 8-year free-air O₃-fumigation experiment, conducted on adult beech (Fagus sylvatica) at Kranzberg Forest (Germany). A novel canopy O₃ exposure methodology was employed that allowed whole-tree assessment in situ under twice-ambient O₃ levels. Elevated O₃ significantly weakened the C sink strength of the tree-soil system as evidenced by lowered photosynthesis and 44% reduction in whole-stem growth, but increased soil respiration. Associated effects in leaves and roots at the gene, cell and organ level varied from year to year, with drought being a crucial determinant of O₃ responsiveness. Regarding adult individuals of a late-successional tree species, empirical proof is provided first time in relation to recent modelling predictions that enhanced ground-level O₃ can substantially mitigate the C sequestration of forests in view of climate change.     

Ozone Air Quality over North America: Part II—An Analysis of Trend Detection and Attribution Techniques

ABSTRACT

Assessment of regulatory programs aimed at improving ambient O₃ air quality is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policymakers. Trend detection, the identification of statistically significant long-term changes, and attribution, linking change to specific clima-tological and anthropogenic forcings, are instrumental to this assessment. Detection and attribution are difficult because changes in pollutant concentrations of interest to policymakers may be much smaller than natural variations due to weather and climate. In addition, there are considerable differences in reported trends seemingly based on similar statistical methods and databases. Differences arise from the variety of techniques used to reduce nontrend variation in time series, including mitigating the effects of meteorology and the variety of metrics used to track changes. In this paper, we review the trend assessment techniques being used in the air pollution field and discuss their strengths and limitations in discerning and attributing changes in O₃ to emission control policies.     

Advances in understanding ozone impact on forest trees: Messages from novel phytotron and free-air fumigation studies

Recent evidence from novel phytotron and free-air ozone (O₃) fumigation experiments in Europe and America on forest tree species is highlighted in relation to previous chamber studies. Differences in O₃ sensitivity between pioneer and climax species are examined and viewed for trees growing at the harsh alpine timberline ecotone. As O₃ apparently counteracts positive effects of elevated CO₂ and mitigates productivity increases, response is governed by genotype, competitors, and ontogeny rather than species per se. Complexity in O₃ responsiveness increased under the influence of pathogens and herbivores. The new evidence does not conflict in principle with previous findings that, however, pointed to a low ecological significance. This new knowledge on trees' O₃ responsiveness beyond the juvenile stage in plantations and forests nevertheless implies limited predictability due to complexity in biotic and abiotic interactions. Unravelling underlying mechanisms is mandatory for assessing O₃ risks as an important component of climate change scenarios.     

Changes Versus Homeostasis in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Vegetation Over Three Decades in the Sub-Arctic

Plant species distributions are expected to shift and diversity is expected to decline as a result of global climate change, particularly in the Arctic where climate warming is amplified. We have recorded the changes in richness and abundance of vascular plants at Abisko, sub-Arctic Sweden, by re-sampling five studies consisting of seven datasets; one in the mountain birch forest and six at open sites. The oldest study was initiated in 1977–1979 and the latest in 1992. Total species number increased at all sites except for the birch forest site where richness decreased. We found no general pattern in how composition of vascular plants has changed over time. Three species, Calamagrostis lapponica, Carex vaginata and Salix reticulata, showed an overall increase in cover/frequency, while two Equisetum taxa decreased. Instead, we showed that the magnitude and direction of changes in species richness and composition differ among sites.     

Climate Change and the Adaptability of Agriculture: A Review

ABSTRACT

The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate.

It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond.     

Thermodynamic analysis of in situ gasification-chemical looping combustion (<Emphasis Type="Italic">i</Emphasis>G-CLC) of Indian coal

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is an inherent CO₂ capture technology. It is gaining much interest in recent years mainly because of its potential in addressing climate change problems associated with CO₂ emissions from power plants. A typical chemical looping combustion unit consists of two reactors—fuel reactor, where oxidation of fuel occurs with the help of oxygen available in the form of metal oxides and, air reactor, where the reduced metal oxides are regenerated by the inflow of air. These oxides are then sent back to the fuel reactor and the cycle continues. The product gas from the fuel reactor contains a concentrated stream of CO₂ which can be readily stored in various forms or used for any other applications. This unique feature of inherent CO₂ capture makes the technology more promising to combat the global climate changes. Various types of CLC units have been discussed in literature depending on the type of fuel burnt. For solid fuel combustion three main varieties of CLC units exist namely: syngas CLC, in situ gasification-CLC (iG-CLC) and chemical looping with oxygen uncoupling (CLOU). In this paper, theoretical studies on the iG-CLC unit burning Indian coal are presented. Gibbs free energy minimization technique is employed to determine the composition of flue gas and oxygen carrier of an iG-CLC unit using Fe₂O₃, CuO, and mixed carrier—Fe₂O₃ and CuO as oxygen carriers. The effect of temperature, suitability of oxygen carriers, and oxygen carrier circulation rate on the performance of a CLC unit for Indian coal are studied and presented. These results are analyzed in order to foresee the operating conditions at which economic and smooth operation of the unit is expected.     

An assessment of the impact of climate change on air quality at two UK sites

Possible effects of climate change on air quality are studied for two urban sites in the UK, London and Glasgow. Hourly meteorological data were obtained from climate simulations for two periods representing the current climate and a plausible late 21st century climate. Of the meteorological quantities relevant to air quality, significant changes were found in temperature, specific humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, solar radiation, surface sensible heat flux and precipitation. Using these data, dispersion estimates were made for a variety of single sources and some significant changes in environmental impact were found in the future climate. In addition, estimates for future background concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ upwind of London and Glasgow were made using the meteorological data in a statistical model. These showed falls in NO_x and increases in ozone for London, while a fall in NO₂ was the largest percentage change for Glasgow. Other changes were small. With these background estimates, annual-average concentrations of NO_x, NO₂, ozone and PM₁₀ were estimated within the two urban areas. For London, results averaged over a number of sites showed a fall in NO_x and a rise in ozone, but only small changes in NO₂ and PM₁₀. For Glasgow, the changes in all four chemical species were small. Large-scale background ozone values from a global chemical transport model are also presented. These show a decrease in background ozone due to climate change. To assess the net impact of both large scale and local processes will require models which treat all relevant scales.     

Between uncertainty and hope: Young leaders as agents of change in sustainable small-scale fisheries

The path to sustainable small-scale fisheries (SSF) is based on multiple learning processes that must transcend generational changes. To understand young leaders from communities with sustainable SSF management practices in Mexico, we used in-depth interviews to identify their shared motivations and perceptions for accepting their fishing heritage. These possible future decision-makers act as agents of change due to their organizational and technological abilities. However, young people are currently at a crossroads. Many inherited a passion for the sea and want to improve and diversify the fishing sector, yet young leaders do not want to accept a legacy of complicated socioenvironmental conditions that can limit their futures. These future leaders are especially concerned by the uncertainty caused by climate change. If fishing and generational change are not valued in planning processes, the continuity of fisheries, the success of conservation actions, and the lifestyles of young fishers will remain uncertain.Graphical abstract Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01639-2.     

Climate forcing by the on-road transportation and power generation sectors

The on-road transportation (ORT) and power generation (PG) sectors are major contributors to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and a host of short-lived radiatively-active air pollutants, including tropospheric ozone and fine aerosol particles, that exert complex influences on global climate. Effective mitigation of global climate change necessitates action in these sectors for which technology change options exist or are being developed. Most assessments of possible energy change options to date have neglected non-CO₂ air pollutant impacts on radiative forcing (RF). In a multi-pollutant approach, we apply a global atmospheric composition-climate model to quantify the total RF from the global and United States (U.S.) ORT and PG sectors. We assess the RF for 2 time horizons: 20- and 100-year that are relevant for understanding near-term and longer-term impacts of climate change, respectively. ORT is a key target sector to mitigate global climate change because the net non-CO₂ RF is positive and acts to enhance considerably the CO₂ warming impacts. We perform further sensitivity studies to assess the RF impacts of a potential major technology shift that would reduce ORT emissions by 50% with the replacement energy supplied either by a clean zero-emissions source (S1) or by the PG sector, which results in an estimated 20% penalty increase in emissions from this sector (S2). We examine cases where the technology shift is applied globally and in the U.S. only. The resultant RF relative to the present day control is negative (cooling) in all cases for both S1 and S2 scenarios, global and U.S. emissions, and 20- and 100-year time horizons. The net non-CO₂ RF is always important relative to the CO₂ RF and outweighs the CO₂ RF response in the S2 scenario for both time horizons. Assessment of the full impacts of technology and policy strategies designed to mitigate global climate change must consider the climate effects of ozone and fine aerosol particles.     

Cold comfort: Arctic seabirds find refugia from climate change and potential competition in marginal ice zones and fjords

Climate change alters species distributions by shifting their fundamental niche in space through time. Such effects may be exacerbated by increased inter-specific competition if climate alters species dominance where competitor ranges overlap. This study used census data, telemetry and stable isotopes to examine the population and foraging ecology of a pair of Arctic and temperate congeners across an extensive zone of sympatry in Iceland, where sea temperatures varied substantially. The abundance of Arctic Brünnich’s guillemot Uria lomvia declined with sea temperature. Accessibility of refugia in cold water currents or fjords helped support higher numbers and reduce rates of population decline. Competition with temperate Common guillemots Uria aalge did not affect abundance, but similarities in foraging ecology were sufficient to cause competition when resources are limiting. Continued warming is likely to lead to further declines of Brünnich’s guillemot, with implications for conservation status and ecosystem services.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01650-7.