Carbon emission efficiency of thermal power in different regions of China and spatial correlations

In China, the power industry contributes significantly to carbon emissions, reducing carbon emissions in this industry is conducive to China's adaptation and mitigation of climate change. Researches on green and low-carbon power have attracted increasing attention. In this paper, we analyze and compare the carbon emissions from thermal power sector in 30 Chinese provinces, divided into three main regions. Based on the panel data over the period 2002–2016, we use a slacks-based measurement (SBM) model to measure the carbon emission efficiency of China’s power sector. The results show that the carbon emission efficiency of the system is relatively low, with marked differences among regions. Based on the Moran’s I, we further found spatial heterogeneity in carbon emission efficiency of provincial power sector. Policies for adaptation and mitigation of climate change should have regional differences. Interregional collaboration also plays a key role in adapting to and mitigating climate change. For China, it is an important issue to develop clean coal-fired power generation and vigorously develop renewable energy. From a global perspective, energy transformation needs to be continuously promoted. Promoting low-carbon transformation of global energy system requires deep technical cooperation and synergy. Global mitigation strategy should focus on the orientation of structural reform and constantly optimize the energy structure.

     

Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes

Many studies have been published to evaluate the consequences of different post-2012 emission allocation regimes on regional mitigation costs. This paper goes one step further and evaluates not only mitigation costs, but also adaptation costs and climate change damages. Three post-2012 emission allocation regimes (Contraction & Convergence, Multistage and Common but differentiated convergence) and two climate targets (2°C and 3°C above the pre-industrial level) are considered. This explorative analysis shows that including these other cost categories could lead to different perspectives on the outcomes of allocation regimes. Up to 2050, the poorest regions have negative mitigation costs under all allocation regimes considered, as they benefit from emission trading. However, these regions also suffer from the most severe climate impacts. As such, the financial flows due to emission trading from developed to developing countries created under these allocation regimes could also be interpreted as compensation of climate change damages and adaptation costs. In the longer run, the sum of climate change damages, adaptation costs and mitigation costs are the highest in the poorest regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, for both climate targets and practically all emission allocation regimes.     

影响中国碳排放绩效的区域特征研究——基于熵值法的聚类分析

论文选择影响碳排放绩效的主要指标,基于熵值法确定各指标权重,采用系统聚类分析的方法,以中国省域为研究对象,将全国分为7类区域。分析结果显示:区域分工特征是造成目前中国省级碳排放绩效区域差异的主要影响因素,其次是高碳产业工艺特征和能源结构特征,而经济结构对解释省级碳排放绩效区域差异的贡献有限。北方地区高碳产品生产份额高且工艺水平相对低,能源消费中极高的煤炭比例加重了负面影响,造成其二氧化碳排放绩效水平低,特别是华北地区;近年来东南沿海地区高碳产业也逐步增加,但由于其工艺先进,在一定程度上抵消了高碳产品份额高的负面影响;中西部地区目前高碳产品份额虽然低于东部地区,但工艺水平也低,造成了其低水平的二氧化碳排放绩效。由于各省历史发展、自然资源禀赋、区域分工角色等因素不同,且遵从经济宏观发展客观规律和经济区位理论,除了少数发达地区之外,中国其他区域短时间内很难改变其经济和能源结构,低碳政策制定的重点应放在提高高碳产业工艺水平方面。     

Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs

In this study, we incorporate a three-reservoir climate module into our energy-economy-environmental integrated (3E-integrated) system model, in order to estimate the effect of China’s contribution of unilateral emissions on global warming and to weigh the macro-mitigation cost against the risk of damage, and we also explore the role of adaptation in reducing climate change risk. Our results suggest that China’s unilateral emission-control action plays a relatively limited role in mitigating global warming and is not particularly cost-effective, given that the macro-reduction cost is much larger than the benefit in the corresponding climate damage mitigation. Adaptation plays a large role in curbing China’s climate damages and improving the economics of China’s unilateral emission-control actions, and it is little affected by the introduction and option mitigation strategies. To prevent global warming from exceeding critical thresholds, more international collaborations and cooperative efforts are therefore anxiously needed; as for China, bolstering a low-carbon economy and installing an effective mechanism for improving the adaptation level are two feasible options for controlling climate damage risks, given the great uncertainty on the present situation of international cooperation mitigation.     

美欧中印“国家自主贡献”目标的力度和公平性评估

基于气候公平的不同原则,采用动态的衡量指标,建立了公平分配未来碳排放空间的综合性框架,计算了基数、平等、能力、责任和混合方案下2010~2100年全球累积碳排放配额的地区分布,并评估了美欧中印“国家自主贡献（Intended Nationally Determined Contribution,INDC）”目标的力度,提出了各国减排目标力度应当增加的程度.结果表明：美欧中印总体的INDC力度离实现2℃目标仍有差距,不同方案下的排放差距为8.0~9.6Gt CO₂,超出2030年2℃目标下全球排放的比例为20%~24%.在各自最为有利的方案下,中印能满足实现2℃目标的公平分配方案的低限要求.而在所有方案下美欧距离实现2℃目标的公平分配要求均有差距,需要进一步提高力度.公平指标的动态和静态衡量方法,以及历史责任计量起始年的选取,对公平分配的结果影响很大.     

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed.     

Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees

Significant international collaboration is required to limit global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Equity is the foundation of cooperation, and therefore, this study proposed a new dynamic carbon permit allocation scheme based on four principles: equality, historical responsibility, capability, and future development opportunities. Decision makers could have different preferences for allocating carbon permits, therefore, four equity rules or indicators (equality, responsibility, capacity, and sovereignty) were assigned different weights. Based on the global carbon budget of the 2 °C target, emission permits were calculated and relevant economic implications analyzed using the Global Change Assessment Model. Results indicated that developed countries should reduce emissions immediately, while allowances for developing regions could permit an initial increase in emissions until peaking. Applying different weights to the indicators resulted in multifarious regional allowances. Developed regions would benefit from the “preferring sovereignty” scenario and most developing countries would benefit under the “preferring responsibility” and “preferring capacity” scenarios. Compared with the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, this study found that in the short term, developed countries might insist on sovereignty as the preferred indicator. However, preferring sovereignty would place substantial mitigation pressures on developing countries in the long term. Therefore, in addressing global climate change, a dynamic choice in the weighting distribution for different indicators might be conducive to international agreement. Furthermore, a market-based trading instrument could help all participants both mitigate global climate change by reducing regional and global costs and facilitate mitigation capital flow from developed to less developed regions.     

气候变化对我国干旱区分布及其范围的潜在影响

为确定气候变化对土地荒漠化影响,以干燥度指数及A1,A2,B1和B2气候变化情景分析了气候变化对我国干旱区分布范围的影响. 模拟结果表明:气候变化将导致我国极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围缩小,干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围扩大. 极端干旱区分布范围缩小并被干旱区所代替,半干旱区向半湿润区东、南部方向扩展,湿润区东北部和西部被半干旱和半湿润区所代替. 极端干旱区和湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈负相关性,干旱区、半干旱区和半湿润区分布范围变化与全国年均气温增量呈正相关性. 多元回归分析表明,干旱区和极端干旱区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而减少;半湿润区和湿润区分布范围随全国年降水量增加而增加;除A1情景外,其他气候情景下半干旱区分布范围均随全国年降水量增加而减少;湿润区分布范围随全国年均气温增加而减少,其他气候区范围随全国年均气温升高而增加. 随着气候变化,我国荒漠化范围将增加,干旱胁迫总体上减弱.      

中国北方农牧交错带气候变化特点及未来趋势——基于观测和模拟资料的综合分析

中国北方农牧交错带是中国生态文明建设的一个重点地区。准确评估其气候变化趋势对于该区域可持续发展至关重要。本文的研究目的是在揭示1971-2015年气候变化特征的基础上,分析区域2006-2050年气候变化趋势。为此,本文综合观测和模拟数据分析了区域1971-2015年的历史气候变化以及2006-2050年的未来气候变化。研究发现：1971-2015年,中国北方农牧交错带气候变化呈暖干化趋势,年均气温的增长速率为0.39 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为-4.60 mm/10 a。2006-2050年,区域气候变化将呈暖湿化趋势,区域总体年均气温的增长速率为0.20~0.50 ℃/10 a,年降水量的变化速率为1.49~15.59 mm/10 a。同时,如果不有效控制温室气体排放,区域气候系统的不稳定性将加剧。2006-2050年,随着温室气体排放浓度的不断增加,区域增温速率从0.25 ℃/10 a增长至0.48 ℃/10 a,降水变化速率从3.97 mm/10 a增长至14.58 mm/10 a。因此,需要高度重视中国北方农牧交错带气候变化的减缓和适应问题,以促进该区域的可持续发展。     

空间视角下湖北省环境绩效评估及影响因素分析

以湖北省为例，基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型构建环境绩效评估指标体系，运用空间自相关和标准差椭圆对湖北省各地区绩效指数空间特征及影响因素进行探讨，结果显示：湖北省各地区环境绩效指数（EPI）均高于60，但普遍处于中等水平，良好及优秀所占比例低.EPI较高的地区主要位于湖北省西部和中部，压力和状态指数从西至东递减，响应指数则呈现东部高于西部高于中部的态势.状态指标绩效指数在空间上显著正相关，即环境质量状况较好（或较差）的地区在空间上集聚.EPI及二级指标绩效指数均以西北-东南为布局方向，且EPI椭圆重心较于基准重心偏向于西南方向.各地区环境指数除受到资源禀赋的影响外，还与城镇化率和人口密度显著相关.     

Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation—conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing countries

This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established.     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

中国阿牙克库木湖水量变化及其驱动机制

融合卫星雷达测高（T/P、RA-2和Hydroweb）与光学遥感数据分析了一个长时间序列的阿牙克库木湖水位及面积变化趋势,并基于NDSI和监督分类的方法提取了湖泊补给冰川的面积。结果表明：阿牙克库木湖在监测期内逐年扩大,面积由1995年的624 km²逐年扩张到2015年的995 km²,在此期间水位总共上升了5 m。气温升高导致补给冰川持续消融,冰川面积由1994年的361.27 km²退缩到2016年的345.26 km²。区域气候的暖湿化是1995-2015年阿牙克库木湖水量增加的主要背景,流域降水量的增加对湖泊水位上升产生直接驱动,持续升高的气温导致的补给冰川消融对湖泊扩张具有重要的促进作用。此外,最大可能蒸散、高海拔降水（雪）、冻土融化等因素也对湖泊的扩张产生重要影响。总之,准确掌握阿牙克库木湖的水量及其对气候变化的响应,对深刻理解青藏高原北部边缘的水资源平衡研究具有重要意义。     

中国区域能源效率时空演进格局及其影响因素分析

将化石能源消费中产生的环境影响作为投入要素引入到全要素能源效率(Total-Factor En-ergy Efficiency,TFEE)的研究之中,是不断完善能效评价的重要途径。论文基于数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA),选取煤炭、原油、天然气、电力及燃料燃烧工业废气排放量作为投入变量,真实GDP(不变价)作为单一产出变量,借助于GIS空间分析技术,刻画了1997—2007年来中国区域全要素能源效率的时空演进格局。在此基础上,论文利用1998—2007年中国省际面板数据,通过建立TFEE固定影响模型进一步解析了中国区域TFEE的影响因素及其内在作用机理。研究表明:①中国区域TFEE整体水平不断改进,但区间差异持续扩大,区域分异态势显著;②中国TFEE高效区空间分布从南部沿海"线"状向南部片区"面"状格局演进;③全国层面上看,技术进步、经济开放性及能源消费结构与TFEE存在显著正相关关系,而产业结构、市场化水平及能源资源禀赋则与之存在显著负相关关系;④区域层面上看,技术进步成为各区域改进TFEE最为关键的一环,与TFEE存在显著正相关关系,而产业结构及市场化水平对绝大多数区域TFEE存在显著影响。     

Vulnerability of agro-ecological zones in India under the earth system climate model scenarios

India being a developing economy dependent on climate-sensitive sector like agriculture is highly vulnerable to impacts of global climate change. Vulnerability to climate change, however, differs spatially within the country owing to regional differences in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The study uses the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System (HadGEM-ES) climate projections to assess the dynamics in vulnerability across four climate change exposure scenarios developed using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The analysis was carried out at subnational (district) level; the results were interpreted and reported for their corresponding agro-ecological zones. Vulnerability of each district was quantified using indicators capturing climatic variability, ecological and demographic sensitivity, and socio-economic capacity. Our analysis further assigns probabilities to vulnerability classes of all the 579 districts falling under different agro-ecological zones. The results of the vulnerability profile show that Western plains, Northern plains, and central highlands of the arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zones are the most vulnerable regions in the current scenario (1950–2000). In the future scenario (2050), it extends along districts falling within Deccan plateau and Central (Malwa) highlands, lying in the arid and semi-arid zones, along with regions vulnerable in the current scenario, recording the highest vulnerability score across all exposure scenarios. These regions exhibit highest degree of variation in climatic parameters, ecological fragility, socio-economic marginality, and limited accessibility to resources, generating conditions of high vulnerability. The study emphasizes on the priority to take up adaptive management actions in the identified vulnerable districts to not only reduce risks of climate change, but also enhance their inherent capacity to withstand any future changes in climate. It provides a systematic approach to explicitly identify vulnerable regions, where regional planners and policy makers can build on existing adaptation decision-making by utilizing an interdisciplinary approach in the context of global change scenario.     

中国石油资源利用的区域经济效应差异分析

效率导向的石油资源利用布局使我国的原油生产格局与加工利用格局之间形成显著错位。鉴于石油资源利用的根本目的应是促进区域社会经济全面发展,而不是单纯追求资源的利用效率,因此,论文基于区域投入产出表,构建增加值拉动乘数和增加值推动乘数两个投入产出系数,测算并对比了我国不同区域石油资源利用的区域综合经济效应,指出：1）我国石油资源利用的区域经济效应分异小于其直接经济效应分异,表明各区域的石油资源利用均通过区内产业链传导,促进了区域经济的整体发展;2）区域的资源禀赋、经济技术水平和产业结构特征之间的相互作用是影响我国石油资源利用的区域经济效应分异的主要因素;总体而言,资源型和精加工型产业结构在实现石油资源利用的区域经济效应方面各具优势,甚至在一定程度上存在区域经济效应的“资源地优胜”现象;3）未来我国应进一步完善石油资源的东、中、西分区配置格局,强化石油资源利用能力和水平在三大地带间的“U”型分布态势,重点在主要石油资源地和进口地加强石油炼化发展,发挥井口和口岸的资源、产业优势;以其为中心,石油资源的利用规模和能力应大体上沿主要石油运输通道向外逐层递减,以控制资源流动成本。     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin,China

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO₂ concentration, a CO₂ fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.     

区域生态环境变化的遥感评价指数

基于遥感信息技术提出一个新型的遥感生态指数(RSEI),以快速监测与评价区域生态质量.该指数耦合了植被指数、湿度分量、地表温度和土壤指数等4个评价指标,分别代表了绿度、湿度、热度和干度等4大生态要素.与常用的多指标加权集成法不同的是,本研究提出用主成分变换来集成各个指标,各指标对RSEI的影响是根据其数据本身的性质来决定,而不是由人为的加权来决定.因此,指标的集成更为客观合理.将RSEI应用于福建长汀水土流失区,并与国家环境保护部《生态环境状况评价技术规范》中的生态指数EI的计算结果相比较,发现二者的结果具有可比性.不同的是,RSEI不仅可以作为一个量化指标,而且还可以对区域生态环境变化进行可视化、时空分析、建模和预测.因此,可弥补EI指数在这些方面的不足.     

The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: a regional response from North Central Victoria,Australia

This two-part paper considers the complementarity between adaptation and mitigation in managing the risks associated with the enhanced greenhouse effect. Part one reviews the application of risk management methods to climate change assessments. Formal investigations of the enhanced greenhouse effect have produced three generations of risk assessment. The first led to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), First Assessment Report and subsequent drafting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The second investigated the impacts of unmitigated climate change in the Second and Third IPCC Assessment Reports. The third generation, currently underway, is investigating how risk management options can be prioritised and implemented. Mitigation and adaptation have two main areas of complementarity. Firstly, they each manage different components of future climate-related risk. Mitigation reduces the number and magnitude of potential climate hazards, reducing the most severe changes first. Adaptation increases the ability to cope with climate hazards by reducing system sensitivity or by reducing the consequent level of harm. Secondly, they manage risks at different extremes of the potential range of future climate change. Adaptation works best with changes of lesser magnitude at the lower end of the potential range. Where there is sufficient adaptive capacity, adaptation improves the ability of a system to cope with increasingly larger changes over time. By moving from uncontrolled emissions towards stabilisation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mitigation limits the upper part of the range. Different activities have various blends of adaptive and mitigative capacity. In some cases, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity may lead to large residual climate risks; in other cases, a large adaptive capacity may mean that residual risks are small or non-existent. Mitigative and adaptive capacity do not share the same scale: adaptive capacity is expressed locally, whereas mitigative capacity is different for each activity and location but needs to be aggregated at the global scale to properly assess its potential benefits in reducing climate hazards. This can be seen as a demand for mitigation, which can be exercised at the local scale through exercising mitigative capacity. Part two of the paper deals with the situation where regional bodies aim to maximise the benefits of managing climate risks by integrating adaptation and mitigation measures at their various scales of operation. In north central Victoria, Australia, adaptation and mitigation are being jointly managed by a greenhouse consortium and a catchment management authority. Several related studies investigating large-scale revegetation are used to show how climate change impacts and sequestration measures affect soil, salt and carbon fluxes in the landscape. These studies show that trade-offs between these interactions will have to be carefully managed to maximise their relative benefits. The paper concludes that when managing climate change risks, there are many instances where adaptation and mitigation can be integrated at the operational level. However, significant gaps between our understanding of the benefits of adaptation and mitigation between local and global scales remain. Some of these may be addressed by matching demands for mitigation (for activities and locations where adaptive capacity will be exceeded) with the ability to supply that demand through localised mitigative capacity by means of globally integrated mechanisms.