Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed,Ethiopia Using SWAT Model1

Setegn, Shimelis G., Bijan Dargahi, Ragahavan Srinivasan, and Assefa M. Melesse, 2010. Modeling of Sediment Yield From Anjeni-Gauged Watershed, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):514-526. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00431.x Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of sediment yield in Anjeni-gauged watershed, Ethiopia. Soil erosion and land degradation is a major problem on the Ethiopian highlands. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the performance and applicability of SWAT model in predicting monthly sediment yield and assess the impacts of subbasin delineation and slope discretization on the prediction of sediment yield. Ten years monthly meteorological, flow and sediment data were used for model calibration and validation. The annual average measured sediment yield was 24.6 tonnes/ha. The annual average simulated sediment yield was 27.8 and 29.5 tones/ha for calibration and validation periods, respectively. The study found that the observed values showed good agreement with the simulated sediment yield with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.81, percent bias (PBIAS) = 28%, RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) = 0.23, and coefficient of determination (R²) = 0.86 for calibration and NSE = 0.79, PBIAS = 30%, RSR = 0.29, and R² = 0.84 for validation periods. The model can be used for further analysis of different management scenarios that could help different stakeholders to plan and implement appropriate soil and water conservation strategies.     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.     

Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model1

Masih Ilyas, Shreedhar Maskey, Stefan Uhlenbrook, and Vladimir Smakhtin, 2011. Assessing the Impact of Areal Precipitation Input on Streamflow Simulations Using the SWAT Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):179‐195. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00502.x Abstract: Reduction of input uncertainty is a challenge in hydrological modeling. The widely used model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) uses the data of a precipitation gauge nearest to the centroid of each subcatchment as an input for that subcatchment. This may not represent overall catchment precipitation conditions well. This paper suggests an alternative – using areal precipitation obtained through interpolation. The effectiveness of this alternative is evaluated by comparing its simulations with those based on the standard SWAT precipitation input procedure. The model is applied to mountainous semiarid catchments in the Karkheh River basin, Iran. The model performance is evaluated at daily, monthly, and annual scales by using a number of performance indicators at 15 streamflow gauging stations each draining an area in the range of 590‐42,620 km². The comparison suggests that the use of areal precipitation improves model performance particularly in small subcatchments in the range of 600‐1,600 km². The modified areal precipitation input results in increased reliability of simulated streamflows in the areas of low rain gauge density. Both precipitation input methods result in reasonably good simulations for larger catchments (over 5,000 km²). The use of areal precipitation input improves the accuracy of simulated streamflows with spatial resolution and density of rain gauges having significant impact on results.     

PRISM vs. CFSR Precipitation Data Effects on Calibration and Validation of SWAT Models

Precipitation is one of the most important drivers in watershed models. Our objective was to compare two sources of interpolated precipitation data in terms of their effect on calibration and validation of two Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. One model was a suburban watershed in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. The precipitation sources were Parameter‐elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data on a 4‐km grid and climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data on a 38‐km grid. The PRISM data resulted in a better fit to the calibration data (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.64, Kling‐Gupta efficiency [KGE] = 0.74, p‐factor = 0.84, and r‐factor = 0.43) than the CFSR data (NSE = 0.47, KGE = 0.53, p‐factor = 0.67, and r‐factor = 0.39). Validation results were similar. Sensitive parameters were similar in both the PRISM and CFSR models, but fitted values indicated more rapid groundwater flow to the streams with the PRISM data. The same comparison was made in the Big Creek watershed located approximately 1,000 km away, in central Louisiana. Results were similar with a more responsive groundwater system indicating PRISM data may produce better predictions of streamflow because of a more accurate estimate of rainfall within a watershed or because of a denser grid. Our study implies PRISM is providing a better estimate than CFSR of precipitation within a watershed when rain gauge data are not available, resulting in more accurate simulations of streamflows at the watershed outlet. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Effect of Watershed Subdivision and Filter Width on SWAT Simulation of a Coastal Plain Watershed1

Cho, Jaepil, Richard R. Lowrance, David D. Bosch, Timothy C. Strickland, Younggu Her, and George Vellidis, 2010. Effect of Watershed Subdivision and Filter Width on SWAT Simulation of a Coastal Plain Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(3):586-602. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00436.x Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) does not fully simulate riparian buffers, but has a simple filter function that is responsive to filter strip width (FILTERW). The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate SWAT hydrology and water quality response to changes in watershed subdivision levels and different FILTERW configurations and (2) provide guidance for selecting appropriate watershed subdivision for model runs that include the riparian buffer feature through the FILTERW parameter. Watershed subdivision level is controlled by the critical source area (CSA) which defines the minimum drainage area required to form the origin of a stream. SWAT was calibrated on a 15.7 km² subdrainage within the Little River Experimental Watershed, Georgia. The calibrated parameter set was applied to 32 watershed configurations consisting of four FILTERW representations for each of eight CSA levels. Streamflow predictions were stable regardless of watershed subdivision and FILTERW configuration. Predicted sediment and nutrient loads from upland areas decreased as CSA increased when spatial variations of riparian buffers are considered. Sediment and nutrient yield at the watershed outlet was responsive to different combinations of CSA and FILTERW depending on selected in-stream processes. CSA ranges which provide stable sediment and nutrient yields at the watershed outlet was suggested for avoiding significant modifications in selected parameter set.     

Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho1

Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.     

Development of a SWAT Patch for Better Estimation of Sediment Yield in Steep Sloping Watersheds1

Abstract: The watershed scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model divides watersheds into smaller subwatersheds for simulation of rainfall‐runoff and sediment loading at the field level and routing through stream networks. Typically, the SWAT model first needs to be calibrated and validated for accurate estimation through adjustment of sensitive input parameters (i.e., Curve Number values, USLE P, slope and slope‐length, and so on). However, in some instances, SWAT‐simulated results are greatly affected by the watershed delineation and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) cell size. In this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed for steep sloping watersheds, and its performance was evaluated for various threshold values and DEM cell size scenarios when delineating subwatersheds using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was developed using the ArcView GIS Avenue program and Spatial Analyst libraries. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II improves upon the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch I because it reflects the topographic factor in calculating the field slope‐length of Hydrologic Response Units in the SWAT model. The simulated sediment value for 321 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 25 ha) is greater than that for 43 subwatersheds (watershed delineation threshold value of 200 ha) by 201% without applying the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, when the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II was applied, the difference in simulated sediment yield decreases for the same scenario (i.e., difference in simulated sediment with 321 subwatersheds and 43 subwatersheds) was 12%. The simulated sediment value for DEM cell size of 50 m is greater than that for DEM cell size of 10 m by 19.8% without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II. However, the difference becomes smaller (3.4% difference) between 50 and 10 m with the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II for the DEM scenarios. As shown in this study, the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II can reduce differences in simulated sediment values for various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios. Without the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II, variations in the SWAT‐simulated results using various watershed delineation and DEM cell size scenarios could be greater than those from input parameter calibration. Thus, the results obtained in this study show that the SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II should be used when simulating hydrology and sediment yield for steep sloping watersheds (especially if average slope of the subwatershed is >25%) for more accurate simulation of hydrology and sediment using the SWAT model. The SWAT ArcView GIS Patch II is available at http://www.EnvSys.co.kr/~swat for free download.     

CLIMATE CHHANGE SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT ON UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN STREAMFLOWS USING SWAT1

ABSTRACT: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the effects of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Calibration and validation of SWAT were performed using monthly stream flows for 1968–1987 and 1988–1997, respectively. The R² and Nash‐Sutcliffe simulation efficiency values computed for the monthly comparisons were 0.74 and 0.69 for the calibration period and 0.82 and 0.81 for the validation period. The effects of nine 30‐year (1968 to 1997) sensitivity runs and six climate change scenarios were then analyzed, relative to a scenario baseline. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ to 660 ppmv (while holding other climate variables constant) resulted in a 36 percent increase in average annual streamflow while average annual flow changes of ?49, ?26, 28, and 58 percent were predicted for precipitation change scenarios of ?20, ?10, 10, and 20 percent, respectively. Mean annual streamflow changes of 51,10, 2, ?6, 38, and 27 percent were predicted by SWAT in response to climate change projections generated from the CISRO‐RegCM2, CCC, CCSR, CISRO‐Mk2, GFDL, and HadCMS general circulation model scenarios. High seasonal variability was also predicted within individual climate change scenarios and large variability was indicated between scenarios within specific months. Overall, the climate change scenarios reveal a large degree of uncertainty in current climate change forecasts for the region. The results also indicate that the simulated UMRB hydrology is very sensitive to current forecasted future climate changes.     

Implications of Conceptual Channel Representation on SWAT Streamflow and Sediment Modeling

Hydrologic modeling outputs are influenced by how a watershed system is represented. Channel routing is a typical example of the mathematical conceptualization of watershed landscape and processes in hydrologic modeling. We investigated the sensitivity of accuracy, equifinality, and uncertainty of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling to channel dimensions to demonstrate how a conceptual representation of a watershed system affects streamflow and sediment modeling. Results showed the amount of uncertainty and equifinality strongly responded to channel dimensions. On the other hand, the model performance did not significantly vary with the changes in the channel representation due to the degree of freedom allowed by the conceptual nature of hydrologic modeling in the parameter calibration. Such findings demonstrated good modeling performance statistics do not necessarily mean small output uncertainty, and partial improvements in the watershed representation may neither increase modeling accuracy nor reduce uncertainty. We also showed the equifinality and uncertainty of hydrologic modeling are case‐dependent rather than specific to models or regions, suggesting great caution should be used when attempting to transfer uncertainty analysis results to other modeling studies, especially for ungauged watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Assessment of Water Availability and Scarcity Based on Hydrologic Components in an Irrigated Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

This study assesses the water availability and the water scarcity based on the hydrologic behavior under different weather conditions and crop coverages in an irrigated agricultural area of Rincon Valley in New Mexico using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two spatial crop coverages included normal (2008) and dry (2011) years with 14 different crop sets for each year. The SWAT was applied to generate the five essential indicators (surface flow, evapotranspiration, soil water, groundwater recharge, and irrigation water) to evaluate the integrated water availability based on hydrologic response units (HRUs) along with the Arrey Canal to supply irrigation water in the crop areas. The water availability index scores (0–1 range with 1 being the most available and 0 the least available) of alfalfa, corn, cotton, and pecans were 0.21, 0.56, 0.91, and 0.20, respectively, in the normal year and 0.16, 0.78, 0.88, and 0.24, respectively, in the dry year. In the dry year, water scarcity values were high in mostly alfalfa areas, whereas cotton areas have mostly no stress with good water availability. The major water users of crops, ranked in order, were alfalfa, pecans, cotton, and corn. During the dry year, water availability showed to be balanced in terms of water supply and demand by controlling crop patterns from reducing alfalfa acreage by 12% and increasing cotton acreage by 13%.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Streamflow Depletion Modeling: Methods for an Adaptable and Conjunctive Water Management Decision Support Tool

Groundwater pumping depletes streamflow, which can have significant ecological impacts depending on the magnitude of depletion relative to environmental flow needs. Streamflow depletion estimates from groundwater pumping have been quantified using both analytical and numerical methods, but are not routinely compared to environmental flow needs or used in practical water management tools. Decision support tools that incorporate groundwater dynamics are becoming increasingly necessary for water managers as groundwater regulations become more important in environmental policy, particularly concerning the preservation of environmental flow needs. We develop and apply methods for a web‐based decision support tool for conjunctive groundwater and surface water management, demonstrated using a case study watershed in British Columbia, Canada. Open‐source data are analyzed with a combination of spatial algorithms and previously developed analytical models, such that the tool can be applied to other regions. Streamflow depletion estimates are calculated in four regions in the largely undeveloped Bulkley Valley, British Columbia. Our transparent methodology has geographic and data input flexibility which is a significant improvement on currently existing water management tool methods.     

Hydrologic Calibration and Validation of SWAT in a Snow‐Dominated Rocky Mountain Watershed,Montana, U.S.A.1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been applied successfully in temperate environments but little is known about its performance in the snow‐dominated, forested, mountainous watersheds that provide much of the water supply in western North America. To address this knowledge gap, we configured SWAT to simulate the streamflow of Tenderfoot Creek (TCSWAT). Located in central Montana, TCSWAT represents a high‐elevation watershed with ～85% coniferous forest cover where more than 70% of the annual precipitation falls as snow, and runoff comes primarily from spring snowmelt. Model calibration using four years of measured daily streamflow, temperature, and precipitation data resulted in a relative error (RE) of 2% for annual water yield estimates, and mean paired deviations (Dv) of 36 and 31% and Nash‐Sutcliffe (NS) efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.86 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. Model validation was conducted using an additional four years of data and the performance was similar to the calibration period, with RE of 4% for annual water yields, Dv of 43% and 32%, and NS efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.76 for monthly and daily streamflow, respectively. An objective, regression‐based model invalidation procedure also indicated that the model was validated for the overall simulation period. Seasonally, SWAT performed well during the spring and early summer snowmelt runoff period, but was a poor predictor of late summer and winter base flow. The calibrated model was most sensitive to snowmelt parameters, followed in decreasing order of influence by the surface runoff lag, ground water, soil, and SCS Curve Number parameter sets. Model sensitivity to the surface runoff lag parameter reflected the influence of frozen soils on runoff processes. Results indicated that SWAT can provide reasonable predictions of annual, monthly, and daily streamflow from forested montane watersheds, but further model refinements could improve representation of snowmelt runoff processes and performance during the base flow period in this environment.     

Integration of SWAT and HSPF for Simulation of Sediment Sources in Legacy Sediment‐Impacted Agricultural Watersheds

A total maximum daily load for the Chesapeake Bay requires reduction in pollutant load from sources within the Bay watersheds. The Conestoga River watershed has been identified as a major source of sediment load to the Bay. Upland loads of sediment from agriculture are a concern; however, a large proportion of the sediment load in the Conestoga River has been linked to scour of legacy sediment associated with historic millpond sites. Clarifying this distinction and identifying specific segments associated with upland vs. channel sources has important implications for future management. In order to address this important question, we combined the strengths of two widely accepted watershed management models — Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for upland agricultural processes, and Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) for instream fate and transport — to create a novel linked modeling system to predict sediment loading from critical sources in the watershed including upland and channel sources, and to aid in targeted implementation of management practices. The model indicates approximately 66% of the total sediment load is derived from instream sources, in agreement with other studies in the region and can be used to support identification of these channel source segments vs. upland source segments, further improving targeted management. The innovated linked SWAT‐HSPF model implemented in this study is useful for other watersheds where both upland agriculture and instream processes are important sources of sediment load.     

Modeling of Escherichia coli Fluxes on a Catchment and the Impact on Coastal Water and Shellfish Quality1

Bougeard, Morgane, Jean‐Claude Le Saux, Nicolas Pérenne, Claire Baffaut, Marc Robin, and Monique Pommepuy, 2011. Modeling of Escherichia coli Fluxes on a Catchment and the Impact on Coastal Water and Shellfish Quality. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐17. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00520.x Abstract: The simulation of the impact of Escherichia coli loads from watersheds is of great interest for assessing estuarine water quality, especially in areas with shellfish aquaculture or bathing activities. For this purpose, this study investigates a model association based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) coupled with a hydrodynamic model (MARS 2D; IFREMER). Application was performed on the catchment and estuary of Daoulas area (France). The daily E. coli fluxes simulated by SWAT are taken as an input in the MARS 2D model to calculate E. coli concentrations in estuarine water and shellfish. Model validation is based on comparison of frequencies: a strong relationship was found between calculated and measured E. coli concentrations for river quality (r² = 0.99) and shellfish quality (r² = 0.89). The important influence of agricultural practices and rainfall events on the rapid and large fluctuations in E. coli fluxes from the watershed (reaching three orders of magnitude in <24 hours) is one main result of the study. Response time in terms of seawater quality degradation ranges from one to two days after any important rainfall event (greater than 10 mm/day) and the time for estuary to recover good water quality also mainly depends on the duration of the rainfall. In the estuary, three effects (rainfall, tidal dilution, and manure spreading) have been identified as important influences.     

Streamflow,Sediment Transport,and Geomorphic Change during the 2011 Flood on the Missouri River Near Bismarck–Mandan,ND

Geomorphic change from extreme events in large managed rivers has implications for river management. A steady‐state, quasi‐three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to a 29‐km reach of the Missouri River using 2011 flood data. Model results for an extreme flow (500‐year recurrence interval [RI]) and an elevated managed flow (75‐year RI) were used to assess sediment mobility through examination of the spatial distribution of boundary or bed shear stress (τ_b) and longitudinal patterns of average τ_b, velocity, and kurtosis of τ_b. Kurtosis of τ_b was used as an indicator of planform channel complexity and can be applied to other river systems. From differences in longitudinal patterns of sediment mobility for the two flows we can infer: (1) under extreme flow, the channel behaves as a single‐thread channel controlled primarily by flow, which enhances the meander pattern; (2) under elevated managed flows, the channel behaves as multithread channel controlled by the interaction of flow with bed and channel topography, resulting in a more complex channel; and (3) for both flows, the model reach lacks a consistent pattern of deposition or erosion, which indicates migration of areas of erosion and deposition within the reach. Despite caveats and limitations, the analysis provides useful information about geomorphic change under extreme flow and potential implications for river management. Although a 500‐year RI is rare, extreme hydrologic events such as this are predicted to increase in frequency.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

Large‐Scale Fine‐Resolution Hydrological Modeling Using Parameter Regionalization in the Missouri River Basin

This study simulated crop and water yields in the Missouri River Basin (MRB; 1,371,000 km²), one of the largest river basins in the United States, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) at a fine resolution of 12‐digit Hydrological Unit Codes (HUCs) using the regionalization calibration approach. Very few studies have simulated the entire MRB, and those that have developed were at a coarser resolution of 8‐digit HUCs and were minimally calibrated. The MRB was first divided into three subbasins and was further divided into eleven regions. A “head watershed” was selected in each region and was calibrated for crop and water yields. The parameters from the calibrated head watershed were extrapolated to other subwatersheds in the region to complete comprehensive spatial calibration. The simulated crop yields at the head watersheds were in close agreement with observed crop yields. Spatial validation of the aggregated crop yields resulted in reasonable predictions for all crops except dryland corn in a few regions. Simulated and observed water yields in head watersheds and also in the validation locations were in close agreement in naturalized streams and poor agreement in streams with high groundwater‐surface water interactions and/or reservoirs found upstream of the gauges. Overall, the SWAT model was able to reasonably capture the hydrological and crop growth dynamics occurring in the basin despite some limitations.     

Introduction to SWAT+, A Completely Restructured Version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

SWAT+ is a completely restructured version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that was developed to face present and future challenges in water resources modeling and management and to meet the needs of the worldwide user community. It is expected to improve code development and maintenance; support data availability, analysis, and visualization; and enhance the model's capabilities in terms of the spatial representation of elements and processes within watersheds. The most important change is the implementation of landscape units and flow and pollutant routing across the landscape. Also, SWAT+ offers more flexibility than SWAT in defining management schedules, routing constituents, and connecting managed flow systems to the natural stream network. To test the basic hydrologic function of SWAT+, it was applied to the Little River Experimental Watershed (Georgia) without enhanced overland routing and compared with previous models. SWAT+ gave similar results and inaccuracies as these models did for streamflow and water balance. Taking full advantage of the new capabilities of SWAT+ regarding watershed discretization and landscape and river interactions is expected to improve simulations in future studies. While many capabilities of SWAT have already been enhanced in SWAT+ and new capabilities have been added, the model will continue to evolve in response to advancements in scientific knowledge and the demands of the growing worldwide user community. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.