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1.
Development of regional climate mitigation baseline for a dominant agro-ecological zone of Karnataka,India 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
P. Sudha D. Subhashree H. Khan G. T. Hedge I. K. Murthy V. Shreedhara N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(6):1051-1075
Setting a baseline for carbon stock changes in forest and land use sector mitigation projects is an essential step for assessing
additionality of the project. There are two approaches for setting baselines namely, project-specific and regional baseline.
This paper presents the methodology adopted for estimating the land available for mitigation, for developing a regional baseline,
transaction cost involved and a comparison of project-specific and regional baseline. The study showed that it is possible
to estimate the potential land and its suitability for afforestation and reforestation mitigation projects, using existing
maps and data, in the dry zone of Karnataka, southern India. The study adopted a three-step approach for developing a regional
baseline, namely: (i) identification of likely baseline options for land use, (ii) estimation of baseline rates of land-use
change, and (iii) quantification of baseline carbon profile over time. The analysis showed that carbon stock estimates made
for wastelands and fallow lands for project-specific as well as the regional baseline are comparable. The ratio of wasteland
Carbon stocks of a project to regional baseline is 1.02, and that of fallow lands in the project to regional baseline is 0.97.
The cost of conducting field studies for determination of regional baseline is about a quarter of the cost of developing a
project-specific baseline on a per hectare basis. The study has shown the reliability, feasibility and cost-effectiveness
of adopting regional baseline for forestry sector mitigation projects.
相似文献
N. H. RavindranathEmail: |
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利用2013~2015年水稻生长季期间气象因子、O3浓度和气孔导度的实测数据,分析了O3浓度与AOT40的变化,引入并修订了水稻气孔导度模型,模拟了水稻气孔O3吸收通量的动态变化,评估了当前和未来气候变化情景下O3污染所造成的水稻产量损失.结果表明:2013~2015年水稻生长季期间的白天时段,平均O3浓度分别为35.8,42.0,47.9nL/L,AOT40值分别为5.33,9.03,11.25μL/(L·h).修订后的模型可用于本地区水稻气孔导度的模拟,2013~2015年水稻气孔O3通量AFst02分别为2.02,6.42,7.79mmol/m2.2013~2015年地表O3造成水稻平均相对产量损失分别为4.9%、11.7%和14.3%.在未来气候变化情景下若不考虑O3浓度的变化,O3对水稻的胁迫效应将会降低,若考虑未来O3浓度的变化,O3造成水稻产量的损失将增加4.7~5.7%. 相似文献
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Asbj?rn Torvanger Steffen Kallbekken Petter Tollefsen 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2012,17(7):753-768
The stringency of policies needed to meet a climate target is influenced by uncertain oil prices because price changes cause emission changes, making the robustness of climate policy instruments important. As a result of its dependence on oil, emissions from the transport sector are particularly sensitive to oil price changes. We use a computable general equilibrium model to study the effects of including the transport sector in the EU??s emissions trading scheme under three future oil price scenarios. Our results show that there are potentially significant welfare gains from including transportation in the emissions trading scheme because the system as a whole helps absorb required changes in climate policy to meet the overall EU cap on emissions. There is, however, a cost in terms of somewhat greater permit price uncertainty. 相似文献
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考虑未来多种污染物排污收费情景及区域电力需求的固有随机特性,建立了2阶段电源规划优化模型,分析了不同排污收费情景、不同电力需求水平下的区域电力结构变化以及污染物和CO2减排策略.在同时征收SO2排污费和CO2排放费的情景(情景3)下,清洁能源发电在发电系统中的比重增加,以煤电为主的火电比重下降;系统减排CO2 8.438′106t,同时协同减排SO2 5202t、NOx 7854t、颗粒物17.42t,但系统费用会显著增加.在同时征收SO2、NOx排污费和CO2排放费的情景下,系统减排SO2 8515t、NOx 13878t、颗粒物23.52t、CO2 12.988′106t,同时系统费用也会进一步增加.在目前征收SO2排污费的基础上征收CO2排放费或同时征收NOx排放费和CO2排放费,可以提高清洁发电方式在发电系统中的比重,降低SO2、NOx和CO2的排放量. 相似文献
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Susanna Reid Barry Smit Wayne Caldwell Suzanne Belliveau 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(4):609-637
A vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation
to climatic variability and change. The methodological approach focuses on the system of concern, in this case, farms in Perth
County, Ontario. Twenty-five interviews and four focus groups with farmers were used to identify climate risks on farms, and
to document farmers’ responses to conditions and risks associated with climate and weather. The information collected describes
a complex decision-making environment, with many forces both external and internal to the farm operation influencing management
decisions. Within this environment, climate and weather are consistently referred to as a significant force influencing both
farm operations and management decisions. Farmers have, however, developed a wide-range of anticipatory and reactive management
strategies to manage climate risks. While these have potential to address future climate-related risks and opportunities,
there are limits to adaptation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events may exceed their adaptive capacities. Farmers
are also generally unaware and/or unconcerned about future climate change, which could constrain opportunities to adopt long-term
climate change adaptations. 相似文献
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Jolène Labbé James D Ford Lea Berrang-Ford Blanaid Donnelly Shuaib Lwasa Didacus Bambaiha Namanya Sabastian Twesigomwe IHACC Research Team Sherilee L Harper 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2016,21(6):931-953
Vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change will be shaped by the existing burden of ill- health and is expected to be highest in poor and socio-economically marginalized populations. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, is considered a highly vulnerable region. This paper analyses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural Bakiga communities in southwestern Uganda to climate-sensitive health risks. The objectives were threefold: i) identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health priorities; ii) describe and characterize determinants of sensitivity to these health priorities at the individual, community and regional levels; and iii) assess the adaptive capacity of Bakiga. Data collection employed a combination of individual and key informant interviews, biographies, future storylines, and Photovoice. Three key health risks were identified by the study communities (malaria, food insecurity, and gastrointestinal illnesses) – all affected by local climatic and environmental conditions, livelihoods, land use changes, and socio-economic conditions. Adaptation within these communities is dependent on their capacity to reduce sensitivities to identified health challenges among the potential of increasing exposures. Crop diversification, reducing deforestation, expanding of livestock rearing, transfer of traditional knowledge, and access to affordable health services are among potential strategies identified. We demonstrate significant existing vulnerabilities to present day climate-related health risks and highlight the importance of non-climatic processes and local conditions in creating sensitivity to health risks. Our place-based understanding is useful to inform interventions or policies aimed to reduce exposure and sensitivity and support adaptive capacity as the conditions these communities face are consistent with many other sub-Saharan African countries. 相似文献
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Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS. 相似文献
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基于SWAT模型的黑河流域不同土地利用情景的非点源污染研究 总被引:23,自引:1,他引:22
以卫星遥感影像为基础,运用GIS与环境模型(SWAT2000)相结合的技术手段和景观生态学的研究方法,探讨了黑河流域土地利用与非点源污染的关系;从土地利用恶化与改善出发,对模型进行水量、泥沙和营养负荷部分的参数率定和验证并分析其在黑河流域的适用性,在此基础上通过对不同土地利用情景下非点源污染负荷的定量化分析,研究了土地利用/土地覆被变化对黑河流域非点源污染的影响过程.结果表明,随着流域林地面积的增加,流域径流深逐渐减少,水土流失量逐渐减少.从而使得流域产沙量也相应减少.林地的非点源污染单位负荷为:氮0.67kg·hm-2·a-1,磷0.11 kg·hm-2·a-1;耕地的单位负荷为:氮8.85 kg·hm-2·a-1,磷4.2kg·hm-2·a-1;当流域全部为林地时.总氮与总磷的负荷量分别为99.001t和17.145t.在2000年土地利用情景下总氮与总磷的负荷量分别为173.334t和38.653t;随着对植被的破坏,即土地恶化,会导致流域非点源污染的急剧增加;反之,随着退耕还林、水源涵养林保护工程的实施,流域水环境会得到极大的改善. 相似文献
11.
Assessment of future scenarios of climate and land-use changes in the IMPRINTS test-bed areas 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. Cabello M. Velasco J.I. Barredo R.T.W.L. Hurkmans A. Barrera-Escoda D. Sempere-Torres D. Velasco 《Environmental Science & Policy》2011,14(7):884-897
The main objective of this work is to identify and evaluate the potential impacts produced by climate and land-use changes in six European test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d’Anduze, Linth, Verzasca and Sambuco). Data to build future scenarios that can modify the different basins’ flash flood and debris flow risk level has been analyzed in this paper. High resolution climate scenarios have been obtained from several European projects and/or National initiatives, depending on each case. Climatic variables have been widely analyzed, with a special focus on extreme precipitation. Typical generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions have been fitted to observed and projected rainfall data to assess impacts in the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall up to 2100. Regarding climate, the main conclusion is the importance of using data at the maximum spatial and temporal resolution applying downscaling methodologies adapted to basin scale (test-bed areas ranging from approx 200 to 5000 km2) and oriented to obtain extreme rainfall values.In general, high variability has been detected, obtaining very different results for the different models and scenarios. Data corrections may lead to better representations of present situations and, therefore, more reliable future projections, but currently some of them are not suitable for extreme precipitation assessment.Regarding land-use changes, a cellular automata-based model has been used (MOLAND) to simulate the 2000–2040 period taking the CORINE land-use dataset as input data. Llobregat, Guadalhorce and Gardon d’Anduze basins have been identified as potentially interesting for simulating urban land-use dynamics due to the existence of important urban areas within their limits. The assessment of the rural land-use changes has been carried out using the results from the EURURALIS project (2000–2030 period), available for all the basins.The results of this paper are framed in the FP7 project IMPRINTS that has the aim of analyzing impacts of future changes to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures and, in general, to improve the application of the EC Flood Risk Management Directive. 相似文献
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Amit Kumar Srivastava Thomas Gaiser Frank Ewert 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2016,21(6):955-968
Globally, yam (Dioscorea spp.) is the fifth most important root crop after sweet potatoes (Ipomoea batatas L.) and the second most important crop in Africa in terms of production after cassava (Manihot esculenta L.) and has long been vital to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Climate change is expected to have its most severe impact on crops in food insecure regions, yet very little is known about impact of climate change on yam productivity. Therefore, we try estimating the effect of climate change on the yam (variety: Florido) yield and evaluating different adaptation strategies to mitigate its effect. Three regional climate models REgional MOdel (REMO), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Regional Climate Model (SMHIRCA), and Hadley Regional Model (HADRM3P) were coupled to a crop growth simulation model namely Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) version 3060 to simulate current and future yam yields in the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin Republic). For the future, substantial yield decreases were estimated varying according to the climate scenario. We explored the advantages of specific adaptation strategies suggesting that changing sowing date may be ineffective in counteracting adverse climatic effects. Late maturing cultivars could be effective in offsetting the adverse impacts. Whereas, by coupling irrigation and fertilizer application with late maturing cultivars, highest increase in the yam productivity could be realized which accounted up to 49 % depending upon the projection of the scenarios analyzed. 相似文献
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Frederick A. Armah Justice O. Odoi Genesis T. Yengoh Samuel Obiri David O. Yawson Ernest K. A. Afrifa 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2011,16(3):291-306
Desertification, climate variability and food security are closely linked through drought, land cover changes, and climate
and biological feedbacks. In Ghana, only few studies have documented these linkages. To establish this link the study provides
historical and predicted climatic changes for two drought sensitive agro-ecological zones in Ghana and further determines
how these changes have influenced crop production within the two zones. This objective was attained via Markov chain and Fuzzy
modelling. Results from the Markov chain model point to the fact that the Guinea savanna agro-ecological zone has experienced
delayed rains from 1960 to 2008 while the Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone had slightly earlier rains for the same period.
Results of Fuzzy Modelling indicate that very suitable and moderately suitable croplands for millet and sorghum production
are evenly distributed within the two agro-ecological zones. For Ghana to adapt to climate change and thereby achieve food
security, it is important to pursue strategies such as expansion of irrigated agricultural areas, improvement of crop water
productivity in rain-fed agriculture, crop improvement and specialisation, and improvement in indigenous technology. It is
also important to encourage farmers in the Sudan and Guinea Savanna zones to focus on the production of cereals and legumes
(e.g. sorghum, millet and soybeans) as the edaphic and climatic factors favour these crops and will give the farmers a competitive
advantage. It may be necessary to consider the development of the study area as the main production and supply source of selected
cereals and legumes for the entire country in order to free lands in other regions for the production of crops highly suitable
for those regions on the basis of their edaphic and climatic conditions. 相似文献
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HYDRUS-1D模型对河套灌区不同灌施情景下氮素迁移的模拟 总被引:7,自引:1,他引:7
选取河套灌区五原建丰的典型土壤,应用HYDBUS-1D 模型对不同灌溉强度、不同表施浓度以及将表施改为灌施3类情景下土壤氮元素的迁移进行了动态模拟,研究了灌溉和施肥对河套灌区典型区域土壤氮元素迁移的影响.结果表明,灌水强度小于0.10 cm·h-1时,铵态氮与硝态氨累积流出通量变化极为缓慢;强度大于 0.14 cm·h-1时,累积流出通量急剧攀升,表明氮元素大量向土层深层流失.铵态氮表施浓度的变化对氮素的迁移几乎没有影响.保持相同的施肥量,灌施情景对铵态氮迁移几乎无影响,但表施换为灌施后硝态氮下渗浓度增加47%,更易于向深层渗漏. 相似文献
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《Environmental Science & Policy》2002,5(4):273-305
The aim of this study was to develop consistent scenarios of emissions, climate change and regional air pollution to enable an integrated analysis of the linkage between climate change and regional air pollution in Europe. An integrated modeling framework was developed for this purpose. The framework integrates state-of-the-art models and concepts from the area of climate change and regional air pollution and was supplemented by new modules (e.g. modeling long-term NH3 emissions in Europe, modeling dispersion and transformation of air pollutants under climate change).Consistent climate and air pollution policies were derived, both driven by the desire to achieve certain environmental goals. According to an analysis of scenarios with various combinations of climate and regional air pollution policies the quantitatively most relevant interactions are the effect of climate change policies on the energy mix and the resulting air pollution emissions. In the long-term the global SO2 emissions are expected to decrease (again), accordingly their effect on climate will be minor. Tentatively it can be concluded that for regional air pollution the development of the air pollutant emissions is more important than the effect of climate change on the dispersion and chemical transformation of air pollutants. 相似文献
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Keii Gi Fuminori Sano Ayami Hayashi Toshimasa Tomoda Keigo Akimoto 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2018,23(1):51-79
Climate change and energy service demand exert influence on each other through temperature change and greenhouse gas emissions. We have consistently evaluated global residential thermal demand and energy consumption up to the year 2050 under different climate change scenarios. We first constructed energy service demand intensity (energy service demand per household) functions for each of three services (space heating, space cooling, and water heating). The space heating and cooling demand in 2050 in the world as a whole become 2.1–2.3 and 3.8–4.5 times higher than the figures for 2010, whose ranges are originated from different global warming scenarios. Cost-effective residential energy consumption to satisfy service demand until 2050 was analyzed keeping consistency among different socio-economic conditions, ambient temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission pathways using a global energy assessment model. Building shell improvement and fuel fuel-type transition reduce global final energy consumption for residential thermal heating by 30% in 2050 for a 2 °C target scenario. This study demonstrates that climate change affects residential space heating and cooling demand by regions, and their desirable strategies for cost-effective energy consumption depend on the global perspectives on CO2 emission reduction. Building shell improvement and energy efficiency improvement and fuel fuel-type transition of end-use technologies are considered to be robust measures for residential thermal demand under uncertain future CO2 emission pathways. 相似文献
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Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in the United States Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Kristin Byrd Jamie Ratliff Norman Bliss Anne Wein Ben Sleeter Terry Sohl Zhengpeng Li 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2015,20(3):439-465
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Spatiotemporal variations of nitrate sources and dynamics in a typical agricultural riverine system under monsoon climate 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Hao Jiang Wenjing Liu Jiangyi Zhang Li Zhou Xiaode Zhou Ke Pan Tong Zhao Yuchen Wang Zhifang Xu 《环境科学学报(英文版)》2020,32(7):98-108
Nitrogen pollution is a serious environmental issue in the Danjiangkou Reservoir region(DRR),the water source of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China.In this research,seasonal surveys and a bi-weekly time series survey were conducted in the Qihe River Basin,one of the most densely populated agricultural basins in the DRR.Hydrochemical compositions (NO3Cl),dual isotopes (δD-H2O,δ18O-H2O,δ15N-NO3-,and δ 相似文献