Bewertungsansatz von Umweltmonitoring-Informationssystemen in Ballungsräumen

Comprehensive data on environmental monitoring programs concerned with air pollutants like ozone (O₃), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen oxide (NO), carbon dioxide (CO₂) und carbon monoxide (CO), and occassionally suspended dust, benzene and other environmental chemicals, are available on the free Internet. As different monitoring information systems exist in most states or big cities of the Federal Republic of Germany, a comparison of these systems with their pros and cons is of great interest to the public. Environmental air pollutant monitoring systems in 16 states of Germany are listed and evaluated by applying 5 evaluation criteria for the differentiation of these systems. Different data-analysis methods will be applied, the Hasse diagram technique, a method derived from discrete mathematics and the partially Ordered Scalogram Analysis with Coordinates (POSAC) method, a multivariate statistical approach. The important objects, the so-called maximal or minimal objects, are detected in both methods. The Internet-based environmental monitoring systems of the states of Berlin, Bremen, Saxony-Anhalt, Baden-Wurttemberg are rated good in the evaluation approaches, whereas the information systems of the states of Brandenburg, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony received a rather poor ranking. The attributes of DA, way of data presentation on the Internet, and ME, type and length of measurements, were pointed out in the data-analysis methods. Multivariate explorative statistical methods offer a comprehensive tool for the graphical analysis of data-matrices. The ranking of objects is given in an effective and graphically comprehensible manner using the Hasse diagram technique. The choice and preference of the methods is problem-driven. A combination of these different methods is envisaged in the authors’ future research.     

Multiple indicators, partially ordered sets, and linear extensions: Multi-criterion ranking and prioritization

This paper is concerned with the question of ranking a finite collection of objects when a suite of indicator values is available for each member of the collection. The objects can be represented as a cloud of points in indicator space, but the different indicators (coordinate axes) typically convey different comparative messages and there is no unique way to rank the objects while taking all indicators into account. A conventional solution is to assign a composite numerical score to each object by combining the indicator information in some fashion. Consciously or otherwise, every such composite involves judgments (often arbitrary or controversial) about tradeoffs or substitutability among indicators. Rather than trying to combine indicators, we take the view that the relative positions in indicator space determine only a partial ordering and that a given pair of objects may not be inherently comparable. Working with Hasse diagrams of the partial order, we study the collection of all rankings that are compatible with the partial order (linear extensions). In this way, an interval of possible ranks is assigned to each object. The intervals can be very wide, however. Noting that ranks near the ends of each interval are usually infrequent under linear extensions, a probability distribution is obtained over the interval of possible ranks. This distribution, called the rank-frequency distribution, turns out to be unimodal (in fact, log-concave) and represents the degree of ambiguity involved in attempting to assign a rank to the corresponding object. Stochastic ordering of probability distributions imposes a partial order on the collection of rank-frequency distributions. This collection of distributions is in one-to-one correspondence with the original collection of objects and the induced ordering on these objects is called the cumulative rank-frequency (CRF) ordering; it extends the original partial order. Although the CRF ordering need not be linear, it can be iterated to yield a fixed point of the CRF operator. We hypothesize that the fixed points of the CRF operator are exactly the linear orderings. The CRF operator treats each linear extension as an equal voter in determining the CRF ranking. It is possible to generalize to a weighted CRF operator by giving linear extensions differential weights either on mathematical grounds (e.g., number of jumps) or empirical grounds (e.g., indicator concordance). Explicit enumeration of all possible linear extensions is computationally impractical unless the number of objects is quite small. In such cases, the rank-frequencies can be estimated using discrete Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.     

Multicriteria prioritization and partial order in environmental sciences

The complexity of the present data-centric world finds its expression in the increasing number of multi-indicator systems. This has led to the development of multicriteria ranking systems based on partial orders. Order theory is a main pillar of structural mathematics. Partial orders help to reveal why an object of interest holds a certain ranking position and how much it is subject to change if a composite indicator is upgraded. Order theory helps to derive linear or weak orders without indicator weighting schemes. Hence, rankings obtained from decision support systems (DSS) which depend on many parameters beyond the data matrix can be checked and discrepancies can lead to examine the parameters of the DSS. Order theory helps discover association and implication structures derived from formal concept lattices. Association and implication networks among the attributes of the data matrix allow more insights into multi-indicator systems and lead to new hypotheses and motivate further research. Some new and innovative concepts, like separated subsets, antagonistic indicators, ranking stability fields are rendered. Separated subsets are the typical outcome of a partial order analysis; their identification leads to antagonistic indicators, which are responsible for the separatedness of object’s subsets. Numerical aggregation can be performed step-by-step and the question which values of a weight lead to an order inversion is of high interest. The concept of stability fields is one possible answer, discussed in this paper. After an outline of partial order theory some more specific theoretical results are shown, then we discuss the role of composite indicators in the light of partial order and give some examples of interesting applications of partial order. Finally examples are selected from real life case studies of watersheds, environmental performance evaluations, child well being, geographic and administrative regions and more.     

Preliminary prioritization based on partial order theory and R software for compositional complexes in landscape ecology,with applications to restoration,remediation, and enhancement

The present purpose is to provide convenient computational capability and visualizations for preliminary partial or progressive prioritization based largely on concepts of partial order theory and implemented in R software as illustrated in a context of conservation and sustainable stewardship across landscapes with ecosystem services as a complex multidimensional domain that must be placed in public and private perspective in pursuit of multi-resource management. Practical perspective is promoted by graphic visualization with local partial order modeling (LPOM) methods for screening of settings and scenarios involving interactions of ecosystem elements as evidenced by environmental indicators. ORDIT ordering and precedence plots arise from ascribed advantage as an outcome of a rating regime. Representative ranks constitute criteria drawn from the rank distribution for the case in question. Distal data are determined with regard to remediation and retention. Median mismatches reflect interplay of indicators appearing as isolated instances in plotting patterns. A suggested strategy to circumvent computational constraints is partitioning the pool of cases into collectives by clustering, pursuing classes of partitions, and then prioritizing in particular partitions. When prime prospects have been obtained, detailed determinations can be done with partial ordering procedures involving Hasse diagrams and similarly complex constructs that are difficult to apply with many cases and/or indicator criteria.     

The impact of coastal flooding on conservation areas: A study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland

This study examines the impact of flooding on land of high conservation value located along part of the southern shoreline of the River Clyde Estuary in western Scotland. This paper hypothesizes that, over the next 50 years, the frequency and extent of coastal flooding will increase due to the gradual effect of global warming and the consequent rise in sea-level and increase in storminess. It is argued that because of the great cost of constructing new flood defence systems it will not be possible to protect all land areas to an equal extent from flooding. A means of ranking different land use will be necessary so that society can make a rational judgement concerning which sections of coastline will be worth protecting. This study provides a methodology that combines an objective ranking of conservation areas using non-economic indicators with a GIS model of flood potential, and permits accurate forecasts of flood losses to conservation areas of different ecological value. The conservation case study used in this paper proposes the use of an ecological weighting value based on five ecological variables each of 10 categories. Tables and maps identify the sites that have been highlighted as consisting of the most ‘valuable’ conservation sites. The methodology makes extensive use of geographical information systems (GIS) to model the predicted areas of flooding and to calculate conservation weighting values of the land areas.     

Order restricted randomized designs and two sample inference

This paper develops a new design that relies on subjective judgment ranking to compare subsets of experimental units. This judgment ranking is used along with restricted randomization to improve statistical inference for the contrast between two levels of a treatment. The new design assigns the judgment ranked units in a subset to different treatments. Such an assignment translates the positive dependence among units within each subset into negative dependence for the estimators of treatment means, and hence leads to a reduction in variance for the contrast. For the proposed design, a test for the difference in means of two treatment levels is developed along with an associated confidence interval. It is shown that the null distribution of the proposed test is approximated reasonably well with the Student’s t-distribution for sample sizes as small as 6. A simulation study indicates that the proposed design is advantageous compared to its competitors in the literature for both high and low quality rankings. The new design’s advantage increases with the quality of rankings.     

The impact of coastal flooding on conservation areas: A study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland

This study examines the impact of flooding on land of high conservation value located along part of the southern shoreline of the River Clyde Estuary in western Scotland. This paper hypothesizes that, over the next 50 years, the frequency and extent of coastal flooding will increase due to the gradual effect of global warming and the consequent rise in sea-level and increase in storminess. It is argued that because of the great cost of constructing new flood defence systems it will not be possible to protect all land areas to an equal extent from flooding. A means of ranking different land use will be necessary so that society can make a rational judgement concerning which sections of coastline will be worth protecting. This study provides a methodology that combines an objective ranking of conservation areas using non-economic indicators with a GIS model of flood potential, and permits accurate forecasts of flood losses to conservation areas of different ecological value. The conservation case study used in this paper proposes the use of an ecological weighting value based on five ecological variables each of 10 categories. Tables and maps identify the sites that have been highlighted as consisting of the most ‘valuable’ conservation sites. The methodology makes extensive use of geographical information systems (GIS) to model the predicted areas of flooding and to calculate conservation weighting values of the land areas.     

Infant mortality and social environment in Georgia: an application of hotspot detection and prioritization

Recent years have witnessed the growth of new information technologies and their applications to various disciplines. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate how the two innovative methods, upper level set scan (ULS) hotspot detection and the multicriteria prioritization scheme, facilitate population health and break new ground in public health surveillance. It is believed that the social environment (i.e. social conditions and social capital) is one of the determinants of human health. Using infant health data and 10 additional indicators of social environment in the 159 counties of Georgia, ULS identified 52 counties that are in double jeopardy (high infant mortality and a high rate of low infant birth weight). The multicriteria ranking scheme suggested that there was no conspicuous spatial cluster of ranking orders, which improved the traditional decision making by visual geographic cluster. Both hotspot detection and ranking methods provided an empirical basis for re-allocating limited resources and several policy implications could be drawn from these analytic results.     

Basic features,conjunctive searches,and the confusion effect in predator–prey interactions

The confusion effect describes the observed decrease in the likelihood that a predator will successfully catch any prey when attacking larger groups of moving prey. We introduce readers to the work of cognitive psychologists interested in human visual attention who have been studying their own version of the confusion effect for many years, developing methods and concepts that may be of fundamental utility to behavioral ecologists. In psychology, ‘basic features’ are characteristics unique to a target object in the visual field that no distracter objects share. Images containing targets with basic features are often less likely to induce the confusion effect in human subjects. Target objects with conjunctions of features, on the other hand, have no individual characteristics unique from distracters, but unique characteristics in combination. Such targets more often induce the confusion effect in humans. We propose the ‘basic feature’ (vs. conjunctions of features) as a new organizing concept for studies on the occurrence of the confusion effect in nature, potentially allowing predictions about which types of prey groups are likely to induce the confusion effect in predators.     

Towards a spatial information infrastructure for flood management in The Netherlands

The immense value of a geographic information system for flood control has been experienced by the decision-markers of the Dutch province of Gelderland during the flood of the Rivers Meuse (Maas) and Waal in January 1995. Super-imposing different ‘data layers’, GIS-experts could detect the weak parts in the dikes and generate and evacuation plan. Shortcomings within the organization were experienced as well: important data could not be retrieved, and the coordination of efforts by the different governmental departments and institutions was not optimal. To overcome these shortcomings and to optimize the modelling process, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) is being proposed, aggregating several models, heuristic and procedural, into integrated software tools. As becomes clear from two cases of flood control described, ‘emergency managers’ should be able to communicate about spatial data available and have access to selected spatial data. In order to improve communication between data sources, data processing and the use of relevant spatial data in GISs, a new ‘Spatial Information Infrastructure’ (SII) needs to be developed. This requires both technical and organizational solutions and standards. Proper documentation of the data will allow the GIS-experts to more quickly find, store, update and reuse the data. A range of ‘metadata’ services exist documenting data sets, typically limited by thematic or national boundaries. There are no standards in common practice for structuring and classifying spatial information. The user of spatial information cannot easily browse across Web-sites and compare products from different suppliers. Even, if the search has been successful, the user all too often has to face a complex process of negotiation, and highly technical data integration issues. A consortium of European GIS-experts has addressed these problems and launched the ‘European Spatial Metadata Infrastructure’ (ESMI) project with the objective to link existing and future metadata systems using Internet.     

Interactions between water and land in The Netherlands

The Netherlands are one of the most densely populated coastal countries in the world and there is only limited space for living, working, transport and recreation, while there is also the need to preserve and expand valuable natural habitats. In order to solve many existing and future conflicts of interest, and in order to create ‘added value’, strategies are developed to optimize the use of water-land systems. The principle of ‘building with nature’ is applied in order to integrate land in sea and water in land in such a way that future generations will be able to use coastal resources in a sustainable way, including a minimal effort to maintain the coastline and the promotion of a multiple-use system. The concept of Integrated multifunctional sustainable coastal zone development is introduced. This concept deals with a balanced approach to the lack of space for present and future coastal uses in relation to each other, to the hinterland, and to the sea. Flexible master plans are developed, taking into account many functions of the coastal zone, and facilitating adaptation to future developments—e.g. impacts of climate change and relative sea level rise. In this regard increasing the flexibility of the coastal zone is of vital importance. Large-scale coastal land reclamations in The Netherlands are dealt with, based on two different principles: (1) polder systems (low lying land reclamations surrounded and protected by dikes), (2) systems of ‘building with nature’—land reclamation protected by man-made foreshores, beaches and dunes. In the latter type new flexible dynamic-equilibrium coasts are created for many functions, while coastal vulnerability is reduced and a flexible coast is developed.     

Prioritization of Ecosystem Services Research: Tampa Bay Demonstration Project

The Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) is part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Services Research Program. The principal objectives of TBESDP are to (1) quantify the ecosystem services of the Tampa Bay watershed, (2) determine the value of ecosystem services to society, (3) predict the supply of ecosystem services under future scenarios of population growth and climate change, and (4) apply this knowledge through models and tools that will support the best informed environmental decisions possible. The scope and complexity of this project required intensive effort to establish which services can be quantified by applying existing models, data, and scientific literature and which services will require supporting research. Research priorities were assessed by: (1) developing and refining conceptual models of major ecosystems in the Tampa Bay region, (2) gathering input from stakeholders about the relative importance and values of various ecosystem services, (3) preparing and reviewing a bibliometric analysis of the volume of scientific literature relevant to the ecosystems and services of interest, and (4) evaluating an integrated analysis of importance, value, and availability of scientific information. This analysis led us to focus on two research priorities, seagrass-habitat functions as support for fishery production, and wetlands as regulators of water quality.     

Do female bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) mate multiply to improve on previous mates?

Contrary to classical sexual selection theories, females of many taxa mate with multiple males during one reproductive cycle. In this study, we conducted an experiment on the “trade-up hypothesis”, which proposes that females remate if a subsequently encountered male is potentially superior to previous mates to maximize the genetic quality of their offspring. We presented bank vole females (Clethrionomys glareolus) sequentially with two males of known dominance rank in different orders, i.e., either first subordinate and second dominant, first dominant and second subordinate, or two males that were equal in dominance (high ranking) and observed their mating behavior. We found that 92% of the females mated multiply and did not base their remating decision on male social status. Therefore, polyandry cannot be explained by the “trade-up hypothesis” based on dominance rank in this species. However, we found that dominant males sired significantly more offspring than subordinate males. This varied according to mating order: dominant males sired more offspring when they were second than when they were first. Moreover, litter sizes were significantly smaller when the dominant male was first (smallest relative success of dominant males) compared to litter sizes when mating order was reversed or both males equal in status. Our results suggest that even though multimale mating includes males that are of poorer quality and thus potentially decreases the fitness of offspring, most of a female’s offspring are sired by dominant males. Whether this is due to cryptic female choice, sperm competition, or a combination of both, remains to be tested.     

Freshwaters: which NOM matters?

One of the difficulties encountered in the study of natural organic matter (NOM) in aquatic environments concerns terminology: a large number of different names and acronyms are used. In fact, this diversity merely reflects the variety of approaches applied to the study of NOM, leading to the definition and measurement of different operationally-defined fractions. As a result, the choice of the ‘best’ method to use and of the ‘best’ fraction to work on in a particular case is far from straightforward. This has as a consequence that often very simple methods for NOM characterisation are used in applied environmental studies and surveys. This study includes, first, a review of the most widely applied terminology, as described in over 500 articles, and, second, a first attempt at assessing how the panoply of methods available is really used in applied environmental studies.     

Managing mangroves in Bangladesh: A strategy analysis

Bangladesh, favoured by a tropical climate, houses the world’s largest stretch of mangroves forests (Sundarbans Reserved Forest) and plantations. Around half of the forests of the country occur in the coastal zone. People extract various goods and services from the mangroves. Nevertheless the mangrove forests are depleting. Although the extent of the Sundarbans forest has not changed much, its decline is of a qualitative nature. Mangrove plantations are increasing in area but they are losing growing stock. To arrest this, Bangladesh has adopted several strategies. The ‘Sustainable Ecosystem Management’ strategy has now been adopted instead of the ‘Sustained Yield Principle’. Biodiversity conservation and enhancement has been taken as a key management goal. A zoning system is being developed for both production and protection purposes. The government facilitates alternative income for the local people by generating activities for the communities which are dependent on the forest. Different non-governmental organizations collaborate with the government in reducing the local people’s dependence on the forest. Coastal plantations are erected to protect people from cyclones and to make the land more suitable for habitation. Through this greening of the coastal belt tree plantation is encouraged in coastal villages. Coastal embankments are being planted and leased to poor settlers in exchange for routine maintenance of the embankments. Plantations on newly accreted mud flats help in stabilizing the land, which can later on be settled by victims of erosion elsewhere. These adopted management measures do not only contribute to forestry resource management but also to the social, environmental and economic wellbeing of the coastal communities. These efforts are at present being integrated into an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) project.     

Trinkwasserschutzgebiete

Conflict are frequently observed when drinking water protection areas are to be defined and when many variants of how to protect these area are to be found. Using ten potential scenarios, a method is presented here which shows how such conflicts concerning these variants may be handled in a systematic manner. The technique is derived from the use of partially ordered sets and their visualization by Hasse diagrams. The first step is to define rankings of different variants according to each aim of protection. A further step is to define an appropriate relationship of order. It is then possible to visualize the extent of consensus and of dissension through the use of a Hasse diagram. The final step is to quantify the importance of each protection aim and the initialization of an iteration. Should a complete consensus be found, this would result in a chain of (connected) variants. Should a complete dissension be found on the other hand, an antichain would then result (i.e. where all variants are isolated).     

Maritime spatial planning: opportunities &; challenges in the framework of the EU integrated maritime policy

In recent years, maritime spatial planning (MSP) has become an internationally emerging, promising tool for the implementation of integrated ocean management. MSP provides the appropriate framework for public authorities and stakeholders to coordinate their action across sectors and administrative boundaries, and to optimize the use of natural resources. In November 2008 the European Commission adopted the Communication “Roadmap for Maritime Spatial Planning: Achieving Common Principles in the EU” (COM(2008) 791 final) aiming to facilitate the development of MSP by Member States and to stimulate its implementation at national and EU level. Core element of this Roadmap is a set of ten key principles for MSP in Europe. Although endorsed as valid and comprehensive, further discussion and research is needed to identify challenges, measures and tools for the key principle’s practical application. This special issue of the Journal of Coastal Conservation: Planning and Management (JCCPM) seeks to contribute to this discussion. Its purpose is to shed light from different angles on the various aspects of the mentioned ten key principles and provide lessons learned from experience in different maritime areas around the world. Taking a more scientific, rather than a political point of view, the following articles will debate the different principles, their practical handling, as well as the consequences linked to their application.     

Development of a ‘Matrix Scoring Technique’ to determine litter sources at a Bristol Channel beach

Litter at beaches can come from more than one source and determining the proportions to assign pollution to different sources is very complex. There is no widely accepted methodology at present that links litter items to their source. The aim of this study was to create a method of assigning a source to litter found on beaches of the Bristol Channel but which could equally be used on any beach. Various methods that attempt to establish the source of beach litter were evaluated; their strengths, weaknesses, applicability and reliability for use on Bristol Channel, UK beaches were considered. Elements of existing methods coupled with new ideas were utilized in the production of a ‘refined’ methodology: consequently a new method of assigning a source to beach litter was developed. The developed ‘Matrix Scoring Technique’ was applied to data collected at Minehead beach on the Bristol Channel, UK. Several numerical and nomenclature variations were used to produce a system that reflected the various sources and eliminated as much bias as possible. This cross-tabulated matrix scoring system can produce an insight into the contribution of different source groups to litter found on beaches. This novel approach requires further testing with emphasis on a control data set.     

Differences in abalone growth and morphology between locations with high and low food availability: morphologically fixed or plastic traits?

Many species of sedentary marine invertebrates exhibit large spatial variation in their morphology, which allow them to occupy a broad geographic distribution and range of environmental conditions. However, the detection of differences in morphology amongst variable environments cannot determine whether these differences represent a plastic response to the local environment, or whether morphology is genetically fixed. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment to test whether ‘stunted’ blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) are the result of a plastic response to the environment or fixed genetic trait. Furthermore, we related environmental factors, that affect food availability (density of abalone, water movement, algal cover and reef topography), to differences in growth and morphology. Morphological plasticity was confirmed as the mechanism causing morphological variation in H. rubra. Individuals transplanted to sites with ‘non-stunted’ H. rubra grew significantly faster when compared to stunted controls, whilst individuals transplanted to stunted sites grew significantly slower compared to non-stunted controls. The growth response was greater for individuals transplanted from ‘non-stunted’ to ‘stunted’ sites, suggesting that the environmental stressors in morphologically ‘stunted’ habitat are stronger compared to locations of faster growing morphology. We propose that these differences are related to resource availability whereby low algal cover and topographic simplicity results in stunted populations, whereas high algal abundance and topographic complexity results in non-stunted populations.     

The reproductive ecology of the invasive ascidian, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Styela clava,</Emphasis> in Auckland Harbour,New Zealand

The ascidian Styela clava, native to the north-west Pacific, is an invasive species affecting New Zealand’s marine ecosystems, biodiversity and aquaculture operations. To provide detailed information on the reproductive biology of S. clava in New Zealand for post-border biosecurity management, long-term seasonal patterns of gametogenesis were determined from May 2006 to May 2008 in Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour (36°49′20″S, 174°45′85″E). Of particular interest was whether the critical 15°C threshold spawning temperature for reproduction observed in the Northern Hemisphere applied here to the first Southern Hemisphere study. S. clava gametogenesis followed a regular seasonal cycle with ripe gametes appearing as early as September and persisting to June; this time frame corresponds to the period when sea surface temperatures in the region first reach 15°C and with spawning occurring mainly during late summer to early autumn. From photoperiod manipulation, it was determined that spawning occurred at approximately 18:20. The extended reproductive period and a short generation time in the Waitemata Harbour provides a lengthy opportunity for S. clava to spread. Findings are discussed in relation to S. clava’s post-border management.