Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

Illinois State Water Survey Bulletin 75: New Precipitation Frequency Study for Illinois

Storm frequency estimates and their temporal distributions are important in determining estimates of runoff or peak flow rates in many engineering and hydrological problems. Illinois State Water Survey Bulletin 70 has been serving as the design rainfall standard in Illinois since its publication in 1989. Although Bulletin 70 represented the best available data at the time of its publication, the standards needed to be reevaluated and updated after more than three decades and with the growing evidence of the nonstationary nature of heavy precipitation. The trends in heavy precipitation in Illinois prompted the creation of a new frequency study named Bulletin 75, providing precipitation frequencies for event durations ranging from 5 min to 10 days and for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 months to 500 years. The results are presented for the same 10 geographic sections in Illinois as in Bulletin 70 to maintain the continuity of hydrologic studies and compatibility with regulations. The primary goal of this paper is to outline some of the key methodological issues and challenges, to compare the results with the previous sources, and to highlight the effects of the changing precipitation standards on the development of amendments to existing ordinances. Lake County in Illinois, as one of the most affected urban areas with the highest change in heavy precipitation, was selected to illustrate issues related to the application of modified precipitation standards.     

Flexibility in Water Resources Management: Review of Concepts and Development of Assessment Measures for Flood Management Systems

Discussions around adapting water management systems to climate change often express the need to increase system flexibility. Yet despite the frequent use of the term flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what features of a system make it more flexible than another system, or when the costs to implement flexible options outweigh the benefits gained from increased flexibility. To define and operationalize the concept of flexibility in the field of water resources management, this article reviews and analyzes concepts of flexibility from the fields of information technology, manufacturing, management, and adaptive social‐ecological systems. We identify five characteristics of flexible water resources systems, namely: slack, redundancy, connectivity, compatibility/coordination, and adjustability. We then operationalize the assessment of flexibility for flood management systems by proposing original flexibility metrics and discussing their application. We conclude with a discussion on the tradeoffs of increasing flexibility.     

A Framework to Develop Nationwide Flooding Extents Using Climate Models and Assess Forecast Potential for Flood Resilience

The methods used to simulate flood inundation extents can be significantly improved by high‐resolution spatial data captured over a large area. This paper presents a hydraulic analysis methodology and framework to estimate national‐level floodplain changes likely to be generated by climate change. The hydraulic analysis was performed using existing published Federal Emergency Management Agency 100‐year floodplains and estimated 100‐ and 10‐year return period peak flow discharges. The discharges were estimated using climate variables from global climate models for two future growth scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 and 8.5. River channel dimensions were developed based on existing regional United States Geological Survey publications relating bankfull discharges with channel characteristics. Mathematic relationships for channel bankfull topwidth, depth, and side slope to contributing drainage area measured at model cross sections were developed. The proposed framework can be utilized at a national level to identify critical areas for flood risk assessment. Existing hydraulic models at these “hot spots” could be repurposed for near–real‐time flood forecasting operations. Revitalizing these models for use in simulating flood scenarios in near–real time through the use of meteorological forecasts could provide useful information for first responders of flood emergencies.     

Projected Changes in Discharge in an Agricultural Watershed in Iowa

Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.     

Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation1

Young, Charles A., Marisa I. Escobar‐Arias, Martha Fernandes, Brian Joyce, Michael Kiparsky, Jeffrey F. Mount, Vishal K. Mehta, David Purkey, Joshua H. Viers, and David Yates, 2009. Modeling the Hydrology of Climate Change in California’s Sierra Nevada for Subwatershed Scale Adaptation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1409‐1423. Abstract: The rainfall‐runoff model presented in this study represents the hydrology of 15 major watersheds of the Sierra Nevada in California as the backbone of a planning tool for water resources analysis including climate change studies. Our model implementation documents potential changes in hydrologic metrics such as snowpack and the initiation of snowmelt at a finer resolution than previous studies, in accordance with the needs of watershed‐level planning decisions. Calibration was performed with a sequence of steps focusing sequentially on parameters of land cover, snow accumulation and melt, and water capacity and hydraulic conductivity of soil horizons. An assessment of the calibrated streamflows using goodness of fit statistics indicate that the model robustly represents major features of weekly average flows of the historical 1980‐2001 time series. Runs of the model for climate warming scenarios with fixed increases of 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C for the spatial domain were used to analyze changes in snow accumulation and runoff timing. The results indicated a reduction in snowmelt volume that was largest in the 1,750‐2,750 m elevation range. In addition, the runoff center of mass shifted to earlier dates and this shift was non‐uniformly distributed throughout the Sierra Nevada. Because the hydrologic model presented here is nested within a water resources planning system, future research can focus on the management and adaptation of the water resources system in the context of climate change.     

Streamflow Changes in the South Atlantic,United States During the Mid‐ and Late 20th Century1

Abstract: Repeated severe droughts over the last decade in the South Atlantic have raised concern that streamflow may be systematically decreasing, possibly due to climate variability. We examined the monthly and annual trends of streamflow, precipitation, and temperature in the South Atlantic for the time periods: 1934‐2005, 1934‐1969, and 1970‐2005. Streamflow and climate (temperature and precipitation) trends transitioned ca. 1970. From 1934 to 1969, streamflow and precipitation increased in southern regions and decreased in northern regions; temperature decreased throughout the South Atlantic. From 1970 to 2005, streamflow decreased, precipitation decreased, and temperature increased throughout the South Atlantic. It is unclear whether these will be continuing trends or simply part of a long‐term climatic oscillation. Whether these streamflow trends have been driven by climatic or anthropogenic changes, water resources management faces challenging prospects to adapt to decadal‐scale persistently wet and dry hydrologic conditions.     

Adaptation Bridges and Barriers in Water Planning and Management: Insight from Recent Extreme Droughts in Arizona and Georgia1

Abstract: It is critical to understand the ability of water management to prepare for and respond to the likely increasing duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts brought about by climate variability and change. This article evaluates this ability, or adaptive capacity, within large urban community water systems (CWSs) in Arizona and Georgia. It analyzes interview data on the bridges and barriers to adapting water management approaches in relation to extreme droughts over the past decade. This study not only finds levers for building adaptive capacity that are unique to each state but also identifies several unifying themes that cut across both cases. The interviews also show that a particular bridge or barrier, such as state regulation, is not universally beneficial or detrimental for building adaptive capacity within each state. Such knowledge is useful for improving water and drought management and for understanding how CWSs might prepare for future climate variability and change by removing the barriers and bolstering the bridges in efforts to build adaptive capacity.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Best Management Practices Under Climate Change Scenarios1

Woznicki, Sean A. and A. Pouyan Nejadhashemi, 2011. Sensitivity Analysis of Best Management Practices Under Climate Change Scenarios. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 90‐112. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00598.x Abstract: Understanding the sensitivity of best management practices (BMPs) implementation as climate changes will be important for water resources management. The objective of this study was to determine how the sensitivity of BMPs performance vary due to changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. Sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads on an annual and monthly basis were estimated before and after implementation of eight agricultural BMPs for different climate scenarios. Downscaled climate change data were obtained from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model for the Tuttle Creek Lake watershed in Kansas and Nebraska. Using a relative sensitivity index, native grass, grazing management, and filter strips were determined to be the most sensitive for all climate change scenarios, whereas porous gully plugs, no‐tillage, and conservation tillage were the least sensitive on an annual basis. The monthly sensitivity analysis revealed that BMP sensitivity varies largely on a seasonal basis for all climate change scenarios. The results of this research suggest that the majority of agricultural BMPs tested in this study are significantly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, caution should be exercised in the decision‐making processes.     

Adaptive capacity and climate change: the role of community opinion leaders

The contribution of the informal community sector to the development of collective response strategies to socioecological change is not well researched. In this article, we examine the role of community opinion leaders in developing and mobilising stocks of adaptive capacity. In so doing, we reveal a largely unexplored mechanism for building on latent social capital and associated networks that have the potential to transcend local-scale efforts – an enduring question in climate change adaptation and other cross-scalar sustainability issues. Participants drawn from diverse spheres of community activity in the Sunshine Coast, Australia, were interviewed about their strategies for influencing their community objectives and the degree to which they have engaged with responding to climate change. The results show community opinion leaders to be politically engaged through rich bridging connections with other community organisations, and vertically with policy-makers at local, state, national and international levels. Despite this latent potential, the majority of community opinion leaders interviewed were not strategically engaged with responding to climate change. This finding suggests that more work is needed to connect networks knowledgeable about projected climate change impacts with local networks of community opinion leaders. Attention to the type of community-based strategies considered effective and appropriate by community opinion leaders and their organisations also suggests avenues for policy-makers to facilitate community engagement in responding to climate change across sectors likely to be affected by its impacts. Opportunities to extend understanding of adaptive capacity within the community sector through further research are also suggested.     

Barriers and enablers to climate change adaptation in hierarchical governance systems: the case of Vietnam

Governments fulfil important roles in increasing the adaptive capacity of local communities to respond to climate change impacts, particularly in developing countries. Existing studies on how governments enable and constrain the ways in which local level communities learn and build their adaptive capacity, however, generally adopt network or market-oriented types of governance. However, the most vulnerable regions to climate change impact in the world are generally governed through hierarchical policy systems. This research aims to understand how the hierarchical policy system in Vietnam creates enables and/or constrains the policy capacity of policy actors to contribute to effective climate change adaptation. We conducted interviews (n?=?26) with key actors at multiple levels of government. Our findings show the importance of clear legal institutions, available financing for implementing policies, and the training of governmental staff, particularly at district and commune levels where the policy capacities are generally too low to deal with climate change impacts. We conclude that any efforts to support local actors (i.e. smallholder farmers) should include investments in policy capacity to ensure uptake and upscaling of adaptation actions more broadly.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin1

Mehta, Vikram M., Norman J. Rosenberg, and Katherin Mendoza, 2011. Simulated Impacts of Three Decadal Climate Variability Phenomena on Water Yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):126‐135. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00496.x Abstract: The Missouri River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States (U.S.), and is one of the most important crop and livestock‐producing regions in the world. In a previous study of associations between decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and hydro‐meteorological (HM) variability in the MRB, it was found that positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool (WPWP) temperature variability were significantly associated with decadal variability in precipitation and 2‐meter air temperature in the MRB, with combinations of various phases of these DCV phenomena associated with drought, flood, or neutral HM conditions. Here, we report on a methodology developed and applied to assess whether the aforementioned DCVs directly affect the hydrology of the MRB. The Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. (HUMUS) was used to simulate water yields in response to realistic values of the PDO, TAG, and WPWP at 75 widely distributed, eight‐digit hydrologic unit areas within the MRB. HUMUS driven by HM anomalies in both the positive and negative phases of the PDO and TAG resulted in major impacts on water yields, as much as ±20% of average water yield in some locations. Impacts of the WPWP were smaller. The combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on the MRB HM and water availability can be dramatic with important consequences for the MRB.     

Climate Change Impacts and Uncertainties on Spring Flooding of Lake Champlain and the Richelieu River

The source of the Richelieu River is Lake Champlain, located between the states of New York, Vermont, and Québec. In 2011, the lake and the Richelieu River reached historical flood levels, raising questions about the influence of climate change on the watershed. The objectives of this work are to model the hydrology of the watershed, construct a reservoir model for the lake and to analyze flooding trends using climate simulations. The basin was modeled using the HSAMI lumped conceptual model from Hydro‐Québec with a semi‐distributed approach in order to estimate the inflows into Lake Champlain. The discharge at the Richelieu River was computed by using a mass balance equation between the inputs and outputs of Lake Champlain. Future trends were estimated over the 2041‐2070 and 2071‐2100 periods using a large number of outputs from general circulation models and regional climate models downscaled with constant scaling and daily translation methods. While there is a certain amount of uncertainty as to future trends, there is a decreasing tendency in the magnitude of the mean spring flood. A flood frequency analysis showed most climate projections indicate the severity of most extreme spring floods may be reduced over the two future periods although results are subject to a much larger uncertainty than for the mean spring flood. On the other hand, results indicate summer‐fall extreme events such as caused by hurricane Irene in August 2011 may become more frequent in the future.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Projections of 21st Century Sierra Nevada Local Hydrologic Flow Components Using an Ensemble of General Circulation Models1

Abstract: Sierra Nevada snowmelt and runoff is a key source of water for many of California’s 38 million residents and nearly the entire population of western Nevada. The purpose of this study was to assess the impacts of expected 21st Century climatic changes in the Sierra Nevada at the subwatershed scale, for all hydrologic flow components, and for a suite of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with two emission scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated at 35 unimpaired streamflow sites. Results show that temperatures are projected to increase throughout the Sierra Nevada, whereas precipitation projections vary between GCMs. These climatic changes drive a decrease in average annual streamflow and an advance of snowmelt and runoff by several weeks. The largest streamflow reductions were found in the mid‐range elevations due to less snow accumulation, whereas the higher elevation watersheds were more resilient due to colder temperatures. Simulation results showed that decreases in snowmelt affects not only streamflow, but evapotranspiration, surface, and subsurface flows, such that less water is available in spring and summer, thus potentially affecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Declining spring and summer flows did not equally affect all subwatersheds in the region, and the subwatershed perspective allowed for identification for the most sensitive basins throughout the Sierra Nevada.     

Use of observed hydroclimatic trends to constrain projections of snowmelt season runoff in the Rio Grande headwaters

A method is developed for choosing 21st Century streamflow projections among widely varying results from a large ensemble of climate model-driven simulations. We quantify observed trends in climate–streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande headwaters, which has experienced warming temperature and declining snowpack since the mid-20th Century. Prominent trends in the snowmelt runoff season are used to assess corresponding statistics in downscaled global climate model projections. We define “Observationally Consistent (OC)” simulations as those that reproduce historical changes to linear statistics of diminished snowpack–streamflow coupling in the headwaters and an associated increase in the contribution of spring season (post-peak snowpack) precipitation to streamflow. Only a modest fraction of the ensemble of simulations meets these consistency metrics. The subset of OC simulations projects significant decreases in headwaters flow, whereas the simulations that poorly replicate historical trends exhibit a much wider range of projected changes. These results bolster confidence in model-based projections of declining runoff in the Rio Grande headwaters in the snowmelt runoff season and offer an example of a methodology for evaluating model-based projections in basins with similar hydroclimates that have experienced pronounced climate changes in the recent historical record.     

Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Recent Changes in Stream Flashiness and Flooding,and Effects of Flood Management in North Carolina and Virginia

The southeastern United States has undergone anthropogenic changes in landscape structure, with the potential to increase (e.g., urbanization) and decrease (e.g., reservoir construction) stream flashiness and flooding. Assessment of the outcome of such change can provide insight into the efficacy of current strategies and policies to manage water resources. We (1) examined trends in precipitation, floods, and stream flashiness and (2) assessed the relative influence of land cover and flow‐regulating features (e.g., best management practices and artificial water bodies) on stream flashiness from 1991 to 2013. We found mean annual precipitation decreased, which coincided with decreasing trends in floods. In contrast, stream flashiness, overall, showed an increasing trend during the period of study. However, upon closer examination, 20 watersheds showed stable stream flashiness, whereas 5 increased and 6 decreased in flashiness. Urban watersheds were among those that increased or decreased in flashiness. Watersheds that increased in stream flashiness gained more urban cover, lost more forested cover and had fewer best management practices installed than urban watersheds that decreased in stream flashiness. We found best management practices are more effective than artificial water bodies in regulating flashy floods. Flashiness index is a valuable and straightforward metric to characterize changes in streamflow and help to assess the efficacy of management interventions.     

Climatic Fluctuations and Forecasting of Streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin1

Abstract:  Water‐resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water‐resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25‐ to 30‐year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R² value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R² value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15.