中国石化和化工行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

石化和化工行业是我国经济发展的支柱性产业,但同时也是高耗能、高排放行业。平衡石化和化工行业发展与碳达峰、碳中和之间的关系,制定科学、合理的减排措施,是实现石化和化工行业低碳绿色发展的重要措施。为此,研究围绕石化和化工重点行业,利用专家型和基于模型的边际成本曲线对我国石化和化工行业的关键减排技术及减排成本进行分析。研究结果显示,我国石化和化工行业平均减排成本为298元/tCO₂,2035年累积碳减排量为4.4亿t,约占行业碳排放总量的30%。与节能减排措施相比,能源替代手段具有较高的减排成本,但也同时具有较高的减排潜力。2035年,能源替代的减排潜力占到总减排潜力的62%。未来,应着力推动传统煤化工行业能源利用向可再生、清洁能源的转变,助推石化和化工行业碳达峰、碳中和目标的实现。     

中国建筑部门二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

由于中国正处于高速城市建设阶段,建筑部门能耗超出国家全社会能耗的1/5。随着"双碳"目标的提出,将鼓励更多的节能技术和促进建筑部门碳减排政策。基于此,通过评估建筑部门在碳达峰年前后的建筑存量,筛选关键减排技术,对比分析了不同减排技术的应用对建筑部门的经济效益和减排潜力的影响情况。结果显示:2025,2030,2035年,中国建筑存量将分别达到763亿,817亿,857亿m2。筛选出的26项建筑部门关键减排技术应用将在2025,2030,2035年带来4.62亿,4.74亿和4.68亿t CO₂减排潜力,年度平均碳减排成本为1604元/t,年度总减排成本为2960.2亿,3353.4亿,2685.6亿元。4个建筑子部门中,在建筑碳排放达峰前（2020年和2025年）、后（2030年和2035年）CO₂减排潜力最大的子部门由北方城镇供暖转变为农村居住建筑。各项减排技术在边际减排成本（MAC）曲线上的分布较为分散,即各子部门可通过比选各项技术特征推广有效的减排技术。因此,绘制预测年建筑部门减排技术的MAC曲线,能够为建筑行业碳达峰期间筛选经济高效的减排技术提供思路。     

中国水泥行业二氧化碳减排技术及成本研究

为降低水泥行业碳减排成本,确定最优碳减排技术路径,研究基于经济-能源模型,核算中国水泥行业最新碳减排技术的边际减排成本,使用情景分析方法,研究了与未实施减排技术相比,2020年17项技术的碳减排潜力,并将其作为基准情景,和2025,2030,2035年3个未来情景的碳减排潜力作比较,从而得出不同情景下的边际减排成本曲线。结果表明:1）2020年我国水泥行业17项减排技术的平均减排成本为124元/tCO₂,2020年实现总减排量3043万t,总减排成本为10.3亿元;在保持技术水平和排放水平不变的情况下,2035年17项减排技术可实现总减排量21307万t,总减排成本为103.4亿元。2）在各项减排技术中,集成模块化窑衬节能技术与水泥熟料烧成系统优化技术,具有较高减排潜力和较低减排成本,适合广泛推广;CO₂捕集利用与封存（CCUS）技术虽具有较高减排成本,但是未来减排潜力较大,应给予重视。3）技术普及率与熟料产量是决定减排潜力的重要因素,因此未来水泥行业应注重节能减排政策技术推广与产业结构调整,可进一步实现减排目标。     

How China’s current energy pricing mechanisms will impact its marginal carbon abatement costs?

Economic and social costs and benefits are critical factors affecting greenhouse gas abatement activities. Recognizing that energy prices are one of the most important factors influencing abatement costs, this study improved the basic China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis (CEEPA) model by introducing a current energy pricing mechanism for China. The improved model was applied to generate marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for China including the current energy pricing mechanism and to analyze MACs for the whole country and main abatement sectors in China under different energy pricing mechanisms. The results show that China MACs are sensitive to pricing mechanisms for electricity and refined oil. Ignoring the current regulation of these prices will lead to MAC underestimation, and price liberalization of these two energy sources could lead to a decrease in China MACs. Under a 50 % emission reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is ignored, the China MAC is underestimated by almost 16 %. Energy pricing reforms will lead to variations in sectoral abatement costs and overall abatement potential, and these impacts are projected to be large in the electricity sector. Under a 50 % reduction target, if the electricity price regulation is liberalized, MAC for the electricity sector nearly will decrease 50 %.     

中国道路交通部门减排技术及成本研究

道路交通作为交通部门碳排放的重要来源,将在实现"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的过程中承担重任。碳减排技术成本的研究有利于平衡道路交通机动化发展和"碳达峰、碳中和"目标的实现,是实现道路交通可持续发展的重要措施。为此,基于乘用车、商用客车、轻型商用货车和重型商用货车等车型,结合发动机技术、变速器技术、辅助系统技术和整车技术和新能源车应用等16种关键节能减排技术的减排潜力和成本,建立了2020-2035年我国道路交通碳排放的边际减排成本（MAC）曲线,评估了通过推广车辆节能技术和新能源车等措施来实现减排目标的累积成本。主要得到以下结论:1）相同的车辆节能减排技术,应用在重型商用货车的单位减排成本远小于其他车型,新能源车在乘用车的应用具有很大的减排潜力,但是与其他车型相比并不具有成本优势。2）燃料电池新能源车的单位减排成本远高于纯电动和插电混合动力新能源车,未来需降低燃料电池的生产成本以及氢气的制备、储存和运输成本。3）2020-2035年的减排总成本曲线显示总减排成本先增加后下降的趋势,这表明随着节能减排技术的合理推广,该部门减排阻力在不断下降。     

中国钢铁行业CO2减排技术及成本研究

钢铁行业是我国主要的能源消费及CO₂排放行业,推动钢铁行业低碳绿色发展已成为实现我国碳达峰、碳中和的重要环节。为此,研究围绕能源结构调整、工艺结构优化、节能减排技术推广和CCUS技术应用4方面,通过设置基础情景、稳定发展情景和强化减排情景3类情景,利用边际减排成本曲线对我国钢铁行业34项减排技术的减排成本和减排潜力进行分析。结果表明:在稳定发展情景下,我国钢铁行业平均减排成本为433元/tCO₂,所有技术的总减排成本为2100亿元,总减排潜力为4.9亿t。在各项减排技术中,废铁-电弧炉炼钢具有较高的减排经济效益,其以较低的单位减排成本贡献了钢铁行业近50%的碳减排量。未来,我国应加快推进长流程炼钢向短流程炼钢的发展,推动钢铁行业生产工艺的结构性调整。     

Technology-side carbon abatement cost curves for China’s power generation sector

China is among the largest emitters of carbon dioxide (CO₂), worldwide Thus, its emissions mitigation is of global concern. The power generation sector is responsible for nearly half of China’s total CO₂ emissions and plays a key role in emissions mitigation. This study is an integrated evaluation of abatement technologies, including both low-carbon power generation technologies and retrofitting options for coal power plants. We draw marginal abatement cost curves for these technologies using the conservation supply curve method. Using scenario analysis for the years 2015 to 2030, we discuss the potential performance of abatement technologies. Marginal costs for the analyzed abatement technologies range from RMB ? 357.41/ton CO₂ to RMB 927.95/ton CO₂. Furthermore, their cumulative mitigation potential relative to the baseline scenario could reach 35 billion tons of CO₂ in 2015–2030, with low-carbon power generation technologies and coal power abatement technologies contributing 55% and 45% of the total mitigation, respectively. Our case study of China demonstrates the power generation sector’s great potential to mitigate global emissions, and we suggest nuclear power, hydropower, and the comprehensive retrofitting of coal power as key technology options for the low-carbon transition of the energy system and long-term emissions mitigation strategies.

     

基于边际治理成本的环境保护税税率标准探究与政策建议

税负水平是税收调节作用的重要因素,各地区需要科学地制定符合本地区发展水平的环境保护税税率来平衡环境保护与经济发展.基于2016年东北某省14个市的钢铁、电力、化工、水泥行业的排污及治理成本数据,建立污染削减费用函数模型,计算该省大气、水中主要污染物的边际治理成本,并设置不同环境保护税税率的情景方案,以探究环境保护税税率对该省经济发展的影响.结果表明:①SO₂、NO_x、COD、NH₃-N的边际治理成本分别为3.44、5.03、3.81、8.15元/污染当量. ②重点行业主要污染物的边际治理成本不同,钢铁行业主要污染物的边际治理成本较高,其COD、NH₃-N的边际治理成本均高于总体边际治理成本;化工行业的COD边际治理成本高于总体边际治理成本;电力行业的大气主要污染物边际治理成本高于总体边际治理成本;水泥行业的大气主要污染物边际治理成本则相对较低. ③适当提高环境保护税税率对经济发展总体影响不大.研究显示:该省的边际治理成本远高于目前的环境保护税征收标准,若以边际治理成本作为环境保护税税率,不但会增加企业负担,而且会导致不同行业的边际治理成本相差较大,因此,建议提高该省的环境保护税税率标准,即大气污染物征收标准为2.4元/污染当量,水污染物征收标准为2.8元/污染当量,并设置环境保护税税率的行业差异化,将有利于政策功能的发挥.      

The power and pain of market-based carbon policies: a global application to greenhouse gases from ruminant livestock production

The objectives of this research are to assess the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of carbon policies applied to the ruminant livestock sector [inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), and goats (Capra hircus)]—with particular emphasis on understanding the adjustment challenges posed by such policies. We show that market-based mitigation policies can greatly amplify the mitigation potential identified in marginal abatement cost studies by harnessing powerful market forces such as product substitution and trade. We estimate that a carbon tax of US$20 per metric ton of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions could mitigate 626 metric megatons of CO₂ equivalent ruminant emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq year^?1). This policy would also incentivize a restructuring of cattle production, increasing the share of cattle meat coming from the multiproduct dairy sector compared to more emission intensive, single purpose beef sector. The mitigation potential from this simple policy represents an upper bound because it causes ruminant-based food production to fall and is therefore likely to be politically unpopular. In the spirit of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015), which expresses the ambition of reducing agricultural emissions while protecting food production, we assess a carbon policy that applies both a carbon tax and a subsidy to producers to manage the tradeoff between food production and mitigation. The policy maintains ruminant production and consumption levels in all regions, but for a much lower global emission reduction of 185 MtCO₂-eq year^?1. This research provides policymakers with a quantitative basis for designing policies that attempt to trade off mitigation effectiveness with producer and consumer welfare.     

碳减排方案优化及其在产业升级中的效应研究

构建了包含能源消耗与碳排放的多行业动态一般均衡模型,研究发现,通过各行业的边际减排成本相等这一总体减排任务的合理分解方式,能够实现要素的优化配置并激发“创新补偿效应”,具有相对较高的增长效应与福利效应.分行业单独制定碳减排约束时的边际减排成本较高,且无法产生行业间减排的联动效应,因而总体减排方案是有效的.碳强度减排方案优化后,其在产业结构升级中的效应也十分明显.测算结果表明,碳减排对工业结构“重型化”的控制效应明显,还将农业减排的压力转化为“富碳农业”发展的动力,导致经济中农业占比上升.服务业企业通过增大劳动和资本等要素的投入替代产生高碳排放的能源要素,减缓碳减排政策对其生产行为的负向影响并实现了稳定增长.随着减排强度的加大,中国产业结构合理化和高度化程度得到了显著提升.     

CO2收集封存战略及其对我国远期减缓CO2排放的潜在作用

碳收集封存(CCS)已被广泛地认为是一种潜在的、可供选择的CO₂减排方案,以稳定大气中CO₂浓度、减缓气候变化.本文介绍了CCS的3大环节：碳的捕获、运输与储存,对不同捕获技术及其技术经济参数进行分析评价,介绍了不同碳地质储存的机理、潜力与成本, 以及CCS的应用对全球减缓碳排放的作用.更新中国MARKAL模型,加入各种可能的CCS技术,特别是考虑CCS的煤间接液化以及多联产技术,以同时考虑石油安全与CO₂减排.通过设置不同的情景,应用中国MARKAL模型研究了CCS对我国远期（到2050年）减缓CO₂排放的潜在作用,结果表明,CCS技术的应用不仅可能减少我国的碳排放,降低边际碳减排成本（碳减排率50%时,下降率达45%）,减轻高减排率时对核电的高度依赖,还可能使我国更长时间地清洁利用煤炭资源（在C70情景下,2050年煤在一次能源消费中的比例可从10%增到30%）.我国应重视对CCS技术的研发以及示范项目的建设.     

Climate change mitigation and international finance: the effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism and the Global Environment Facility in India and Brazil

This study analyzes the effectiveness and efficiency of the two principal United Nations (UN) climate change mitigation finance mechanisms, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The realised abatement and costs of the two mechanisms in India and Brazil (using data from 28 GEF and 233 CDM project documents) are compared with theoretical marginal abatement cost curves, based on bottom-up technology studies. We find that both mechanisms have focused on negative and low-cost abatement potential but still leave substantial theoretical potential in this cost range untapped. CDM has more effectively harvested abatement potential of industrial gases and methane emissions, whereas GEF has more successfully targeted demand-side energy efficiency (EE) and transport emission reduction opportunities. CDM has excelled at capturing abatement potential in areas with a limited understanding of abatement, highlighting the shortcomings of theoretical estimates (such as Marginal Abatement Cost Curves) and the benefits of a market mechanism. In some sectors and technologies (particularly renewable energy), the two mechanisms overlapped, which suggests a need for better coordination in the future.     

Brazil's Electric Power Choices and Their Corresponding Carbon Emissions Implications

This study analyzes the options for meeting power demand in the Brazilianpower sector through the year 2015. Three policy cases are constructedto test economic and environmental policy measures against a baseline:advanced technologies scenario, environmental control scenario and carbon(C) elimination scenario. Least-cost modeling simulated these scenarios throughchanges in emissions fees and caps, costs for advanced technologies,demand side efficiency, and clean energy supplies. Results show that, in theabsence of alternative policies, new additions to Brazil's electric powersector will shift rapidly from hydroelectricity to combined-cycle natural gasplants. When the cost of environmental impacts are incorporated in theprice of power, the least-cost mix of electric power generation technologycould change in other ways. In all scenarios, energy efficiency andcogeneration play an important role in the least-cost power solution. Savingelectricity through increased efficiency offsets the needs for new supply andhas enormous potential in Brazil's industrial sector. Efficiency also reducesthe environmental burden associated with electricity production andtransmission, without compromising the quality of the services demandedby end users. Interesting enough, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions will remainrelatively low under almost every conceivable scenario.     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.     

Meeting emission targets under uncertainty—the case of Finnish non-emission-trading sector

The European Union (EU) has set a target to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at least 10 % below the 2005 levels by 2020 in the non-Emission Trading Sector (non-ETS). As part of this, each Member State has a binding national emission limitation target for the non-ETS sector. Finland’s target, examined as a case study in this paper, is to reduce emissions at least 16 % below 2005 levels by 2020. The objective of this study is to find cost optimal mitigation portfolios that meet Finland’s reduction target and to analyze the risks of not attaining the emission target or exceeding the assumed costs. The question was addressed with a stochastic optimization model, Stochastic Optimization of non-ETS Emissions (SONETS) selecting separate mitigation measures that meet the target on expectation. The results show that optimal portfolios include relatively high uncertainty both in costs and achieved reductions. The prices of crude oil and diesel, and the abatement cost of reducing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions seem to account for the majority of uncertainty regarding total costs. The baseline predictions for various non-ETS subsectors (such as transport and agriculture) were found to have the greatest contribution to the uncertainty of attaining emission target. The results also show that some abatement actions are chosen in nearly all efficient portfolios, while other actions are seldom chosen. For example replacing oil burners in the end of technical life time or recovery of methane (CH₄) from waste are often chosen whereas ban of landfilling of organic waste is chosen extremely seldom. It also seems that the results are somewhat sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of the interdependencies of mitigation measures.     

初始排放权分配对各省区碳交易策略及其减排成本的影响分析

碳排放权分配是我国碳交易机制设计的根本性问题之一.然而,不同初始分配方案对我国碳减排和宏观经济的影响尚不明确,成为制约碳交易市场快速发展的重要因素.本文以我国"十三五"时期碳排放强度下降目标为约束构建非线性规划模型,模拟了"祖父分配方案"、"支付能力方案"和"人口规模方案"3种初始排放权分配方案对各省区碳交易策略及其减...     

Economic analysis of atmospheric mercury emission control for coal-fired power plants in China

Coal combustion and mercury pollution are closely linked, and this relationship is particularly relevant in China, the world's largest coal consumer. This paper begins with a summary of recent China-specific studies on mercury removal by air pollution control technologies and then provides an economic analysis of mercury abatement from these emission control technologies at coal-fired power plants in China. This includes a cost-effectiveness analysis at the enterprise and sector level in China using 2010 as a baseline and projecting out to 2020 and 2030. Of the control technologies evaluated, the most cost-effective is a fabric filter installed upstream of the wet flue gas desulfurization system (FF + WFGD). Halogen injection (HI) is also a cost-effective mercury-specific control strategy, although it has not yet reached commercial maturity. The sector-level analysis shows that 193 tons of mercury was removed in 2010 in China's coal-fired power sector, with annualized mercury emission control costs of 2.7 billion Chinese Yuan. Under a projected 2030 Emission Control (EC) scenario with stringent mercury limits compared to Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the increase of selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR) and the use of HI could contribute to 39 tons of mercury removal at a cost of 3.8 billion CNY. The economic analysis presented in this paper offers insights on air pollution control technologies and practices for enhancing atmospheric mercury control that can aid decision-making in policy design and private-sector investments.     

碳税对于发展非化石能源的作用 ——基于能源-环境-经济模型的分析

为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO₂碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、 居民收入、 削减影响较大行业的生产税、 以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO₂排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、 35.80%、 35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、 11.00%、 10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。     

基于公平与效率双重视角的中国农业碳减排潜力分析

科学估算减排潜力是实施减排责任分摊的基础。论文将环境因素纳入到经济生产体系,构建含有期望产出与非期望产出的农业经济核算框架,借助方向距离函数方法,对2000-2011 年中国31 个省(市、区)的农业碳边际减排成本进行估算。在此基础上,利用人均农业碳排放、人均农业生产总值、农业碳排放强度与农业碳排放影子价格4 个指标,构建农业碳减排潜力指数,基于公平与效率双重视角,对各省区农业碳减排潜力水平进行评估与分析。结果显示:① 农业减排成本地区差异较大。其中,海南、福建、山东、辽宁、广东、北京、天津等省区减排成本较高,其年均农业碳排放影子价格居于全国前列,最高值达2.542×10⁸元/10⁴ t;而西藏、青海两地农业碳排放影子价格最低,分别为0.105×10⁸元/10⁴ t 和0.542×10⁸元/10⁴ t,农业减排成本较低。② 基于农业碳减排的公平性与效率性差异,将中国大陆31 个省级行政区域划分为四大类:西藏等1 省2 区属于“高效较公平”型地区;甘肃1 省1 区属于“高效欠公平”型地区;辽宁等8省2 区属于“低效较公平”型地区;北京等12 省4 市属于“低效欠公平”型地区。③ 西藏、海南、青海、内蒙古四地农业碳减排潜力指数在三种情景下均排名前四,北京、黑龙江、山西三地均排名最后。④ 决策者对于公平原则与效率原则的不同偏好会导致各省区减排责任分摊机制不同。     

Long-term reductions in costs of controlling regional air pollution in Europe due to climate policy

This paper examines to what extent climate change policies will alter the effectiveness of agreed-upon or future policies to reduce regional air pollution in Europe and vice versa. And when is it cost-effective to combat regional air pollution with clean technology instead of add-on technology?For this exercise, several extensions were made to the energy model TIMER, to introduce add-on abatement technologies, specified in terms of costs and reduction potentials, in order to be able to calculate cost-effective emission reduction strategies for different scenarios and regions.The results show that add-on technologies to reduce regional air pollution remain necessary throughout the century. The costs to reach the NO_x emission reduction targets in Europe are about three times as high as for SO₂. Mitigation costs averaged over the century by add-on technologies can be reduced by climate measures by 50–70% for SO₂ and around 50% for NO_x. The costs of SO₂ and NO_x mitigation by add-on technology in a world without climate policy are comparable or in some periods even higher than the costs of an integrated mitigation of SO₂, NO_x and CO₂ emissions if a reduction of specific costs by learning is, in contrast with energy technologies, not assumed for abatement technologies. So, the costs of SO₂ and NO_x add-on measures avoided by climate policies can outweigh the costs of these climate measures. The total annual costs are in the order of 1 or 2% of the present GDP, depending on the scenario.